Note: This is a live blog but with newest information at the bottom.

The Independent reports Exit polls point to no party gaining absolute majority.

Exit Estimates

Note the slightly higher estimates for the Northern League than Forza Italia.

If it's a hung election, I believe the existing coalitions will die and new ones will form.

Some Returns Coming In

Returns are now coming in, and some people are shocked.

From Bloomberg

Top Lega (Northern League) official Giancarlo Giorgetti speaking from party HQ:

"These are historic results for the Lega. We're picking up votes from North to South. We had 4 percent in 2013, now projections say 16 to 17 percent, perhaps more. We'll discuss things with our allies but this is a historic moment for the Lega."

Prior totals were for the Senate only where the Voting age is 25. Lower parliament voting age is 18. House projections now look similar according to La7, via Bloomberg

  • Five Star 32.1%
  • Democratic Party 19%
  • Northern League 17.5%
  • Forza Italia 14.1%

Shocking Defeat

Matteo Renzi will comment on the outcome once final data are in. He did, however, admit defeat: "This is a very clear and definite defeat for us. It is a result that is very clearly negative.''


Bloomberg FX editor Marco Bertacche made this comment. emphasis mine.

"We'll monitor reaction from the losers (likely Democratic Party secretary and former PM Renzi) and hints at post-vote coalition talks from the winners (Salvini, Five Star's Di Maio)"

Most of mainstream media is still in denial, referring to the Silvio Berlusconi-led center right.

Berlusconi looks doomed to come in fourth place.

Senate Projections

From Marco Bertacche

A new seats' projection from RAI/Opinio Italia for the 315-member Senate is out -- no coalition has a majority; eventual League-Five Star would have a majority.

Live Results

Here is a good Live Results feed.

Translation as of 8:26 PM central: "Triumph M5S, League exploit: populist forces over 50%. Renzi's Democratic Party collapses. Center-right the most voted"

Latest lead-in chart is from TGSky 24 Projection. Anecdotes in White are mine.

No Surprise Here

Four days ago I suggested Italy Election March 4: Consider a Surprise M5S + NL Alliance.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Five Star Lega Deal Takes Shape: Platform Includes Parallel Currency

Five Star and Lega want another three days to conclude talks. Neither Di Maio nor Salvini would be Prime Minister.

Collision Course With EU: Five Star and Lega Reach Deal

Five Star and Lega reached a deal but Italy's president must still approve and the party leader is still unannounced.

Five Star and Lega Coalition Reaches Agreement

The Five Star + Lega coalition is back in place. Italy's president Sergio Mattarella likely has little choice this time.

Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy

By a very slim margin Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement is the largest political party in Italy.

Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration Five-Star and Lega Have Coalition Green Light

Italy may become the "first European country led by populist forces with a strong anti-European rhetoric.”

It's Now Clear: Five Star Lega Deal is a Commitment to Leave the Eurozone

There was some confusion Tuesday over the exact wording of an Italian coalition agreement. The agreement is now clear.

Excessive Debt Procedures: EC Warns Italy over Debt, Five Star Movement Will Benefit

In a move bound to help Beppe Grillo’s Five Star movement, Brussels Warns Italy to Cut Public Debt by April.

Five Star and Lega Ask ECB to Cancel €250 Billion in Debt!

An agreement reached today between M5S and Lega contains an explosive request: Debt Cancellation!

Steen Jakobsen Italian Election Forecast: Two Winners

Saxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen thinks there will be two winners in tomorrow's election: Five Star and the Northern League.