Black Votes Matter
That’s a key message in the Georgia special elections where both Republican candidates went down in flames casting their fate with Trump while black voters came out overwhelmingly for the Democrats.
Unique Importance of Black Voters in Georgia
We won’t have detailed demographics information about this race in Georgia for a while, but it is virtually certain that the plurality — and perhaps even an outright majority — of Georgia voters for Ossoff and Warnock are Black.
Black turnout is important for Democrats in every state, since 9 in 10 Black voters back Democratic candidates. But the overall Black vote matters even more in Georgia, because around 30 percent of the state’s electorate is Black, compared to about 12 percent of the electorate nationally.
And notably, the Democrats ran a campaign for these Senate seats that reflected the large Black electorate in the state:
The above snip is from Perry Bacon Jr. on 538 Live Election Results.
Perry notes three things.
- They embraced the approach of Stacey Abrams, a Black woman, of really trying to boost turnout among voters of color, younger voters and those in the Atlanta area.
- They embraced two candidates with lots of ties to Atlanta’s Black community. In Warnock, the pastor of the church MLK and his father ran, but also in Ossoff, who worked for two Atlanta Black congressmen, the late John Lewis and Hank Johnson.
- And lastly, they embraced a kind of social justice message. Ossoff and Warnock talked a lot about voting rights and other “Black” issues on the campaign trail.
Comments by Dave Wasserman
It’s worth reflecting on a huge reason Dems swept Georgia this year: the Biden coalition is mainly African-Americans & suburban whites – two huge GA blocs.
Trump made big inroads w/ Hispanics, but there just aren’t very many Hispanic voters in GA.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
Wasserman is U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan CookPolitical Report.
Black Turnout
This was one of the more stunning results of the night for me. I didn’t think Clayton would shift this far to the left, but it’s another key story of the night. Black voters, once again, have come through in a big way for the Democratic Party. https://t.co/ybfRBqyBIN
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) January 6, 2021
Demographics
The disparities between Republican and Democratic white shares are evident but vary
sharply across states and not always in proportion to the whiteness of the Republican constituencies. In the white states of Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic coalitions are almost as white as those of Republicans.At the other extreme is Georgia, where there is a 54 percent gap between the white share of the state’s Republican coalition (at 87 percent) and its Democratic coalition (33 percent).
Note that among 2016 voters in Georgia,
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton received 86 percent of the votes of its substantial black voting population but only 24 percent among whites. Unsurprisingly, blacks comprised around 60 percent of Georgia’s Democratic voters but just 6 percent of Republican voters. Those unbalanced shares of black voters between the parties are projected to continue through 2036.
The above snips are from How Demographic Change Is Transforming the Republican and Democratic Parties.
Trump on Stacy Abrams
…This could also be very helpful to @SenDavidPerdue and @SenatorLoeffler. Why is he afraid of Stacey Abrams? We don’t need the ballots — we only need the signed envelopes!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 25, 2020
Providing everyone an opportunity for their franchise is NOT rigging an election. Voter suppression tactics are though. Republicans can only win it they cheat. Many have admitted in camera that when more people vote, the y lose.
— Mare (@marytswisc) January 2, 2021
If you read the related Politco Article you will see Trump was totally out of line.
2018 Flashback
Congratulations to Brian Kemp on becoming the new Governor of Georgia. Stacey Abrams fought brilliantly and hard – she will have a terrific political future! Brian was unrelenting and will become a great Governor for the truly Wonderful People of Georgia!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 17, 2018
Irony Abounds
Trump was correct on both counts.
Kemp served admirably and Abrams has made a huge difference boosting turnout among voters of color and younger voters especially in the Atlanta area.
Trump won 2016 going after disgruntled blue collar workers in Northern rust belt states.
Trump lost in 2020 by repeating tactics best used by an outsider.
Negative Coat Tails
The majority is sick of Trump. Proof is in the state legislatures and the House where Democrats did miserably although Biden won.
Biden had negative coat tails. He won because he was not Trump just as Trump won because he was not Hillary.
Looking Ahead
The future is not about Iowa, Vermont, or the Northern states. It’s about Georgia, Texas, the South, and changing demographics.
That’s not an endorsement for either party. It’s simple demographic reality.
Second Key Message of the Day
https://twitter.com/mattklewis/status/1346867773805383684
With the Trump splintering the party, the Republicans are now in complete disarray and denial.
For discussion, please see Republican Civil War as Trump Attacks the Surrender Caucus
Note my comment “Trump’s antics are increasingly likely to cost Republicans both Senate seats in Georgia.”
Trump is not the future of the Republican party, he is the sorry past. The same applies to Biden who is now at bat.
Mish
When they mailed out 40 million mail in ballots to buy the election with $40 million the game has been won. Everyone hates and nobody really one.
When they mailed out 40 million mail in ballots to buy the election with $40 million the game has been won. Everyone hates nobody one.
See what can happen when you capitalize the ‘b’ in black ethnicity!
How about primer on how the senate works with a 50/50 split
Filibuster is still alive since tht requires 60 votes to end. Manchin won’t vote to end
Harris breaks ties but does Schumer have the same power McConnell did in deciding what bills make it to the floor and setting parliarmentry procedure?
I had to look this up, no expert here… but it takes 2/3 of the Senate members who are both voting and present to end debate on changing Senate rules. So formally changing the rules isn’t an option.
The “nuclear option” only needs a majority, it’s basically a way to work around the rule.
Google for a brookings-dot-edu article with the name what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it
Republican legislators showing up to DC for vote today are under fire from their constituents..
Commentator Abby Phillips…
“This is a Republican party who has nurtured and fed this creature that is now about to eat them alive. They’ve lost control over a base that doesn’t trust them, doesn’t want them to do the right thing… /1
… doesn’t want them to follow the Constitution — and they can’t do anything about it… There is a Trump base who wants this [chaos] to happen today, but they can’t be reasoned with anymore, and the Republican party in Washington — the people who “know better,” — /2
— they don’t have control over this anymore. How do you lead when you don’t have the respect of your constituents, when you don’t have the moral authority? … When they go home to their districts, their constituents believe the lies… /3
… Their constituents want them to do things that they know are unconstitutional. And they can’t push back against it — in their view. Because they’re not going to change those minds…. This is the consequence of living in an imaginary world full of lies and disinformation.” /4
Believing lies and manipulated information are necessary tools, a sharp advantage, only destroy the base of your strength, in the end. /5
Wow even with operation red map the republicans cant win.
MMT to the moon. Think I’ll sell fiatskies and buy “Things.”
Positive Cash Flo Real Estate, Dividend Paying Stocks (Especially defense related industries, now the war party is back), Commodities, Energy, Materials etc.
Gonna take a lot of “green” diesel to “Build it back better.”
TINA, the way to go since 2010.
I hope Trump keeps interfering in elections for as long as he lives. Lol.
yeah, my thoughts are that Dems won’t prosecute Trump.
if they put an end to Trump, they’re doing the GOP a big favor.
Biden owe Stacey Abrams big time. She made Georgia her project. Helped deliver the state to him and is the reason Democrats captured two Senate seats. She tapped into a demographic group that wasn’t voting and delivered it. She will be rewarded with a post in the Biden administration. Biden knows he owes her.
Biden should thank Trump and others for encouraging some Republicans not to vote as well. Trump has turned into a train wreck for the Republican party. Next on tap: turn Texas blue in 2022.
I sure hope Stacey Abrams gets rewarded big.
Stacey Abrams deserves a medal, so do all of the Republicans resisting Trump.
Even with operation red map the republicans lost. I hope this breaks the grip mitch has shaping the gop. Hes very good at taking corporate money and holding representatives hostage for campaign funds. At the same time i hope the dems dont go crazy far left. Im tired of the whole team red vs team blue and tow the party line mentality.
“My favorite speech by Dr. Martin Luther King is not his extraordinary “I Have a Dream” delivered at the 1963 March on Washington. I actually prefer his lesser-known 1966 speech delivered in Kingstree, South Carolina, where his audience gathered in folding chairs and he addressed listeners from a makeshift podium, asking them to “March on Ballot Boxes.” On a damp Mother’s Day morning, the almost entirely black gathering heard him lay out his case, arguing that the ability to change the legislative agenda—and by extension their very lives—began with registering to vote. Like a golden ticket, the act of voter registration opens the process of democracy, and without it, citizens are just aspirants at the gate.”
I’m not so sure that the modern Republican party is capable of escaping Trumpism.
The Republican party pre-Trump was trending older, but has brought in an energized younger demographic with Trump.
The most ambitious of the Republican future candidates have tied themselves to Trump and so the Trump balloon must remain inflated for their purposes.
The problem is that I don’t think there is room for any permanent threats to Trump’s primacy in the party. In fact, I could believe that Ivanka is probably next in line to be the candidate of choice after Donald Trump.
Actually, all polling cross tabs that I read (many) this year showed that Orangeman’s biggest support came from the 45-55 age group.
Never underestimate the speed at which a politician can run from what is no longer in favor.
It’s working in Europe, right now, and parties go where the energy is…
…These candidates are part of a growing attempt by Europe’s far-right parties to gear their anti-migration, euroskeptic message to the young, with everything from beer nights for adults and bouncy castles for kids to an outsized presence on social media, the Associated Press has found. Young European voters are responding with a rightward shift sometimes faster and farther than their elders — as illustrated by voting results or party rolls from Italy, France, Spain and Austria.
The trend could have major implications for this month’s elections , which decide the makeup of the European Parliament as well as some national governments, as in Belgium.
“The far right has made a very explicit effort to pander to younger audiences. They’ve essentially rebranded themselves,” said Julia Ebner, a researcher with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue , a left-leaning think tank. “Far-right political parties have been most active in engaging with social media users.”
The far right has also succeeded at picking up on existing grievances and fears among young people and at using their language and cultural reference points, she said.
It’s a significant change from where the far right found itself in Europe’s postwar era: identified with the Nazis and a Holocaust that killed 6 million Jews, marginalized by governments and eclipsed by a unifying Europe.
Opponents say today’s far-right candidates have given new window-dressing to old racist beliefs and an implicit call for violence, pushing a pro-Christian, anti-Islam ideology that Belgium’s security services describe as “extreme right in a white collar.” Only now they’re appealing to a demographic with no memories of where extremist beliefs once led the continent: to a world war that left almost all of Europe in rubble.
Every country defines and measures its young voters slightly differently. But the trend is unmistakable.
Across Europe, the right has gained ground with the electorate in general, but its strength among young voters, who traditionally lean left, has come as a surprise, according to poll estimates. In Italy, 17% of voters aged 18 to 34 voted for the League party in 2018, compared to just 5% in 2013. In Austria , 30% of the youngest voters chose the Freedom Party in 2017, up from 22% in 2013, making it the most popular party among those ages 16 to 29. And in Germany , the AfD’s gains were notable while support from the youngest voters for the Green Party barely changed. France’s vote showed similar trends….
What a depressing thought.
I think there is a lot of backlash against the attacks on so-called “white privilege” by the anti-racist activist crowd that has gained ascendancy in the Democratic Party platform.
Don’t get me wrong….there is racism, and it would be nice if we had less of it….and I’m in favor of having less of it….but the absolute gall of the BLM’ers with their borrowed Marxist tactics is not helping anything.
We have too much extremism..too much willingness on the part of young leaders to promote violence….to expect a good outcome from this simmering war of race and class. I doubt white 55 year olds are going to vote for Democrats while they talk with a straight face about reparations for slavery……and “fixing” STEM education by promoting and publishing deserving “scientists of color”.
You can’t fix problems you don’t really even understand….and the current understanding of racism among academics and the liberal elites leaves a lot to be desired.
Good readout. IMHO….I think most of the voters will be disappointed. A lot of promises are always made but it will be wall street that will decide future laws.
What will be the result….there is angry energy on both sides and the Trumpism , BLM, and Antifa will probably not go away. IMHO….Trumpism is actually populism. I have visited rally’s on both sides and the populism crowd have positive energy and rally to make things better while the other side tends to want to tear down the establishment with the hope this will make things better. You have to go with the tactics that work for your cause. People get tired of negativity….and that is all Trump has lately. But somebody who can focus the populism crowd again with hope has a demographic ready for a leader. Antifa will probably always have the negative tear things down as they want to make changes happen and they feel their voices are not heard and this makes the message heard. They really do not have a political leader per say as no politician wants to touch this directly.
IMHO…..The energy behind these movements are the rise of inequality. Populism and a lot of rural America sees this white picket fence home slipping away. The Antifa are young and many times live in the city and see now future of good jobs. The BLM wants to fight the lingering poverty and social issues that are not getting better. Will any of these things change in the next 4 years or 8 years. This has been a trend that will continue.
I hope in wrong, but I suspect the dems next moves are to eliminate the filibuster, add DC and PR as states, pack the supreme court and get rid of the electoral college. Essentially making them dictators.
Only dictators if they do away with election results because they don’t like them.
It’s a democracy, doncha’ know.
You know, if the Republicans had policies beyond subtle (and not so subtle) racism, fear and ignorace of fact and science, they might have a future.
Well didn’t the Rs do away with the filibuster on judges? Reed did it only for SC appointees, right?
What seems to be a larger problem than the filibuster/60 vote thing is changing the rules of the senate to prevent the majority leader from a) always being first and b) always allowed to fill the amendment tree.
Their next move is amnesty for 10MM+ illegals and $2000 checks.
The rest… was rhetoric from both Parties and we’ll need to let the dust settle to figure out what they’re really going to do.
Eliminating the filibuster will bite them in the ass, probably within 2 years. Same with packing SCOTUS (but 4+ years down the road for that).
Dems know lots of the campaign rhetoric would mean “war” with the GOP. The left wing Dems think they want war. The centrists are in control and they don’t want the repercussions of all-out war with the GOP.
Joe Manchin, possibly the most powerful person in the country for the next two years, will not agree to eliminating filibuster.
The Republican Party needs to take a long hard look internally and determine whether it will return to its traditional values or continue to succumb to Trumpism. As a registered Republican I fervently hope it is the former.
Good riddance Mcconnell
It just shows that when Trump can’t win, he can still break things. Trump was a Trojan Horse gift to the Republican Party. He has shattered and destroyed it, and gotten many top Republicans to go along with attempts to destroy the Constitution. No top Republican who has supported any of these crazy ideas deserves to ever be in public office again.
It’s time for the Republican Party to begin a youth movement. They have some young leaders in the states, and still have grass roots support. They need to rebuild from the ground up. Allowing people like Trump and Cruz to dictate their future will doom them.
Interesting irony, Democrat Jon Ossoff at 33, the youngest senator elected since Joe Biden in 1973.
I think you will see more of the same as the Millennials start to go to the polls. They are bigger than the boomer demographics I believe.
Boomers are dying and Gen X is small.
It’s time for the helicoptered kids to take control and the rest of us to lay in the bed we made.
Inflation Truthers link to awealthofcommonsense.com
Got assets and Medicare? Got a college degree already? Kids got a degree?
You’re golden.
After all, nobody else needs to go to college when they can get an iGadget for nearly free…and GMO food for a pittance.
Oh, wait, in Texas the children of military vets get free tuition anyway….it’s just the rest of us who have to pay. I forgot.
The place the author is sort of stretching the truth is on mortgage payments…..yes they are low….as long as the Fed can keep interest rates near zero.
Rent inflation is said to be 2.64%/year averaged since 1913….which means if you paid $100 for rent in 1913, the equivalent dwelling now would rent for about $1650/month.
Hey,,,,iPads for dinner.
Trump continued to pile on, insisting in a statement late Tuesday, hours after a lunch with the vice president, that Pence had not informed him that he possessed no power to overturn the will of voters. “He can decertify the results or send them back to the states for change and certification,” Trump said. “He can also decertify the illegal and corrupt results and send them to the House of Representatives for the one vote for one state tabulation.“
Now we return your attention the ongoing coup attempt by President Trump, that irascible, beloved TV star and ladies man.
He’ll just tell the the Electoral College “You’re fired!””
Get those writers busy fixing the script.
Good luck with that.
President Trump on Tuesday said he and Vice President Mike Pence are “in total agreement” that the vice president “has the power to act” and block the certification of the 2020 presidential election results on Wednesday.
The president’s comments came after The New York Times on Tuesday reported that Pence, during a conversation with Trump, told him that he had no power to block the certification of the election results during the joint session of Congress on Wednesday.
I’d say the Ossoff race was so close that narcist Trump’s attempted vote tampering (and 18 calls to do so!) IN Georgia just days before was quite likely more than enough to cost the GOP this race.
There is no question in my mind that Trump blew up the Republican Senatorial races in Georgia on purpose. It was payback to McConnell, who stood up to Trump, and now will become Minority leader.
Very well said. I think you make some excellent points. Demographics matter.
Better organizing matters too.
Getting people out to vote matters. It’s difficult to motivate people, especially less educated voters…..they can be brought to the polls two ways…..as we are seeing. They can be led, prodded and cajoled by good organizers like Stacey Abrams….or they can be attracted by the personality and celebrity of a populist like Trump….the “stick it to the man” vote….the anti-establishment ticket.
I continue to be amazed that these races are so close though. The power of ordinary people is reduced because they’re divided almost perfectly into two warring factions.
What we still have in DC and will have, is government that is under corporate control.
The Republicans give lip service to fiscal constraint and “religious freedom” and white middle class moral values………while the Dems give lip service to fairness, diversity and inclusion.
Neither party is sincere about their platform. It’s all window dressing.
And money talks and bullshit walks…and we continue as before, I expect.
In all the best countries people’s votes completely align with their ethnic identity. LOL
Mine doesn’t……but I expect it’t because I was accidentally allowed to get an education. But yes, ethnic identity plays bigly…..social identity too though….my children’s generation has been greatly influenced by a left-leaning school system.
A 13% black minority wouldn’t have a voice without all the white guilt in the university educated crowd…..and the children of the white elites who know they’re born with a silver spoon.
…government that is under corporate control…
Is that OK with you?
“Socialism” was one of the most potent words in the races just completed.
However, virtually every government agency out there was started with the idea of countering the unfettered greed and rapacity of the monied. It was protection for the underclass. Many people were too ignorant to know that and bought into the word-cloud of our monied masters and their public buffoons–blythely ensuring the continued prosperity of the prosperous.
We have an increasingly motivated underclass that will not quail for long at the word “socialism”.
No, I am in favor of FAR LESS corporate control. Believe me, I am.
But it’s about the money they have……and the way it perverts our elections. Until that changes (or socialists…or even libertarians….get much better at fund raising) it’s the money that will continue to dominate American politics on both sides of the aisle.
America is run by Big Tech, Big Insurance, Big Pharma, and the Military Industrial Complex.
To be quite honest, I don’t get bent out of shape about what we call our system. The problem is that every country in the world is ruled by oligarchs….the US is an oligarchy..if we elect socialist candidates it’s still quite possible for that to persist…as it does in many parts of Europe.
What matters is having benevolent leadership that looks out for the citizens….all of them….if we could get that, I’d be happy to live in a monarchy, if that’s what it took to get us there.
I think our system was pretty good until TV changed everything…..and then…..only the rich and connected could get elected to high office. Some of us were hoping that the internet could change that…..but it hasn’t. If anything, Web 2.0 has made it worse.
You might add a group to that list of powerful interests: Civil servants. Government workers.
I’d put them above all the other players. But, what scale are we using?
Ditto….money talks. That is what rules at the end of the day.
IMHO… A lot of social programs have come about because of the economist John Adams and his invisible hand the government should use to prevent social unrest, riots, upheavals. He basically says you need social programs for the poor or you have a French revolution. A lot of super rich Billionaires will be jumping on this wagon to protect their wealth and have the government make the growing lower class happy with MMT.
I have not answer….but you can see all around you as industries become monopolies. So much of local community money that used to circle around from business to business now leaves the community and goes to Walmarts Headquarters or Amazons headquarters, or Facebook headquarters or wall street in the form of dividends. These local communities now need the help of government handouts to keep the standard of living from not collapsing. Thus the talk of MMT and loan forgiveness.
Watch Mark Blyth video here or any of this others. He nailed why Trump would win in 2016. Global Trumpism and the future of the world economy
If you have not heard him speak….he talks in layman’s terms and is very funny.
He don’t talk like he’s from around here…..
Just kidding. He’s been on my radar for a while. I think we agree completely.
It’s much easier to think about UBI if you’re a billionaire who pays less tax than I do….and as Trump’s tax returns prove that it isn’t impossible to be rather rich and not pay much tax.
Actually the opposite, white voters are the reason Democrats won. Mississippi has a higher proportion of black voters but Democrats keep losing there because they can’t win enough whites.
That’s because hardly anyone from other states moves to Mississippi.