Black Votes Matter

That's a key message in the Georgia special elections where both Republican candidates went down in flames casting their fate with Trump while black voters came out overwhelmingly for the Democrats.

Unique Importance of Black Voters in Georgia

We won’t have detailed demographics information about this race in Georgia for a while, but it is virtually certain that the plurality — and perhaps even an outright majority — of Georgia voters for Ossoff and Warnock are Black.

Black turnout is important for Democrats in every state, since 9 in 10 Black voters back Democratic candidates. But the overall Black vote matters even more in Georgia, because around 30 percent of the state’s electorate is Black, compared to about 12 percent of the electorate nationally. 

And notably, the Democrats ran a campaign for these Senate seats that reflected the large Black electorate in the state:

The above snip is from Perry Bacon Jr. on 538 Live Election Results.

Perry notes three things.

  1. They embraced the approach of Stacey Abrams, a Black woman, of really trying to boost turnout among voters of color, younger voters and those in the Atlanta area.
  2. They embraced two candidates with lots of ties to Atlanta’s Black community. In Warnock, the pastor of the church MLK and his father ran, but also in Ossoff, who worked for two Atlanta Black congressmen, the late John Lewis and Hank Johnson.
  3. And lastly, they embraced a kind of social justice message. Ossoff and Warnock talked a lot about voting rights and other “Black” issues on the campaign trail.

Comments by Dave Wasserman

Wasserman is U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan CookPolitical Report.

Black Turnout

Demographics

The disparities between Republican and Democratic white shares are evident but vary  sharply across states and not always in proportion to the whiteness of the Republican constituencies. In the white states of Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic coalitions are almost as white as those of Republicans.

At the other extreme is Georgia, where there is a 54 percent gap between the white share of the state’s Republican coalition (at 87 percent) and its Democratic coalition (33 percent). 

 Note that among 2016 voters in Georgia,  Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton received 86 percent of the votes of its substantial black voting population but only 24 percent among whites. Unsurprisingly, blacks comprised around 60 percent of Georgia’s Democratic voters but just 6  percent of Republican voters. Those unbalanced shares of black voters between the parties are projected to continue through 2036.

The above snips are from How Demographic Change Is Transforming the Republican and Democratic Parties.

Trump on Stacy Abrams

If you read the related Politco Article you will see Trump was totally out of line. 

2018 Flashback

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Irony Abounds

Trump was correct on both counts.

Kemp served admirably and Abrams has made a huge difference boosting turnout among voters of color and younger voters especially in the Atlanta area.

Trump won 2016 going after disgruntled blue collar workers in Northern rust belt states. 

Trump lost in 2020 by repeating tactics best used by an outsider.

Negative Coat Tails

The majority is sick of Trump. Proof is in the state legislatures and the House where Democrats did miserably although Biden won.

Biden had negative coat tails. He won because he was not Trump just as Trump won because he was not Hillary.

Looking Ahead

The future is not about Iowa, Vermont, or the Northern states. It's about Georgia, Texas, the South, and changing demographics.

That's not an endorsement for either party. It's simple demographic reality. 

Second Key Message of the Day

With the Trump splintering the party, the Republicans are now in complete disarray and denial. 

For discussion, please see Republican Civil War as Trump Attacks the Surrender Caucus

Note my comment "Trump's antics are increasingly likely to cost Republicans both Senate seats in Georgia."

Trump is not the future of the Republican party, he is the sorry past. The same applies to Biden who is now at bat. 

Mish 

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