Field Reduced to Four
Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race on Sunday.
Tom Steyer did so on Saturday.
Amy Klobuchar dropped out today and endorsed Biden. This move changes my Super Tuesday Forecast made hours ago.
Question of the Day: Did Klobuchar Make a Deal with Biden?
My answer is yes: She was running for VP all along, and smartly so. See the link for discussion.
Hours ago I made a Fearless Forecast: What to Expect on Super Tuesday
Let's redo the math in light of Klobuchar's endorsement and a couple of new polls. Also note that Klobuchar is traveling with Biden and campaigning for him in Texas.
Bernie Sanders' big hope is California.
The CNN poll, if accurate, would net Sanders nearly every delegate in California.
I now see little chance of that happening.
The Emerson poll is new today. I did not have that in my previous forecast. The trend for Biden is now firmly established and Klobuchar's endorsement will help.
I am now looking at a predominantly 3-way split with Bloomberg not getting 15% statewide but getting 15% in some districts. This helps Biden and Warren and hurts Bloomberg.
Bloomberg is fading in the recent polls. He could walk away with nothing in California. If so, Biden could do much better than I project.
My California Call
- Sanders: 35 - 42% of the delegates - 175 delegates
- Biden: 26 - 31% of the delegates - 129 delegates
- Warren: 18 - 21% of the Delegates - 87 delegates
- Bloomberg: 13 - 6% of the delegates - 25 delegates
Biden and to a lesser extent Bloomberg will pick up delegates from Buttigieg. The key factor once again is whether or not Warren and Bloomberg hit the threshold. I suspect warren will win some delegates but fall short of 15% statewide.
As a result of Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing Biden, I now expect Biden to win the state in a close race and a 4-way split.
My Texas Call
- Sanders: 29 - 32% of the delegates - 73 delegates
- Biden: 30 - 34% of the delegates - 78 delegates
- Warren: 15 - 15% of the Delegates - 34 delegates
- Bloomberg: 17 - 19% of the delegates - 43 delegates
These polls are a bit stale. I expect a big bounce for Biden here. There is one new poll that has Sanders in the lead but it is before Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out. To reflect the unexplained Sanders bounce I will leave my forecast intact.
My Virginia Call
- Sanders: 25 - 35% of the delegates - 35 delegates
- Biden: 30 - 39% of the delegates - 39 delegates
- Bloomberg: 18 - 26% of the delegates - 25 delegates
With a Biden bounce, he should win North Carolina. And with Klobuchar dropping out I will bump up Biden's margin of victory but also bump up sanders as well.
My North Carolina Call
- Sanders: 25 - 35% of the delegates - 39 delegates
- Biden: 33 - 46% of the delegates - 50 delegates
- Bloomberg: 16 - 19% of the delegates - 21 delegates
Previously I commented "I expect a bit of a Klobuchar Bounce"
I now expect Sanders to carry the state but in a 3-way race not 2-way. Warren and Biden now get delegates. Neither did in my previous forecast.
My Minnesota Call
- Sanders: 29 - 46% of the delegates - 35 delegates
- Biden: 18 - 29% of the delegates - 22 delegates
- Warren 16 - 25% of the delegates - 18 delegates
Once again a Buttigieg dropout helps Biden. So does Klobuchar. But how much? I envision a 4-way split and a surprise win for Warren. I previously had this as a tie between Warren and Sanders.
My Massachusetts Call
- Sanders: 23 - 36% of the delegates - 33 delegates
- Warren: 25 - 40% of the delegates - 36 delegates
- Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 11 delegates
- Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 11 delegates
If Biden and Bloomberg do not top 15% in every district they will not get 15% of the delegates.
My Colorado Call
- Sanders: 27 - 42% of the delegates - 28 delegates
- Warren: 19 - 34% of the delegates - 23 delegates
- Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates
- Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates
If Biden and Bloomberg do not top 15% in every district they will not get 15% of the delegates. That is my call, unchanged from earlier today.
Sanders: 175 CA + 73 TX + 35 VA + 39 NC + 35 MN +33 MA + 28 CO = 418
Biden: 129 CA + 78 TX + 39 VA + 50NC +22MN +11 MA + 8 CO = 337
Warren 87 CA + 34 TX +18MN + 36MA + 23 CO = 198
Bloomberg 25 CA + 43 TX + 25 VA + 21 NC +11 MA +8 CO = 133
Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Maine and Vermont are also Super Tuesday states.
I expect Biden to win Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Sanders will win Utah. Maine, and Vermont.
I now estimate Biden another 140 out of those extra states, Sanders another 85, Bloomberg another 32, and Warren another 12.
Super Tuesday Delegate Totals
- Sanders: was 519 now 503
- Biden: was 432 now 477
- Warren: was 146 now 210
- Bloomberg: was 203 now 155
- Klobuchar: was 45 now 0
Sanders vs Not Sanders
- Sanders: was 519 now 503
- Not Sanders: was 826 now 842
Liberals vs Moderates
- Sanders + Warren = 713
- Moderates = 632
Sanders: CA, MN, CO, UT, ME, VT (6)
Biden: TX, VA, NC, AL, OK, AK, TN (7)
Warren: MA (1)
If Sanders wins MA and Biden TX, it would be 7 states to each of Biden and Sanders, with Sanders getting a small plurality and no one coming close to a majority.
The biggest shift is to Biden and Warren with Bernie hardly changing. Warren picked up in some newer polls, especially California and I now have her winning Massachusetts and picking up some delegates in Minnesota as well.
It is possible Biden wins the most delegates in addition to the most states.
If anything close to what I project happens, the odds of a contested convention will skyrocket.
One final note: We find out every state but California tomorrow due to huge numbers of mail-in votes that only have to be postmarked by tomorrow.
That fact helps Biden in Super-Tuesday discussion.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock