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Biden Lead Steady

Quinnipiac reports Biden Keeps Above 50 Percent Mark With Steady Lead Over Trump.

Key Details

  1. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52 - 42 percent among likely voters in a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Those numbers are unchanged from a September 2nd national poll when Biden led Trump 52 - 42 percent.
  2. Democrats back Biden 96 - 2 percent, independents back him 49 - 41 percent, and Republicans back Trump 91 - 7 percent.
  3. Ninety-four percent of likely voters who selected a candidate for president say their minds are made up, while 5 percent say they might change their minds.

Shrinking Pool of Undecideds

Biden's lead is steady in national polls, but that is not where the election will be won or lost.

The key detail in the survey is the shrinking pool of people whose minds are not already made up.

Importance of the Undecided Voter

In 2017, Nate Silver commented on the State of the , Undecided Voter heading into the 2016 election.

In 2016, Clinton’s lead was considerably more fragile than it appeared from national polls. Not only was she underperforming in the Electoral College because of the way her demographic coalition was configured (see the first article in this series for more about that) but a much larger number of voters — about 13 percent on Election Day and as many as 20 percent at earlier stages of the campaign — were either undecided or said they planned to vote for third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Those undecided voters made Clinton’s lead much less safe and they broke strongly toward Donald Trump at the end of the race. Trump won voters who decided in the last week of the campaign by a 59-30 margin in Wisconsin, 55-38 in Florida, 54-37 in Pennsylvania and 50-39 in Michigan, according to exit polls, which was enough to flip the outcome of those four states and their 75 combined electoral votes.

Where are the Undecideds?

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On October 25, 2016, Nate Silver asked Where Are The Undecided Voters?

About 15 percent of the electorate isn’t yet committed to Clinton or Trump, as compared to just 5 percent who weren’t committed to President Obama or Mitt Romney at this point in 2012. That’s one of the reasons why our models still give Trump an outside chance at victory. In theory, with Clinton at “only” 46 percent of the vote, he could beat her by winning almost all of the undecided and third-party voters

Overall, Clinton’s chances are 85 percent in our polls-only forecast and 83 percent in polls-plus, not meaningfully changed over the past few days.

Theory happened aided by an FBI twist.

2016 Comparison Flaws

  • There were not enough state polls.
  • 15% undecided voters. 
  • Non-college educated white voters were undersampled. Trump won two-thirds of white voters without college degrees to overcome huge problems elsewhere.
  • Hillary was as disliked as Trump whereas Biden is viewed much more favorably.

FBI Bombshell

It still took a last second bombshell announcement by James Comey to seal the fate. 

Consider 4 Pieces of Evidence Showing FBI Director James Comey Cost Clinton the Election.

Let's not mince words. Clinton is responsible for her loss. However, Trump would not have won without Comey.

Many people expect a 2016 repeat, but there are too many key difference between now and 2016 to believe as many do, "The polls are wrong". 

The more pertinent questions regard Trump and Republican interference in mail-in voting and what Trump might do if no victor is declared election evening.

Mish