Biden Lead Steady
Quinnipiac reports Biden Keeps Above 50 Percent Mark With Steady Lead Over Trump.
Key Details
- Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52 – 42 percent among likely voters in a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Those numbers are unchanged from a September 2nd national poll when Biden led Trump 52 – 42 percent.
- Democrats back Biden 96 – 2 percent, independents back him 49 – 41 percent, and Republicans back Trump 91 – 7 percent.
- Ninety-four percent of likely voters who selected a candidate for president say their minds are made up, while 5 percent say they might change their minds.
Shrinking Pool of Undecideds
Biden’s lead is steady in national polls, but that is not where the election will be won or lost.
The key detail in the survey is the shrinking pool of people whose minds are not already made up.
Importance of the Undecided Voter
In 2017, Nate Silver commented on the State of the , Undecided Voter heading into the 2016 election.
In 2016, Clinton’s lead was considerably more fragile than it appeared from national polls. Not only was she underperforming in the Electoral College because of the way her demographic coalition was configured (see the first article in this series for more about that) but a much larger number of voters — about 13 percent on Election Day and as many as 20 percent at earlier stages of the campaign — were either undecided or said they planned to vote for third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Those undecided voters made Clinton’s lead much less safe and they broke strongly toward Donald Trump at the end of the race. Trump won voters who decided in the last week of the campaign by a 59-30 margin in Wisconsin, 55-38 in Florida, 54-37 in Pennsylvania and 50-39 in Michigan, according to exit polls, which was enough to flip the outcome of those four states and their 75 combined electoral votes.
Where are the Undecideds?
On October 25, 2016, Nate Silver asked Where Are The Undecided Voters?
About 15 percent of the electorate isn’t yet committed to Clinton or Trump, as compared to just 5 percent who weren’t committed to President Obama or Mitt Romney at this point in 2012. That’s one of the reasons why our models still give Trump an outside chance at victory. In theory, with Clinton at “only” 46 percent of the vote, he could beat her by winning almost all of the undecided and third-party voters.
Overall, Clinton’s chances are 85 percent in our polls-only forecast and 83 percent in polls-plus, not meaningfully changed over the past few days.
Theory happened aided by an FBI twist.
2016 Comparison Flaws
- There were not enough state polls.
- 15% undecided voters.
- Non-college educated white voters were undersampled. Trump won two-thirds of white voters without college degrees to overcome huge problems elsewhere.
- Hillary was as disliked as Trump whereas Biden is viewed much more favorably.
FBI Bombshell
It still took a last second bombshell announcement by James Comey to seal the fate.
Consider 4 Pieces of Evidence Showing FBI Director James Comey Cost Clinton the Election.
Let’s not mince words. Clinton is responsible for her loss. However, Trump would not have won without Comey.
Many people expect a 2016 repeat, but there are too many key difference between now and 2016 to believe as many do, “The polls are wrong”.
The more pertinent questions regard Trump and Republican interference in mail-in voting and what Trump might do if no victor is declared election evening.
Mish
The Democrats are not going to be able to steal this election regardless of how many lies they tell, and how much they cheat. But that will not stop Mish from trying….
I read that Trump’s support among Blacks and Hispanics is significantly higher now than in 2016. It doesn’t jive with him being down by 10%. Something doesn’t add up.
When you poll less Republicans than voted in 2016 and most other elections you get poll results that show Biden with a huge lead.
This poll had 29% Republicans and some polls have had 24-25% Republicans and in 2016 according to exit polls 33% of voters were Republicans.
In reality Biden lead is most likely 2-3% if the polls had proper samples and this is mostly from California and New York so in swing states it is a coin flip who wins and Biden might have a total breakdown in the debates.
The debates are key. If Biden truly has dementia it is a progressive disease and totally incurable. There will be no hiding it in over 90 minutes on the stage.
You don’t have to listen to the polls. Just listen to Republican representatives themselves:
For those that have never been to Dayton suburbs or don’t know it, this is shocking. It has been traditionally heavily Republican for decades because of the air force base and heavily dominated defense industry in the area. My wife grew up near this area so it is shocking. Trump will lose Ohio cleanly based on this.
Journalists pick who they interview so they can get whatever angle they want for a story.
I could interview people who think Democrats are pedophiles who eat babies and still plan to vote for them but that would not necessarily make it so in the larger picture.
It is very common tactic from media to influence people’s voting intentions with news by picking who you interview.
In 2016 media was full of stories about never-Trumpers who have voted for Republicans all their lives but now will vote for Hillary Clinton because Trump said bad words.
There are and were people like that but in miniscule numbers and after article after article about the phenomenon it was clear that it was a brainwashing campaign because people are naturally interested in doing what others are also doing.
That brainwashing failed and will most likely fail again.
Next Joe Biden supporting media will probably find coal miners supporting Joe Biden…
If Trump somehow pulls this off, I fully expect Don Jr. to “run” in 2024 and complete the full Putin-ization of America. 2016 may have been the last real election we ever had but there is redacted evidence that Trump colluded with Russia via Wikileaks. We now know Deustche bank also funneled money to Trump from Russia. So the last fair Presidential election in America may have been in 2012. Congratulations to Vladimir Putin as he is probably sitting somewhere laughing thinking about how to poison Navalny again. He is in firm control of the world now.
Actually there is ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE that Trump colluded with Russia.
Mueller Special Counsel spent years and tens of millions of dollars and found NO COLLUSION.
FBI did NOT even check the DNC email server that was claimed to have been hacked by Russia and instead trusted the word of Crowdstrike which is a firm founded by Democrats and full of Democrats.
The Crowdstrike boss admitted under oath that he had NO EVIDENCE Russia hacked the email server.
Assange stated that Russia did not give the emails to him and later hinted that it was Seth Rich the DNC worker who was shot dead on the street in a “robbery” soon after the DNC “hack” and and his wallet with money and his phone was not robbed so it was an odd “robbery” and police still have no clues and no suspects.
Also your Deutche Bank claim is total BS.
Deutche Bank is Germany’s and Europe’s biggest bank and does NOT need Russian money to give Trump a loan and Deutche Bank has stated they securitized the loans they gave to Trump soon after giving them so the money to give the loan came from Deutche Bank’s securitization business and after the Trump loans were securitized with other loans and sold as investments Deutche Bank used the money to give somebody else a loan.
Also the Mueller claim that Russia influenced the election because some russian company spent 100k on Facebook ads is laughable since Democrats, Republicans, the Clinton and Trump campaigns and all the Super PAC’s and organized labor and teachers unions etc spent about 2 billion aka 2000 million on the 2016 election.
On top of that Trump got nonstop free media with his rallies that even CNN showed live and all of Trumps statements that were repeated on loop and especially the elevator speech was repeated all the time for months.
When the Russian company sent lawyers to fight the Mueller claim Mueller backed away quickly and said he is dropping charges because “sources and methods” might be compromised.
Hillary and Bill Clinton were OWNED by Russia because Hillary Clinton allowed the Uranium One deal where Russian government owned Russian company bought American uranium mines and deposits and consequently the sellers that just got paid by Russia donated hundreds of millions to Clinton Foundation that now uses the money to pay salary and expenses for Chelsea and Chelsea has been named the third person on the Clinton Foundation so it is now Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton foundation.
Bill Clinton went to Russia to make 1 hour speech and got paid 500k by Russian government.
Also Biden is WHOLLY OWNED by China because of course Chinese have Biden on tape for corruption when Joe Biden flew of Air Force 2 to China as VP and took his son Hunter Biden with him who got 1500 million from Chinese government owned Bank of China.
Obama REFUSED to sell any guns or missiles to Ukraine to defend against Russia and Trump has sold Ukraine guns and Javelin Missiles.
I don’t trust the polls at all. And although I know damn good and well all powerful countries use social media to influence foreign elections, I never thought the Trump campaign was in any kind of deep conspiracy with Putin to win the 2016 election.
But the Deutschebank loans? That is a more interesting matter, and I don’t think you have the story quite right there. I’ve read a lot about that, and I think Trump’s loans were probably guaranteed with Russian private money. Does that alone make him a crook? No….but with Trump…anyone who has followed his career throughout his life, even as a casual observer, can see a pattern of bending and breaking rules and lawyering up and screwing most of the people who ever worked for him….sooner or later.
Eddie, please go wrap some more tinfoil hat around your head because I thin the russians can still hear your thoughts.
Democrats have NOTHING BUT LIES and hate against Trump to offer.
Deutche Bank does NOT need Russian private money. The US Deutche Bank can get all the money they want from Fed and if that is not enough they can get some more from ECB and Deutche Bank has stated publicly they securitized and sold the Trump loans among other loans and most likely to American 401k’s or some US investors chasing yield.
Do you understand how finance even works?
I never said DB NEEDED Russian money. Trump needed help floating the loans , because he was persona non grata in any US bank.
Resorting to cheap insults is pretty silly. Spare me your all caps, dude. You have the right to believe whatever alternative reality you want. No skin off my nose.
Deutche Bank’s US subsidiary is an US bank.
Trump did not float any loans, Trump got loans from Deutche Bank and they then wrapped them together with other Real Estate loans and sold the investment product to US investors chasing yield.
I think you do NOT understand how finance works which is odd if you are a regular Mish reader.
Say Hi to the Democrats social media team when you have your Zoom call sharing all the current Democrat talking points/lies about Trump that the DNC wants you to parrot around the net.
You don’t have access to the redacted documents. I do. End of story.
Nice to have top staff member from one of the Senate Intelligence Committee Democrats writing on MishTalk…
That is the only way you could have read the documents you keep blabbing about unredacted or the other option I just thought about is that you can be also sitting in a cubicle at NSA or CIA and that they have decided to influence US elections.
You watch too much fox news. They live in your head rent free. Literally every post from you is line for line from Fox News since 2016. I wouldn’t be surprised if your account was a Russian bot.
FactsonJoe you nailed it on the head. I would like to add one more point, in today’s climate it would be dangerous to tell pollsters the truth. It would endanger your property, job, family, and possibly your life. You don’t know who the person is asking the question. Keep that in mind the next time you see a poll that suits your narrative.
“Congratulations to Vladimir Putin as he is probably sitting somewhere laughing thinking about how to poison Navalny again.”
You’ve really nailed it. Putin spends all of his time thinking about a guy with no political following or clout, and is funded by foreign NGOs, who Russians think is irrelevant. Putin is thinking, more Novichok, even though it is the worst poison in the world.
It looks like the polls have corrected for the polling error they made in 2016. That is bad news for Trump because he should be at least even electorally. Trump still has a shot because people are weary of Covid-19 and just want to resume normal life even if that means a few hundred thousand more people die. I have no idea why people would want to work themselves to death for making less $ per hour in order make the 1% richer but this is America in a nutshell. The only method of getting wealthier for the 99% is real estate and investments in the casino-like stock market, which are both rigged by the Fed.
Better headline: 6% of voters are retards.
My mind is never made up. I voted for Trump, and against Hillary Clinton. I wouldn’t have voted for Trump if I knew what he was going to do, but I do not rescind what I did given the “choice”. I’d still vote against Clinton anyway. This time around I am voting against Trump and Biden. It’s gonna be a Ron Paul write in vote. Now, I am going to go into my email and log into the 2020 Annenberg Election Study Panel and do another survey to see what “they” are up to.
All 3rd party votes and write in votes are in effect votes for Joe Biden since Trump is the underdog.
If you vote for 3rd party or write in you will responsible for Joe Biden who has already promised amnesty and US citizenship for all illegal immigrants and Green new deal and lots of H1B’s to crush wages for educated Americans because illegal immigrants only crush wages for working class Americans.
Have to disagree on that. I think write-ins and abstainers clearly favor Trump…because Trump voters are loyal and are sure to show up…..and Democrats are notorious for not showing up….
And that will be worse this time perhaps, because so many Dems wanted Bernie. Hell, Bernie voters even forgot to show up for the primaries.
Black voters showed up in droves for Obama, but they are also notorious for staying home, unless they have something big to motivate them….I don’t think they’re very excited about Harris. Biden was successful in getting a lot of them to the primaries…..but I’m not sure they will follow through.
I sure don’t get excited about voting for Biden….and I hated Hillary..but I held my nose and voted for her because I knew Trump from way back…from his Atlantic City days..I never once watched his stupid TV show. America….loves a celebrity. We’re dumb that way, most of us anyway,
Why not Jorgenson?
When Harris was elected to Senate she partied that she was the first Indian American Senator.
Now she has turned black.
Her dad comes from a slave owning familytree.
Her mother raised her as Indian.
The undersampling of Republicans continues in polls.
In 2016 according to exit polls 33% of voters were Republicans and this poll has 29% Republicans in it.
This is not the worst offender, some polls have had 24% and 25% Republicans in the poll.
Most likely the the 2020 presidential election will have about 33% Republicans like 2016.
So let’s take -4% from Biden’s polled 52% and put +4% into Trump’s polled 42% and we get Biden 48% and Trump 46%.
The election is wide open and not one debate has happened yet.
It is all about electoral college like last time since Biden will probably win the total votes and get 2-3 million more than Trump thanks to California and New York like Clinton did.
I hope Trump PREPS for the debate because there have been claims that Trump is NOT prepping for the debate because he is so full of himself and believes he does not need to prep.
Biden is PREPPING everyday and the Presidential Debates Commission put out the topics for the first debate to help Joe Biden PREP better.
Trump is a FOOL if he does not prep for the debate and have somebody act as Biden and repeating all the lies media has manufactured non-stop.
Biden is a bit out of it mentally either due to cognitive impairment from the brain aneurysms he had in the late 1980’s and that were treated with the then medical technology or maybe Biden is developing dementia.
Biden is using a teleprompter even when doing interviews as revealed by the reflection on the picture Biden held up when doing an interview in a studio and sometimes on Biden’s virtual interviews Biden is gesturing with his other hand by keeping it low and gesturing upwards likely because the teleprompter is not at the correct text for him to answer and sometimes Biden speaks total gibberish like ““We hold these truths to be self-evident,all men and women created by — you know, you know, the thing.” about the declaration of independence.
In one appearance Biden said that 200 million Americans have died from Covid and a few days later Biden said that 200 Americans have died from Covid so Biden is not all there anymore.
They are desperate to get out of the debates. Something tells me there will be a reason to cancel at the last minute. After that canceling the rest will be no problem.
This has to be the most unpredictable 40 days I have ever experienced.
You say Biden may be developing dementia. Whereas, we KNOW the current POTUS is a lifelong addict and has physical and mental problems.
Addicted to what? He doesn’t even drink. Diet coke?
‘Likely’ voters is the key phrase.
How many people with an opinion are going to actually cast a ballot?
That is difficult to assay in advance and quite variable.
As for Hillary, it was not Comey that did her in but breaking the law with classified emails.
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Now we know the results after 4 years, and it’s amazing to see trumptards are expecting miracle for another 4/8/12/lifelong years
Insanity is cutting one’s nose off to spite one’s face which are essentially the arguments one hears for not voting for Trump.
“I voted for Trump last time, but he didn’t do like he promised, so this time I’m voting for the Socialist Party. The results will be much better, I am sure!”
I guess I fall in the 94%, but I will not be voting for either Biden or Trump. I hope more people support 3P candidates or we can just expect more of the same.
Biden is the personification of more of the same since Joe Biden is totally corrupt and got Hunter Biden 1500 million from Chinese government owned Bank of China when Hunter Biden flew with Joe Biden to China on an official visit when Joe Biden was still VP.
Joe Biden also bragged in a conference that he got an Ukraine prosecutor fired by telling that Ukraine will not get 1 billion dollars in loan guarantees unless the prosecutor is fired before Joe Biden leaves Ukraine when he was visiting Ukraine.
Said prosecutor was investigating Burisma for corruption because an oligarch started Burisma and then when he was named Resources Minister he spent a few years giving Burisma and other companies owned by him lots of natural gas and oil licenses around Ukraine so in essence he robbed Ukraine’s wealth.
Hunter Biden joined Burisma board with no Ukrainian language skills. No knowledge in oil and gas. Did not even visit Ukraine. Was sitting in his apartment in USA drinking Smirnoff after being discharged from Navy for doing cocaine and once went to a fishing trip to Norway with the Burisma oligarch and once to a Burisma board meeting in Monaco where more cocaine use followed and yet was paid about 80k dollars a month aka 1 million dollars a year.
It is clear as day Hunter Biden’s job was corrupt and Hunter Biden was used by Burisma to buy the Vice-President of USA when Joe Biden was VP to do what Joe Biden did aka put political pressure on Ukraine when things were getting too hot for Burisma and Joe Biden got the prosecutor fired.
Everyone should read the New Yorker article on Hunter Biden:
link to archive.is
(I posted the archive in case the article goes missing)
Also there were lots of recordings of Joe Biden talking to Poroshenko released by NABU leaks but they have been removed by Youtube because Biden’s phonecalls with Poroshenko showed clear corruption.
So, basically, you are voting for Trump if you are in a swing state. You can’t get out of it. A third party vote is a vote for Trump in a swing state. Four more years of a liar, who can’t keep his “best people”, who thinks he is a stable genius who knows more than anyone else about everything, who fell in love with Little Rocket Man and Putin. OK
I am a former Trump voter. How does one continue to support Trump if they were against Obama’s deficits and debt creation, the threat of gun control, the socialist bailouts and handouts, the Planned Parenthood funding, etc.? Apparently those weren’t the real reasons many Trump supporters opposed Obama.
I am amazed how quiet these people are as #MAGA looks like hope and change to me.
Trump commands 100% of the F*** You vote…..the disenfranchised working class abandoned by the Democratic leadership in their search for a less demanding constituency…as the Dems have gotten further and further into the politics of identity and social justice and special rights for all special minority groups…..they pushed, and will continue to push voters toward anyone who calls bullshit on their false narrative.
That’s why getting rid of Trump is just a band-aid. It could go from bad to worse.
That working class dissatisfaction….it isn’t necessarily all racism by the way.
The idea that unlimited immigration might not be a good thing? That’s a reasonable POV, if you are a native born American engineer getting lower pay because of huge numbers of H1B Visas.
Or..if you happen to be a native born Ph.D in any field that used to lead to a tenured professorship salary……when classes at flagship universities today are all being taught by foreign grad students being paid a pittance……so the big name research guys can concentrate on grant writing…..instead of teaching. Why do we need so many foreign grad students?
Its a scam. Both those situations are scams,…..and the benefits do not accrue to ordinary American people.
The idea that we need to have VP’s of Diversity at every institution of higher learning who get paid big bucks to tell white people how to deal with perceived racism…is questionable…..especially when VP’s of Diversity can ONLY be black or hispanic.
We have all these unassailable shibboleths around racism…based on….based on what? Somebody’s “lived experience”? Gimme a break. Lived experience used to mean “my opinion”…..now it’s something sacred. Because slavery.
Poor white people don’t carry the racial guilt of college educated white people, who feel obligated to be “anti-racist”…..you can’t snow poor people with fake social science being pushed by socialist academicians.
So I will vote for Biden…..because merely not voting….is the worst kind of cop-out. And Trump is dangerous.
But don’t tell me Biden and the Democrats are good guys. They are influence peddling corporate shills…….giving lip service to these social justice memes because it gets votes. They aren’t even sincere about their own narrative. It’s just a convenient front.
The disenfranchised working class – you nailed it in my mind but I could be wrong.
MAGA is this demographics for the republican’s
BLM – ANTIF – is this demographics for the democrats.
I agree it is not necessarily all racism. That is why so many white people have joined the protest but are protesting against the police (which they are representing as the government control and the ones who enforce it? IMHO). Voting does not seem to change the narrative in their minds. Same old same old.
Narratives are being constructed on both sides to mislead the voters. IMHO.
Things will not get better. As companies become conglomerates, money will flow to a few and the majority will become poorer.
I still don’t understand how companies like Walmart and Amazon, two huge success stories, have 40% of their employees receiving government aid or entitlements while the owners increase their wealth 1 billion a week.
I think if you are a public company you should have a separate minimum wage then a mom and pop business. One that pays people above the poverty line.
So you are saying you hate what Democrats have done and what they have become and what they are promising to do more and then you claim you will vote for Joe Biden?
Either you are a really special person like one in a trillion or you are trying to get people who feel like you claim to feel to vote for Joe Biden who has promised to turbocharge and boost everything you said you hate.
The point is this: In four short years, Trump has nearly destroyed the US. His operating method, always dividing, never uniting, has led to divisions the like of which the US has never seen before. We have greater rioting and vandalism that he has not only fostered, he has openly encouraged. The US has lost all credibility on the national stage. The Government bureaucracy is increasingly disfunctional. There is no sign of healing or improvement in any area. Add to that that the US is last in the world in terms of how they handed Covid, and you have nothing but a train wreck. Only a total moron could vote for more of that.
On the other hand, Biden and Harris, if they have their way, will destroy the country over the next twenty years. So, destroy it immediately by re-electing Trump? Or destroy it over twenty years, with Biden-Harris? If forced to choose, I’d obviously take 20 years, but I plan to vote for Jorgensen, What about down the ticket? The Republican Party has been completely destroyed by Trump, and it will not be a factor again for at least a dozen years.
Media and Democrats started dividing Americans the moment Trump won.
What world are you living in? Are the media and democrats creating deep fake videos of Trump acting like the divisive jackass he is? How in the hell is that the media’s fault when he lies and encourages violence and uses divisive language at every turn? How is that the dems and media’s fault exactly? I swear to God this country get’s what it deserves. Destroy the public education system over generation and you have a population of morons.
In reality Covid has killed under 10 000 Americans.
the rest had on average 2.6 comorbidities and would have died in few monts or years.
I could’ve written this response and it’s dead on accurate. Growing up a non-elite white male is the absolute worst position to be in in this country now and going forward.
Anyone voting for Biden is voting for Harris. Maybe it couldn’t be worse is the wrong thing to say.
After Obamacare I can’t imagine what a blue senate, house, and presidency could accomplished. Everything you don’t support Trump for they will go hardcore into.
If the democrats sweep inflation is coming like never before here.
Is Trump’s opposing party “against Obama’s deficits and debt creation, the threat of gun control, the socialist bailouts and handouts, the Planned Parenthood funding, etc.?”
WTF are you talking about?!!!