Likely to Hurt 

Biden's pick of chameleon opportunist Kamala Harris is unlikely to play well in states the Democrats need to win to take the Senate.

I created the above map on 370-to-Win

That link shows my map that you can modify or reset.

What Changed?

My Previous Map had Democrats up 50-47. Now it's 50-49. I suspect Iowans will make my next update 50-50.

If so, Republicans will just need to move Maine back into their column. 

Tie is a Win

A tie is a win for the Democrats assuming Biden wins the election, which I do. But Harris won't help there either. 

The Democrats put another lightning rod on the ticket and that was a poor move. 

Harris Protects Pedophile Priests

Harris Accused of Accepting Bribes

Harris was sued for Imposing strict conditions on the sale of the Daughters of Charity Health System in exchange for millions of dollars in contributions.

Birthers Go After Harris

This is pure silliness on the part of Trump. There are so many legitimate angles on which to attack Harris.

Political Suicide

The Wall Street Journal Op-Ed claims Kamala Harris Won’t Satisfy Progressives

It’s hard to believe that younger black voters will look past Ms. Harris’s record as San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general. “That ‘top cop’ thing has just stuck—she built such a strong brand on it as an AG, as the DA—and it’s hard for people to erase that in their memories,” Chivona Newsome, a co-founder of Black Lives Matter, told the New York Times. Kevin Cooper sits on California’s death row in part because Ms. Harris refused to allow him to obtain advanced DNA testing to demonstrate his innocence. Prosecutors withheld potentially exculpatory evidence in the case of George Gage, and Attorney General Harris fought to keep him in prison on a technicality. He’s 80 and still behind bars.  

Mr. Biden probably won’t enjoy much of a boost from a running mate primarily chosen to appeal to the older black voters who would have turned out for him anyway. He has certainly alienated progressives. 

The hashtag #KamalaIsACop will trend again.

Seven Things

Please consider 7 Key Observations About the Choice of Kamala Harris

I like Points 1 (condensed), 4, 5, and 6. 

1. This is going to be the Harris Administration with Joe as a figurehead. That is not an exaggeration. 

4. Harris is perhaps the most anti-religious freedom candidate on a major party ticket in the modern era. There are numerous examples of this, and it was the actual inception of the beef with Tulsi, after Harris threatened what amounts to a religious test to block members of the Knights of Columbus from the courts. 

5. A touchy debate will play out on black Twitter and Reddit about whether Kamala qualifies as sufficiently black, because she is Jamaican and Indian. It has already begun. Expect this to become a touchy subject that will lead to pieces in The Atlantic and NYT that are handwringing and uncomfortable.

6. Who is not high on Kamala? Young voters, for one: how will college age voters react to this choice, especially if they are in the Sanders wing, which finds Kamala terrible? What about Hispanic voters, who could potentially have problems with her past activities in California and on Catholic issues? How about pro-marijuana voters? There are a number of traditional Democratic coalition members who may not like her.

Short Synopsis

"If you are an anti-war pro-pot Bernie Sanders-liking class warrior type, Kamala does nothing for you

She is a “moderate” only in tone, not in position, and according to DW Nominate, she is the second-farthest left Senator in voting record."

Who Does She Please?

Harris does not please the Progressives despite nearly being one of them. But she does not please the centrists either.

In short, this is the kind of wishy-washy, allegedly "safe" choice silliness that appeals to no one who can see what's really going on.

What About the Presidential Election?

Biden's choice will make the election closer.  Trump has someone he can easily attack. 

But despite the fact that Kamala Harris is a Nauseating Political Opportunist, Trump has alienated far too many people to win. 

His Covid handling, the recession, jobs, tariffs, and handling of the George Floyd incident are likely far too much to overcome.

I have Biden as a 70-30 favorite, similar to Nate Silver.

For discussion, please see Biden is a Huge Favorite to Win the Election.

The Senate is now another matter.

Point-CounterPoint Addendum

Reader Claim: The VP pick impacts down ballot races? I think the argument is weak. VP doesn't impact that greatly  Harris probably increases black voter turnout. This seems to be the calculation.

Mish Rebuttal: It may be the "calculation" but I strongly disagree. 

Harris is widely disliked by blacks. Biden romped and stomped her in states with large percentage of minorities.

Some Blacks will sit out the election but most will do what they would do anyway: Vote Democratic.

Rather, it is the marginal White voter who may switch to Trump that matters. 

This could easily tip the election. Recall that Trump won a handful of states by less than a percentage point.

Addendum

I was challenged about Harris being disliked. Distrust is a better word. 

This story nails it:  Black people didn't trust Kamala Harris, and they were wise not to.

Let's not confuse a recent rally behind the nominee for sudden trust. 

People need to rationalize their choice, and the result is a sudden appearance of trust that was not present when it was Biden vs Harris.

Blacks were going to vote Democratic no matter who Biden picked for a running mate. 

The cost is many marginal White voters and that is the key point to this article.

Mish