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Key Points

  1. Trump supporters are 86% certain to vote. Biden supporters are 89% certain to vote.
  2. 46 % of Trump supporters are very excited to vote. 48% of Biden supporters are very excited to vote.

The above is from an Ipos Poll post-debate, as reported by 538.

Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each candidate on a scale of 0-10, and their preferred candidate is the one who received the higher score. Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included. Respondents who already voted are included in the “absolutely certain” bucket and respondents who gave themselves a 50-50 shot of voting are included in the “not too likely” bucket.

Popularity Contest

Popularity Contest

Scoring the Candidates

Post Debate Score 2020-10-23

On the whole, debate watchers were more impressed with both Biden and Trump’s performance than they were in the first debate: 76 percent thought the debate was “somewhat good” or “very good.” The share who thought Trump’s performance was “somewhat good” or “very good” jumped from one-third in the last debate to a little over half in this debate. Biden got higher marks, too, up from 60 percent to 69 percent.

There was less change in viewers’ assessments of their policies, though. Forty-four percent thought Trump’s policy answers were good, compared to 60 percent for Biden — although both of those ratings are a few percentage points higher than in the first debate.

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Biden Won

Assuming this poll is accurate, Biden clearly won despite what I believe was a last-minute unforced error on energy policy.

I rated the debate a small win for Trump.

For discussion, please see Final Debate: Unforced Error by Biden on Energy, Lies, Missed Opportunities

But my vote does not matter. Judging from the above poll, little or nothing changed, and that was my most likely outcome.

Realistically, no change or even a small win for Trump is a loss for him. 

The debates are over. If Trump did not change minds yet, there is no reason to believe he will, or even can.