85% Confidence Levels
It is possible Trump wins. We will have to suffer through another debate before my confidence level gets too much higher.
How I see Things Now
That is the same map as my forecast with increased uncertainty regarding Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia.
I expect all three to break for Biden unless he makes a major gaffe in the next debate, catches Covid, or some other unexpected event happens.
Likely Best Case For Trump
I believe the best Trump can do (again an 85% confidence level is to fall short).
That does not rule out a Trump win, as 15% isn’t nothing.
It’s just very difficult to make up ground when you trail in every swing state plus states that are not even supposed to be swing states.
Even Texas is in play for Biden.
Likely Best Case For Biden
Uncertainty goes both ways. My 85% confidence level says it is more likely for Biden to win Texas than it is for Trump to win the election.
Confidence Ranges
- 85% Confidence Range: Biden 280-413
- 75% Confidence Range: Biden 315-375
Mish
Just wanted to note that Mish’s fearless election prediction map was very close to the actual outcome of the election, and that the electoral college tallies are also on the mark. I am more interested in Mish’s business and economic analysis than political analysis, but this was a prescient call.
I will say that if Biden wins then I do think the economy will crash. I also think that business once planning to move out of China back to the US will stay in China. I think China will retain its influence in our media, business, education and corrupt govt officials. I dont think the democrats will support the wall or any restrictions on immigration nor do I think the democrats will support Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia or India. All the foreign policy and trade progress made under Trump will be reversed. In a short time I think many people will regret voting for Biden and admit Trump was a bad messenger but had the country on the right track moving in the right direction. I didn’t make predictions in 2016 (just hope) and I am not making predictions in 2020 (just hope). If one listens to the media and the prognosticators and the so called experts then its all but a sealed deal for Hillary and now Biden. Many if not most polls are overweight democrats and many if not most Trump voters will say Biden or not admit to voting for Trump because they dont want an argument with their wife, family member, friend or neighbor…nor do they want their car or house vandalized or repercussions at work.
In my neighborhood, in a Deep blue democratic city, Hispanics who voted for Hillary tell me they are secretly voting for President Trump. I’m hispanic. I am voting for El Presidente, also, the name of a beer in our bodegas. President Trump is now a super hero. Even Telemundo knows this. Wake up, Mish. My anecdotal evidence means a landslide for the Republicans. People want jobs. Democrats destroyed the garment district jobs Of New York when they created globalization. We hate our corrupt New York politicians, the mayor, the governor. Biden is corrupt. Biden is weak. Biden is too old for the job. President Trump is a thousand times better.
I have Biden at 253. All the blue states plus MN, NV and PA.
I have Trump at 198. All the red states plus OH. I’m including TX, GA and SC as red states, even though Trump has turned them into swing states.
Election boils down to 6 swing states, AZ, MI, WI, NC, FL and… Iowa (shouldn’t really be a swing state, but it is in 2020). Biden needs just 2 of those swing states (or put another way, Trump needs to take 5 of the 6.
The democrats should be able to easily beat Trump. Their incompetence has given Trump a chance. Given the democrats incompetence, Trump should be able to easily win. But his incompetence is preventing it.
no matter who wins
the shiteshow will continue – debt trap then can be owned 1000% by biden
hope he doesn’t try hiden’
Not sure about Iowa and Ohio turning blue. Georgia in blue is sure interesting…
Seeing as Mish has gone out on a limb; here is my My Fearless Debate Forecast.
There will NOT be another debate.
I predict Biden will opt out at the last moment. Highest (30%) probability excuse: he will claim he has tested Covid-19 positive. Soon after, it will be declared a false positive.
Reasoning: In a debate format, Trump will repeatedly bring up the Hunter Biden laptop. Having locked up most mass-media (or minimally/critically covered eg. NYTimes webpage below) Democrats cannot afford to give Trump a platform to reach the nation.
Noting that authenticity has not been rejected by the Bidens or DNC (only by clowns like Clapper), I must assume the emails, photos, and videos are exactly as claimed; and the worst is yet to come–politics is like playing poker. In a debate, there is nothing to stop Trump reading the emails aloud, even holding up a photo of Hunter…
I stand corrected, the Debate Commission has eliminated foreign policy as a topic, and will switch off Trump’s microphone to prevent him from telling the nation.
I might vote today….maybe catch a lull and get in and out quick. Ready to get it over with.
By the debate Thursday, 1/2 the country will have already voted. I’ve already sealed my ballot and will mail it today.
The media will ignore any Hunter issues for as long as possible, Nov 4 being the likely date.
This issue won’t swing the election, even if authentic and terrible.
Wouldn’t surprise me to wake up Nov 4 to MSM headlines of “holy cow, this is real, the President-elect needs to resign so that the nation can have a clean start with Kamala.”
The worst thing about Trump taking his well-earned loss is that the Democratic Party earned that loss too but will be able to avoid it.
>> “holy cow, this is real, the President-elect needs to resign so that the nation can have a clean start with Kamala.”
That’s certainly not the worst thing that can happen.
Do you seriously think the DNC has not been aware of the situation (aka TREASON) for at least a year, and Harris has not been informed previously? The entire impeachment process was a coverup–it is now clear that Trump was 100% right to reach out to Ukraine about Biden.
It might not change the election–there are always stupid uninformed people. However, by December it is likely that the Biden’ crimes will cause large scale riots across the country.
The people Trump was reaching out were GRU agents. Ukraine is controlled by Russia thanks to Trump.
Could you please be more specific about those ‘GRU agents’? According to who? Clapper? How, exactly, is Trump responsible for Russia controlling the Ukraine? Because you saw it on your favorite TV station/ website?
We live in an era of ‘bad Russia’, which is not to say that Russia does not play games.
Would kamala be president? I know after Biden is sworn in, she would be, but if the elect resigns before being sworn in, does the VP get sworn in instead?
KidHorn, I think that’s the case, but I’ve read things incorrectly before.
From Wiki: “The Constitution did not originally include the term president-elect. The term was introduced through the Twentieth Amendment, ratified in 1933, which contained a provision addressing the unavailability of the president-elect to take the oath of office on Inauguration Day.[1] Section 3 provides that if there is no president-elect on January 20, or the president-elect “fails to qualify”, the vice president-elect would become acting president on January 20 until there is a qualified president. The section also provides that if the president-elect dies before noon on January 20, the vice president-elect becomes president. In cases where there is no president-elect or vice president-elect, the amendment also gives the Congress the authority to declare an acting president until such time as there is a president or vice president. At this point the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 would apply, with the office of the Presidency going to the speaker of the House of Representatives, followed by the president pro tempore of the Senate and various Cabinet officers.”
On the ground here in a red part of Florida, more Trump signs than Biden signs. But I don’t think that means much, 4 years ago there were zero Hillary signs. There’s even 2 “Republicans for Biden” signs in my neighborhood.
Drove by a Walmart in town yesterday and there was a Trump rally on the sidewalk with lots of “Honk if you’re for Trump” signs and people waving. I only heard one car out of probably 20 honk.
Supervisor of Elections shows the mail-in ballots coming in are majority Democrat. That’s a bad sign in a County that’s 60% Republican (including me). I’m voting for Biden though I detest the corrupt old dude. I just can’t associate myself with the cultists.
Trump’s own team expects to lose. They are sending out resumes. Trump himself is angry and blaming Meadows. Advisers say he’s not focused
I don’t know what polls to believe, what news to believe, etc… but based on behavior, you’re probably right.
Biden on Sunday calls a lid on campaign activities for 4 days. That’s the sign of a guy whose internal polling shows him with an insurmountable lead.
Trump comes out today calling Biden a criminal, the entire MSM criminal, Fauci an idiot, demanding changes to the debate topics, etc. He sounds unhinged (more so than usual) today. That’s the sign of a guy whose internal polling is looking really bad.
Of course he’s losing it to father time.
Every appearance he makes is a danger.
On a daily basis, his team weighs the danger of his appearances vs. the danger of him hiding.
Your focus is on one side of the scale (danger of appearing).
His team realizes that there’s no danger hiding him away. Not a good sign for Trump.
Do it all over again if the Biden campaign is forced to admit the quid quo pro. It might already be baked into the cake, but maybe not.
Do what all over again? The election?
Nobody is admitting anything until Nov 4. No Democrat will even address anything until then.
After that, if doesn’t matter what Biden admits, there’s no do-over. If Biden goes down, we get Harris.
The USA didn’t get McGovern(D) when Nixon(R) resigned. It got Ford(R).
That forecast looks about right to me, though the momentum seems to be all in favor of Biden, at least for now.
I am a RE broker here in Arizona. I never voted and never will because between the two parties, all you get to choose is “paper or plastic” (bag), but what’s in the bag is the same in the end.
I have to tell you what I see on the ground doesn’t match with your prediction. Going around the Valley, I see lots and lots of Trump signs, from cars to truck flags to home signs. I have seen only a few Biden signs, maybe 1 in 5, if that.
Also, a week or so ago, there was supposed to be a Biden rally downtown Phoenix. Nobody showed up. Literally. I watched ABC and the reporter was puzzled as to why this happened. There were police cars around to keep crowds under control, except … nobody showed up. As in, not a single person. Trump rallies are a ruckus.
If I were betting, I’d say Trump will win AZ, easily. I am confused how pollsters see AZ going blue. Most people here fled California as housing refugees, and most of them have turned red in the process.
Not to say that’s good or bad. I only look at policies, not people or parties. I wish there was a Centrist Party in the US, with liberal attitude and reasonable entitlements as well as fiscal responsibility. As it is, like I said, “paper or plastic” is the question, just like in the old supermarket checkout, and I feel this is just the oligarchy framing the game: you have a choice of candidates we provide. No thanks.
Non-voter here as well. I’m still not sure how this election goes and it’s especially hard to predict given the irate mood of the country.
However, I’m not sure rallies are as good an indicator as they used to be. The main impetus for voting now is dislike (hatred?) for the other candidate rather than support. Personally I find it difficult to believe that anyone could be genuinely excited about either of these guys and it seems a lot of the Trump mania comes from ridiculous fantasies like the kind Qanon peddles.
I could see a lot of people voting for Biden even though they don’t particularly like him. Advertising that vote would probably make them feel slimy, as it should!
I’m voting for Biden this year, even though I despise the guy. Never voted for a Democrat in my life. And I would never go to a Biden rally or even put a sign in my yard. But Trump is a dangerous idiot, and I feel some responsibility to my country.
“Trump is a dangerous idiot” – Exactly, I often don’t vote, but this year I’m panic voting, in person, I want “sleepy” not constant anxiety.
Mish voting for a libertarian in a binary election shows he is far from fearless
Differences between candidates does not (for me, anyway) take me to a binary choice. A “binary election” would be: A competition in which there is a clear indication of which is the better choice for those who must live with the outcomes, i.e., “us”. For me, it’s not clear. Thanks to negative campaigning and media hysteria, I feel informed about what the “cons” are in both columns; no need to reiterate here. I think there’s more certainty about what Trump would do, and a record of what he has achieved despite the attempts to unseat and neuter him. I ‘m not clear what Biden has ever accomplished in a “positive sense” through his personal convictions and efforts, (other than figuring out how to stay in favor enough to be reelected). Nor do I believe he has what it takes to be a strong and cogent leader. In the end, for me, it’s Trump vs. Harris (and whatever progressives she brings along). You think that’s “binary”? I consider it a conundrum. There is one Democrat I can write in, but maybe I’ll go for Jo instead. Screw it, I’m one vote among millions. I care much more about most local and state government elections.
My prediction?
Weeks of manufactured chaos until the December 8, or even January 6, based on key electoral college dates.
Ever wonder what a total shit-show looks like? What the dismantling of constitutional process will be like? In a pandemic?
We’ll be living it for 2 months after the election.
Instead of leaving the country, tRump may decide to establish a United States of tRump! where all the tRump states unite and create a new KingDom. That’s fine with me, as I live in a blue state.
Exit pols are what bother me. With all this mail-in/absentee balloting, I don’t see a way that they can do an accurate exit pol. I watched it like a hawk in 2016, especially the Dem primary that was so crooked. now I don’t know what to expect.
Too much TDS Mish! Not a Trump fan and will be voting libertarian again .. feels very much like 2016 all over with the exception that he will do significantly better with the African American and Hispanic communities. Polls are wrong as usual.
If you think he is getting anything above about 5% of the minority vote I would suggest you make an appointment to get your meds adjusted. And he is doing 15-20 points worse with women than last time, they will put Biden over the top in a landslide. Even the dem senator Jones in Alabama is now ahead of his GOP challenger after a 15-20 point lead for months, this should be telling you something.
He’s polling far stronger in both the African American community and Hispanic relative to 2016. A prediction of <5% is laughable.
And I’ve not seen one reliable poll that ever had tubberville up 15-20 points in Alabama. I know this because I used to teach in Birmingham and keep up with bama politics.
Thanks Mish. Very gutsy… but we shall see in about 16 days. It will get rowdy.
Biden win / lose scenarios:
Which will be higher, a one ounce silver coin or a 4’ x 8 x 5/8 sheet of plain plywood?
Do you know the price of sheet of 5/8 plywood? Plywood prices went trough the roof after April. It almost doubled .
lol, toss up
Pressure treated is where the real fun begins. Drywall is being hung within a few weeks of its fabrication in many places.
Plywood is the winner for the short term… till spring unless they shut it all down again, then all bets are off.
A piece of 5/8″ plywood costs $50. Way more than silver.
After a debate and a townhall if you are expecting a different Donald Trump you’ll be disappointed. This is not a politician who can shift boxing styles. He brings the shpiel of his rallies to the debates. He’s already practicing at the stump. Hasn’t worked so far.