Nate Silver asks and answers the question: Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

Biden is ahead of Sanders for the first time since February 3.

"No Candidate" In the Lead

Interestingly, no candidate has topped 50% until now.

Amazingingly, "no candidate" is now in the lead with a 67% chance.

Biden is in second place with 17% to Bernie's 16%.

Pete Buttigieg Will Endorse Joe Biden for Democratic Nomination

The New York Times reports Pete Buttigieg Will Endorse Joe Biden for Democratic Nomination.

Mr. Buttigieg, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend, Ind., sought to portray himself as an agent of generational change, his presence in the race an implicit argument against Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. But he rarely had a cross word to say about the former vice president, and in September pivoted his campaign to the center, making ever more forceful arguments against the progressive candidacies of Mr. Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Plan B

The same applies to Klobuchar.

I made note of that several times during the debates. It seemed clear that plan B for both Klobuchar and Buttigieg were both angling for the future as well as VP selection.

For discussion, please see Klobuchar Drops Out: Did She Make a Deal with Biden?

My short answer is "yes", and it was a very smart move.

Q&A on VP Selection

Q. I was asked earlier today "If Biden hasn't made any VP deals as of yet, wouldn't Warren be the best deal to make?"

A. Absolutely not. Warren is a lightning rod and a Marxist. Biden needs to pick someone independents and crossover Republicans can support can support.

My premise for over a month is that the Democratic nominee or VP candidate cannot be a lightning rod or Trump might easily win. My lightning rods were Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders.

Stop Bernie

The New York Times reports Democratic Leaders Willing to Risk Party Damage to Stop Bernie Sanders.

Dozens of interviews with Democratic establishment leaders this week show that they are not just worried about Mr. Sanders’s candidacy, but are also willing to risk intraparty damage to stop his nomination at the national convention in July if they get the chance. Since Mr. Sanders’s victory in Nevada’s caucuses on Saturday, The Times has interviewed 93 party officials — all of them superdelegates, who could have a say on the nominee at the convention — and found overwhelming opposition to handing the Vermont senator the nomination if he arrived with the most delegates but fell short of a majority.

Such a situation may result in a brokered convention, a messy political battle the likes of which Democrats have not seen since 1952, when the nominee was Adlai Stevenson.

Backwards

The Times has this story backwards.

Party damage would come from nominating Bernie, Harris, or Warren.

This is Not 2016

Repeat after me: This is not 2016. This is not 2016. This is not 2016.

Keep repeating that until it sinks in.

I commented back in January this is more like the lesson from Brexit. In that case Jeremy Corbyn went increasingly radical with Socialist and Marxist ideas, so much so the center Left dropped him.

The result was a landslide for Boris Johnson.

Flashback January 13

Six Things That Make a Brokered Democratic Convention More Likely

"The odds of a brokered convention are greater than most think."

1: The superdelegates do not get to vote in the first round this year unless a candidate has a majority. Unlike 2016 when they all went to Hillary, this year they don’t vote until round 2 unless it is already decided.

2: California is now part of Super Tuesday. In 2016, the California primary was held on June 7. This year, the survivor bias bandwagon effect will be significantly reduced and possibly eliminated.

3: Following NH there will be two debates, and likely 4 candidates minimum at each. Currently there are six.

4: This will likely not be a two-way races headed into Super-Tuesday. Elizabeth Warren may have little overall chance, but she does have a chance of getting 15% in many states.

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5: Progressive Split: Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are battling each other for the Progressives. Bernie will get most of this vote, but Warren will likely have have enough money to stay in until the end if she wants.

6: Bloomberg and Steyer may target a couple of states hard: Texas, Colorado perhaps? They may each pull 15% in a couple of them.

Flashback February 17

A Contested Convention Is Looking More Likely.

Moderate Split vs Liberal Split Analysis

1: Warren likely has the funds to say in until the end, if she wants to.

2: Warren certainly will stay in until Super Tuesday.

3: Warren cannot stand Bernie. They have an open feud.

4: Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg are more likely to run out of money than Warren.

5: Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are more likely to prefer a moderate as second choice not a socialist.

Silver Repeatedly Behind the Curve

Nate Silver was repeatedly behind the curve on a contested convention.

Ironically, I now think Silver is more than a bit too high.

Looking Ahead

  • Florida (March 17) has 219 delegates. Sanders may get none of them.
  • Georgia (March 24) has 105 delegates. Sanders may get none of them.

State of the Democratic Race

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Wow. What a change.

About a week ago Sanders was trading at 67 cents for the nomination.

If Bloomberg drops out after Super Tuesday, Biden has a very good shot at a majority.

Disclosure

I bought Biden at 8 cents and Bloomberg at 23 cents. Those were for winning it all, not just the nomination.

One More Flashback

January 18, 2020: Six Reasons Biden-Klobuchar Would be a Strong Presidential Ticket

Six Reasons for Klobuchar

1: She is not a lightning rod nor has she offended anyone that I am aware of.

2: She would appeal to many of those wanting a women on the ticket.

3: She was against most of the nonsense in Iraq although she did support a boondoggle in Libya.

4: She is a good debater.

5: Like Biden, she is a moderate. If Democrats want to beat Trump, their best chance is a moderate ticket that independents can support.

6: Her youth counteracts Biden’s age.

Global Recession

If Biden-Klobuchar is indeed the Democrat ticket, I predict Trump will get crushed.

A Global Recession Now Baked in the Cake.

A recession matters so much that possibly even Sanders could beat Trump.

Bear in mind that I voted for Trump against Hillary and would do so again vs Hillary, Warren, or Harris. Against others, I might sit it out.

I don't like Biden, I am just telling you what I believe the reality to be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock