Early this morning I speculated Bernie Edged Buttigieg But Klobuchar is the Real Winner.

Key Takeaways from This Morning

  1. I see one clear winner and one runner-up winner. Neither is Bernie Sanders.
  2. Senator Elizabeth Warren is crippled.
  3. Warren may be crippled, but she is out for Bernie.
  4. The New Hampshire Primary increases the odds of a contested convention.
  5. A lot can happen, but the odds of no winner are now about 30% in my estimation. That is up from 25% in my previous forecast.

This afternoon, Nate Silver at 538 came out with its assessment Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

  • Bernie Sanders: 36%
  • No One: 36%
  • Biden: 17%
  • Buttigieg: 5%
  • Bloomberg 4%
  • Warren 3%

Bernie's odds of winning outright dropped from 48% to 36%.

Plurality Odds

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Bernie's odds of having more delegates than any other candidate are just over 50%, but even if so, he needs to be within striking distance or the superdelegates might act to stop his candidacy.


Once again, Nearly any setup in which 3 candidates can maintain 15% or more of the vote until the end leads to a negotiated convention. And it does not have to be the same three in each state.

New Hampshire increased those odds significantly.

3 Down 1 to Go: Bloomberg Hits 3rd Qualifier for NV Debate

Yesterday I commented 3 Down 1 to Go: Bloomberg Hits 3rd Qualifier for NV Debate

Bloomberg needs to top 10% in one more national poll to be on the state for the next debate (Only certain pollsters qualify. Click on the link for detail).

I think it's important to be on the stage but a good friend of mine disagrees. He commented "no one wins these debates".

No One Wins These Debates

Judging from the huge leap in "No One" perhaps he is right in more ways than one.

"No One" is now tied with Bernie for the lead.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Odds of "No Winner" in the Democratic Primary Top 1 In 4

I arrived at a similar number as Nate Silver, but our methods are vastly different.

What Are the Odds of No Winner in the Democratic Primaries?

Let's investigate the possibility no Democratic candidate will amass 50% of the votes resulting in a brokered convention

No Winner Odds Soar to 67%: This Favors Biden

Nate Silver says the odds of no Democratic candidate achieving a majority heading into the convention are now 67%.

Bernie Edged Buttigieg But Klobuchar is the Real Winner

Bernie Sanders edged Pete Buttigieg in close New Hampshire primary. The real winner vs expectations was Amy Klobuchar.

Path to "No Winner" Still On Track

Democratic polls trends remain on track for no candidate to have over 50% of the delegates by the convention.

Bernie's Odds of Winning the Nomination are Under 50%

Careful poll and betting odds analysis suggest Bernie's chances are not as good as the media bandwagon thinks.

Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye

A slew of new polls released this morning suggests the campaign of Bernie Sanders just came crashing down.

Assessing the Odds of Various Democrats Beating Trump

What are the odds of Bloomberg, Biden, Sanders, or Warren becoming president?

Six Things That Make a Brokered Democratic Convention More Likely

The odds of a brokered convention are greater than most think.