Betting ODDs By State

Which Party Will Control the Senate

Betting odds are from Predictit. The Lead map is from 270ToWin.

Current Senate Makeup

Current Senate Map With Expected Changes

Two independents (Green) caucus with the Democrats. Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus S. King, Jr. in Maine.

Expected Changes

I expect Democrats to pick up seats in Maine, North Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona but lose one in Alabama for a net pickup of +3.

North Carolina and Arizona Polls

North Carolina and Arizona Senate Polls 2020-09-02

Those leads have been steady and persistent for months. There is no reason to expect or believe anything different will happen.

Colorado Polls

Colorado Senate Polls 2020-08-31

Public Policy is a biased poll sponsored by someone or some political party. That makes it suspect. However, Hickenlooper has been +9 for months in nearly every poll so there is no reason to expect or believe anything different will happen.

Alabama 

Taking a Stand for God

The Alabama Senate race follows a special election. Jeff Sessions stepped down as Senator to become Trump's Attorney General.

In a special election, Doug Jones, a Democrat, barely beat Ray Moore, a Republican who Dated Teenaagers for Their Purity

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Trump backed Moore, of course. But the Republican National Committee could not stand the stench and cut off funding. 

Yet, despite the sex charges and lack of funding Jones barely beat Moore by a margin of 49.9 to 48.4.

Jones became the first Democrat to win any statewide office in decades. 

Don't expect that again, to say the least.

Montana

Montana is a potential wildcard. The polls are stale (Late July) but Republican Daines has led Democrat Bullock by about 6 points the last three polls. 

In early July, Bullock was ahead in several polls. 

Montana rates to go red, but this is a potential Democrat flip to watch.

Maine Polls

Maine Senate Polls 2020-08-13A

This is where doubt sets in. Not only are those polls stale, they come from marginal pollsters. 

Also note Lisa Savage of the Green party who is running as an independent. 

The result is no candidate is polling over 50%. Savage undoubtedly takes votes away from Gideon for the benefit of Collins. 

We need fresh polls, but Collins is the underdog. 

Add It all Up

Add it all up and things look like a tie. 

But the Vice President gets to vote in the Senate to break ties. 

A single swing vote or lack thereof would decide things in the Senate.

Mish

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