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Black People Can Go Anywhere if They are Conservative

In a debate with Democrat challenger Jaime Harrison, Lindsey Graham stuck his foot in his mouth with this line: Black People “Can Go Anywhere” in South Carolina if They’re Conservative

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said Friday that Black Americans “can go anywhere in this state,” as long as they’re “not liberal.” 

That clip is a bit out of context if you play Graham's full answer.

But here's the expected reaction.

A Reminder

South Carolina Senate Polls

South Carolina Senate Polls 2020-10-12

Nate Silver estimates Graham is a 75-25 Favorite 

I suspect Harrison is in the range of a 33-45% chance, minimum.

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Five Reasons Why

  1. The polls are very stale
  2. That Harrison was polling this well early on is a sign of trouble for Graham.
  3. Graham's statements will hurt him.
  4. Fundraising
  5. Coattails and Turnout

Points number 4 and 5 may carry the day for Harrison but I will reassess when new polls come in. 

Harrison Shatters Fundraising Record

Note that Jaime Harrison shatters Senate fundraising record for South Carolina race

South Carolina Democrat Jaime Harrison raised a staggering $57 million in the third quarter of this year, shattering the previous record for a Senate candidate as he seeks to unseat GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham.

The haul only increases Harrison's massive financial advantage over Graham, who is seeking a fourth term in the Senate and facing the most competitive reelection race of his career.

Graham has not yet released his third-quarter fundraising totals. He raised $8.4 million in the second quarter and had $15 million in the bank as of June 30. Graham has increasingly signaled that he's in dire financial straits: Late last month, he went on Fox News twice in a single day and implored viewers to donate to his campaign, saying he was "getting overwhelmed."

Harrison has massively outspent Graham in the race. The Democrat's campaign spent $52 million on TV and digital advertising so far this year compared to $19 million for Graham, according to data from Advertising Analytics. Between now and Election Day, Harrison has more than $16 million reserved, while Graham has $4.8 million.

Coat Tails and Turnout

Barring some last minute major gaffe by Biden, Trump will get clobbered in November. 

There is no enthusiasm for Biden, but there is huge negative enthusiasm for Trump. 

If Republican turnout is low, don't be shocked if Harrison wins.