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Trump Trails Among Seniors

Some states with big populations of people over 65 years old are also places where voters appear to be shifting away from Trump, polls show.

Please note Trump Trails Among Seniors, Key Group in Many Battleground States

Mr. Trump won seniors by 7 percentage points in 2016 but has trailed Mr. Biden by 10 points with that group all year in Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling. The coronavirus pandemic is making it hard for the president to rebound with older voters, who are among those most vulnerable to Covid-19.

Mr. Trump’s weakened standing with seniors is particularly important because of one demographic fact: Nearly every competitive state in the election is also home to large shares of people age 65 and older—larger than the national average.

Interviews and polling suggest that Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is weighing on the minds of older voters.

Asked whether the economy or coronavirus was more important to their vote for president, more seniors in the Journal/NBC News national survey picked coronavirus, the only age group to do so, though the preference among seniors was narrow. Seniors were also more likely than other age groups to say Mr. Trump was taking unnecessary risks with his own health when it comes to the virus.

Rallies Don't Equate to Turnout

Trump can cheer all they want and show up en masse at rallies. 

However, that does not win them votes among seniors or women. 

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Trump Supporters Entitled to their Own Opinions

Trump supporters are entitled to their own opinions, of course. But they act as if they are entitled to the opinions of others. 

Rally turnouts don't matter. Overall votes do. 

In 2016 Trump turned the election into a referendum on Hillary. This year, Trump turned the election into a referendum on Trump, and he is losing that referendum.

Why Trump Will Lose the Election in One Word

On October 16, I wrote Why Trump Will Lose the Election in One Word

The word was "women". It will be enough. But if you insist on another word, add "seniors".