No Bernie Bounce
Those expecting a big Bernie bounce following his close win over Pete Buttigieg in New Hampshire were mistaken.
His odds of winning the nomination fell.
And although Joe Biden lost support, he actually did much better than expected.
There are New Polls in Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia.
Michael Bloomberg is not competing until Super Tuesday and thus is not on the ballot in South Carolina or Nevada.
There was no Bernie bounce in South Carolina at all.
Curiously, Nate Silver at 538 has Sanders' odds of winning at 47% with Biden only a 37% shot.
That is based on the chance Biden might drop out.
"Part of the reason our model has Sanders as the favorite is that it thinks Biden could drop out before South Carolina even votes. In the scenarios where Biden is still in the race come Feb. 29, though, he is probably still favored in the Palmetto State," says Nate Silver.
While remotely possible, this is more than a bit too much modeling for me. A more likely reason for Biden slipping is what happens in Nevada.
Also, there's a bit of a curiosity here. Bloomberg is not even on the ballot but he is polling at 6%. Give most of those votes to anyone but Sanders.
Silver's model is way over-thinking this.
The primary was on February 11 and the poll was taken February 11 through 13 (can't the pollsters think?) but two of the three days are not overlapped.
There was a Bernie Bounce in Nevada but it appears to be at the expense of nobody.
The top line total is 87 so there is a missing 13 percentage points somewhere.
Silver has sanders odd of winning at 64% and Biden at 16%.
I think this will be close. And it's a caucus. How well Bernie does my very well depend on whether or not Warren can hit 15%.
Assume Warren, Steyer, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar all fail to hit 15%.
In that case Bernie is likely to get most of the Warren votes and Biden most of the rest. A strong 15+ vote for Buttigieg and Klobuchar but not Warren could result in a big win for Bernie. But a strong showing by Warren and a weak one for Buttigieg and Klobuchar can give a surprise win to Biden heading into South Carolina.
And don't forget the Nevada debate on February 19.
Bloomberg still needs one more qualifier. If he qualifies, he might land some punches on Sanders, Biden, or both.
There is no Bernie bounce in Georgia either despite the complete collapse of Warren. That's quite something.
Note the 105 delegate count. Sanders, as it stands, would get few, possibly none of them.
Expect Bloomberg's advertising to pull him in the money.
The Florida primary is on March 17. There is two weeks to recover or collapse after Super Tuesday which is on March 3.
Given the Florida demographics, I expect Bernie to do very poorly in Florida. And look at that massive 219 delegate count.
Also note that Bloomberg is in the lead.
Nate Silver thinks St. Pete Polls is biased.
"Adjusted for these house effects, our model interprets this poll as saying Biden has 25 percent support, Bloomberg has 21 percent, Sanders has 13 percent, Buttigieg has 10 percent and Klobuchar has 7 percent."
My non-model way of thinking says look at that enormous momentum for Bloomberg. I'll go with that.
But even with his model adjustments, Sanders is only at 13%. That gets Sanders approximately 5-10 delegates or so out of 219 (he will top 15% in some precincts).
That would be an outright disaster for Sanders.
If Sanders does not do exceptionally well on Super Tuesday, the split will make it nearly impossible for him to have a majority of delegates heading into the convention.
On that basis, I do not believe Bernie will be the Democratic nominee.
Barring an outright majority, the Super Delegates will kick in and they don't want Sanders.
Only extreme liberal fools believe a socialist has a better shot at beating Trump than Bloomberg, Biden, or Klobuchar.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock