Iowa Projection Analysis
Why is it 4 points?
For polls conducted on the same date by the same pollster, average the Likely Voters (LV) and ignore the Registered Voters (RV). See yellow highlights in the above chart.
538 Current Projection
538 still has Iowa in Trump's column, but barely.
In my My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes on October 13, I put Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio in Biden's column.
I expect all three to break for Biden unless he makes a major gaffe in the next debate, catches Covid, or some other unexpected event happens.
I expected the polls to change for Biden, and Iowa just did.
Silver waits for the polls, I will take a reasonable shot when I see one.
I expected the Monmouth poll and there it is.
Q: How confident am I of Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia?
A: Not very and neither is Silver.
Silver has Iowa 54-46 Trump, Georgia as 52-48 Trump, and Ohio as 50-50.
I have all three as 55-45 Biden.
- Trump keeps making gaffes. I expect him to keep making them.
- Polling momentum is in Biden's favor,
- Early voting is in Biden's favor.
- Trump is running out of money. Down the stretch Biden has over twice as much money as Trump.
- Covid, Covid, Covid. The attack on Fauci by Trump was just plain stupid.
- I suspect Trump made a fool of himself on 60 minutes but we will have to wait and see.
- In 2016 Trump turned the campaign into a referendum on Hillary. In 2020 Trump turned the campaign into a referendum on him.
- The Biden camp is clearly energized, not for Biden, but against Trump.
Despite the Monmouth poll, my odds did not change because I already expected such a result by a high quality pollster.
If we see further momentum in Biden's favor, expect to see Nate Silver at something like 55-45 Biden for Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio as well.
Poll of the Day
Siena College / The New York Times Upshot, another A+ rated pollster has Biden +3 in Iowa. The poll as Oct 18-20.
No surprise in this corner.