Spring Chickens
Warren is a youthful 70
Trump is 73
Biden is 77
Bloomberg is 78
Sanders is 78I have to admit Warren looks good for her age
But klobuchar is only 59
A veritable spring chicken when Biden keels overhttps://t.co/9TOx1kz7Dr— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 4, 2020
Biden Wins Texas
Maine coming up
10-4 in states if Biden hold Maine
Counting American Somoa it’s 10-4-1 with Bloomberg winning A.S.
A Word About Predictit
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1235086034473349121
Texas and Maine
Increasingly likely Biden wins both states.
CNN on Texas
I was watching CNN for the last half hour
They were are astonished Biden is in the lead. Three commentators called it the shock of the night.
How ridiculous. I called Texas for Biden.
The shocks of the night were Minnesota and Massachusetts.
Biden Now Ahead in Texas and Maine
What a blowout even if he marginally loses both
Looking Like 9, Possibly 10 For Biden
Cher is for Joe – Better Late Than Never?
I’M WITH JOE pic.twitter.com/RuVeTtv8GL
— Cher (@cher) March 4, 2020
Where’s the Tweet when it might have mattered?
Gender Gap
Bigger gender gap in VA exit polls than we’ve seen in other states, but the age gap is monstrous. Sanders wins 58% of 17-29 group while Biden wins 71% of 65+. Different worlds.
— Barry Burden (@bcburden) March 4, 2020
Appealing to the youth was not a winning strategy.
Sanders will get killed in Florida, assuming he stays in that long.
Excellent Summary
Jake Tapper just now on Biden:
“He is winning states that he did not even attempt to win.”
— Barry Burden (@bcburden) March 4, 2020
Donate Now – Warren Not Dropping Out
This is one that I admit confusion over although I have commented on in a number of posts.
Warren clearly cannot stand Sanders. And she purposely attacked him and cost him votes while spreading lies about things Sanders said.
Ideas?
California goes to Sanders
But it will be a week before we have totals.
It’s now meaningless.
Massachusetts for Biden
Warren the alleged great uniter cannot even win her home state.
Appeal to the Base Silliness
Appealing to the Base Silliness pic.twitter.com/8CceS3DRHE
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 4, 2020
Minnesota Called for Biden
It’s all over
Proud of my bold call Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye
Minnesota Called for Biden
It’s all over – Proud of my bold call
Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbyehttps://t.co/vgYndPgNK1
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 4, 2020
NY Times Assessment
I believe it may no be 7 states called for Biden
Expect Amusement
It’s going to be really amusing to see Trump lose in a landslide after all these taunts. https://t.co/vyCG1DfRzl
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 4, 2020
Late Swing for NC
I underestimated this a bit but did way better than Silver.
Really Bad Night
538: NATE SILVER 9:42 PM
Sarah, if Minnesota were to be called for Biden, his projection would shoot up to 1,944 delegates and Sanders’s would decline to 1,188. It would be a pretty big deal, and it would sort of make Texas a must-win state for Sanders to avoid a really bad night.
[Mish Comment – Excuse me for pointing out this is already a really, really bad night for Sanders]
Minnesota Update
538: GEOFFREY SKELLEY 9:43 PM
Much of Hennepin County (Minneapolis) has reported in Minnesota, and Biden is leading Sanders there by about 2 points, 35 percent to 33 percent. That’s a bit surprising to me, as the Twin Cities are the most liberal part of the state. Warren has 19 percent, though, so I wonder if she actually might be a bit of a spoiler for Sanders there.
[Mish Comment: As amazing as it seems – Biden is on the verge of pulling this off]
I expect Bloomberg to drop out and Endorse Biden
This from my inbox attributed to Bloomberg’s campaign manager, Kevin Sheekey, feels like wait-and-see equivocation re: dropping out. And as @micahcohen, (who’s sitting next to me rn) points out 1/3rd of the delegates is a lot!!! pic.twitter.com/I1zIQinU30
— Clare Malone (@ClareMalone) March 4, 2020
Where the FF is this Guy?
This is just like Brexit where Avid Remainer taunted me for months then failed to show up on election day.
Tennessee Update
538: NATHANIEL RAKICH 9:21 PM
With 49 percent of Election Day precincts reporting in Tennessee, it’s Biden 34 percent, Sanders 24 percent, Bloomberg 19 percent and Warren 9 percent. If those results hold, Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg will qualify for delegates.
[Mish comment: This is over. Warren will be shut out]
Oklahoma and Colorado Called – Mish Comment
Put Oklahoma in Biden’s column and Colorado in Sanders
The former rates to be lopsided. The latter I do not know.
Texas – Mish Comment
Sanders ahead 28.8 to 22.5 for Biden with 24.6% reporting
That’s unexpected
Maine – Mish Comment
Biden Sanders Tie – Another potential shocker if it holds – 18% reporting
Tennessee – Mish Comment
Biden starting to pull away as expected 30-24 with 28% reporting
Massachusetts – Mish Comment
Warren is in third place with 10.6% reporting
Quite a shocker if it holds
Alabama – Mish Comment
It’s now conceivable Biden gets a clean sweep or close to all the delegates.
That would be 52-0 delegates
I don’t expect that, but it’s possible.
I do expect it will be huge.
Tennessee 3-way Split?
538: NATHANIEL RAKICH8:48 PM
In Tennessee, with 14 percent of Election Day precincts reporting plus a good chunk of the early vote, it’s a notably close race. Sanders has 25 percent, Biden has 24 percent, Bloomberg has 23 percent and Warren has 10 percent. This was a state we expected Biden to win, so I suspect this is another case of the early vote being disproportionately good for Sanders, but this is worth watching.
Comment of the Day on Biden
538: CLARE MALONE 8:34 PM
I keep on thinking back to my chats with Biden campaign staffers and surrogates this summer when they were in the midst of a whole lot of bad news cycles about Biden and black voters, and they just kept saying that his strengths would lie in the South on Super Tuesday. Man, say what you will about Biden as a candidate, but that campaign had a theory of the case from the very beginning and they stuck with it: Be the moderate and meet the majority (or plurality) of the party where they are. Other candidates probably misjudged slightly how liberal the party base was willing to be. But that was always the Biden strategy.
[Mish: That matches my often stated view that candidates need to appeal to the center not the extremes]
Reflections on Touch Screen Voting
538: KALEIGH ROGERS 8:30 PM
I can’t help wondering if touchscreen voting machines are germ vectors. Yet another argument for hand-marked paper ballots!
Virginia – My Comment
It appears that Bloomberg and Warren may be shut out of Virginia
If so, that would be about a 70-30 split or 70 to Biden and 29 to Bernie.
Wow.
Update warren may win 1 delegate.
Alabama Called for Biden
Returns from Texas and Tennessee coming in
Comment on White Educated Women Voting for Biden, Not Warren
538: AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX 8:03 PM
One place where Biden is doing especially well: the northern Virginia suburbs, which are full of white college-educated women who I would have guessed would lean toward Warren. Makes me wonder if some of them decided to strategically vote for Biden in that surge of late deciders.
How Much Did Bloomberg Spend Per Vote?
538: GEOFFREY SKELLEY 7:56 PM
Would like to know how much money Bloomberg spent per vote in American Samoa.
[Mish Comment: Tulsi came close to winning I believe]
Biden Wins North Carolina
Note: I am following 2 live blogs and plucking off charts and comments that I find interesting
Interesting Thought on California
538: AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX 7:50 PM
The time differences in the results tonight are not very helpful to Sanders. Western states are where he’s strongest, but Biden’s first few East Coast wins are dominating television coverage right now. I wonder if that even ends up influencing some voters in places where people are still standing in line at the polls. (Cough cough, Los Angeles County!)
Bloomberg Wins American Samoa
538: GEOFFREY SKELLEY 7:43 PM
The best part about Bloomberg winning American Samoa is that we are forever guaranteed another color on 2020 primary maps, even if Bloomberg can’t win a single other contest.
538: NATHANIEL RAKICH 7:38 PM
We have full results from American Samoa, the only territory and only caucus of Super Tuesday! Bloomberg has won his first contest of the primary season. This is perhaps unsurprising, given that he had seven paid staffers in the territory and spent a lot of money on TV, digital and print ads there
James Comey Voted for Biden
Voted in first Dem primary to support party dedicated to restoring values in WH. I agree with @amyklobuchar: We need candidate who cares about all Americans and will restore decency, dignity to the office. There is a reason Trump fears @joebiden and roots for Bernie. #Biden2020
— James Comey (@Comey) March 3, 2020
Delays in NC – Polls Open Until 8:10 PM Supposed to close at 7:30
538: AARON BYCOFFE 7:06 PM
Virginia has 99 delegates to the national convention, and at poll closing, ABC News has assigned 16 of them to Biden. Eighteen more are available based on the statewide vote, and an additional 65 will be awarded based on the votes in Virginia’s 11 congressional districts.
538 PERRY BACON JR.6:54 PM Perhaps He Will
Vanity Fair is reporting that some of Bloomberg’s own staff wanted him to leave the race before voting today, post-South Carolina. The fact that such reporting has emerged gives me some sense that there is a decent chance that Bloomberg is leaving the race this week — I doubt his aides would let that out if he is running till the convention.
538: AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX 6:53 PM – Bloomberg Won’t Drop Out
Bloomberg’s campaign manager apparently just told reporters in Florida, “I think Mike Bloomberg is either the candidate for the party or the single most important person helping that candidate defeat Donald Trump” — but then added that he’s “absolutely not” dropping out tonight.
Virginia Called with 0% Reporting
Let’s see How I do
I have Biden with 55 delegates
Sanders with 29
Bloomberg with 7
Warren with 8https://t.co/vgYndPgNK1— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 4, 2020
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I’m on board with getting Sanders and Warren out and, from a playing with matches perspective, it is probably best that they are out soon.
After noticing Biden’s mental condition, I’m wondering why the Democrats would rally around him. Who is behind this? I think this will impact his chances of beating Trump. Though most of the Sanders and Warren supporters will vote for him. I don’t believe Biden will get the fed-up with Trump voters.
All of the Dems have lost their minds. Has any of them done the math on the clean energy stuff. Just quickly, there are about 40kWh of energy in a gallon of oil, 40 kWh /gal * 42gal/bbl = 1680 kWh in a barrel. A 200W solar panel collects about 1kWh in a day, so we need 1680 *20000000 =33.6Billion solar panels to offset just the oil. That’s about 100 solar panels for each man, woman and child in the country. This does not include gas or coal.
CA and Co not reporting thanks to Mail-In votes
I discussed this many times
California will count votes postmarked Yesterday. (How stupid is that?)
I believe Colorado is a high mail-in state too
Mish had Biden with 51 more than Sanders, and it appears that it is about 64 more for Biden. Very nice call.
I feel obligated to acknowledge that winning Samoa is not nothing, but for the same $800 million, he could probably have bought the entire island.
Don’t tell Trump that….
I hope the Libertarians nominate a decent choice this time. I will vote for them if so. Can’t vote for Biden.
Biden has 2 qualifications: he was Obama’s ‘don’t scare the white people’ prop, and he’s not trump. Other than that, he’s the same crooked corporate tool that both parties have been shoving at us for as long as I have been alive.
Looks like I’ll be writing in Camacho again.
Here is an interesting thing:
hmmmm….
Mail in Votes
I discussed this many times
California will count votes postmarked Yesterday.
I believe Colorado is a high mail-in state too
Mish, kudos to you on your predictions. You did way better than the MSM with your forecast.
Is it possible that Warren thinks she can be Biden’s VP by offering to bring the progressive wing with her?
I have talked to a lot of Bernie supporters and none of them would vote for Biden—they will just stay home. They believe the Pelosi-Schumer-Biden Democratic Party is corrupt and in bed with Wall Street and the military. Maybe they would get excited with Warren on the ticket?
The Bernie Hos, I mean the Bernie Bros are as bad as the Trumpanzees. Convinced that their candidate is anointed by God and he can do no wrong. I voted for Biden in Texas – he’s not the perfect candidate but if he can beat Trump that’s all that matters.
As of now, with 37% of CA precincts reporting Biden has 21% in California. As long as he maintains north of 15% percent then while not necessarily wining the plurality of the votes in the state, then he will most likely be the overall winner on Super Tuesday. Will be quite difficult for Bernie in the race from then on.
Mish still is holding out hope for his bet. Sure Biden will, have the whole corrupt system behind him but I think Trump will flatten him when he tries to smell Melania’s hair.
On the other hand, the odds will tilt greatly in the favor of the Dims if the bubble economy pops.
America agrees on few things, but one thing we all agree on is Bloomberg is a moron who wasted $500 million dollars.
Saw this on twitter” One potential loser tonight is campaigns. Like, in general.
Joe Biden had ONE field office in Virginia. Was outspent 7-to-1 by Sanders and almost 100-to-1 by Bloomberg in all super Tuesday States. Had barely campaigned in any states. And yet.”
Warren is clearly hurting Sanders in a few key states. As for Biden, he seems to be doing well in deep south and southern end of the Mid-west. All of those areas will go to Trump.
That’s It?
That’s all you have to say after your bravado?
The Cript Keeper versus Orange Julius. Maybe theyll both show up to the debates in walkers? This year’s election will be the Boomers last stand.
I want to cheer this development, but thinking about the economic landscape of 2024 dampens my enthusiasm significantly.
Biden is not a Boomer and Trump is barely one, but I agree with your point about the coming shift to younger candidates. Many think that the baton will skip straight past Gen X, but I’d like to see at least one Gen X president.
T’would be nice, but I doubt it will happen. Just not enough ‘loud clout’ in our generation.
I wistfully think there would be positives to having someone from a generation that actually grew up both without and then with connected computers/computing devices to communicate with both sides of that divide. I think living that transition allows understanding of science and progress while still understanding how interpersonal skills are important.
Mish – Thanks!
Just saw Warren….
She is the Textbook definition of “ego”… she truly believes that she’s the “best” person to be President… wow…
She’s in for the duration…
I believe she is
And as called – This helps Biden
Well….looks like I over estimated Warren’s stamina.
But, she’s apparently pouting and not endorsing anyone…
She will quit this week, she can’t possibly stay in after today
Please don’t say “can’t possibly”
Her vindictiveness to Sanders might easily keep her in.
She has funding to last through March
The only thing to do her in is a Sanders concession or a Bloomberg endorsement of Biden
Those would put Biden over the top.
It sure seems like the end is near
Sanders just doesn’t connect at all in The South, does he?
I guess the question then becomes, will any Democrat do so, in the general? Or will the DNC end up doing the equivalent of the GOP picking their candidate, based on who is most popular in California?
Great point, it all escapes MISH. Biden is the weakest establishment candidate ever to run. It’s beyond joke.
Biden ahead in Maine and Tied in MA – both shockers but early
I feel better. This proves we can’t be bought, Bloombucks, but it leaves open yet whether we can be conned…by the current socialist standard bearer.
Good point! If Hilary and Jeb! didn’t prove it in the last election, Bloomberg has definitely proven this time that money can’t buy elections. That says something positive about the American people.
My kinda forecast:
How Idiotic – And ridiculous to Tweet
Just curious: did you block it? I can’t see it.
In any case, here’s how it’s going to go:
Biden will pull ahead for a while, enough to lock the Bernistas out.
Warren stays in to help diminish his votes and parlay that service into a VP slot or whatever.
Bloomberg stays in because his billions are there to keep the House and win back the Senate and he can only spend that much legally as a candidate not a contributor. ( His ads will be more anti-Trump than pro-Bloomberg per se. )
So: a brokered convention.
Warren or Buttboy as VP’s to keep as many disappointed progressives voting as possible.
Bloomberg will stay on the ticket for same reason, but maybe as VP (or am I wrong here and after the nomination process is over neither Trump nor Bloomberg are allowed to self-finance any more?)
Main goal: keep the House, win back the Senate, then impeach Trump or Lame Duck him to death. If they can win WH, great, but it’s hard to do without any viable candidates.
Re: ‘hard to do (win WH) without viable candidate:’
Unless this writer is correct:
As far as I am concerned, these elections are mainly theater even though most of the voters are sincerely participating in them. It’s important for the population to feel they live in viable democracies with free and fair elections and that their vote counts and that their governments are doing more or less what they collectively want. The elections are the main mechanism for engendering that faith.
Can’t happen with our well developed duopoly. Both parties are thoroughly corrupt, so they lose popularity once in power and cannot maintain the upper hand for long.
There will never be another Reagan/Mondale electoral map.
Tulsi wins a delegate from American Somao, still alive!
What a contrast between Tulsi and the other candidates, all of whom are over 70!
Bloomberg is not a good candidate. Stumbles around questions, alienates many with his petty tyrant moves involving, well, pretty much everything.
Agreed – I did not realize how bad he was until I saw him on stage.
He makes Biden look good
If Biden wins/steals the nomination, his debates with Trump will be some of the most cringe worthy TV since “Who Wants to Marry a Multi-Millionaire”. Neither can enunciate a coherent policy, but Trump knows how to work a crowd and can take Joe to the mat with ease. Trump would win bigly without having to take an actual position on anything.
Please think
Trump will get killed
I cannot imagine Biden surviving one debate with Trump. He is just not “all there” mentally. For Chr**t’s sake, he looks older than Methusalah. It’s pathetic – even cruel – that the establishment is pushing this guy as their candidate cum puppet.
Unless the economy is completely off the rails by election season and Trump has mis-handled the Coronavirus crisis (yes, possibilities) I cannot see how Biden does not get slaughtered in the general. Bernie supporters will NOT turn out for him.
I could say it any better. Biden is a last cause. I don’t even know if he has a stated platform.
I just don’t see Biden doing well at all. He would have rehearsed statements, but Trump would throw him off with his usual bombast. Once they go off script, Biden doesn’t think well on his feet. By that I mean that Biden was never great at it, and with his recent “senior moments” he’s gotten noticeably worse.
Debates dont matter. If they did mitt Romney would have been president
All this talk of Biden “stealing” the election. GET OVER IT. People voted in droves for Biden. THEY VOTED. Nobody stole anything. The turnout in Virginia was up 68% – and all for Biden.