Election Night Needles
One great place to watch is Election Needles by Nate Cohn.
Cohn explains the methodology and reasons for those states in Needle Update: What to Expect on Election Night
Our three “needle” battleground states will be Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, for a simple reason: These states give us the kind of data we need to offer accurate estimates of the final vote. They report the results in unmatched detail, so our estimates might even be better than usual in these states.
Better still, these states count their votes relatively quickly. They have experience with absentee voting, and they close their polls early in the night. Much of the vote in North Carolina and Florida is expected to be counted by 8 p.m. Eastern.
The core issue is that election results early in the evening are usually not representative of the final vote. Sometimes, only one kind of vote — like mail-in ballots or Election Day votes — has been counted. Other times, reported results are from only one part of a state. You would need to be a bit of an expert to figure out whether a 20-point Trump lead in the early Virginia results is a) to be expected; b) a sign of a Trump landslide; c) actually a sign of an unexpectedly large Biden win.
So why Florida, North Carolina and Georgia?
They give us the results broken down by vote method. We’ll have a very good estimate of what kinds of votes are left, in addition to where. Other states just don’t release the data in the level of detail that we need.
Better still, all three states release copious data to let us make these estimates particularly well. They will release the results not only by method, but also by precinct — a much finer level of geographic detail than we’ve typically had. This means that we’ll have a good idea whether the remaining Election Day vote in Miami-Dade County is in a Democratic or Republican part of the county.
538 Election Live Blog
Also consider 2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage by Nate Silver and the 538 staff.
Election Night Scorecard
Finally, please consider my Election Night Scorecard: Here’s What to Watch
There are 12 key states and quite a few will be fast
Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin will all likely be fast.
North Carolina and Ohio have reservations depending on how close the election is.
Mish
It’s also a politically fairly progressive place that was first (or nearly so) to lots of legislation that was later picked up by other states (off the top of my head I can think of legal cannabis and euthanasia, but I know there were others).
It’s also a politically fairly progressive place that was first (or nearly so) to lots of legislation that was later picked up by other states (off the top of my head I can think of legal cannabis and euthanasia, but I know there were others).
My Blog: link to dirtbikeadvisor.com
Everyone thinks this comes down to one state or another but the reality is Biden will/has won with 270 votes, and that can easily be attributed to the city of Omaha.
AP projects that Biden has won Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. It’s worth one electoral vote, but takes away a district Trump won in 2016 — and keeps open a path by which Biden could lose Pennsylvania and still win the presidency.
That is right, Biden flipped Omaha and without it he would only have 269 electoral votes. Not enough. He would have to take PA, NC, or GA and there is a decent chance Trump will hold those.
This means the one single electoral vote Biden has won by is the city of Omaha Nebraska.
Thank you Warren Buffet.
A bastion of urban, small as it is in a sea of red repression.
You can quit reading here except if you are interested in my story. My mother’s fiance died in a head on crash with a logging truck just weeks before they were to marry. That was summer 1966, and I loved Dave. He was from North Platte, Nebraska and my Mom was pregnant. In our small northern California town, my father was a very handsome narcissistic drunk trouble maker who’s best aspect was his huge schlong. He did nothing but make trouble for my mother after she divorced him, refused child support on the flimsiest of grounds, and back then there was no government help in that respect, mom would have to hire a lawyer and sue for non payment like any creditor. While his kids went hungry.
When Dave was killed she decided to move us away and we went to North Platte Nebraska. I had never seen snow, never been in land with no beaches or ocean. It was all so new and interesting I enjoyed it, the scrawny little trees, no redwoods there. A river that looked like a lot of wet sand. Flies that turned the sky black because they had the second largest stockyard outside Chicago (back then anyway). North Platte looked like a big city to my little kid eyes, the post office had an elevator, there were no elevators back home.
They had blizzards and tornadoes, mosquitoes the size of hummingbirds. All my life the hottest temperature I had known was about 70 and that was rare. It got over 100 all the time in Nebraska. I heard my first Mexican radio station there. Gas was 21 cents a gallon.
Then Mom moved us to Lincoln, over 100,000 people – a real city. My siblings and I ran amoke in the capitol building, it has a catacomb structure down at ground level that looks like a brownish Ministry of Magic from Harry Potter, there were barrel vaults and long halls, you could stand in one and the echos were superb, everything you said could be heard perfectly 100 feet away at the next barrel vault. You could take the elevator with a great uniformed man working the lever to the top of the building, about 24 floors up, it was awesome to step out into a giant open space with a gold dome, you could spend hours looking at the mosaics. When you see them you understand so much more about who the people of Nebraska really are.
That domed space had like six arches out to a cat walk around the top of the building, you could see almost all the way to Omaha 60 miles away.
Dad won one battle and Mom had to send us back to him in 1969 to California because really women had no rights they could not pay for back then. He had lawyers. So we went to Omaha on the Burlington Northern train and talk about HUGE cities, they must have had five or six buildings bigger than the capitol in Lincoln. The city seemed to go on forever.
Well this was a child’s view in the mid sixties.
Everything has changed. some for the better, and some not so much. I see republicanism as trying to take us back to that era. Where women, if they have any rights at all are secondary to the men who are first citizens to their second.
Where women have a choice between giving up their kids and being forced to become whores to support them. Her wage at Singer was a bucjk and a quarter per hour. Till her boss started to demand hand jobs then blow jobs. She was pretty and that attracted a lot of that kind of thing, but she had no choice. She had 4 kids to feed and house and clothe without support from Dad, even if he complied with the child support order it was only $50 per month!
I suppose she decided if she had to give blow jobs for a living she might as well move to better venues so she quit that job and accepted an offer to work as a cocktail waitress that the one and only golf country club there. No wage only tips. I can tell you what women had to go through then just to survive and feed their kids would make you blush and you would simply deny that ever happened, but that was life till democrats and courts changed things, and even that took many years.
I am not going back there, and I resent even having to think about what my dear mother had to do to keep her kids alive and well. I HATE republicanism, they act like it is natural and normal to give women a choice between being labeled a whore and or submitting to a man that is a god just because he has a penis. Women had NO RIGHTS as recently as 1970 except on paper.
There is no way I would ever conform to GOP norms because they are sick. Seriously mentally ill. And the entire social infrastructure backed them, and you wonder why people reject your GORGEOUS lie about the nuclear family and how we should all just submit to your idea of social order?
All I can say is I would rather die all those ills you predict than live your life of silent desperation, and I have not even begun to talk about your gay kids.
Your life of denial is great for you so live it, but the moment you demand others do you become less than dirt.
1:28 eastern time, I am calling it for Biden, everyone but 270 to win has called NV and AZ for Biden and I just looked at WI and MI and there are not enough votes left for Trump to overcome the Biden lead slim as it is. That gives him 270 on the dot, and by the way, Maine is officially now in the Biden column. (WI just reported at 11:26 to have 100% of the vote counted and Biden has won by 20,000) Steve Vladeck: 20,697 is a small-enough margin for Trump to request a recount under Wisconsin law (he’s within 1% of Biden), but a big-enough margin where the recount has almost no meaningful probability of affecting the result.
What this means is Trump now has no path to victory, the remaining states are PA, NC, and GA and he can’t win even with all three, he comes up short.
In fact he also just called for a recount in WI and it will do him no good. Really, he is acting like a guy that thinks they have to have miscounted because he planted enough fake ballots (had a USPS worker steal dem ballots and insert new ballots with votes for him maybe?) he knows he had to have won it.
It is very cartoonish, if the state certifies Biden as winner there is damned little Trump can do.
In other news, California voters made the right choice by deciding to exempt Uber and Lyft from the kind of onerous labor laws guaranteed to put them out of business.
This comes as a pleasant surprise to me. Would have posted this in community but it seems to be down right now.
Yes and Oregon just legalized magic mushrooms, got out of there just in time.
It just decriminalizes possession of psylocibin and paves the way for psychedelics to be used to treat depression and mental illness, something that science happens to support, btw.
They also appear to be passing Prop 110 that decriminalizes possession of small quantities of heroin…..and allows for treatment as a way to avoid jail…which is excellent policy.
psilocybin…..failed the psychedelic spelling test
Comparing Silver’s ribbon chart to results, Biden won everything from Minnesota to the end, and Trump won everything from Ohio back to his end. In the middle:
Wisconsin Biden+8.3, Actual so far Biden +0.6%, Trump 7.7% better
Michigan Biden +8.0 Biden +1, Actual so far Biden +0.2%, Trump 7.8% better
Nevada Biden +6.1, Actual so far, Biden +0.6%, Trump 5.5% better
Pennsylvania Biden +4.7, Actual so far Trump +10.1%, Trump 14.8% better
NE2 Biden +3.2, Actual so far, Biden +6.5%, Biden 3.3% better
Arizona Biden +2.6, Actual so far Biden +3.4%, Biden 0.8% better
Florida Biden +2.5, Actual so far Trump +3.4%, Trump 5.9% better
North Carolina Biden +1.7, so far Trump +1.4%, Trump 3.1% better
ME2 Biden +1.6, so far Trump +6.6%, Trump 8.2% better
Georgia Biden +0.9%, Actual so far Trump +2.2%, Trump 2.3% better
So, in most areas, the results were in the margin of error, but some states were way off, notably Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. In many, or most of these states, as they finish up counting the absentee ballots, the expectation would be for a slight shift towards Trump, so the results will be closer to the polls than they are now, but still, those four states are far, far outside the polls.
It would appear that the pollsters are going to have to go back to the drawing board, yet again, to find some way to get more accurate numbers in a day and age where people are harder to contact, and less willing to tell the truth about their opinion. Nevertheless, Silver did a good job of tabulating the data, and identifying the battleground states.
Meant to say that as absentee ballots are cast there will most likely be a shift towards Biden. The edit feature is not working, so I can’t correct it.
This presidential election confirmed that we are a deeply divided country. This election is almost a rerun of 2016 except for the fact that this time a widely despised Republican nominee ran against a less objectionable Democratic candidate. It is sad that the primary system of voting has not produced better candidates. I suspect the Republicans would win handily if we had two evenly matched well qualified candidates.
So…even if Biden pulls his chestnuts out of the fire, we can see that the populist sentiment in this country is very strong…..and in an election that shouldn’t have been this close, there is plenty to consider..
To most Americans it’s still like football. You pick your team and buy the merchandise…and sit in front of the TV and root for your team no matter how good or how bad the quarterback happens to be.
I get that Biden is a flawed candidate….and the Democrats have a deeply flawed platform with a real agenda and a false narrative cover story. Maybe that’s why a moron like Trump can still pull in so many votes.
But the danger of voting for a man who would be king is that one day you wake up and find out he has made himself king….and that the game is over for representative government.,
Looking at the map at Axios, they have called AZ for Biden and show 1 Elector in NE, 3 in Maine, but not called those states, 6 more in NV will go to Biden though it is not called.
They have the EC vote count now at Biden 238 to 213.
Witn NV’s 6, ME’s 3, NE’s 1 that puts Biden at 248. So Biden does not even need PA to win, all he has to get is WI and MI and that looks likely now. That would put him at 274. Pennsylvania can count till the next election and it will do Trump no good. But seriously, PA needs to get it’s shit together on their election laws. It would appear to me that they are the unending hangnail on the US electoral process, their rules they will tell you reflect the desire to have an unambiguous winner beyond question, yet this time they are perhaps the most suspect and certainly going to be dead last in counting. I am all in favor of counting every single valid ballot, but I also say no one state should be holding up the outcome time after time like this.
Ther election laws need to conform to a standard that would allow every single vote to count, IN A REASONABLE TIME! Any state can have an issue that is exceptional like the 2000 vote in FL that drags things out forever, but PA seems to just enjoy dragging it out and being in the spotlight. They are damaging the credibility of the electoral system.
I think it is time for the federal elections commission to set a minimum standard that all states must come up to that includes maximum protection for voters and the safety against frauds, while at the same time seeing to it that votes can be tabulated in less than 24 hours after polls close.
In the meanwhile we adhere to the existing laws, but it is way past time for states to put adequate resources into the electoral infrastructure so that their rules do not constitute voter suppression, and they should be required to adopt methods that are modern and safe.
Well, it’s morning in Texas and it’s still not done. Proving once again that going to bed early was the best idea.
Just looking at the numbers, it still looks way too close to call. Worst possible situation.
I say ditto, glad I did not drink a lot of wine and wake with a hangover, and went to bed pretty early, I did check in at about 2:30 when the old bladder woke me though. Basically in the same place now as then. But, if you look at the Axios map (they have called AZ for Biden) all Biden needs is to hang on to MI and WI now to have 274 and a win, PA can go rot, they will still be counting on New Years Eve from the looks of it.
NV = 6 ME =3 NE =1, these have not been called but will be for Biden. That = 248, with the 26 in MI/WI that is 274 and the White House, no wonder Trump is screaming about going to the SCOTUS and his brand new handmaiden’s “unbiased” selection just in time to throw the election to Trump.
Very disappointed in Biden’s performance especially in his must win Northern States. I think when the analysis is done the cause will be in going with Harris over Klobuchar. Harris is from California a state Biden was always going to carry. Also think the progressives made too much noise , bragged and boasted too much of what role they were going to have and the combination scared off needed white voters. It was never too noticeable but Biden’s numbers seemed to decline a bit after selecting his running mate.
There is no question that you are right here. Going with a Senator from an extremely progressive state, and with one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate last year helped appease the Sanders/Warren wing of the party, but did not help in the Midwest. Similarly, talk of putting Sanders and Warren on the Cabinet hurt them with middle America. If Biden loses, it was a self-inflicted wound.
If Biden ends up pulling this off, millions will cry foul and things will get interesting. This is exactly the sort of election the US didn’t need, a closely contested one decided through absentee ballots after election day.
disappointed that the race is still so tight at this time. I think the real loser is the USA. The once great USA has topped and is sliding down.
Nate Cohn NYT
An important factor in Georgia: a lot of the remaining vote in the Atlanta area is actually early and absentee, which is especially good for Biden. A reversal of what we’ve been doing most everywhere else
Nate Cohn NYT
Biden is ahead by 5 in Nevada now that we’ve got the early vote in Clark and Washoe. That’s probably enough, and it did loom as a potential complication for Biden after some of the results in heavily Latino parts of FL/TX
Silver just caught up to my 85% chance
That 1 EV significantly reduces the odds of a tie
Silver: If you just go by what ABC News has called (we’re on the conservative side tonight)… Biden’s win probability would go from 69% to 85% based on NE-2 being called! That one electoral vote makes a huge amount of difference.
What are you smoking?
There are many absentee ballots to be counted. It has been expected by both sides that those will favor Biden. Will they shift states like Georgia to Biden? Possibly, but we won’t know for a few days, it would seem.
GA is up for grabs.
About 85% confident of a Biden win now.
Curiously about where I was yesterday
NYT on Georgia
Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count.
NYTimes says 99% of counties have reported absentee votes. Trump is currently up by about 300K
81% reporting
Arcane
Biden Now Expected to Win Georgia by NYT needle model despite trailing all night
Needle Broken or huge Atlanta Surge?
I don’t know
Biden down over 302K votes, nearly 7.3%.
He has to make up lots of ground with those 2 counties + Cobb, and it’s not like the red counties are totally done county.
More than likely Biden wins 1 in NE and perhaps loses one in ME
so there are chances of a tie
Because of arcane rules Trump will win a 269-269 tie
Edit:
By arcane, I actually meant complicated or not well understood. Most would assume a house vote would go Democratic. Not so.
Please explain this. Nate Silver says tie goes to the House.
Yes, any failure of a candidate to secure less than 50% of the EC vote goes to the House.
But the House vote is by state delegation, the GOP has majority in 26 state delegations and is expected to hold them. If the House can’t decide, the Senate gets to pick the VP and he acts as President until the House decides.
So Biden needs to secure 270 EC votes or it goes to Congress, who gives it to the GOP (fun side note: they could pick anybody, doesn’t have to be Trump).
And it’s early, but it looks like the GOP will hold the Senate.
GOP lost AZ and CO, gained AL (expected).
Collins is holding on in Maine (unexpected R hold).
James may upset Peters in Michigan (unexpected R pickup).
Ernst holding on in Iowa (toss-up, R holding).
PA House seats currently split 9-9.
It looks like GOP is about to pick up 3 seats there, making it 12-6.
If there is no electoral college majority and it goes to the House, the GOP will now have 27/50 delegations instead of 26/50.
NE-2 called for Biden. I don’t think Trump has a shot at ME-2 now. Rules out a tie.
NV / GA / WI and Biden needs to run the table for all 3 to win.
Thanks for the explanation.
It appears NV/MI/WI is sufficient for Biden now.
Biden likely to win NV (up by 2.5% with 79% counted).
Biden might win WI (down by 4% with 80% counted — we’ll know in an hour or two, but Trump lead is holding and Milwaukie alone not enough to close it).
I think Trump has Michigan. PA too. If he wins PA, MI and WI, losing GA and NV won’t matter.
4 incumbent CA House members losing their reelection bids, 3 GOP, 1 Dem, including Devin Nunes.
Net +2 in the House for Dems from CA (all still too close to call).
1/2 the vote counted in PA.
Trump up by 500,000 votes.
3 incumbent House Democrats losing their reelection bids.
PA-7, PA-8 and PA-17 (56%, 80% and 27% reporting, respectively).
Fox News called AZ for Biden
Biden has multiple paths again assuming AZ is correct
NV MI WI
NV MI PA
MI PA WI
Still chances in NC and GA
wth is up in Nevada? still no results.
Nevada has polls open late (because their workers showed up late this morning).
They won’t start reporting until all polls have closed.
According to the needles, GA is now leaning Biden 63%. Think there were significant issues there.
Trump takes it Mish. You can start drinking early. You blew this one really bad.
Fox News called AZ for Biden
potential 270 on the nose for Biden without PA
More than likely Biden wins 1 in NE and perhaps loses one in ME
so there are chances of a tie
Because of arcane rules Trump will win a 269-269 tie
What arcane rules? Something in the U.S. Constitution on how the U.S. House of Representative tie breaker is 1) determined by newly elected reps; and 2) on that basis, one state, one vote. I thought the Constitution was a prop in a Nicholas Cage movie.
I meant complicated
People might assume with Democrats solidly holding the House that they would win
Silver: New Mexico is a fairly unique state, but it’s a mildly good sign for Biden in Arizona and Nevada that it’s been called for him. His apparent problems with Latino voters in Florida may not have translated to the Southwest.
If Biden wins AZ NV MI and WI
I believe he can get to 270 on the nose without Pennsylvania
He spent four years golfing and people still voted for him. I’ll never get it
You will never get it because you let your emotions run your life instead of your brain. Donald Trump will live in there for four more years. I will be here just to remind you you are a usual idiot.
It worked for Ike. Golden years of U.S. Fore!
Ah sleepy, I see what has been called and I did my count of the remainder and I say Biden has AT LEAST 275 EC Votes. He is going to flip AZ, and at least two of the three blue wall states which would be enough for him to win, very possibly Iowa though too early to tell. Georgia and NC too close to call, Texas still too early to call, that is amazing. But I do not see Trump flipping any Hillary states and Biden already flipped one trump state. Ah they just called CA.
Trump may flip VA.
Going to be close. If he does, that’s a major shocker.
My EC count right now is Trump 247 Biden 231.
Biden needs to run the table with the remaining toss-ups.
My money would be on Trump at this point.
I was not worried about VA ajc, for whatever reason Fairfax County is always very slow to come in and always overwhelmingly dem. I lived in Alexandria a couple miles from Mt. Vernon after college for a year and it was frustrating to watch.
But I was not worried about that one. VA has become a blue state.
VA is very blue.
That’s why seeing it so close for so long was a shocker to me.
It always is that close on early returns, but it also always goes blue by enough to overcome most red counties, it is just always slow to report. And there is a reason for that. It is a large diverse urban population center. It takes a lot of time to get all the votes in and properly counted.
They have to open envelops, check signatures, feed clean stacks of ballots into machines and double check the results. It is easy to count and report votes in rural republican precincts, if there are only 20,000 people in your county and only half vote. And so many small rural counties report so quickly it looks like the republicans are winning, but many hours (or days) later the big slow millions of urban votes come in.
Trump does not want that. He wants voting stopped in states where he is ahead before all that can be done so he can say he won. Where Biden is leading Trump not only wants counting to go on after Biden has won he wants it counted again because he just cannot believe he lost and since it is all about him he demands courts do what he says. Rule of law be damned.
The election happened and Biden/Harris won. It is really over. Really it is.
The right does not want to accept that, but reality is what it is. Close? Sure, but the right was so certain they had the “socialists” in the bag. Yet they lost. It is the will of the people and nobody is going to change that.
Am I angry? Of course but what can you do? Should I vet all businesses and workers and services and tell them that if they want my money they have to prove they were for Biden first?
As Biden would say just stop that shit, give me a hug and let’s move on. I am a disabled veteran that served our nation so you would have the voice you had yesterday. And it sounds corny but I thank all who voted because that is what makes our republic live. It is the difference between us and Iran. No place else can have such a contentious political dogfight and go back to work building and working like our America does. And we have been through a lot worse than Donald Trump even if he did seek to kill our democracy, he failed.
If you are on the other side America has been through a lot worse than Biden will be for you. You may even come to love him, I voted against Obama but have come to admire him as one of our best presidents, right up there with Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy, and I hope Biden one day.
So let’s all have a hug, because you are all my brothers even if you did not win this one fight.
I’m not so much on either side, I’m just hoping no single party controls the House, Senate and White House.
Now that Biden is like a 99% lock on the White House, I’m taking a side on the Senate… rah rah GOP.
Also, the Dem Party platform and its sharp turn left concern me more than Joe Biden or Kamala.
Time for the country to support the new Prez and put all this behind us.
Too close to call. I’m going to bed. If Trump wins I go fishing…if Biden wins I go fishing.
I meant 241 Trump, 231 Biden. No difference though.
TX, NC, GA, OH, FL all going to Trump.
AZ, NH and probably IA going to Biden.
Biden’s hopes down to these 5 states:
NV – supposedly going Biden, not so sure. no results reported yet.
PA, MI and WI – the expected toss-ups, Trump currently leading.
VA — unexpected toss-up.
Iowa just tightened. Not just Trump/Biden, but the Senate seat that has been a toss-up.
65% reporting, nearly all the urban vote counted:
Biden over Trump by 0.4%.
Greenfield (D) over Ernst (R, inc) by 0.1%
These are going to float back to the GOP, but they’ll be in re-count territory.
The story of 2020 will be the Hispanic vote. Major shift to Trump compared to 2016.
I must say it feels like Trump is outperforming.
Well, Trump, or someone. There is out performing and there is polls allegedly being wrong by 10-20% again? As if they learned nothing in ’16.
Polls are not votes. If they were we wouldn’t need elections.
Yes, but they ARE a science, and while statistics can vary depending on many factors they cannot vary by that much that consistantly. This is a repeat of 2016, though that election they were off by a plausible amount in almost all cases, there were nevertheless anomolies that strech credulity in that election as well. Then to have this election have so many races but only in certain swing states that so conveniently deliver Moscow Mitch a returning majority when the senate was so favored to flip, or the oddness of republicans passing a tripling of the minimum wage in FL and by such a wide margin, No Sechel, it may be theoretically possible but it is not plausible, there are selected races that just do not pass the smell test and they universally favored the GOP. AZ flipped, but it was called to flip by a wide margin, if it had gone GOP after months of being seen to flip then it come to about as close as can be to proof of rigging, there is a margin at which anything may or may not happen, and then there is a fat tail so unlikely that an exact tie would be just about as probable. Math professors would say it is NOT possible. Especially not two elections in a row, and especially not when it favors one over the other twice, and most especially not when the one it favors is a known cheater.
I believe Biden just won Arizona
Trump’s lead in Michigan and Wisconsin are both a mirage
Milwaukee not yet reporting
Without them, Biden is going to have a hard time winning.
Trump was holding his own in the urban Detroit counties… for a while leading them, now down to 47% in Oakland county and 43% in Wayne county. That’s with 50+% of the vote counted in Oakland, 30% counted in Wayne.
Michigan might not just be a surprise Trump win — it may be a Senate seat pickup w/Peters.
Doing this math quickly, but Biden leads by about 145,000 votes in Arizona’s Maricopa County early and absentee votes. Republicans won the Election Day vote today there by 34,000 votes, so that looks like it would not be enough for Trump to overcome Biden’s current lead.
In case you still harbored any hope of getting a projection in Pennsylvania tonight, 274,000 mail ballots in Philadelphia County won’t be counted until tomorrow at the earliest. These votes are likely to be overwhelmingly for Biden.
I saw that last night around 10:30 and decided to go to bed because we are not going to know the outcome of this election till every ballot in PA is counted, there was no point staying up.
UH-OH…… guess there will be some pollsters out of work tomorrow. Its really pretty disgusting and the lap dog media just suck it up….unbelievable. Even if Trump ends up loosing what a joke (the polls not the loss). Hope these guys aren’t counting COVID deaths for us…. its worth watching CNN melt down… better than any Saturday night live lately…. My polling says if Trumpolini wins CNN ratings will go through the roof!
Excuse me for pointing out that all the polls Trump supporters cited were off more in the other direction.
Polls well within margins of error.
Florida was a big miss however.
FL was a huge miss Mish, and a suspicious one as far as I am concerned since the democrat favored – GOP hated minimum wage increase to $15 per hour initiative on the ballot passed by 60.8%.
One thing is clear….the polls were pretty far off again. They showed big leads for Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin. So much for that.
Looks like Trump has the overall edge now, but it’s a tight race. No matter how it turns out this is potentially the most volatile situation for the country. A comparative “landslide” in one direction or the other would have probably been healthier. I know it’s been discussed a lot, but it really could get combustible in the coming weeks and months.
Kind of funny how close US elections usually are. With a two party system, that can only happen in two scenarios: either the two parties are both great and it’s tough to choose between them, or they’re both terrible and require a lot of psychological effort to support. I think we all know which of those two scenarios we’re in.
AZ looks solid for Biden.
Lots of Chicago area retirees. Like the dry air.
Arizona’s pretty important here, obviously. If Trump wins Georgia, Florida and North Carolina but loses Arizona, his chances fall to 20 percent. If he wins Arizona in addition to Georgia, Florida and North Carolina, his chances improve to 55 percent instead, as Biden is then almost entirely dependent on the Midwest.
Silver: Chris Christie just said on ABC that he thinks Trump will win Ohio by 1 to 2 points. Maybe … but, if so, it’s not such a bad result for Biden in terms what it implies for other states because that’s basically what the polls showed there. If Biden loses Ohio by 1 or 2, he’s probably winning Pennsylvania, in other words.
Look’s like Nate Silver is going to be wrong again. This time even more wrong than 2016.
very wrong.
Does he like the Cubs to win the World Series this year?
Silver: I’ve been looking a bit at Johnson County, KS (wealthy KC suburbs) where Biden is +8 with 98 percent reported. Trump won it by +3 in 2016. If that Johnson Co. result is as complete as claimed, would be a good sign for Biden in other Midwestern suburbs.
Ohio Live
JoJo has 3X votes as the margin between Biden and Trump.
Ranked choice voting would have been interesting in this one.
Biden’s lead has shrunk to 3.5 points in Ohio, where Trump now leads among in-person votes, countering Biden’s absentee advantage. One positive for Biden, though, is that Cleveland and Cincinnati haven’t reported as much of their returns as the state overall.
They cancelled The Christmas Story 10K this year, so no post-race lunch at Grump’s for me. Great event, so sad!
Meant Grumpy’s in Tremont neighborhood in Cleveland.
Silver on Ohio
In Ohio, Biden leads by 18 points among absentee votes and by 2 points among in-person votes. So, that sounds really good for Biden, right? Well, maybe, but we may be seeing the early in-person votes reported first, which are likely better for Biden than the ones cast on Election Day.
Silver on Florida
Again, I just think it’s really tricky to get an overall sense of the state of things across the country. Florida is likely to go for Trump. Beyond that, the big shift to early and mail voting makes it hard to calibrate models and expectations and hard to know what to think. My best guess is that the polling error in Florida may not be as large elsewhere in the country, especially since it seems to have been concentrated among Cuban voters, a group not present in big numbers elsewhere. But it’s hard to know. It feels like we’re waiting for the next big domino to fall ever since we heard that Trump got those good results in Miami-Dade.
I always thought Denninger knew something was up when he left Florida(?)
Going for champagne. If they call Texas for Biden before I get back start celebrating without me. He’s currently up by 14.
If you want TX predictions, this random Dem on Twitter is the best I’ve seen over the last 2 weeks: link to twitter.com
He said that he’s not allowed to “call” the election.
But he’s been running county-by-county numbers on what Dems need in each to beat Trump, doing a regression analysis vs. Beto in 2018 and Trump in 2016.
He admits outright that he’s biased/pro-Dem. Still, he seems data driven.
Biden slightly ahead with most urban county results in…..really expecting it to reverse when more rural counties report. Cornyn leading Hegar by one point at the moment.
Actually it looks to me like we might NOT know who won the POTUS race tonight.
With Florida , North Carolina and Georgia all looking to go for Trump….it’s looking like it won’t be any kind of pushover for Biden….not at all.
I think we’ll know tonight.
It’s not looking like Trump will need PA to win.
Once again the Democrats might manage to wrest defeat out of the jaws of victory. they’re good at it.
They learned all the wrong lessons from 2016.
Not sure who is more responsible for Trump, the DNC or NYT/WaPo/CNN.
It’s odd. I’m watching this election, curious how the results will compare to the polls, but not caring at all who wins.
I don’t want either to win… I want trump to lose. I want to see his boo boo face again.
I wanted both to lose.
Well, actually, I wanted all 3 parties of interest to lose: Trump, the DNC and the MSM.
Biden is hardly involved and I feel a little bad for him.