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New York Time Election Needle

Here's the NYT Election Needle.

Live Mish Blog 8:40 EST - Newest Comments LAST

Warnock vs Loeffler 16% Reporting

Warnock vs Loeffler 16% Reporting

Warnock vs Loeffler 16% Reporting

Ossoff vs Perdue 16% Reporting

Important Points

  1. It's not who is in the lead that matters but where the votes are coming from
  2. The needle is based on how well a candidate is doing vs expectations 

Those are the key ideas behind the needle.

Update 9:00 PM EST: Nate Silver Comment

Turnout Speculation 538

Turnout Speculation

29% Reporting 9:10 EST

Needle: 56% Ossoff, 60% Warnock

45% Reporting 9:31 EST

Needle: 57% Ossoff, 63% Warnock

Election Trivia

Kelly Loeffler is only the second woman to serve as a senator from Georgia. The other, Rebecca Latimer Felton, served for one day in 1922.

Washington County Flips

9:42 EST Turnout vs Expectations

The Narrative: Galen Druke 538

If Republicans do lose these races, the narrative turns into a choose your own adventure for Republicans. They can either say, “Hey, we need a Trump type to turn out low-propensity non-college-educated white voters, otherwise we lose.” Or they could say, “Hey, all that nutty authoritarian stuff didn’t work with suburbanites and we need to pivot.” I imagine we will see both of those options on offer from GOP candidates in 2022 and 2024.

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Best News Yet for Dems?

Neither Good Nor Surprising for GOP

Neither Good Nor Surprising

Election Turnout Trivia From Nate Cohn Via 538 Nathaniel Rakich

Nate Cohn of The New York Times/The Upshot estimates that total turnout will eventually hit 4.415 millionat least. It’s hard to overstate what a huge number that is for a runoff election. It would be more than double the previous record for highest turnout in a runoff, 2.1 million in 2008. Heck, it would be more than the 4.1 million people who voted in Georgia in the 2016 general election.

Youngest Senator Since Biden

10:02 EST What's Happening Now: Nate Cohn 

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There's a long way to go and it's close, but thus far the Democrats have done better than they need, even if narrowly, across all vote methods and in all regions. The Republicans will need to do better in what's remaining than we would expect based on how well they've done so far, particularly in the Atlanta area, where virtually no election day votes have been counted.

Uncertainty Overstated

10:33 EST Republicans Take the Lead But It's a Mirage

Republicans have taken a narrow lead in the tabulated vote, but the Democrats are clear favorites in both races. The overwhelming majority of remaining votes are in the Atlanta metro area, and while the race remains competitive, there's no indication that the Republicans are poised to outperform expectations. The big Democratic vote left: the DeKalb County early vote. We expect these 170,000 votes to break for Ossoff by an 85-15 margin.

The above from Nate Cohn: What's Happening Now

See my "Important Points" at the start of this post.

Remaining Votes

Seen Enough 

Remaining Votes Update

Mish Comment

Votes Counted and Remaining - Approx 11 PM EST

Comments of the Day

A Note on Vote Counting

Pretty Likely or Very Likely?

Vote Counts Halted for the Night

GA Sec of State

What Votes Remain?