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The Haters Will Decide

There's plenty to dislike about both President Trump and presumed Democrat nominee Joe Biden. 

But once again it's the haters who will decide the election. And Polls Show Trump is Getting Trounced by the Haters.

Of the nearly 20 percent of voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump in 2016, Trump outperformed Clinton by about 17 percentage points, according to exit polls.

Four years later, that same group — including a mix of Bernie Sanders supporters, other Democrats, disaffected Republicans and independents — strongly prefers Biden, the polling shows. The former vice president leads Trump by more than 40 percentage points among that group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of registered voters, according to a Monmouth University poll last week.

“It’s a huge difference,” said Patrick Murray, who oversees the Monmouth poll. “That’s a group that if you don’t like either one of them, you will vote against the status quo. And in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton represented more of the status quo than Trump did. In this current election, the status quo is Donald Trump.”

It’s not 2016 anymore, OK?” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania. “There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.

Devil You Don't Know

“People like that choose the devil they don’t know,” Nicholas said, rejecting Clinton as a de facto incumbent and instead taking their chances with Trump. “What’s different in 2020? He’s the incumbent. So, he’s the devil you know … That’s why those numbers have flipped so precipitously from ’16 to '20, and there’s nothing inherent you can do about that, because Trump is the incumbent.”

Make America Great Again

Trump had an amazingly good campaign slogan in 2016 but we were guessing at what her would really do.

In contrast, does anyone even remember her slogan?

I don't but I could easily look it up. 

Hillary was uniquely despicable. We knew who Hillary was and her disasters as Secretary of State. 

In term of foreign policy, she even received praise from John McCain. How did that sound to the Democrat on the fence?

Let's flash forward to today.

Failed Promises

  1. Trump did not restore US manufacturing
  2. Trump belittled foreign leaders, even allies. 
  3. Trump did not shrink the deficit even before Covid-19 and now it's a disaster. 
  4. Trump's tariffs were a disaster from start to finish. 
  5. Trump handled Covid-19 poorly. 
  6. Trump cut taxes, but the benefits mostly went to the wealthy, not the middle class
  7. Trump did not drain the swamp. 

 If we can have just have a slight bit of honesty, no one can deny those things.

What America Has to Offer

Republican Hypocrites Ignore Trump's Lies, Praise Irresponsible Budget

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"In 2016, Trump promised to totally wipe out $19 trillion in national debt over eight years in office. Republicans cheered. Today, hypocrite republicans cheer a trillion dollar deficit and a national debt projected to rise by about $9 trillion."

And long before the coronavirus hit, I wrote  Republican Hypocrites Ignore Trump's Lies, Praise Irresponsible Budget, so one cannot blame Covid for the miserable deficit.

Trump Will Easily Be Defeated in 2020, Perhaps a Landslide

On December 30, 2019 I proclaimed Trump Will Easily Be Defeated in 2020, Perhaps a Landslide

This Is Not 2016

It's important to note that this is not 2016. Trump was never well liked, but Hillary was despised.

Yet, despite the fact that Hillary was despised, Trump barely won. People pat themselves on the back for predicting a Trump win. In reality, they were lucky.

No one could have foreseen that Comey would come out of the blue at the last moment with a blast at Hillary. I believe that tipped the election.

A friend believes I am way too confident of this. But I never once expressed a confidence factor.

I will now. My confidence is in the low to mid 60% range. If you want a precise number, call it 64%. 

But most think Trump will win, so the percentage spread vs other bettors is huge.

Trump's Plus Column

  1. Trump did make two good Supreme Court picks but one was extremely controversial.
  2. He is not Joe Biden

Biden's Minus Column

  1. Sex allegations, but Trump has those too.
  2. Flip flopping, but Trump changes his mind day to day
  3. Age, but that goes against Trump and Bernie Sanders as well
  4. Life long bureaucrat
  5. Accused of dementia and it may be accurate
  6. Let's be honest, what the hell did he do? Obamacare? Please! Is that supposed to be a plus?

Biden's Plus Column

  1. He is not Donald Trump
  2. He is widely liked by blacks.
  3. He might die in office or be removed because of dementia

Biden's Alleged Dementia is a Plus

Voters will look ahead to what's next. 

And if Biden has dementia or other health concerns, Democrats can look forward to him serving less than a full term. 

For those who hate both candidates, Biden has the lesser chance of lasting 4 years.

Is that a bad thing?

Mish