Trump is ahead of Biden when it comes to positive enthusiasm.  Unfortunately for Trump, he is way behind in negative enthusiasm. 

That spread is what's killing Trump at the polls.

Not a 2016 Replay

For many month, I have commented this is not a replay of 2016. Trump was never well liked, but many people in both parties despised Hillary. 

Trump won in 2016 for five reasons.

  1. People hated Hillary more than Trump
  2. Trump was an unknown risk that swing voters were willing to take a chance on
  3. Hillary ran a very poor campaign
  4. A fantastic campaign slogan: Make America Great Again
  5. At the last minute, Comey rescued trump with an attack on Hillary and her email server.

Points 1-4 got Trump into the ballpark. It still took Point 5 to cross the finish line. 

Despite all of those things Trump barely won as measured by tiny margins of victory in several critical swing states.

Why Trump — Not Biden — Has An Enthusiasm Problem

Five-Thirty-Eight finally picked up on point number 1 in its report Why Trump — Not Biden — Might Have An Enthusiasm Problem

Polls consistently show that Trump’s supporters are more excited to vote for him than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s supporters are to vote for him. For example, half of Trump supporters in a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll said they were “very excited” about their candidate, compared to just 27 percent of Biden backers. Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale even described their enthusiasm advantage over Biden as “the most important factor in the campaign.” But the significance of this “enthusiasm gap” is exaggerated.

First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower as of the last survey conducted at the end of June.

Net Enthusiasm 

Biden Hold a Net Enthusiam Advantage

What’s especially notable here is that Biden’s net enthusiasm rating is near zero, which is similar to most major-party presidential candidates’ ratings from 1980 to 2012. Trump’s current score of around -20, on the other hand, has only one historical comparison other than his own campaign four years ago: Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The Man People Hate to Hate

Biden is a man people hate to hate. Trump and Hillary are candidates people love to hate.

Trump cannot exploit Biden on race, sex, religion, or age. All Trump has right now is "Sleepy Joe". 

In 2016, Trump had "Crooked Hillary".

Trump Approval Rating 

Trump Approval Rating 2020-07-17

Recent Polls

Recent Polls 2020-07-17

Key Polling Ideas

  1. Pollsters want to get it right except for internal biased polls. 
  2. The 2016 polls were not that far wrong. They were within margins of errors.
  3. Were it not for a last minute Comey rescue, Trump would have lost. And that Comey surge was not reflected in state polls where it mattered. 

Factors

  1. There are less than 4 months to the election.
  2. It is no longer early (but it also is not irrecoverably late).
  3. Trump's path of victory is extremely narrow.
  4. Biden's path of victory is wide.
  5. The economy is in recession.
  6. Swing voters indicate they are sick of Trump.
  7. People strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of Covid.
  8. People strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of George Floyd.
  9. Trump just cannot stay away from inane Tweets of all sorts.
  10. Biden is doing well hiding in the basement. That won't last forever.

The only point above that possibly favors Trump is point number 10. 

Real Clear Politics Election Map

Real Clear Politics Election Map July 17

The above map from Real Clear Politics is a joke. Those alleged tossups are not close to tossups.

270-to-Win

270-to-Win july 17

The above map is from 270-to-Win

This is the first time all year where a generic map matches my own view. 

Key Points

  1. Florida and Pennsylvania are in Biden's camp, not tossups.
  2. Ohio is in the tossup category.
  3. Trump is losing ground in Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. 

Trump has fewer and fewer states in which he will not have to campaign. He cannot even ignore Texas, Georgia, or Iowa.

It is possible for Trump to win but it ridiculous to ascertain Trump will win, is leading, or even tied at this point. 

Predictit has Biden at 61 cents. I think Biden has about a 75% chance at this point. 

Trump is Trailing Badly in All Recent Florida Polls: Why?

The above 270-to-Win map matches the one I created on June 27. 

Trump was getting killed on several issues: Covid, defections, and immigration. Defections have since increased. 

For further discussion, please see Trump is Trailing Badly in All Recent Florida Polls: Why?

Mish