Trump Tweets About Phony Fox News
.@FoxNews is out with another of their phony polls, done by the same group of haters that got it even more wrong in 2016. Watch what happens in November. Fox is terrible!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 19, 2020
Here are the results of the Fox News Poll.
Methodology
Interviews were conducted June 13-16, 2020 among a random national sample of 1,343 registered voters (RV). Landline (280) and cellphone (1,063) telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.
Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 2.5 percentage points.
The poll includes additional interviews (an oversample) of randomly selected black voters. These interviews were done to allow additional analysis of the subgroup and are weighted so they are not overrepresented in the overall national sample. The total 252 black sample is made up of 119 interviews as part of the base national sample and 133 oversample interviews.
Fox News does not conduct its own polls. Since 2011, The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) (formerly known as Anderson Robbins Research) and Shaw & Company Research (R).
Phony?
There is nothing remotely phony about the poll.
Fox News is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight.
Over Sampling?
ZeroHedge commented “The survey of 1,343 registered voters included an oversample of 252 black voters. Democrats were oversampled 46% vs. 40% Republicans. Of those, 40% said they were ‘solid’ Democrats vs. just 33% of Republicans who said the same.”
So what? It is nearly impossible to get a demographic perfect mix. That is why all the pollsters normalize the polls.
Don’t Outguess or “Unskew” the Polls
FiveThirtyEight says Don’t Outguess or “Unskew” the Polls.
People who pick apart a poll by claiming it has, say, too many Democrats or too few black voters in its sample are generally wasting their time (and they usually have an agenda). Polls are almost always weighted to match their target population’s demographics, such as race and age. This doesn’t mean all pollsters assign weights in the same way, though, and there are practices like weighting by education on which the industry is split. Not weighting by education likely contributed to some of the most consequential polling errors of 2016, and many pollsters have now begun to factor education into their weighting, but others are still holding out. In an era when graduating from college has a significant bearing on white people’s political preferences, we recommend putting more stock in polls that weight by education than those that don’t. (On the other hand, weighting by partisanship, an idea that’s received some attention lately, is dicey and not something most pollsters do. That’s because party identification, unlike many demographic traits, is fluid, so setting it as a constant risks predetermining the poll’s outcome.)
Snapshots Not Predictions
Polls are snapshots, not predictions. Based on those snapshots, trump is clearly behind.
Didn’t this happen in 2016?
Not really. The polls were all within the margin of error. A last second Charge by Comey Likely Tipped the Election.
Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28. The letter, which said the FBI had “learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation” into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state, upended the news cycle and soon halved Clinton’s lead in the polls, imperiling her position in the Electoral College.
Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.
Knowing the Unknowable
Many people congratulated themselves. I heard many comments like these.
- I knew Trump would win.
- I knew the polls were wrong.
Anyone making such claims is a fool or a charlatan. It is not possible to “know” such things.
The polls were not even “wrong” because they were within the margin of error.
Rather, people’s interpretations of the polls were wrong.
Luck Not Knowledge
Those professing to “know” Trump would win got very, very lucky by Comey’s letter.
Pollsters Want to be Right
Except for party sponsored polls, the pollsters want to get things right. That is how pollsters get business.
There is no reason pollsters for Fox News would ever deliver a “phony poll”.
Trump is the Phony
Trump is the phony, Not Fox News.
Mish
Hillery lost because she embraced Obama’s failed policies,once she was seen in public with BO her fate was sealed! JB isn’t making that same mistake,this is Bidens to lose and all he has to do to hand Trump victory is to have his picture taken with Obama…just one photo op and he’ll lose every state!
This whole feud is phony. It distracts people from policy. It’s noise.
Tune out of the bullshit, people. Don’t vote for Demopublicans. Certainly don’t contribute money to them either.
Don’t watch Fox or CNN. Avoid giving eyeballs and ad revenue to NYT, Wapo, etc. Get your news from independent bloggers. Contribute money to keep them afloat.
I wouldn’t celebrate the fact that Trump trails Biden if I was an American. Trump is obnoxious, abrasive, narcissistic and much more. But do not confuse optics with substance. In foreign policy, as well as commerce, he turned out to be more of the realist than the rhetoric would suggest (and most have figured it out already).
And that is even more important in the long term.
If you want to look for an bad example of optics over substance, look no further than Canada.
Trumps foreign policy is non existent. He makes it up as he goes along ignoring all advice from his intelligence services.
I could be wrong but in my opinion in the 2016 election, people had their minds made up as soon as they knew the candidates. I doubt if Comey’s letter had any impact whatsoever on the outcome of the election.
I believe that 99% of the population currently have their minds made up right now heading into the 2020 election.
“Hillary Clinton would probably be president if she and her cohorts had not broken the law so egregiously that even the openly-partisan Comey had to announce the issue of Tony Wiener’s email-soaked laptop.”
It would be funny if neither candidate offered any 2020 platform and made no promises whatsoever. We could move into total “At least I’m not the other guy” rhetoric with nothing but attack ads and it wouldn’t be much different. We’re at least 90% of the way there now, we may as well make the final step into total lesser evilism.
I bet only a very small percentage of voters, probably in the single digits, actually believe in the candidate they will vote for. They vote red because they despise blue and vice versa, and it’s every bit as unhealthy for the country as it sounds. We’ve moved into a well-earned cynicism and trust is all but broken.
It also doesn’t help matters that the last group of true believers, Trump’s Q crowd, turned out to be complete lunatics.
The lunatics have subverted the asylum.
Tengen , excellent post.
I would add to that, that there is a fast growing silent group of voters are horrified at how a extreme P/C culture has overwhelmed rationale thought and that the far left leaning media has now entered the mainstream and that is frightening folks and is one of the largest dangers (simply bc they have the most influence ) . Without taking this the wrong way , I would suggest folks read Matt Taiabi’s latest piece “How the media is destroying itself “
The general points are made clear and I believe touch on many of the centralist dems creeping concerns where the “dont ask mosr questions/ bc you can be labeled and tarred and feather very quickly by asking Honest questions simply fueled by critical thinking and these questions are met with knee jerk name calling and now as we have seen…professors fired , Lefty journalists devoured by far left , etc etc
The far left would be as responsible as any if trump is re-elected and they are a huge reason why he even has a chance
‘‘Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey …’’
Such statements also belong to the realm of the unknowable. Everyday we are told why the markets went up or down, always some news headline, virtually always an arbitrary anthology of what is supposedly going on in the world and investors’ minds.
We have been told for more than 3 years that the Russians control American elections and politics at almost every level.
These things are pretty unknowable, except if a candidate drops out after some scandal hits the headlines. The popularity contests are full of paradoxical effects and reactions by groups of people trending in the opposite direction that experts and pundits expect.
It is rare with respect to even simple things (‘If only I hadn’t burnt the lasagna at that dinner date’) to know what effect anything has on people’s mind and attitude.
“Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28.”
According to the evidence, Hillary should have been indicted for her reckless disregard for classified material on her home server. Comey broke FBI protocol in order to protect her from prosecution.
Actually, no.
Keep that head in the sand Ron. And keep getting your news from some weird echo chamber.
Polls are phony, Mish.
For one, two Democrat politicians in Michigan said not to believe the polls.
Zero Hedge on the Fox Poll: “The survey of 1,343 registered voters included an oversample of 252 black voters. Democrats were oversampled 46% vs. 40% Republicans. Of those, 40% said they were ‘solid’ Democrats vs. just 33% of Republicans who said the same.”
We saw this sort of gaming of polls last time, too.
The sampling is based on turnout in 2018 which seems reasonable. More people have registered as Democrats since then as well.
“For one, two Democrat politicians in Michigan said not to believe the polls.”
The, lying, cheating, stupid democrats from Michigan?
Actual testimony recently released showed that Adam Schiff was lying all along when he said he had evidence that Trump colluded with Russia.
I recieved a text message to participate in a poll and after I answered 3 questions. Gender,age and zip code I was disqualified.
Now if that isn’t rigged then your clueless.
So, there is now less than 19 weeks to go before the election. If every unemployed person went back to work tomorrow and there were no shortages in markets and nobody in arrears on their home, credit card, and auto loans, and no burned out buildings from rioting and looting, MAYBE just maybe Trump could eek out a win with the electoral college, provided Biden somehow has a major screw up. Or invited Maduro of Caracas to be his running mate.
I am not really totally certain who I will vote for as of today, but I do know it will not be for Trump. If Biden picks an especially bad VP candidate in my opinion I might write in Hillary or myself of something. But I will not vote for Trump.
Maybe he meant “phone poll” 🙂 … fawney dropping .. ha…haha… but either way, only one poll gets counted as real, which is the actual election.
Most people don’t even like Biden, but trumpty’s antics will win Biden their votes.
It’s the Economy, stupid.
James Carville
The local rag today had an on point article on local business. The Town’s head of economic development had a few eye openers.
Had multiple inquiries from local businesses on procedures to wind down and liquidate.
Many businesses only had 30 to 60 days of cash.
People would be VERY surprised at the names of some of the businesses in dire straits.
I expect 50% of companies to go bankrupt this summer. Bankruptcy is a good thing because it allows all debts to be written off. Keeping zombie companies alive is a bad thing. The Fed is making a big mistake bailing out corporate bonds of zombie companies that need to be liquidated.
And no time soon will sports leagues demand tax payers abate their new billion dollar stadium
you are the phony –with TDS
Earth to GOP: This isn’t 2016.
It surprises me that Trump only trails Biden by 12 points given everything that has happened in the past couple of years. Shows the strength of his Republican base that accepts everything Trump says and does without question.
Wondering if people can identify with high degree of confidence a past president who had a more rock-solid base of around 40%. What seemed like an outrageous statement in the last campaign “I could shoot someone in broad daylight in Times Square and not lose any votes” seems unfathomably believable today. Rabid bases like his seem historically more prone to be MUCH smaller, like 1, 4, maybe 10%.
The issue is the people supporting the him not the party. IMO his rock solid base is only about 10% of the country and 25% of adult population. Right now my prediction is an electoral landslide in November not so much for Biden but against the status quo (Trump in the White House and Republicans in charge of the Senate).
This poll is pure nonsense.
You are correct. And, Fat Donnie™ never hires losers and liars.
Your comment is pure nonsense. It adds nothing to the conversation and presents no facts to refute the article.