What's Happening?

A Fox News story and poll provides a set of answers that Trump supporters do not want to hear: Biden Leads in Florida as Trump Lags Among Seniors.

Voters think Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is better suited to handle the issues of the day, expanding his lead over President Donald Trump in the battleground state of Florida.

Key Points

  1. Biden tops Trump by 9 points, 49-40 percent, in a Fox News survey of Florida registered voters. That’s up from a 3-point edge in April (46-43 percent).
  2. Among those “extremely” motivated to vote, Biden’s lead grows to 11 points (53-42 percent).
  3. The former vice president owes his advantage to the backing of Hispanics (+17 points), women (+18 points), and Millennials born between 1981 and 1996 (+30).
  4. Some groups that are key to a Trump reelection split down the middle, including men (46 Biden vs. 44 Trump) and voters ages 65 and over (47-48 percent) -- Trump’s 8-point edge among white voters (42-50 percent) also trails expectations.
  5. Independents go for Biden by 22 points (40-18 percent); however, a large number, 42 percent, are undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.
  6. By wide margins, Florida voters prefer Biden to Trump to manage immigration (50-40 percent), coronavirus (49-36 percent), and race relations (52-34 percent).
  7. By a 4-point spread, they trust Trump (47 percent) over Biden (43 percent) on the economy.
  8. Defections among core supporters are part of the president’s problem: 9 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of those who approve of Trump, and 8 percent of 2016 Trump voters back Biden in the matchup.

I did not come up with those key points, Fox News did, but I did come up with the subtitle and I added emphasis.

The recent surge in Florida Covid-19 cases, Trump's poor handling of Covid, and Florida age demographics can easily account for most of Biden's Florida gains. 

Trump Behind in Texas 

Four Fox News Polls

Fake Polls 

All 4 polls by Fox News are fake. 

I know that because Trump says news broadcasts are the real polls

As we all know, Fox News is a constant purveyor liberal news except of course when the Silent Majority is watching Hannity interview Trump.

Fake Polls in Battleground States

For details on 17 other fake polls, please see Trump is Behind in Every Recent Battleground Poll.

There were 4 polls in Wisconsin, 3 in Michigan, 3 in Pennsylvania, 3 in North Carolina, 2 in Florida, and 2 in Arizona.

Those 17 polls were purposely rigged so the liberal media could brag about them. 

The 4 Fox News polls were purposely rigged so Hannity could complain about them.

There is no other possible explanation. 

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Current Snapshot

Current Snapshot

I created the above map on 270toWin

That link is interactive if you care to play around. 

Betting Odds

Predictit 2020-06-27

The Betting Odds on Predictit give Biden a 62-39 edge.

The above map is how I see things breaking except NC is close to a genuine tossup.

Path to Victory

For Trump to win, he needs Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Any one of those for Biden would be enough. Biden could even lose all four if he won Iowa. 

I put Iowa in Trump's column, but his lead is only by 1. 

Trump's is behind in the most recent Texas and Georgia polls. But I put those states in Trump's column anyway. 

Not Impossible For Trump to Win

It is by no means impossible for Trump to win. I have Trump's odds at about 30%.

The Economist has Biden a 91% favorite.

Too much can happen in 4 months for the odds to be that high, 

Interestingly, the economist has Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona in the uncertain category it defines as 50-65%. 

By that definition, one could reasonably put Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida in the uncertain category as well.  

Mish

Slew of New Polls Have Bad News for Bernie

A few new polls came out today. They did not improve the chances of Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination.