What’s Happening?
A Fox News story and poll provides a set of answers that Trump supporters do not want to hear: Biden Leads in Florida as Trump Lags Among Seniors.
Voters think Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is better suited to handle the issues of the day, expanding his lead over President Donald Trump in the battleground state of Florida.
Key Points
- Biden tops Trump by 9 points, 49-40 percent, in a Fox News survey of Florida registered voters. That’s up from a 3-point edge in April (46-43 percent).
- Among those “extremely” motivated to vote, Biden’s lead grows to 11 points (53-42 percent).
- The former vice president owes his advantage to the backing of Hispanics (+17 points), women (+18 points), and Millennials born between 1981 and 1996 (+30).
- Some groups that are key to a Trump reelection split down the middle, including men (46 Biden vs. 44 Trump) and voters ages 65 and over (47-48 percent) — Trump’s 8-point edge among white voters (42-50 percent) also trails expectations.
- Independents go for Biden by 22 points (40-18 percent); however, a large number, 42 percent, are undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.
- By wide margins, Florida voters prefer Biden to Trump to manage immigration (50-40 percent), coronavirus (49-36 percent), and race relations (52-34 percent).
- By a 4-point spread, they trust Trump (47 percent) over Biden (43 percent) on the economy.
- Defections among core supporters are part of the president’s problem: 9 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of those who approve of Trump, and 8 percent of 2016 Trump voters back Biden in the matchup.
I did not come up with those key points, Fox News did, but I did come up with the subtitle and I added emphasis.
The recent surge in Florida Covid-19 cases, Trump’s poor handling of Covid, and Florida age demographics can easily account for most of Biden’s Florida gains.
Trump Behind in Texas
Fake Polls
Do not believe the Fake News Media. Oklahoma speech had the highest Saturday television ratings in @FoxNews history. @seanhannity dominated T.V. with my interview on Thursday night, more than @CNN & MSDNC COMBINED. These are the real polls, the Silent Majority, not FAKE POLLS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 27, 2020
All 4 polls by Fox News are fake.
I know that because Trump says news broadcasts are the real polls.
As we all know, Fox News is a constant purveyor liberal news except of course when the Silent Majority is watching Hannity interview Trump.
Fake Polls in Battleground States
For details on 17 other fake polls, please see Trump is Behind in Every Recent Battleground Poll.
There were 4 polls in Wisconsin, 3 in Michigan, 3 in Pennsylvania, 3 in North Carolina, 2 in Florida, and 2 in Arizona.
Those 17 polls were purposely rigged so the liberal media could brag about them.
The 4 Fox News polls were purposely rigged so Hannity could complain about them.
There is no other possible explanation.
Current Snapshot
I created the above map on 270toWin.
That link is interactive if you care to play around.
Betting Odds
The Betting Odds on Predictit give Biden a 62-39 edge.
The above map is how I see things breaking except NC is close to a genuine tossup.
Path to Victory
For Trump to win, he needs Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Any one of those for Biden would be enough. Biden could even lose all four if he won Iowa.
I put Iowa in Trump’s column, but his lead is only by 1.
Trump’s is behind in the most recent Texas and Georgia polls. But I put those states in Trump’s column anyway.
Not Impossible For Trump to Win
It is by no means impossible for Trump to win. I have Trump’s odds at about 30%.
The Economist has Biden a 91% favorite.
Too much can happen in 4 months for the odds to be that high,
Interestingly, the economist has Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona in the uncertain category it defines as 50-65%.
By that definition, one could reasonably put Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida in the uncertain category as well.
Mish
Saw something encouraging yesterday. And old veteran (could tell by his plates) with a newish pickup truck yesterday I saw in Florida had magnetic signs made up for his rig and stuck to the doors that read TRUMP LIED PEOPLE DIED. In bold red caps. Pretty sure it was the whole Putin/bounty thing that set him off, veterans in general are really pissed about that. By the way veterans tend to vote almost 80% for the GOP, but I think they lost quite a few with Trump this time around. It would not surprise me if it were 30/70 rather than 80/20 this time.
I will remind you that HRC led in the FL polls by double digits in late 2016 but lost Florida in the GE. So either it was rigged or she fell that much in a matter of weeks. In fact they pulled resources out of FL to spend in other swing states because she was so far ahead. I will say this about FL though, it is really pretty evenly divided between left and right, and 16% of the population is black. They will back democrats on polling, but then just not actually vote unless they have a black person to vote for. They turned out for Obama, they have not turned out for white democrats. Trump won Florida by 113,000 and at least three times that many blacks eligible to vote did not bother. Although that could have been partly a function of her towering lead in the polls, they could well have told themselves they did not need to because she was going to win anyway.
The black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012.
But do not think I blame blacks for the failure to support democrats where it counts, at polling stations. It is the young who espouse the farthest left sentiment, and yet they turn out in numbers like 46.4% in 2012 and just barely eeked out 50% in 2016. They are getting EXACTLY what they deserve. They want student loan reform? They could have put Hillary over the top by a record landslide had they just bothered to vote so I have had it up to here with their whining about social injustices. If you do not vote you do not get to cry and loot and riot.
Let U.S. apologize by electing democrats
As long as Basement Joe can remain barricaded in his home, his probability of keeping his poll lead remains strong with the following exceptions: the hard leftist in the Demo party want a radical black woman as his vice president. That would lead to many potent Republican attack ads. Basement Joe appears to support open borders, open up the jails, and opening up the treasury to black reparation claims. Difficult to see the popularity of those issues. Now can the Trump Team make Joe come out of the basement and play, his verbal thinking skills are atrocious compared to even recently under the Obama Adm. Can Dill, Scout, and Jem make Boo Radley come out and play?
Trump fumbled with his idiotic responses to Covid-19 & the BLM protests. It really is difficult to see him winning now.
Trump knows that Putin paid a bounty to slaughter US soldiers and lied about it – and is trying to kill pre-existing conditions protections and the ACA in the middle of a pandemic. Morning Joe show thinks he wants to lose so he can start his new business. Trump only ever cared about monetizing his Presidency. That’s why he insists the election is rigged. He will say his loss was really a win so he can save face and then he’ll launch his new media company. His hotels are dead. He has no business to go back to so he needs to start his new one now.
the Democrat’s Defund-the-police ,p
oling in Michigan regarding Biden’s mental health, just to name two reason’s Biden is a doubtful next President…Hillary polled higher than Trump, gotta wonder who those poling operatives are using
Yet another russian heard from.
Trumps strength is that he is constantly underestimated by the people who do not understand how he succeeded to begin with.
Either Trump is a lot dumber than he would like people to think (quite probably) or he is, to put it politely, losing it (quite possibly) or maybe even both. Either way the only thing likely to save the day for Trump come November is Biden completely blowing it which is also not out of the realm of possibility. As I said before we have two lousy candidates to choose from. We have seen what Trump has to offer and it is not pretty. The prospect of a democratic president for the next 4 years is not particularly appealing but better than the devil we know. We can only hope the Republican part comes to its senses and strong arms Trump into stepping down from the November election. If not the Republicans are in serious danger of also losing the Senate. Looks like it will be an interesting next few months to say the least.
He owns the GOP. There is no strong arming him.
Don’t kid yourself. They will throw him under the bus if their lives depend on it.
Moscow Mitch put on a mask and started to sound reasonable… the moment he fell one point behind in the polls against his opponent.
But his problem and it is self inflicted, his KY GOP base has it’s heads so far up Trump’s ass that if Trump goes down at this point he goes with him. If MM says to KY republicans it is their duty to dump Trump they may, but they will dump him as well because in Trump/GOP heartland red states there is now a scism that will see the GOP lose. You have your true conservatives that gave Trump a shot but now have decided that he is garbage and they will not vote for him, and you have the TDS dumpsterfire crowd that are RINO and will vote Trump even if he withdraws.
o Boy let’s elect another career politician, or better yet some citizen from Europe, or a Chinese nationalist, or an ex-FBI democrat…or Biden
We all know the establishment hates Trump. Who runs the polls, the establishment. The establishment gets rich from globalization, Trump has ruined globalization. The establishment wants to form a globalist government run by elites and banks, and to end the self determination of the people. The establishment thinks the working people are livestock, and that their purpose is to serve the rich. The establishment wants to bring back feudalism and relegate the working people to serfdom. The establishment runs the media and people from whom you get your information.
You would have thought the liberals would have learned a lesson about polls from the last election, but alas they did not. You know what they say about insanity, it is continuing to do the same things over and over expecting a different outcome…..
There hasn’t been a convention or any debates yet.
Just wait until Biden has to perform in either, with the entire country watching.
Not going to be pretty and just might change a few peoples’ minds.
Exactly.
Not worried about Biden performing WORSE than Trump will, your guy will likely be so overconfident by that time fed a steady stream of fake polling data he will snort lines off his podium before he can answer questions.
I live in Florida. I agree with the polls. Anecdotal: my elderly parents have been big Trump supporters. However, both have medical issues that would make them vulnerable to the virus. They were on the “it’s good that we’re opening up. People can exercise their liberty, and conservatives will do the right thing” bandwagon. When it became abundantly evident that these so-called conservatives could give a damn about my parents or anyone else, they entered a period of cognitive dissonance. Now that most of the businesses are voluntarily shutting down again as they try to protect their employees and customers, they’re seeing the economy collapse regardless of what the President and governor say. My mother actually said that “Trump supporters are almost actively sabotaging the President”. I responded that the President lead them to where they are.
Anyway, both are Republicans, but both have lost faith in the President and the GOP. No way they’ll vote for Biden, but they’re currently planning on sitting the elections out.
Whoever wins will wish they hadn’t.
Like I have said before, like it or not Trump has to win because he is riding a huge and hungry tiger, the moment he ceases to be a “sitting president” he will begin to fend off one indictment and lawsuit after another that will take up the rest of his life. Which could well end in prison. His only real option to avoid that is resign and have Pence pull a Ford and pardon him, but even that I doubt would stick.
“At this late stage, it’s difficult to imagine too many people actually believing in either of these lousy candidates.”
Yes!
That is precisely the dilemma
Mish, as you know I am a democrat, but when I do not have a democrat I believe in to get behind I am open to voting for a republican if that republican is not actually worse than the democrat I am looking to an alternative to. For example I would not have voted for Carter for a second term under any circumstances even though the alternative was Raygun who had been my governor and whom I loathed. But I consider it my civic duty to vote, and the other time I simply had to vote GOP rather than for the democrat was when I voted for McCain.
I do believe a couple things are true here that are worth mentioning. Those 65,853,514 people who voted for Clinton – not one of them as far as I can tell believe Trump’s win was legitimate, he has won nobody over with his disaster of a presidency. Trump has to get at least some of those who voted for Clinton unless he wants another popular vote loss only this time not in that magical set of precincts that gave him the EC win.
Elections are very often choices between those you dislike least, a feeling of not voting FOR your candidate, but against the one you believe is least worthy to hold the office.
The two things that I think are at play that could see Trump win even if that is something of a surprise, would be an absolutely massive stimulus from the republicans that is akin to the most generous put forth to date, $2k per month per adult till unemployment is back below 7%, or till April 1 which ever comes first. If the GOP and Trump pushed for something like that they could buy the election. By not even permitting the second $1,200 stimulus while democrats point at them and say we voted FOR more stimulus and you will have to ask senate republicans why they want you to just die and go bankrupt, lose your houses and have your kids taken by the state, well that is pretty much all the left has to do at this point to win.
The other is to play up Biden’s unlikelihood of surviving his first term thus making the election all about his VP candidate. As a socially liberal centrist democrat that is my own greatest fear to the point that for the first time in my life my sense of civic duty might get overridden by a depressed sort of inability to vote for either. If a progressive or worse, a black radical woman as president who would kill America with slave reparations is something I simply cannot vote for even with Trump on the other side of the ballot. Suppression of democratic voters is probably Trump’s only hope at this point. And announcing or having Bill Barr announce investigations into anyone named Biden is just not going to get ‘er done this time. It worked with Comey in 2016 just well enough that Trump won in a shock victory to even him and his campaign, but the odds of that happening were staggeringly long, and not going to be repeated by faux investigations again.
They could do that and work up belief that the VP on the dem ticket is a dangerous radical and not presidential caliber to boot. The other thing Trump could do and so I expect it to be done is whip up racial instability to the point where people ask for martial law in democrat strongholds, the big cities. That would have the added benefit of short circuiting normal operations of the dem centers of power. Enhancing the power of the presidency not by him seizing it illegitimately, but by acclimation from the cities themselves.
Whatever he plans to do he has little time left to act, less than 18 weeks remain till voting begins. This is part of why I hate Trump so much, there is absolutely nothing he would not do to win for personal reasons no matter what it does to the United States of America, even her destruction.
On a lighter note, but not sure if he is still running…
DICK HEAD for president!
Well, that’s been a constant for the past 150 years…
MISH will be the Nate Silver of this election cycle!
Another MISH bash TRUMP post.
Has anyone looked at MISH’S track record on his all in Bloomberg for president trade?
Total bust!
LMFAO
Trump still has a shot because he is right on the immigration and labor visa issues. Most working Americans can relate to these issues. The Democrats will get high turnout and even may win but they can only coopt on the issues where is Trump if they win. I really think Biden needs to go out of the box with his VP pick to keep his momentum. The former CEO of Xerox would be my pick. But the party wont let him go outside the box so Trump will get a bounce this summer in his numbers when people see another politician as Bidens pick ( and likely next President). Trump’s tax returns and information on pending cases will be released come September or October and this time Trump wont have interference from the FBI helping him like he did in 2016.
Trump does not need the black vote. Hispanics & asians is where it’s at along with white vote. If Biden picks a black VP, then you will see a migration to Trump by whites, asians and hispanics. If Biden wins, you can bet the economy will be destroyed along with fabric of America. Lastly, I stand by saying that after the first debate, you will see a movement to Trump. Every time I see Biden talk, he’s in another world. Biden instills no confidence. I’m not saying I’m crazy about Trump anymore, but I’ll take law and order over chaos. These riots pushed people back to Trump.
This idea that Americans hate immigrants isn’t going to carry the day, sorry Republicans.
No sane immigrant wants to come to the USA right now anyway — even if they could. America is a third-world COVID hell-hole, on par with Brazil or India, rather than modern first-world countries like Canada, South Korea or France (who successfully beat the virus).
It’s pathetic and embarrassing to watch and realize that the idiots ranting against mask-wearing and social distancing are my fellow countrymen.
As COVID-19 ravages Red State America, numerous people will realize the Republican Party lied to them and sacrificed them to their corporate masters for a few quarters of extra profits. The resulting outrage will further depress Trump’s numbers.
And then, of course, there will be the legions of Red State voters who won’t be able to vote because they’ll be intubated while in an induced coma… or worse.
I agree with you but it’s only June. I’m no Republican but I do think some of what Trump has done has been to the benefit of all Americans ans legal immigrants who aren’t currently on a labor visa.
Hate to say it but this country will need immigrants if we expect to achieve decent GDP numbers going forward.
I know of many citizens who left the professions that labor visas brought to the US. They also told their kids not to go into these professions over the last 30 years. An entire generation of American ingenuity has beenn stunted because of this. People never look at the unintended consequences of policies. We can make blanket statements about the positive effects of immigrants but what about the unintended consequences of the policies and how it has affected citizens and the next generation.
As per the GW Bush institute……
Immigration fuels the economy. When immigrants enter the labor force, they increase the productive capacity of the economy and raise GDP. Their incomes rise, but so do those of natives. It’s a phenomenon dubbed the “immigration surplus,” and while a small share of additional GDP accrues to natives — typically 0.2 to 0.4 percent — it still amounts to $36 to $72 billion per year.
If they’re such a benefit, why not let in all 4 billion of them…
Frankly, nobody is going to vote for Biden. This is Trump running against himself. It will be a referendum on whether there are more people who hate him than people who can get over their dislike of him.
Yes, a vote for Biden is really a vote against Trump and a vote for Trump is a vote against Biden and the blue team.
At this late stage, it’s difficult to imagine too many people actually believing in either of these lousy candidates.
That is the way it usually is, it is why Ford did not win and Carter also. And BushCo I, and the king of one term presidency Herbert Hoover. Proof that fucking up the economy is a one way ticket to electoral oblivion.
But but the carvans of millions of unwashed immigrats all carrying socialist slogans and a couple keys of coke are coming to invade any day now right?
Just imagine how much better off Americans would be, if they hadn’t let Einstein in.
And Brin.
And, heck, those religious, homophobic, antifeminist wackos on the Mayflower.
Man, just imagine how many “jobs” there would be here, if only “we” had Dear Leader who built a wall, preventing all those buggers from coming here and taking them from “us.”
That was a different world. Why not invest more money into a country’s citizens? Surely you cant tell me that wouldn’t have helped. People truly never understood why Trump even won. He was a hail mary for the millions of forgotten voters who had no hope.
Thiiiiingz aaaaare aaaaaalways diiiiiiifferent in Progressivestan.
Yet the solutions to all problems are, strangely enough, always the same: More power to, and ever more meddling by, Dear Leader and his well indoctrinated army of clueless and uncritical sycophants.
The people in America who have no hope, have no hope because The Fed, government and run amuck sorry excuse for a “legal”system, have stolen everything they have, and everything they ever will have.
Immigrants have exactly nothing whatsoever to do with it. While Trump’s “real estate” fortune, as well as the fortunes of all those Manhattanites receiving enough Fed loot to contribute to the pumped up “value” it, have exactly everything to do with it.
When crass theft occurs, those who steal, or receive loot others have stolen, get richer. While those who get robbed get poorer. Keep that up, and the latter end up having no hope. While the former “make money off their home”, “their portfolios”, ambulance chaser shakedowns, mandated “insurance” which robbery victims are forced to pay etc.
That’s all there is. Things aren’t any more complicated than that: Those robbed get poorer and more hopeless, so that those benefiting from the looting can get richer. Pretty basic arithmetic right there.
Just because someone else sucks at making money dont blame the system. Any system of money has its flaws. This isnt the stone ages. America doesn’t need immigrants the way they use to. Enough citizens are suffering.
All Trump has to do is hand out the checks,$1200 a month to every American for 6 months and it’s game over,without it he realistically has zero chance (less than zero)of re-upping for 4 more,Biden will run the table and DT will be back in the private sector,maybe get his own show on Fox or The Game Show Network!
I agree with this, except I would say ADULT Americans, I think single people resent the inclusion of kids in stimulus because it is too much like paying people for nothing other than functioning sex organs.
They could buy the election for certain. As it is like I say above the democrats in the house voted for a stimulus bill that as Jay Powell urged is thinking BIG! But Moscow Mitch and his GOP Borg in the senate are on record as saying there will be NO MORE STIMULUS as long as that $600 per week UI benefit is extended. And the part in caps is the part voters will remember. Those most in need, the unemployed, may also remember the rest. And they will not forget in less than 18 weeks. All the dems have to do is point at the GOP and say hey, we voted to get America through this unprecedented crisis while the republicans blocked any help for you. That is how it stands right now and the GOP is running out of time to act because if it is seen that they are trying to buy the election at the last minute they will still lose.
“DT will be back in the private sector, maybe get his own show on Fox or The Game Show Network!”
Nope.
Donnie Fatso will be in the public sector—wearing orange.
Coronavirus uses same strategy as HIV to dodge immune response,. Both viruses remove marker molecules on surface of an infected cell that are used to identify invaders
This commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2 may be around for some time
And how are we doing on that HIV vaccine???
The moneys not in a cure theses days. It in “treating” .
Yes, just like PREP for treating HIV, why spend money to create a vaccine for an illness that can be stopped with hundreds of billions worth of drugs every year? You almost never hear of people dying from AIDS anymore and people seem to have pretty much forgotten about it.
Have you read any of the articles speculating about the D614G mutation? A vaccine is by no means a slam dunk any time soon.
Yikes. This would explain why the death rate in Eurpoe and New York is so much higher.
This is not exactly new news. It was about 6 weeks ago that I read about the ORF8 protein (I think) that suppresses cell signaling.
They could have had a vaccine for HIV but they found a treatment that was far more profitable instead. I mean they have a vaccine for HIV that works in cats and monkeys. But once anti viral treatments were shown to be effective for HIV they basically stopped spending money on a vaccine for HIV. And since they are making hundreds of billions per year from PREP why would they kill the goose laying that golden egg year in and year out?
Then again, the way HIV disables the immune system from responding to it is also the same way that bubonic plague did it centuries ago in medieval Europe, and some people survived that and passed that on, that is why some people known to have multiple exposures to HIV were apparently immune.