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Suddenly Trump no longer looks invincible. Of, course, his invisibility was nothing but an illusion in the minds of rabid supporters all along.

The lead image is from 538 Presidential Polls. Here's one more clip.


General Election Polls 2020-04-30 A

"C/D" is the 538 rating of the pollster. It's not very high, and it is just one poll. 

Public Policy Polling, rated "B", has Biden ahead by one point in Texas. 

Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November

On April 28, I noted the Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November.

Trump's Extremely Unfavorable Map - 2020-04-28

Pennsylvania is Key

The biggest swing state headed for Biden is Pennsylvania with 20 Electoral College Votes.

Note that a Fox News poll conducted April 18-21 gives Biden an 8-point lead.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia and all the states I marked as tossups then still win (270 on the nose).

My map is actually generous to Trump. Mentally I have Florida as slightly leans Biden and Nevada as leans Biden. 

Ohio and What We Don't Know

I rate Ohio as a tossup due to lack of polls. Ohio is crucial to Trump so mentally move that into his column if you prefer. 

Without any polls I suspect Iowa may be in play. And if it turns into a rout, not exactly unlikely, even Texas could be in play for Biden.

Guess What?

Texas is in play. 

Biden could indeed win Texas. 

Battleground States

Ohio was not supposed to be a battleground state. But it is. And Texas may become one as well.

That was unexpected in nearly every corner but this one. 

Trump Presented with Grim Internal Poll

Please consider Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden

President Trump’s advisers presented him with the results of internal polling last week that showed him falling behind former vice president Joe Biden in key swing states in the presidential race, part of an effort by aides to curtail Trump’s freewheeling daily briefings on the coronavirus pandemic, according to three people with knowledge of the conversations.

One call on Wednesday — with Parscale patched in from his home in Florida and McDaniel from hers in Michigan — was designed to present grim polling data to the president to encourage him to reduce the frequency of coronavirus briefings or to stop taking questions, after seeing his numbers slip for several weeks, officials said.

Trump resisted the pleas, saying people “love” the briefings and think he is “fighting for them,” a person with knowledge of the Wednesday conversation said. 

People Love the Briefings?! Really?


No, they don't, except for reporter who like to bait Trump and succeed. 

Trump's Lysol Moment

Trump's support base does like his message. They even believe Trump regarding his Lysol Moment: His Most Ridiculous Comment Ever.

In case you missed it, Trump promoted the idea of internal disinfectants. Then two people from Georgia got sick drinking Lysol and hot lines in several states received calls on how to drink it safely. 

Take No Blame or Advice 

Trump will take no blame for any of this. Nor will he take advice from his advisors who advised him to just shut up and let the experts talk. 

But hey, Trump does not believe them, nor does his rabid base. Why? 

hey don't say what Trump wants to hear: Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah, Trump is the greatest.

So don't expect any changes in Trump's behavior.

Words of Caution

These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump's handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.

It's not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is a very uphill battle from here.

This is Not 2016

Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.

Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump's divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.

Trump's Need for Adulation Outweighs his Covid-19 Concerns

Trump is going through withdrawal.

He desperately needs screaming fan cheering him on at big rallies even as the independents and swing voters drop him in droves.

Trump announced he will start a campaign tour, Covid-19 be damned. He wants every seat full. 

For details, please see Trump's Need for Adulation Outweighs his Covid-19 Concerns.