Gallup reports Trump’s Job Rating Slides; U.S. Satisfaction Tumbles.
Key Points
- Trump’s job approval rating drops six percentage points, to 43%
- Congress’ approval rating reaches 30% for the first time in over a decade
- U.S. satisfaction with the direction of the country tumbles 12 points
Since the mid-March poll, Trump’s job approval rating has fallen six points among Democrats (to 7%) and four points among independents (to 39%). Higher approval ratings among those groups helped fuel the short-lived rally in approval for Trump. Republicans’ evaluations of Trump have been highly stable throughout 2020, and currently sit at 93% approval.
These data are from an April 1-14 Gallup poll.
Rally Around the President
Trump’s polling rise is very consistent with a global pattern of rallying around the leader in timers of crisis except that Trump’s bounce in March was essentially anemic.
Nate Silver discussed this on April 1 in What Explains The Bump In Trump’s Approval Ratings?
According to Morning Consult, Trump’s net approval rating rose 5 percentage points from March 11 (the day the World Health Organization officially declared the coronavirus crisis a pandemic) to March 24,1 ranking sixth among the nine major world leaders Morning Consult polled. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau all experienced increases of more than 20 points in their net approval ratings.
Other American politicians are seeing huge increases in their popularity as well. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has been addressing one of the nation’s worst COVID-19 outbreaks with regular, nationally televised briefings of his own, has experienced a huge surge in support, according to Siena College polling. In February, only 44 percent of registered New York voters viewed Cuomo favorably, while 50 percent viewed him unfavorably. But last week, 71 percent (!) said they had a favorable opinion of Cuomo, and just 23 percent said their opinion was unfavorable.
Base Going Nowhere
As I have pointed out many times, the base is going nowhere. Trump has a 93% approval rating among Republicans. This group will never vote for Biden.
Similarly, hard-core Democrats will never vote for Trump.
The group to watch is the independents who only give Trump a 39% approval rating.
Why the Bounce?
I expected the bounce and for the bounce to fade as well.
Consider some snips from my March 29 post Trump Worried About 2.2 Million Deaths, Extends Shutdown Through April
Empathy
Trump displayed a quality I have never seen in him before: empathy. He spoke of black body bags as long as trucks and said “it’s not supplies, it’s people. I’ve never seen anything like it.”
In reference to Italy, Trump says “We got lucky”.
That’s certainly a new behavior.
Had Trump managed to stay on that level his ratings would be much higher.
Instead, Trump has been making foolish comments over state’s rights, gotten into battles with the press and governors, and does daily press conferences that look more like campaign speeches.
- April 13: Trump’s Council to Re-Open America is a Basket of Buffoonery
- April 13: Let’s Compare Trump 2020 Comments to Nixon Comments in 1977
- April 15: Trump Threatens to Adjourn Congress to Make Appointments
- April 15: The Art of a Failed Oil Deal
Of the above, it is point number 2 that will ultimately be the most damaging.
Trump had the audacity to Tweet that he could tell governors when states had to reopen. Numerous governors quickly put Trump in his place.
Back-to-work timeframes are debatable, but Trump made a complete fool out of himself regarding who is in charge. He had a chance to walk his statements back the next day, but instead he doubled down at a press conference when he claimed “total” authority.
Trump: “When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total. And that’s the way it’s got to be.“
Reporter 1: “Total?”
Trump: “It’s total. the governors know that. You have a couple of bands of Democrat governors but they will agree to it.“
Reporter 2: “You said when someone is president of the United States, their authority is total. That is not true.”
Trump: “You know what we are going to do. We’re going to write up papers on this, it’s not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other.”
The damage from that absurd exchange is not completely in. It happened very late in the polling period.
Since then, Trump made questionable at best statements on appointments as well as foolish proposals on energy, neither of which is yet reflected in the polls.
Power Grab
Independents and swing voters are galled at Trump’s blatant power grab statements and self-adulation.
That’s where the election will be won or lost. And it will be lost when independents and swing voters have had enough.
The issue is not Biden. It is Trump himself, just as it was Hillary in 2016.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Trump is just a regular guy! How can you not like a guy (or woman) that tells the press to shut up! C’mon Man!
His base? His base will vote for anyone that is not a lifelong politician! Or even smells like one!
Put someone else up there that is not a politician (as a job) and Trump’s base will be cut in half! And then we will all get checks in the mail!
I remember something about Mexico paying for a wall…
Your 4 points might explain most, but you missed a big one, namely that one reason his support might be dropping is because the shut-down is going much longer than the initial 2-week suggestion and people are seeing that it can have a devastating effect on their lives and the national economy and the experts have gotten it wrong all the time so their President (if they like him a little) got played and so isn’t the Big Boss they were hoping he might become, and his supporters are loyal still but expecting most of their territories to open pronto and if they don’t they’ll be mad.
Your analysis is mainly from the pov of those who are terrified of the virus and hate the President, believing him to be a Russian spy or Big Corporation Bogey Man or whatever and listen to the Globalist (Alphabet) Media: for those he has indeed done badly.(Though he is right that no matter what he does, that would be the case in their eyes.)
There’s a twist to what he said about ‘absolute authority.’ Leaving aside that it was technically incorrect as a general statement, and very poorly explained (as always with Trump, which I find infuriating), in a state of emergency there are many powers Governors usually have which they cannot unilaterally exercise under those statutes, and also there are things the Feds can insist upon – in terms of interstate commerce and other things – that the Governors cannot forbid – at least not lawfully.
But that’s a technicality. What he really did is provoked both the media and the Dem Governors to become staunch federalists. That means that those Governors who dally in opening up, who prevent HCQ+, who impose silly draconian things like not being able to go to your second home, not being able to go on a beach etc., well their constituents won’t be blaming the President now, will they? They will be addressing their objections to their Governors. Which is exactly what Trump wanted, and exactly what they all chorused they want too. Another win-win.
Isn’t Trump the most infuriatingly successful blow hard celebrity Reality TV President ever, eh?
The hill has his approval at 48% and Rasmussen and Reuters has him at 46% for a 45.6% avg approval rating headline…you are only hyper focused on the one survey that helps you justify your hate and rage of Trump…you should change your website to Mish Talk – Daily Trump Rage
It is unbelievable that after all the revelations about the Democrat controlled Deep State in DC and the Pravda media in this country that anyone would support the Democrat Party. You can fix the uninformed but you can’t fix the stupid.
Democrats eat live puppies, dipped in Dijon mustard!
Wmjack50, brother, your mind has been swallowed up by right wing media labeling. “Pravda media”, objectively, both sides have their medias. Deep State, OK who? where? proof? Yes, gov’t agencies advocate for their work product and patterns, but that is natural for any organization. Question: how come gov’t is incompetent in all things but the Deep State is massively competent? Democratic Party is it’s legal name. You are biased and not objective.
we will all see how competent the deep state is when durham completes his investigation.
I have a plan. Split the country in 2. I suggest North South. Dems have the south so they can embrace their visitors from Mexico and the Reps take the north. All liberals/socialists move south. All conservatives move north. Two separate countries, two separate ideologies. Build a wall so no migration allowed between the two. Lets check back in 5,10 and 20 years time to see which of the two countries has done the best. We already know the answer because virtually all productive members of society will be in the same country.
Mish you are a shadow of your former self. You have changed so much that i reckon you have been got at.
One country will have a strong vibrant economy and the other will have thriving LGBT arts scene and a penchant for making blockbuster films.
Trump and done and said so many incredibly stupid things during this Covid crisis, I can’t see how the Democrats won’t have a 2/3 majority in both houses for at least the next 12-20 years. There has to be a major shift between parties. Just as Hoover empowered the Democrats for 20 years, Trump has done the same. Not taking it seriously for a long time, and saying that it would vanish on it’s own were critical failures that will not be forgotten. Holding the checks for a few extra days to put his name on them was in incredibly poor taste, and will make a lot of people angry. The list goes on and on.
On the whole, he’s been a better President than I expected. That’s because he’s actually done a couple of things right, which was more than I expected. Those right things, however, can’t possibly outweigh his incredible incompetence in handling Covid19.
FWIW, and because I’m not US “I get to think or feel what I like” about your president , I throw in my view.
I don’t have a negative view of him. In Europe the US is generally seen to have a slightly crass side to it, so seeing that at presidential level is no big deal, maybe because there is a raw honesty to it also. I think he has good intent, I think his material pursuits are almost innocent compared to what else goes on in the world. Big ego, well that is a lot of people also, he doesn’t hide it.
When it comes to foreign policy, it is much better than some alternatives. I don’t agree with US position in the middle-east, but it’s a sump that he has got too close to even if he is more moderate. China and its an odd game going on.
The government comes across a tad nepotic, I guess that is only part self defence.
I could say what he hasn’t done but projected to, what he could have done better etc., but I’m not that close to the reality of those so as an outsider it is not so much here or there – I’m sure people in the US have their own long list of gripes of one kind or another.
For the virus and its handling, I don’t know. I give it the benefit of the doubt for now because the whole background is very confused. It’s not a strongpoint of his, he comes across detached from it at times, but at least there is not endless false concern… his character is not one that is based on shows of emotion but more on transmiting feelings of popularity and success, including his own .
Well, I’ll leave you all to at it again.
Wins in a landslide as the fascists governors overplay their hands with authoritarian orders, dystopian liberal fantasy lands and lockdown madness…now the people will deflect their anger towards them where it belongs and his response is going to fade into the back of the 22 million unemployed and including families probably more like 40 million that are going to bed hungry, out of work and getting very irritated…not going to end well
“Congress’ approval rating reaches 30%.” For what? They’ve done nothing. Remember those polls that said Hillary had 85%?
they were handing out free money. average people thought they would get some. they’ll wake up soon enough.
again IF CHOICE is President Trump or gropin dementia Joe
no choice – again
by default President Trump – btw who is doing stellar job right now
Joke of the century: tRump gets a job approval from 43% of americans!
Sorry higher than that but Mish and CNN only post the ones that fit their hate and rage narrative.
NY ( including upstate and western parts of the state) and NJ have a population about 17.2 million, that represents 8.6% of the US population. NY and NJ has 17,229 covid deaths.
The remaining 48 states with 310 million or 91.4% of the US population has 13,786 covid deaths
And your point … ?
Or are you just so alone you want to virtually hear yourself talk?
If your point is that NY and NJ were late to react and are now paying the price through virus spread and deaths — well thanks for the very late news flash.
If your point is that the other states should have just ignored this pandemic and kept business as usual because ‘who cares about old people compared to keeping the Starbucks open’ — well…I’m actually not sure what to say. Other than you appear to be late to the game here and if the area you represent keeps that attitude, the virus will eventually make it there. It has in several areas that would be considered ‘rural’ in WA and TX (just off the top of my head) and obviously is affecting areas in LA even though that state isn’t very densely populated.
… for now.
Rate of spread is slowing down and was slowing down prior to any fascist house arrest order…you want to be culled like a little sheep that is your choice lock yourself down and wait for the gates poison vaccine but to impose your will and fear into others F**K you back to work everyone
Without a time frame for your first sentence, there can be no judgement of whether it is true or false. However, given that curves for the hardest hit area in the country were almost going vertical before and after the stay-at-home order, I don’t believe you.
The rest of your statement doesn’t make much sense.
1st case was WA, January 13th, add up actual cases reported and in March as it stated to get warmer R0 started trending down…my guess it was here sooner
Whats with all the slinging $hit?
I used to enjoy Mish’s site for his financial insights, but between the doom porn, TDS and people with hair triggers, I’m beginning to wonder. Do you live in NYC?
you seem agitated.
My only point is that about 6% of the population in the New York City area accounting for 55% of the deaths is a statistical anomaly.
You than use the judgemental term “late to react” as if they reacted earlier
they wouldn’t be “paying the price”, what should have been done and when?
I may be late to the game here because I never saw a mention of those numbers on this site, just the usual Monday morning quarterbacks and doom porn.
Thanks for your concern and well wishes for the area I represent but I’m quite confident we’ll be just fine.
Please do some homework on WA, TX and LA.
The reason I am agitated is that the statement “about 6% of the population in the New York City area accounting for 55% of the deaths is a statistical anomaly” is an example of ‘linear thinking’ (and this isn’t really a crack on you — linear thinking is natural because our experiences are generally linear; small adjustments from one time to another). This problem, however, has a tendency to move non-linearly. And you have to react to small perturbations that look unimportant before they increase to something much worse.
This was the point about the other states. And I don’t have to do any homework on those areas — they are affected and they represent ‘less dense’ areas that have easily supported propagation of this disease. Out of that list, WA was surprised first but has done an admirable job of dropping their infection rate. The others I think are too early to tell right now. In all cases, they have had spread from central cities to outlying areas when there were no/less restrictions – which was my original point.
Those outlying areas will be able to open up first – make no mistake, that is where economic activity will start to normalize — but the thought that they don’t have to worry about this virus or that just the cities have the problem and therefore they don’t have to pay attention is just dangerous.
Your right, I am a linear thinker and it has served me well, I probably wont/cant change now.
As I reflected on your question ” And your point is ?”, I believe my linear thinking is what highlighted the statistical anomaly that is Covid in the greater New York City area. Why not Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas? these three MSA’s combined exceed New York’s MSA population by 50%, but the three STATES of California, Illinois and Texas have a combined death toll of 2627 vs New York’s 17,000. I could only think of two possible explanations, density or number of international travelers, but that’s a whole discussion in itself.
My sole purpose of posting these numbers was frustration with the self centered pompous thinking of the mainstream media, Mish himself with a straight line chart of deaths out to May or June, and some really outrageous predictions of millions of deaths in the US by others on this site.
I never said or insinuated that the rest of the country has nothing to worry about, that was something you assumed and got yourself all agitated about.
The fact remains that 6% of the population accounts for 55% of the deaths in the US, if my hypothesis of why is correct, that ratio will not vary by much.
PS: Ive never been to a Starbucks
Trump disgusts me, but with the Bill of Rights suspended, I’m leery about letting anyone on the left have power.
What exactly is the right doing now that’s any better? Waffling about pandemic measures? Burning trillions of dollars?
It’s not just crony capitalism vs UBI, or social distribution vs national distribution etc. The attitude of the left on a vast range of topics is diametrically opposed to that of the right.
As outsider I can pick and choose what ideas I agree with, from whichever side, but that is easy, much easier than anyone choosing who they would allow to govern them.
The Bill of Rights have been suspended since Lincoln or thereabouts. At least.
Trump vs. Hillary wait four years … Trump vs. Joe. That’s the best the Democrats can come up with? Good Lord! I might just sit this one out. Let’s see who his running mate is. Good chance he or probably she will finish out his term.
When every member of the “elite” is a straight up idiot, you’re stuck picking from a pool consisting of nothing but idiots.
Recently declassified documents indicate that senior intelligence officials were fully aware that the Steel dossier was fake and still used it to remove Trump from office. And there is plenty more we don’t know yet.
I didn’t vote in 2016 but these criminals need to be brought to justice. The CIA has been politicized and itt’s extremely dangerous for a ‘democracy’ to have its intelligence community decide elections.
If anyone other than Trump become president, all investigations will be shut down.
If they control the elections, why was trump elected? The will of God Almighty? Why does God Almighty allow the CIA to continue undermining His Holy Messenger?
Sure you don’t want to launch into a diatribe about Hillary and the missing server in Ukraine? This article is about the effect of the Covid crisis on the election, what’s the Steele Dossier have to do with it?
The covid crisis will help Trump more than it hurts him because the depression was going to happen anyway (although it might have happened next year) and Trump has something to blame it on.
As for going slightly off topic, next time I’ll put an O/T at the top. I’ve been following Mish for over 13 years so I tend take liberties.
I’m a non-voter, btw.
When a state declares a “State of Emergency” they are declaring an emergency that the state is incapable of handling alone.
They are asking the Federal government for money, resources and management.
Is short, while the state of emergency exists (and a Govenor can cancel it at any time), they have essentially turned their state over to the Federal government to manage that emergency.
From FEMA’s website:
“The President of the United States is the sole party capable of declaring an emergency or major disaster. Furthermore, only the governor of the state requesting disaster declaration has the authority to call upon the President to do so. When such a declaration occurs, it gives FEMA the green light to take charge by means of financially and physically controlling the situation.”
Elections are bought.
DJT will keep upping fiscal stimulus … $trillions and $trillions in current deficit … until he sees his approval numbers rise.
No matter the future damage done.
You got it!
Well, at least it’s unlikely Trump’s approval rating falls another 6 points among Democrats.
As an independent, the depths of disgust with this guy have been reached. I literally can’t despise him any more than I do.
The Democrats are obviously despicable. They have been out to get Trump since the beginning and he is refusing to allow them to get away with it.
Hope you get 4 more years to despise him. The Democrats deserve it STRONGLY.
My governor, Jared Polis, is at 75% approval.
The Dumpster® is at 43% in Colorado.
Personally I never thought to much of Trump; narcissist and bombastic
You forgot: incoherent, inarticulate, incompetent, incontinent, and morbidly obese.
His base identifies strongly with that. STRONGLY.
Forrest Gumps odds are improving.
Dumpster or Gump, what a choice!
Isn’t “me, me, me” the attitude of most Americans?
Most Democrats vote Democrat for virtue signalling not because they believe in Liberal values.
But then again it’s the same with Republicans.
“Smaller government!!!” Infinite bailouts.
Yesterday Mish said “F the WHO”, I would say “F this country”. I have long prepared a plan to leave this country, and I think I will once we are back to “normal”.
I’ve never cared for the guy, but I didn’t necessarily vote for him, I voted against Hillary who I really couldn’t stand. I think the same will happen this time around, Joe is more likeable, but he’s just not playing with a full deck, so Trump it is. Being a narcissist does help make other countries fear us and I like that, don’t want a limp noodle for president.
Vote for the limp noodle and not the limp dick.
He’s not able to complete a sentence. You would really vote for someone with dementia?
Get ready for the cult members chanting praise for the Great Leader, Kim Il Trump.