When I first saw this hoax comment, I thought someone took Trump out of context. But no, it’s real.
President Trump made a fool out of himself proclaiming the Coronavirus is a Hoax.
President Donald Trump on Friday night tried to cast the global outbreak of the coronavirus as a liberal conspiracy intended to undermine his first term, lumping it alongside impeachment and the Mueller investigation.
He blamed the press for acting hysterically about the virus, which has now spread to China, Japan, South Korea, Iran, Italy and the U.S, and he downplayed its dangers, saying against expert opinion it was on par with the flu.
“The Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. They’re politicizing it,” he said. “They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. No, they can’t. They can’t count their votes. One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.’ That did not work out too well. They could not do it. They tried the impeachment hoax.”
Then Trump called the coronavirus “their new hoax.”
After Trump had downplayed the risks of coronavirus, he reassured supporters that the White House was “magnificently organized” in fighting it. In fact, Trump’s administration spent the week jockeying among themselves to lead the response, while the stock market tumbled with losses not seen since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Community Spread in the US
At roughly the 3:50 mark Trump says “This is the new hoax. We have lost nobody to coronavirus in the united states*. The Press is in hysteria mode.*”
The entire video is worth a play. It discusses a three day school closure in Washington State as a high school kid contracted the disease in an unknown fashion. They are disinfecting the school. Details below.
Coronavirus Global Update
3 New US Cases
- 1 in Washington State: a 18-year-old student from Jackson High School in Mill Creek with no travel history to an outbreak area who on Feb. 24 had body aches, chills and a headache. After feeling better, he returned to school, before test results came out on Feb. 28. The school will be closed for a few days of deep disinfecting.
- 1 in Washington State: a woman in her 50s with confirmed travel to Daegu, South Korea.
- 1 in Oregon
239 New Cases in Europe
- 239 new cases and 8 new deaths in Italy. Among the 1,049 active cases, 401 (38%) are hospitalized, and 105 (10%) are in intensive care. Among the 79 closed cases, 50 (63%) have recovered, 29 (37%) have died.
- 8 new cases in Norway, bringing the total to 15 in the country. Among the new cases, 4 are in Bergen and 3 are employees of the Ullevål University Hospital in Oslo. The authorities know the source of contagion for all 15 cases which are all linked to outbreaks abroad. [source]
- 10 new cases in Switzerland
- 16 new cases in France including 3 health workers at the Tenon Hospital in Paris who were contaminated by a patient who is in intensive care since Feb. 21.
- “All public gatherings of more than 5,000 people in a confined space are temporarily banned across France,” Health Minister Olivier Veran told journalists. The Paris half-marathon scheduled for Sunday, March 1 has been cancelled as a consequence.
- 5 new cases in Germany. The German government announced that travelers arriving from South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran must declare their health status upon arrival. Passengers from China were already required to do so. [Declaring health status. how totally useless]
Mideast
- 205 new cases and 9 deaths in Iran.
- 5 Iran parliament members have so far tested positive for the virus. Azerbaijan closes the border with Iran over coronavirus concerns.
Asia
- 813 new cases and 1 new death in South Korea.
- 1 new case in Thailand.
- 5 new cases in Taiwan.
- 8 new cases in Japan.
The above details from Worldometers.
Synopsis
Let’s not mince words. Even if the virus were to vanish into oblivion tomorrow, Trump is truly a moron to label this a hoax.
And by the way we now have a US death.
Washington state officials confirm a person has died of COVID-19, the first such death in the United States.
— The Long Game (@7LongGame) February 29, 2020
What’s Happening
- Feb 19: Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times
- Feb 24: Bond Yields Crash and Gold Soars on Pandemic Threat
- Feb 25: CDC Admits Spread of Coronavirus in the US Appears Inevitable
- Feb 25: Lie of the Day: This is Not a Pandemic
- Feb 25: Nearly 50% Odds of “At Least” 3 Rate Cuts by December
- Feb 26: Trump says We are “Very, Very Ready for the Coronavirus, for Anything”
- Feb 27: Useless Act: California Monitors 8,400 People for Coronavirus; 33 Test Positive
- Feb 27: Containment Fails: Coronavirus Tweets of the Day
- Feb 27: Tweets of the Day: Iran’s VP Infected, Japan Closes All Schools
- Feb 28: 5 Mistakes by the CDC and FDA Set Back Virus Testing
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
this virus is taking over the world..
Hey Mish,
What Trump was really referring to was the Democrats are going to use the Corona Virus as their new HOAX against him in anyway they can to hurt him. Just like the Russian Hoax etc.
The panic is people thinking it is very deadly. That is the hoax Trump is call out.
It is like the flu that has no vaccine BIG DEAL
I understand Trump’s context. The democrats have been out to get Trump from day one and are politicizing Covid-19, just as they politicized the impeachment hearings.
WASHINGTON STATE KEPT THOSE OLD PEOPLE TOGETHER, AND HIDES THE FACTS ABOUT THE VIRUS. NOW A BUNCH OF THEM WILL DIE AND THEY WILL BLAME TRUMP! LONGER INCUBATION AND THREE TIMES THE NUMBER OF DEATHS, THAN THE REGULAR FLU! HOWEVER, NOT EVEN CLOSE TO Zika, Ebola, and SARS,! three to six times higher in deaths than this virus! IT IT IS JUST A STRONG FLU! Good SANITATION AND STAY OUT OF LARGE GROUPS. IF SOME ONE IS SICK IN THE GROUP YOU ARE AROUND, THEN, LEAVE IMMEDIATELY!
Well, as RonJ says below people often attack Trump for being too brash and undignified etc., but he’s had 95% negative (and often viciously so) press, not to mention all the treachery in the IC and resistance in the Judiciary and Legislature. Just remembering the Press alone, no matter what he does he faces a storm of criticism usually comprising mainly lies or deliberate obfuscation (like this ‘coronavirus is a hoax’ fake news talking point.
Imagine how he would be behaving if he wasn’t being treated the way he has been? It cannot be done because the treatment he has endured is without precedent. Yes, Bush Sr and Jr and Reagan and Nixon were similarly persecuted in the media, but not to this degree and without so much obstruction from Courts and Congress.
Frankly, it’s very hard to judge Trump’s presidency in terms of Trump the President per se. The whole thing has been a huge hot mess, one that he has definitely contributed to by being so successful a populist leader, but also one whose vitriol is solely due to the unmitigated disgust and scorn meted out to him by most of the coastal elite types.
Things will change once his long-awaited counterpunch plays through. If they fail to prosecute some of the upper echelon types who have been leading the Administrative State Resistance, he won’t win re-election. If they do, then there is a huge amount of humble pie his opponents are going to have to eat and he’ll win in a landslide.
Based on how he has defied expectations all along and racked up an extraordinary list of accomplishments already, my bet would be that he’s going to win with over 400 electoral votes.
If Bloomberg tries to buy influence with TV propaganda he will lose. Why? TV isn’t it any more. If he tries to outmeme the homegrown ‘alt-right’ memers, he’ll fall short. You can’t buy that sort of ‘edge’ and humor, not really. That said, Bloomberg’s big effect might be to keep the House and take the Senate even if they can’t get the WH back, essentially lame-ducking Trump for the entirety of his last term. Biden is seriously senile. Bernie is a phony with no idea how to lead a large company, let alone a country and if he’s the main guy Trump might do even better than Nixon (who was only beaten by the Deep State helping with the Watergate burglary and then leaking their own inside info otherwise…). Buttigieg is being set up for later recognition (Rhodes Scholar globalist CIA stooge par excellence) and there’s no-one else of note.
In any case: it is impossible to evaluate Trump’s actions in isolation of the extraordinary environment he’s been operating in which is mainly not of his making.
I hope he succeeds because also I hope many big ‘made men’ (and women) are going to go to jail, or even be executed.
And also because if he fails, far worse people and forces will be in the ascendant and do far worse than anything he has done so far (been a good centrist, basically, with conservative judge appointments rebalancing the Judiciary somewhat).
And let’s face it: he’s fun. Like his criticizing the Fed so brazenly today. It’s a pity he can’t string sentences together like Clinton and Obama – frankly it’s weird how he talks I find – but most of his messaging is persuasive and on point. Definitely a one-off.
Mish, your Type A TDS is showing…..
I don’t have a theory about this – though there are no doubt many out there – but one interesting thing about this outbreak is that, because it originated in China which pursued an aggressive containment policy (albeit probably too little too late after their Jan 23 New Year’s travel fest), the Chinese role in world supply chain has been brought front and center into focus for many. I was shocked to learn that US only makes 7% of the masks they use regularly, that they don’t make aspirin or that most of the ingredients for basic medicines including antibiotics are sourced only in China.
This is extremely unbalanced. I can’t believe the US spends almost a trillion a year on military maintenance alone, let alone untold trillions on the (now mainly criminal) intelligence community which has infiltrated all levels of regional and national government, higher education media and Big Business and yet hasn’t practiced even a modicum of sane security-related practices, like maintaining steel, medicine, computer and other production in-country.
Strange that this horrible Orange Man Bad you seem to despise so much has been pushing against this for decades now, and more aggressively so whilst President despite being blocked and attacked on each and every thing he says or tries to do.
In any case, along with killing some of us off, looks like the corona will help bring the world supply chain configuration back to a more sane playing field, so perhaps we can take a little comfort from that.
Amen to your comments. God help me, I voted for Trump but,,,,If someone doesn’t pull his head out of his a$$ soon, we will loose all respect ( if that hasn’t happened already) from our allies. You can’t play the “know it all” on topics you clearly don’t know sh** about! The VP is our only hope for some future credibility.
The hype is a hoax. Why isn’t the media going batshit crazy over the flu, which has much worse stats than Coronavirus?
– “The most recent statistics, collected through the week ending January 25, 2020, report that there have been 19 million cases of influenza during US 2019-20 flu season. This is an increase of 4 million cases since the last report.
Additionally, the CDC has recorded 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from the flu thus far. Based on these figures, severity is not considered high at this point in the flu season”.
Perhaps Trump should do exactly what Obama did for the swine flu?
Thanks to everyone who followed my lead to call Mish out for creating fake news political click bait. I remember the good old days when Mish was actually concerned about money supply and government debt. Now Mish creates a political echo chamber where any dissenting views (such as my last post) are promptly deleted.
When the facts don’t match his narrative Mish deletes posts to silence the truth.
I keep going back to the data about resolved cases. I assume that once a patient is identified as a known case that the individual is tracked until the case is resolved.
As a Chemical Engineer, I think about it as a unit operation such as a distillation column with one inlet and two outlets. New cases come in and recovered cases flow out the top and mortality cases flow out the bottom. There is a certain residence time as those cases work their way up and down and new case input varies over time. The size of the column will need to be adjusted to account for the changes in feed volume and residence time. At the end of the day, all that matters is getting the highest number of cases to come out the top. Right now, it looks like 20% come out the bottom and 80% come out the top.
What am I missing?
Worldometer: Ex-China, there are 124 deaths and 521 people recovered. That is 20% of cases resolved by death.
The Lancet: The study of 99 cases. 42 were resolved at the time of the study. 11 of 42 resolved cases died which is 26% of resolved cases. link to thelancet.com
We are missing a lot of data, much of it known but not shared. I leave it there because we go in circles trying to get an answer.
I put CFR/IFR over 1% up to 10%, I put it at over 0.2% in young and healthy population. Both of those minimums are not acceptable and lead to heavy losses from a virus that is very contagious and likely to infect swathes of the population. The above data is using limited official real case study, the lower bounds given are not likely to be higher than reality.
That simple until proved otherwise,
Some think there are so many mild undeclared cases that those CFRs are exaggerated high, still waiting for any kind of proof for that idea.
Here is an example of real false narrative, there is a lot it has turned into a meme in some countries
Saying 2% CFR for nCov, flu is higher. You would have to translate it, but the errors are unbelievable. Have seen other msm sources using unreal figures also – and these are professional hospital and gov. staff presenting these views.
The best data is the Diamond Princess, since all passengers were screened, we know who were mild cases/asymptomatic, etc. from there you can watch the case fatality rate versus recovery rate. Right now I think we are at 7/705, so about 1% but of course not everyone is recovered yet so that could go up. Ultimately this stupid disaster of leaving everyone on the boat to get infected eventually, provides a good case study. The CFR might be higher as the majority of people were older, on the other hand, they were all at least healthy enough to take a cruise. When all those patients either recover or die we will have a good honest sample.
What you are missing is the obvious: GIGO. Not all of the data is equal. Many countries haven’t counted asymptiomatic cases, thinking that makes it look better because it sounds like fewer people are infected. Instead, it makes it look worse as it makes it look like an extremely high percentage of people end up in serious/critical condition, and die. Alternately, rather than ignoring the asymptiomatic cases, they simply don’t catch them.
At this point there are only two data sets I trust, the Death Princess, and S. Korea, however, both of those have some things that may affect them. The average age on the Death Princess was very high, with lots of retirees on board, so the hospitalization rate and death rate will both be well above what we will see in the general population. As for Korea, many of the cases come from a single huge church. I don’t know their age distribution, but individual churches often skew one way or another; some have lots of older people, some lots of younger people. Few have a representative mix.
The Death Princess cases have all been around awhile, so they are more advanced. We should see more of them resolved in the next week or two. The Korean cases have all largely been discovered in the last week or two, so it may be a month before they are resolved.
Right now you are missing the cases that never come into the tank; infected and recover without seeking medical assistance or testing.
Coronovirus is a hoax in the same way Russia was a hoax. Both are real factors and real problems but Trump doesnt want to be blamed for either.
The photo of Trump has “Coronavirus is a hoax” layered over it as tho quoting Trump. That is a lie and you must know it. Shame.
Destroyer of conservatism. Destroyer of the GOP. Trump vests Bernie on us. Bad leaders beget bad leaders. Populism unleashed. $nevertrump $neversanders
Like Stalin’s Lyshenko-ism. It’s only a short stop from an American Hitler or Stalin IMO.
Lyshenko… Wtf is Lyshenko?
Gresham’s Law.
In Illinois now…
By the end of the first week of March there will be many, many more.
Not contained, not a political hoax.
It will have been a real failure of working to get ahead of a long-heralded significant illness.
Effective leaders in crisis need self-awareness, self-control, social awareness, and practice relationship management. If the discussion of the crisis cannot be separated from a politically charged discussion, there will only be worse outcomes in store for all Americans. Trump is lacking in those vital attributes to be an effective leader in a crisis.
For his own political survival and the good of America he needs to get effective, knowledgeable people who understand what is needed in leadership positions ASAP. In two weeks this will have spun badly out of control from the weak beginning of his administrations response. That won’t be good for anyone.
I agree.
The worst thing either side can do in this political climate is use this issue to try to score political points or point fingers.
There are two very polarized camps…
On the one hand you have a significant portion of the population who believes Trump is Hitler himself reincarnated and his supporters are the equivalent of the Nazi Brownshirts.
On the other hand you have a significant portion of the population that believes every Democrat is a card carrying commie/socialist gun-and-money grabbing sonofabitch and the media is their personal propaganda arm.
Given this reality, the very last thing anyone in a position of power or in the media should be doing is stoking those fires. If you’re a politician making a campaign speech, just don’t talk about it. If you’re in the media, try to stick to the facts when you’re reporting and leave the conjecture for other issues.
Instead you have Trump talking about the virus in a political speech to supporters and making a statement that was confusing and of course was pounced upon by certain members of the media as Trump labeling the virus itself as a hoax.
Then, you have Bloomberg – less than 24 hours later – running radio spots using chopped up audio from that speech to make it sound as if Trump said the virus was a hoax.
This is dangerous ground – Because if by chance the bodies start piling up, people will want SOMEONE to blame. And people in stressful situations who feel helpless and desperate may make irrational decisions and decide to start taking out their anger on those they deem responsible.
No one wins in that situation.
“On the one hand you have a significant portion of the population who believes Trump is Hitler himself reincarnated and his supporters are the equivalent of the Nazi Brownshirts.
On the other hand you have a significant portion of the population that believes every Democrat is a card carrying commie/socialist gun-and-money grabbing sonofabitch and the media is their personal propaganda arm.”
Are you suggesting they are wrong?
The sad part is: They’re not; yet the same drones still can’t help falling all over themselves clamoring for both of the above to be granted ever more power over the lives of others.
As of today, as can be seen from link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com There are 500 new cases in China, same as the day before, and up from the 321 the day before that. The curve for new cases in China is not flattening out as predicted last week by some. This shows that despite draconian measures, China cannot stop Covid-19. What chance does the USA have, which doesn’t even have kit to test it? The scientists last month were right: the whole globe will be affected. Monday should gap down, barring some dead cat bounce. DJ-30 to 20k then 10k on the index.
You walked him, Mish.
Nancy and the wingnuts went wild on Jan. 31st. when Trump began signaling he was going to severely restrict inbound China flights.
Exactly. Trump initially held the high ground, and had a win-win position. Had he played the “we are going to fight this, but it is not containable” card, his position would have been unassailable. Instead he played the “it is contained” card. It boggles my mind that anyone would do that.
nope
Mish, how is it that someone as smart as you can be so easily fooled? Trump said “Coronavirus is a hoax,” but if you read/listen to his entire talk, what he meant was the democrats accusation of him being at fault for the coronavirus spreading is a hoax, which of course it is. Dang, Mish.
Trump is playing to his base. Of course he doesn’t believe it’s a hoax, he’s a populist like Reagan, catering to his base, recall at one point he was a Democrat from what I understand, but some in his base don’t believe in either Global Warming (man made or otherwise) nor in Covid-19, so he’s pandering to them (and to you, by being ambiguous in his statements). The dumb elected him the first time. Sadly, I’d probably vote for him over Bernie.
No western nation has the ‘China Option’ of brutal quarantines. So like Japan and the EU, the US is going to just have to plow our way through the pandemic. The evidence suggests that 98% of the population will suffer nothing more than seasonal flu. For older folks, diabetics and people with coronary conditions it can be fatal but only about 20% of the elderly die. I’m 68 so I’m in the high risk category. Absent a treatment my best chance to get through this is to keep the mild cases out of the hospital and the best way to do that is to calm public fears that a mild fever is not life theatening if you are under 60 and in good health.
In Italy the figures are 38% are hospitalised, and a further 10% are in intensive care. I think precautions are to monitor those with stronger symptoms closely, no matter age group. One doctor said of his hospital , most but not all hospitalised are older patients. If there is a big load of cases the hospitals will not be able to care for all properly.
Ray, if you look at the Chinese data in detail, almost all their new cases continue to be from Wuhan. For the last week, on a daily basis they have reported as new cases from the entire rest of the country: 27,9,5,13,20,3,4. On a province by province basis, they have reported in the last week:
Hubei 3453
Bejing 14
Sichuan 12
Guangdong 10
Hebei 9
Shandong 6
Hunan 5
Chongqing 4
Shanghai, Fujian, Guangxi 3
Every other province is 2 or less.
That leaves only two possibilities. One is that brutal controls work (if you don’t wait too long to implement them). The other is that their data is wrong.
…several hundred new cases is peanuts on a 1,5 bln population , more people die in traffic accidents on a daily basis, and mortality rate in China is over 10 million/year….Everything is relative to its own frame of reference Einstein said….
You trust the MSM?
He misspeaks, but not as badly as Biden.
This is the same as “The Fine People Hoax”.
Which they also stop the tape before he clarifies.
The video clip begins and ends with “this is a (their?) new hoax”, then follows with a separate clip from another time saying “We have lost nobody to coronavirus in the United States.”
Nothing but editorial voice-over and video editing explains what “this” is. For all we know, it could be reports of missing ships in the Bermuda Triangle.
As a life long sufferer of using ambiguous “this”s, watching this without cringing isn’t easy. This video seems, itself, a hoax. Why did it work on you?
To be clear: “a (their?)” meant I hear “a”, but believe it possible he said “their”.
Ray, the video tricked you. Who was “discussing coronavirus”? In particular, who was discussing the coronavirus disease as opposed to, say, the Italian’s response to the disease, or how the disease might affect the world’s overall economy, or the Bermuda Triangle?
Watch and listen to the video. The video contains two separate clips of Trump. Separate clips, smoothly edited to appear as one.
The first clip contains the word, “this”. “This” references something. We don’t know what. But, the people who produced the video tell us. Is there any reason to believe them? Well, if they were telling the truth, why did they not include Trump’s previous sentence to explain “this”? Why did they instead use a Trump quote from another time to help imply – imply, not say – what “this” means in the first clip? And why did they precede the first clip with their own, long description that implies – implies, not says – what “this” meant?
These people are pros. They created a slick, professional video to make Trump say something absurd. Why?
I’m not sure about the voice-over, but the video edit is very obvious (white fade-out), I don’t know how anyone could reasonably conclude anything about what Trump said.
Mish, you clearly heard or understood something entirely different than I did. I used to read your blog everyday without fail. Not anymore. I thought you were very astute on money, the Fed, and a few other subjects. You clearly have lost it when trying to interpret the political situation and are slowly allowing TDS seep into your brain. Stage 1 only so far. Listen again and you will see that he was referring to the Hoax as a politicization by the Democrats of the Covid 19 virus.
I’m an avid reader myself, and I come here for the analysis. Not commentary on the nonsense of people.
If you don’t like Mish’s take, you can either cancel your free subscription, or skip over the article. I doubt anybody will care, it’s a free country (for now).
Are those numbers correct? Did i see french cases went up by 43 to 100? That is nearly 70% up! Another example of not testing and prentending for too long? France and Thailand are among the favourite tourist destinations of chinese.
Everywhere is now on the up. Even China’s increase was higher today having been declining. Maybe that’s a one off, or maybe it’s starting to spread again having relaxed containment.
“It was also revealed that Italian health officials are being ‘forced’ by the ECDC to make changes in their testing protocols, a move that may slow the growth of new coronavirus case numbers. The country is required to limit coronavirus testing to at-risk people showing symptoms of COVID-19, said Dr Giuseppe Ippolito, scientific director at Italy’s National Institute for Infectious Diseases.
Previously, Italy was testing anyone who visited certain towns in northern Italy or came into contact with someone infected with the coronavirus but not necessarily showing symptoms.
Dr Ippolito said the shift corresponds with so called ‘updated recommendations’ from the ECDC or European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
Spain has earlier revealed how the EU and ECDC has prevented it from reporting to the public and media about coronavirus cases in its country by citing regulatory technicalities involving classification and definition of coronaviruses cases despite all nucleic acid tests confirming the infected cases.
Media personnel are now questioning as to whether there is a ‘coverup’ or ‘downplay’ that is being orchestrated through a concerted efforts of the UN, WHO, EU and ECDC.”
thailanmedical.news
I posted it on an old thread but it bears repeating. I can vouch for change of Italian test protocol, and also that Spain has downplayed ( but not if EU was involved – don’t know)
The data set you want to watch is S. Korea. They are testing everyone, including asymptiomatic people. The result is that we can see real percentages for what percentage of people end up hospitalized, and a CFR. Omitting China and Iran, where the data is questionable, compare the following:
Korea: 3736 cases, 10 serious/critical, 21 dead
Italy: 1128 cases, 105 serious/critical, 29 dead
Death Princess: 705 cases, 36 serious/crit, 6 dead
In Korea and on the Death Princess, they did or are doing testing of everyone, including asymptiomatic people. The average age on the Death Princess was much higher, however, so you would expect more serious cases.
Serious/Critical percentages:
Death Princess: 5%
Italy 3.1%
Korea: .6%
Average flu: .2%
So, why is Korea’s percentage so much lower? There are two possibilities I can think of. First, there may be a hidden iceberg of cases in Italy that are asymptiomatic, and not being caught, such that their real hospitalization rate is lower than the apparent rate. The second one is that it takes time for cases to progress to the stage where people are in serious/critical condition, and Korea is doing such a good job of catching people early that they are barely into the infection, and that later on, we will see their serious and critical cases rise significantly.
Of these, the Death Princess tells me that the second is more likely. Despite extensive testing, there was no vast pool of people who were infected but which otherwise would not have been detected. Thus, I expect that the S. Korean numbers will get worse in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, I think that the numbers tell me that countries that show a higher than expected death rate, or serious/critical ratio to total cases are probably only catching the worst cases, and catching them late in the infection.
Was just comparing those figures myself and came to same conclusion – low serious case % was due to recent infection, those higher were lack of testing. Italy did a lot of testing, but many cases are new also. Italy has stopped wide testing now. UK had done wide testing with very low cases found, showing quiet background infections not so much a reality (at least there). UK cases are recent so not many serious. In Spain five are listed as serious in the local press, and total infected is something around 75 now. Note that Italy serious is around 10 %, and that previous Italy article said 10% in ICU , with 38% hospitalised. So at least in Italy’s case serious at worldometer means ICU . In Thailand a 35 yr old fatality, he also had Dengue fever (0.05% CFR@conversation as far as I read ) from Bangkok post
” The Public Health Ministry is still looking into the role played by the coronavirus in the fatality, Dr Suwannachai said.
Tests for the coronavirus came back negative since Feb 16 but “the damage was already done to his body” from the earlier bout of infection by the new disease, said Tawee Chotpitayasunondh, the department adviser.”
I don’t think he meant “hoax”, he was just referring it as the “next thing the dems can use to bring him down”. It was a terrible choice of words. I can see the line of thinking when you have people continuously attacking you but that was def an oops moment. Not nearly as bad as Biden factually claiming 150 million(almost half the US population) have been lost to gun violence, now that’s an idiot for you.
Did Trump use the “h-word” or not? If he meant to say something else, he should be clearer. He was deliberately ambiguous since some in his base believe Covid-19 is a hoax, believe Global Warming is a hoax, and probably believe the earth is flat and created literally in seven days (Bible belt Americans).
Breaking News : In the next few days, Trump will declare a Trade War against the Coronavirus.
Knowing Trump, he’s probably said statements both ways on the virus since he frequently rambles. What we do know is that his primary interest here are stock markets, which he foolishly tethered his entire legacy to. Every slogan from 2016 eventually whittled down to “muh stawks”.
Would be really nice if people could see Trump as another politician rather than wrapping their entire sense of being into believing this guy. The whole Q-anon mindset should be studied extensively as a cautionary tale.
Will having Pence, Kudlow, and Mnuchin in charge calm the markets, and stop the slide (obviously stopping the market slide is more important than stopping the virus)? I guess that depends why you think the market is sliding. Is it because?
If your answer is 1 or 5, you’re in luck, the slide should be over.
Millions will die but no one must doubt the words of the Great Leader, Kim Il Trump. He is our God and we worship Him.
If this turns out to not be a hoax then what does it say about his other hoax conspiracy theories, such as global warming?
Not a lot.
If he was saying it was a hoax, that would mean he was saying this virus doesn’t exist. Puh-lease. I’m no Trump fan but clearly he means that the left is making up a phony story of his administration’s incompetence on this.
I watched his statement today. It was as “presidential” as anything any modern president has done. He also now gets to blame economic and market problems on this black swan — how’s that for a free pass. Looks to me like the Bernie bros are going to be crying bitter tears into their bitter IPAs this November.
Well Obama got blamed for the aftermath of the great recession. If Trump i happy to take credit for the stock market records he should take it for its fall or not?
Trump could have gone that route, but oddly went the other way and stuck to his guns on the “greatest economy ever” nonsense. Clinging to an obviously rigged market was a blunder from the get-go and now it’s starting to bite him.
This is why I don’t understand people who despise him or think he’s a stable genius, at the end of the day he’s just another politician.
Too early to play that card. The Dow could be tearing past 30K before November.
Exactly. He was in a win-win position. If he controlled the coronavirus, he wins, and if he doesn’t, the economic problems aren’t his fault, so he wins again. Instead he played the “it’s contained, there is nothing to worry about” card, a card that is already showing itself to be false. As a result, if the Coronavirus does run free in the US, and messes up the economy, he can’t play the “it’s the virus’ fault card” because it’s his fault that the wasn’t prepared.
So, here’s Mr Market’s analysis…
Hint: you should be worried.
For ~80% of those infected, COVID19 is either mild, like the flu, or non-symptomatic (I.e a super-carrier).
The problem is the ~15% who need serious/critical care in a hospital.
The 15% is not a high-confidence number because so very few are actually confirmed via lab tests for COVID19; and the lab tests do not have a 100% confidence of correctness diagnosis level.
The fact is most of these estimates are coming from ‘confirmed by elimination’; I.e. testing done for known causes of respiratory illnesses returning a “no known cause” finding… assumption, COVID19.
And it’s because of this ‘confirmed by elimination’ estimation and the West, rightly, not believing in China’s numbers that led the financial markets to be ‘slow to respond.’
When the virus was confirmed in ‘pro-Western’ countries (I.e. S Korea and Italy), THEN the financial markets began to pay attention – because they believed they could get information they could begin to trust.
Which is why when the numbers began to grow in S Korea, the financial markets did this: “oh shit, this is real …
#1 we do not know if the 15% serious/critical rate is correct … shit
#2 but if it is, even if it is only 10% of the infected … and using a 50% of people ‘will be infected’ assumption … it means there will be more serious/critically ill patients than hospital beds/equipment … shit
#3 and that means politicians, who have shown for the last 15 years an increasing safety is paramount/we must do everything we can to protect everyone from the worst case scenario attitude the response will be to start quarantining … shit
#4 which means supply chains are going to be impacted in a significant but unknown way – because the whole world has gone to some form of a ‘just in time supply chain model’ where limited stock/supplies are held … shit
#5 and what about all the ‘service economy’ (i.e. restaurants, movies, hotels, etc.) parts of the economy … which is a VERY LARGE PERCENTAGE of the economy…. shit
#6 a large percentage of these service economy businesses are small business that normally do not have the savings to pay ‘shut-down bills’ for very long … shit
#7 much less pay their employees …. how many of them will have to ‘temporarily lay off’ most of their employees … shit
#8 and if a significant number of the service economy employees are temporarily laid off… how many of them are living pay-check-to-paycheck … do not have the savings to put food on the table or pay the rent or auto loan … shit, shit, shit
#9 And because no investment manager knows with any degree of confidence the answer to any of these things AND because it’s the beginning of the ‘investment year’ …. most of them will simply not step into buy, and they will begin to sell some of their holdings to ‘raise cash and limit their exposure’ … oh fuck, fuck, fuck
And that’s why Mr Market dropped his pants and screamed out his ass and won’t care one whit about the anecdotal experience or opinion of anyone.
In Illinois there are ~4,167,400 people who are 45 or older.
If 50% of them are COVID19 infected and 10% of that 50% require serious/critical medical attention in a hospital, that is 208,374 people.
If only 25% of those 208,374 people require hospitalization at the same time, that‘s 52,093 people.
Total number of hospital beds in Illinois … ~28,953 (as of 8/20/18)
It’s about the hospitalization rates, not the death rate.
It’s a new flu strain, so what. We had 50k flu deaths for 2017-18 flu years. How many this year? Look when it started. Right at flu season. The media and sensationalism at it’s best and americans critical thinking at it’s worst.
Because it’s so contagious & spreads before symptoms show, deaths may well be in seven figures by the end of it.
It’s not a flu, it’s a coronavirus. Flu’s generally kill 1 in 1000 who contract it. This virus is killing 1 in 40-50 and is probably more contagious.
The number of cases is currently going up 10x every 10-12 days outside of China, and about 1% are dying outside of Wuhan (where the medical system was overwhelmed). At that rate, by the end of March we can expect about 10 million cases worldwide, and about 1 million dead.
Thankfully this came at the end of flu season, not the beginning. There is a reasonably good chance that, like most flus, it will turn out to be seasonal, and that new infections will slow soon, and we will not get to 100k cases/1000 deaths in the US this Spring. If it returns in the Fall, which it may, we better have a vaccine, or next year will be very, very bad for flu deaths, with perhaps over 1m dead in the US alone. And, most of all, we need to hope that it is seasonal, because not all flus are. If it is not seasonal, and infections continue at the current rate, a vaccine this fall would be too late because the US Healthcare system would be overwhelmed by mid-April.
So, you may be right that it “just another flu” so long as it turns out to be seasonal, AND one of two things happens, either there is a vaccine ready by fall, or it doesn’t return in the fall. Any other scenario leads to disaster.
Note further that, unlike a normal flu, it resulted in a massive shutdown of industry in China. Even if it never has another case in the US, the US will still suffer great disruption from the lack of goods from China. 80% of medicines, for example, come from China. Large numbers of parts also do. For example, how long will it be until car makers have to shut down from lack of parts?
I would agree that the American coverage of this has been awful. They have consistently downplayed it, and repeatedly made the claim that “it’s just the flu”. Most Americans are pretty unaware just how dangerous this is. It’s good that it’s finally starting to get some real coverage. Still, it would be helpful if Trump would stop crashing stocks by acting so ignorant, and giving everyone the impression the he neither cares about the issue, nor has it under control. Every time he speaks it makes everyone fear for the worst, and the worst is very bad. He should just let the experts talk.
Clip from an Italian doctor, web translated
” (ANSA) – MILAN, FEB 29 – “There are patients in serious conditions. Most of them are elderly with other underlying diseases, but the rule is not 100%: there are also some young people in intensive care, but now I don’t know how many”. Angelo Pan, the director of the Infectious Diseases Unit of the ASST of Cremona, told ANSA, explaining that in his hospital doctors infected with the coronavirus “fortunately now do not appear.
Unfortunately, however, it will happen for sure, this virus is five times less severe than SARS but the medical personnel in contact is at risk “.
Already yesterday, in the meeting in the Lombardy Region, Pan shared the need to extend the limitations. “So maybe, instead of having a thousand patients in three weeks we will have 800 in 12 and the system will be able to handle the issue. If thousands of patients arrive together, no,” noted the doctor, who is also president of Simpios (Italian multidisciplinary society for the prevention of infections in healthcare organizations).”
Yes, that’s exactly the problem that the mainstream media never tells people. Yes, elderly die, and young people also, sometimes, and worse, it grows cases so rapidly that hospitals are overwhelmed. The doctors and experts know that, so let them do the talking.
I was going to go pick up a bunch of 1/4 x 4 x 8 sheets of lauan plywood and start redoing the kitchen floor. Wife wants that vinyl plank and I want a perfect base surface. Last July I bought some at $14.95/sheet for another project. Last night I checked the local stores. One has some, not enough, and the others are out of stock. What they do have they are charging $22.93 per sheet. Guess what my wife is not getting don this spring. Talked to my brother in Orange, Ca, and he says the line of ships waiting to unload in LA… there ain’t any. It’s hitting home now.
Because I’m reading up on Spain lately, there are similar stories there
is one example. Another is that exporters to China are losing a lot of business for whatever reason. Large tourism slowdown goes without saying, will cause major economic problems.
Greece is doing GREAT, at least it looks like it when you can catch a staggering 1% on its bonds….
Mish, don’t let Trump get under your skin. Not worth it.
Pointing and laughing is not ‘under your skin’. Clowns are funny.
It’s getting lively, and we haven’t even been locked up in quarantine for weeks on end yet. One site I visit in UK, the mod notices people go nuts online if there are weeks of rain or snow keeping them at home :/
For balance, I always like to see what PowerLine’s bloggers have to say about politics and current events.
Here’s a quote from the article: “Did Trump actually say the corona virus is a hoax? Of course not. The claim is idiotic. If the president thought the virus is a hoax, why did he do a press conference on it last week, along with various medical personnel? And why did he ban travel to China at the beginning of the outbreak?”
Mish, I love your blog and appreciate how you (usually) get all the facts before rendering an opinion. I think you jumped to a conclusion based on a source not well known for its objectivity.
He clearly doesn’t take it seriously. He and Kudlow think it’s contained. Of course, he may be guilty of wishful thinking because his hotels have to be getting crushed, along with anyone else in the travel business.
I don’t think it’s at all clear he doesn’t take it seriously from what I’ve read so far. I’m NOT a “he can do no wrong” Trumpian, I’m just tired of the media’s deliberate mis-representation intended to politicize every issue.
“I’m just tired of the media’s deliberate” Who is the “media”? Fox? CNN? MSNBC? I get a laugh whenever some one says main stream media an leaves out Fox.
At roughly the 3:50 mark Trump says “This is the new hoax. We have lost nobody to coronavirus in the united states*. The Press is in hysteria mode.*”
clearly his comment is dems blaming him for it is a hoax. Clearly.
Correct. That’s exactly how I took it.. Another hoax of the dems trying to blame him
Oh right, the “dog whistle” theory. Has it occurred to you lumping everyone into convenient, insulting stereotypes says more about you than them?
But it does make it easier to remain obliviously self-righteous.
As I have said, Trump had an opportunity. If he had taken charge, and dealt with this aggressively, and called for teamwork, he would have been re-elected in a landslide, regardless of how containment worked out. Instead, he said we have everything under control and that it is contained. It isn’t, and can’t be, and more Americans will die. He turned a win-win position into a lose-lose position.
My current projection is that I think coronavirus will be seasonal, and if it is, by the end of the season there will be about 60,000 Americans infected, and 600-1000 dead. If it doesn’t turn out to be seasonal, by the middle of April the healtcare system will be overwhelmed, and by the end of May there will be >100m infected, with >1m dead. If it is seasonal, and we have a vaccine by Fall, great, but if not, coronavirus may pick up in October where it left off, in which case we may have 100m infected by the time of the election.
The only other definite measure I can think of that would likely have been quite effective would have been to quarantine all inbound passengers.
Even using faulty test kits or WHO kits would not have done much beyond providing an uncertain warning.
What I don’t like is that the likely presence of community transmission these last weeks has been witheld or underplayed (this is not just US government, but just about everywhere). No one has stepped up in good time officially anywere to give realistic projections, that’s a big fail to my view.
People coming in from Mexico and Canada continuously that wouldn’t had been enough.
That is what I figured, or enemies of the US introducing it. Still, you put down a war footing and everyone is going to perk up and take it seriously, start making preparations and acting correct about it. I guess it would be a tough call to make, but either way credibility is on the line – if I had proper info that said that by either way there will be a pandemic if there is to be one, and the figures said heavy casualties, and that pandemic was judged as just about inevitable, I would go for the war footing all the same. I’m not the boss though , and am not facing whatever influence or opposition existed to such a move.
If 1/3 of the poplulation has it, as you suggest, you won’t need to worry about the next ‘election’ the US will be under complete military lockdown. You better stock up on food and ammo. You won’t feel like protecting or eating anything if you get this crap though. Best scenario is getting ‘lucky’ and not catch it and be able to ride it out. Don’t forget to pay your property taxes and mortgage while you’re not working it will be easier to catch in a homeless shelter. This country will be torn apart with those numbers all most people think is “oh, a bunch will get sick” and not realize how bad it will actually be.
That was actually for Carl R
No matter what, the election will go on, but it very well might be conducted 100% by mail. Yes, if 1/3 of the people get it, it will be ugly. That’s very similar to the Spanish flu, which sickened 28% of Americans, and killed .48% of them, and maybe a third is a bit high. I didn’t mean it to be a specific prediction, but rather just an indicator that a very high percentage of the US will be infected, since no one has any immunity at all, and it is very communicable. If this kills .48% of Americans today, that would be about 1.7million. Since I said 1m, even in my worst case scenario I have it only about half as bad as the Spanish flu.
Yes, I definitely hope it never gets that bad. I hope they can contain it sufficiently to push things out far enough for a vaccine. All people from both parties should want that. It’s not a partisan issue.
In the process of reading this, I did just realize something. The Spanish Flu was H1N1, and H1N1 hit again in 2009 under the name of the Swine flu. That was the only year the flu totally kicked my butt. That was the sickest I’ve ever been in my life. I had a very high fever for a week, then came down with pneumonia. Ever since then I’ve gotten a flu shot every year. That is also the year I think about when I think about the coronavirus, and I’m not looking forward to having it.
Let’s just hope the lack of the intermittent full stack immune system workout that the seasonal flue vaccine helps prevent, doesn’t leave Americans less prepared to ramp up and fight off a virus it has not been vaccinated against….. (I’ve been getting vaccinated since around the same time, but the practice isn’t entirely non controversial.)
This is why he is in no way fit to be president of anything. This will be his 7th bankruptcy.
Trump has always been a Bullshiter. In his private live he got out of problems by paying-off the hookers, by bullshitting the bankers or if that failed by declaring bankruptcy. Lets see ho he handles the first crises he can not BS his way out.
Don’t fall for it Mish. The Dems’ penchant for taking the worst possible interpretation leaves me correcting them again. I don’t hear what you heard, as what he said. He says lots of dumb things, but this is another politically motivated misinterpretation. Don’t believe me, here’s the AP:
NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) — President Donald Trump lashed out Friday at Democrats who have questioned his handling of the coronavirus threat, calling their criticism a new “hoax” intended to undermine his leadership.
Or, from The Guardian
Quote: Donald Trump attempted to link the coronavirus outbreak to Democratic immigration policies, labeling Democratic attacks on his handling of the crisis a “new hoax” in a rambling speech in South Carolina
Ahem. “labeling Democratic attacks on his HANDLING of the crisis a “new hoax””
Also, riddle me this: How can Trump simultaneously declare the virus a hoax and then link an outbreak of this supposedly nonexistent threat to the Dem’s immigration policies.
It’s pretty clear that ham-tongued DT tried to label this as yet another attempt to take him down with a very poor choice of words. But he is not calling the virus itself a hoax.
Yeah, that’s how I read it too. And it’s The Guardian, no friend of anyone right of Che.
The Guardian is another fake news outlet. What Trump really referred was the Democrats are going to use the Corona Virus as their new HOAX.
Cultists gonna cult.
Agree, he wasn’t referring to the actual virus outbreak being a hoax.. Just the Dems playing politics is the latest hoax.. They (Dems) never let a crisis go to waste..
How many people died from the flu today?
Lets keep track of both and see which is more deadly.
That’s just silly. Hardly anyone one dies from Ebola because there are always worldwide efforts to stop it ASAP. Will you prefer to spend time with some one who has ebola or the flu? Now think about all the alarms going of on this virus that should tell you the level of fear it creates on people who know about deadly epidemics.
Hmm, I don’t think anyone is quarantining the US or advising travel over influenza.
Which one is more ends up more deadly depends entirely on whether SAR-COV2 turns out to be seasonal, and on whether there is a vaccine in the fall. If it is seasonal, and there is a vaccine in the Fall, in the US it will leave perhaps 60,000 infections and 600 dead, which is small compared to the flu. If it isn’t seasonal, or if it returns in the fall before there is a vaccine, it could leave 100m infected, and 1-4m dead. That is why there is so much urgency on containment early (which extends the time you have to develop a vaccine), and on developing a vaccine. We all hope SARS-COV2 ends up being a minor blip, but it has the potential to be very bad.
58 to 1 right now.
Dunning K. Trump
One dead in Washington state