When the Votes are Counted, Biden Will Win
Biden just now: “I’m not here to declare that we’ve won, but I am here to report when the count is finished, we believe that we will be the winners.” #election2020 pic.twitter.com/DF81BgmJCD
— The Recount (@therecount) November 4, 2020
Most Likely Outcome
I am sticking with the map I posted early this morning.
Michigan and Wisconsin are in Biden’s column.
The AP has called AZ for Biden and that would seal the fate. Some question the AZ call.
If Arizona does flip, then Biden needs Georgia or Pennsylvania.
It would take an enormous parlay for Trump to flip this.
“Stop the Count”
look at all these fucking losers https://t.co/7apKHYy43u
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) November 4, 2020
Chaplain in Detroit on the “stop the count” protests:
“We’re not deterred … The Black vote in Detroit is higher than it’s ever been and we will determine the outcome — because we’ve gone from picking cotton to picking presidents.” #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/J4CLPf21yL
— The Recount (@therecount) November 4, 2020
Amazingingly, Trumpian fools today chant “Stop the Count“
If the vote counting stopped now, Biden would be the official winner.
What Trump supporters need is for the vote counting to stop in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania coupled with continued and favorable counting in Arizona despite the fact the state has been called for Biden.
Update on Pennsylvania
No surprise and Biden will likely win Georgia too. https://t.co/ysoCOWss5l
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) November 4, 2020
Trump is a Fraud and a Disgrace to the United States
Trump prematurely declared and now desperately needs a count in Arizona to go his way.
I repeat, Trump is a Fraud and a Disgrace to the United States
Mish
Definitely no cheating in Michigan:
the missing address is a twitter link to someone checking voting records. Born in 1902. Just voted in 2020.
And yet another bald-faced lie. Is that all you folks have? Made up fairy tales? The late Willam Bradley did not vote, however his sixty-one year old son William T. Bradley, who lives in his old family home, did, as he has every right to do. link to politifact.com
Many of these people were complaining about the suppression of free speech on social media just last week? Isn’t demanding someone’s vote not being counted the ultimate form of suppressing political free speech?
It’s simply impossible for Democrats to cheat.
Do you think it’s right that Republican observers have NOT been allowed to observe the counting of votes properly?
Michigan and Pennsylvania are like banana republic’s when it comes to Democrat controlled cities vote counting.
Minnesota and Wisconsin had 90%+ of registered voters voting and this has NEVER happened anywhere and it is highly suspect that this many would vote when other states are at 60-70%.
In my opinion Biden ballots are being stuffed in Minnesota and Wisconsin and these states should have FBI agents investigating the vote counting already.
Recounts must be made and these must not be simple recounts but voting verifications where voters are CONTACTED and asked whether they voted and in what way they voted to catch the stuffed ballots of people who did NOT vote but whose voter registrations were used by Democrats to stuff the ballots.
Mish
Trump was the best thing that happened to us…you’ll miss him big time.
I’ll miss him. But more so Xi and Putin. Made the US look like a joke. While he stroked his ego the rest of the world moved on. Every year he was President our new Chinese overlords and the Russian mafia looked less evil in comparison.
He didn’t do much for me, and I won’t miss him at all.
Looks like this will be closer in NV and GA than anywhere else.
Don’t want to rule out anything given this crazy year, but most the uncounted NV ballots are absentee from Clark County — bluest county in the state and bluest form of voting.
Nobody in Vegas is betting Trump closes his 7K gap in Nevada.
Re: GA… 99% counted now, Trump still has a 26K vote lead (0.5%).
AZ Trump supporters gathered tonight at the Maricopa Election Center and they chanted ….
wait for it ….
“Count the votes”
What’s up with MI numbers on their website? Shows Trump with a lead of 4.5%…
Looks stale.
Here is an archive of the page in case it “disappears”:
link to archive.is
As a result of a denial of service attack, posting is still turned off but comments are on.
You should be able to edit comments though.
Is this univerasl?
Who can edit comments?
The AZ Sharpie Issue Turned out to be more Trumpian bullshit as expected.
So you believe the claim by the officials that the machine manufacturer recommended sharpies/felt pens and that is why they were given out by officials and people were made to use them despite bleed through being an issue which led to lots (election day so mostly Trump supporters) being invalidated as said by witnesses when machines could NOT read these?
In their claims the officials even claimed use of felt pens is discouraged so they can not even keep their stories right when claiming also that the machine manufacturer recommended them and while officials gave out sharpies and made people use them even taking ball point pens away from people.
I hope every invalidated that has been invalidated because it was made on a felt pen/sharpie will indeed be counted like officials claimed saying they will “most likely” be counted even if invalidated by the machine.
I have serious doubts about that.
On the manual is the it says “Do NOT use a sharpie type pen because it will bleed through”:
And despite this officials were giving out sharpie pens and made people use them.
Trump will do anything including sacrifice the United States to protect his business “empire” from any investigation that will reveal his corruption and dishonesty.
By the way, the morons are spreading a rumor that using a sharpie pen will render the ballot unreadable. That’s ridiculous. If they’re so wrong about the pen think of what else they have wrong.
“
Later in the day, the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors hit back at “misinformation” around the voting process, including on the use of Sharpies, in a letter from Clint Hickman, the Republican chairman of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, and a Democratic supervisor, Steve Gallardo.
In the letter, the supervisors noted that Sharpies don’t invalidate ballots and that elections workers extensively tested their use.
“People who voted by mail could use Sharpies, or blue and black pens. Our Elections Department has been communicating this public for weeks,” the letter said.”
What poll are you using?
If this was to me – I was using AP data through Yahoo; but that matched the data from Fox News and was largely inline with CBS News (although CBS seemed to have an older set at the time).
best comment line on here: I don’t know the facts
Facts? Who cares about facts? Beliefs are what counts!
NV is now the whole shooting match. Other states are largely going for Trump – although Biden has outside chances in several. But the analysis in NV is closest and NV in Biden’s column gives him 270.
NV as of 11/4 – 17:20 — 75% counted
Biden – 588252
Trump – 580605
Jorgensen – 10852
A total of 1179982 votes counted with an estimated total vote of 1573309. For Trump to catch up and win by 1 vote (and discounting Jorgensen; sorry Mish), Trump would have to get 204311 votes out of the remaining 393327 – or around 52% of the remaining votes. This is quite doable, obviously. The only question is what is the make-up of the votes that are left – my suspicion is that they are from areas that Biden would normally lead and/or are early voting votes in which Biden is normally favored. I don’t know the facts on that last statement; so the best you can say right now is that NV looks extremely close.
They are mostly from Clark County (the southernmost part of the state, including Las Vegas).
Bluest area of the state.
Mish, I cannot edit my own replies for typos and I cannot post new threads.
Can you either fix this or explain what post I transgressed the rules so I can delete it?
I wanted to ask that we now accept that Biden is at 270 and has won no matter what else now may happen. That will mean looking forward to things like gridlock from a bunker mentality Moscow Mitch. Like no stacking of the supreme court so vast and towering far right change from SCOTUS.
I think there will be futile attempts on the part of Trump to reverse the outcome of the election, or barring that to hold a coup we are all invited to where he will not leave. And we should be discussing the military role in removing him from the White House come January 20, as well as what he will get up to in the lame duck period till then.
We need to discuss seriously the reaction of voters and the public given that we now know the outcome of the election.
And by the way, NV is saying now they will announce a winner tomorrow no matter what and not next Thursday as they have a legal right to do. So we will have an official win by Biden by dinner about 20 hours away.
Time to shift the focus away from an election that is over and what comes next.
Peters wins Senate Seat in Michigan
Flip to Democrats still in play
Double sad on this one.
CNBC Headline: Biden projected to win Michigan
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is projected to win the state of Michigan, leaving him just 17 Electoral College votes short of the 270 he needs to be elected to the White House, NBC News reported Wednesday.
Since most people in the know have projected AZ and NV that is all, 270 EC votes. And he can still win in PA and GA, but he does not need them at all. Trump has no chance to win.
All cheer Biden 46th President of the UNited States of America!
Hi Herkie, pardon me if I wait until I see a blue 270 on my TV!
Well I am watching the evening news on ABC and they have WI and MI blue, and AP called AZ, and all serious political watchers consider the AP as the gold standard in calling states. PBS uses their calls as official they are so good. Only republicans grasping at straws would say AZ is still pending. NV is a slightly different story because the supervisor of elections has said they will accept ballots for a week that were postmarked on or before election day which is the law there. Saying they will announce a winner next Thursday the 12th, but I am pretty sure that is a move designed to give Trump and his bots heart attacks and possibly self destructive rage.
ALL remaining votes in NV are trickling in from LV and Reno, because they are mailed one can assume they are predominently dem and especially when Clark and Washoe Counties are Biden strongholds. Counting them is not going to make Biden’s total go down only up. That is why so many other outlets already called NV for Biden.
There is also a better than 40% chance that Biden eeks out a win in GA, a 50/50 chance he gets PA, a small but not impossible chance in NC.
Trump is damnding vote counting stop where he is ahead and wants it to be counted or recounted where Biden is leading or won.
You know this is not just Trump acting like his usual asshole self, he just took a tinderbox and trew a match into it. And his supporters have to understand, please do understand if you support him, payback is going to be a real bitch. You do not or I should say they do not really believe they are going to do this treason and pay no price right?
It’s a BIG CLUB Herkie, and we ain’t in it. So says George Carlin.
I’ll believe prosecutions when I see them.
By the way, SCOTUS just tonight made a major ruling against gay people. Said that religious organizations had the right not to deal with them when it comes to adoptions.
You do not have to be a legalgenous to figure out that this discrimination is going to get drilled down on till gay paeople are once again without rights at all.
Supreme Court Hears Arguments Over Whether Religious Agencies Can Reject Gay Foster Parents
New Justice Amy Coney Barrett expresses concerns about wider implications of antidiscrimination policies.
JEBUS it did not take that bitch long to start smashing American rights did she?
This Cun* womanis so religious she made a deal with the devil (the orange one), you make sure I am reelected and I give you 40 years of ruling against liberals. She accepted and is already at it.
Now with the senate still in Moscow Mitch’s hands we are going to get so much more of this and gridlock. We cannot stack the court without the senate, and the senate can and will block all the house and president try to do.
Welcome to a president that has to rule via presidential signing orders just as the racist forced Obama to do. For those of you that think this is a good thing I have a book recomendation for you: https://www.amazon.com/Mein-Kampf/dp/0395925037/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=mein+kamphf&qid=1604544157&sr=8-2
https://www.amazon.com/Mein-Kampf/dp/0395925037/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=mein+kamphf&qid=1604544157&sr=8-2
I feel bad for Trump supporters. Seriously, you have done what you did, you are what you are, but the majority has spoken and your fuhrer is history. You are in for a really rough 16 years. I think it may be more than that, but you might have a shote of rule in 2036 if your fascist party makes real changes.
Biden says he wants unity, to heal the nation, but the majority wants that to start with Trump in prison.
NV is looking pretty dang close…
Z we will know tomorrow. The pesser by the supervisor of elections tonight said they will announce tomorrow. But the votes left to be counted are all from Biden precincts. It will be close but there is basically NIL hope Trump will make a comeback there. NV has been called for Biden by nearly all callers for good reason.
no matter biden is illegitimate and therefore we don’t have to follow anything he does
president harris approves this message
Fun things we have to look forward to:
Legal challenges
Court rulings
Appeals
2 mos of Trump verbal diarrhea
Cont’d annihilation of FedGov
Trump turkeywalk from WH
An alternate inauguration
Trump rallies for 4 years
Assassination attempts on Biden
Dramatic increase in hate crimes
A run on white hoods and robes
5-4 conservative USSC rulings
No prosecutions of Trumpsters
Don’t know what a turkey walk is but I know what a frog march is when cops/soldiers force someone in manacles at gunpoint to move.
It’s quite similar.
Say you’re in a bar and you start trouble. The bouncer comes in behind you, grabs your pants by the belt in your back and gives you an “atomic wedgie.” The bouncer then uses his mass and momentum to force you to walk forward on your tippy-toes toward the exit, whereupon you hit the pavement HARD.
The public spectacle, humiliation and pain are integral to the experience.
Turkey walk.
LOL thanks Mr. P
I am not a bar person nor s trouble maker, so I never heard of that, but your description shows your native intelligence. Here is a beer for you!
… and a sea of trumpling rage tears.
You left out some of the earlier steps.
Threats to the Electoral College voters, attempts to create 2 faithless electors…
Well I did write, “look forward to.”
If we’re gonna include the past it will take up the entire site.
I think Biden wins but in my estimation he does it with Nevada and doesn’t get Pa. Maybe he’ll get Georgia.
Biden wins PA by 100K.
A lot of people are saying I’m happy to be wrong
The thing is, AZ and NV, MI and WI are all called for Biden and that is 270 EC votes, so I am less than concerned about GA/NC/PA. Trump has come up short. He has no path to win, even if it is a week till NV reports a winner. They say they will take a full week to allow votes to arrive postmarked by close of polls yesterday, but well before that the Biden lead will be larger than the outstanding votes to be counted. The only complication is that NV sent ballots to every registered voter so nobody really knows how many might be left out there.
So Biden will sit back and conduct interviews for the transition while the Trump camp pays millions for lawyers to try to stop the inevitable. And he will fail because as I posted over and over there is a strong basic legal concept called the clean hands doctrine, or forfeiture by wrongdoing. Meaning Trump cannot go to any court anywhere and claim there is dem vote fraud and the counting has to stop when it was he and only he that actually tried to rig the election. If the votes are coming in slow or late it is because there is a proven scheme by him to delay the mail as a way to invalidate ballots that the post office basically impounded.
And a federal judge ORDERED the post office to take extraordinary measures to get those ballots delivered on time and the post office flipped the judge the bird, hundreds of thousands of ballots are now void because of the actions of the administration to rig the election, therefore they cannot go to court with dirty hands and expect to win. They forfeit by wrongdoing.
“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything…” – Josef Stalin, the hero of the left.
If Stalin were the “hero of the left” as you claim, you’d be dead already. Lighten up Francis.
Of course he was. Try to do a bit more reading on how many Western left leaning intellectuals (useful idiots) from Marxists and Communists to well-meaning Lefties were quick to defend Stalin’s regime whenever it was criticized. Stalin, these useful idiots claimed, was much misunderstood.
Oh, you mean people from 100 years ago who are dead now. Glad you’re taking this whole thing seriously, you had me worried.
Like the NYTimes’ Walter Duranty who won a Pulitzer Prize for his apologies for the Ukrainian holodomor famine of 1933-34. Yes, Duranty is a major player in 2020 politics.
“Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it.”
Hitler. Hero of the right.
Two “Stop the Count” videos added to my article
The volunteers who count the votes shouldn’t have to put up with that behaviour.
For info I can’t edit posts anymore.
Edit working again now thanks.
Wisconsin has massive voter fraud:
7 Milwaukee wards report MORE votes than there are registered VOTERS!
Put down the crack pipe and step away…
Russian trolls trying to foment trouble. You can’t believe everything you read on the internet or hear from our president for that matter. Check your sources.
My response was intended for FactsonJoe.
Oh pretty tell what happened?
Milwaukee City Wire article link does NOT post that has analyzed the votes cast vs registered voters and found 7 Milwaukee wards to have MORE votes than registered voters.
The Street spam filter is totally broken or intentionally set up in a way so that links are immediately removed when linking to certain news sites.
Your “facts” get more and more disreputable. Still, Wisconsin is one of many states that allows you to register and vote at a voting center up until 11:30 on election day. It is possible to have more votes than there were registered voters prior to the election, however.
Wisconsin (WAOW) — The Wisconsin Elections Commission is dispelling rumors circulating on Facebook about voter fraud.
A post claims more people cast ballots than were registered to vote in Wisconsin. However, that is not true.
The post used data from two years ago.
In total, just over 89 percent of Wisconsin’s 3.68 million registered voters cast a ballot in the November 2020 election.
According to election results, just under 3.3 million voters cast their ballots.
Hate to say it but we are likely to see every dirty trick known to man in an attempt to convince Americans that the Democrats stole the election. The seeds of this were sown even before the day of the election.
Now let’s ask the following question? Who would the Russians prefer as the next President of the United States. Then ask yourself – Are the Russians above trying to sow the seeds of discord or cause a lack of confidence in our voting process? Hmmmm.
Putin bought Joe Biden already when he was VP.
Moscow Mayor’s wife sent Hunter Biden 3.5 million dollar wire transfer and Moscow Mayor and her wife are part of Putin’s elite.
Just your posts. Because they were spam worthy.
Go jump off a bridge you POS
Now that is some witty repartee there..Real class.
I’m just speaking the language of Trump supporters. Are you one? Then you should join him. Anyone that supports this criminal is either retarded or an enemy of this country.
No, I’m not a Trump supporter. Do you even read the comments here before you shoot from the hip? If you read many you’d know better than that.
Assuming that you’re neither a paid nor organic troll, I’m curious what’s required to change your view on anything you’ve clearly invested so much of your sense of self in.
BTW, the owners of your preciously objective Milwaukee City Wire.
Each site has an identical “About Us” page, explaining the site is “one of hundreds” being launched nationwide to allegedly “fill the void in local communities,” due to the steady decline of local reporting. “Our approach,” the page continues, “is to provide objective, data-driven information without personal or political bias. We let the facts speak for themselves.”
Just this past week, additional statewide networks of these websites have sprung up in Montana and Iowa.
The websites were all published by Locality Labs, LLC on behalf of their client, the Metric Media Foundation, according to a Locality Labs employee who wished to remain anonymous. Locality Labs already operates its own networks of similar websites in Maryland and Florida.
*** The Metric Media Foundation, a non-profit, 501(c)(3) organization registered in Missouri earlier this year, only lists a Kansas City-based attorney on its filings, though an online biography lists Bradley Cameron as its CEO. *** The biography describes Cameron as being a strategist “presently retained by national conservative leaders to direct responses to government targeting of their operations and initiatives.”
This has all been debunked. You are recycling tired old stories.
So typical, numbers numbers look. Too hard to check it out. And the desperation to ignore stuff like that an organised mass fraud would just overlook that it will be published and obvious. No-one gets away with that except Drumpf
That is a bald-faced lie, as you doubtless know. There were, in 2020, several hundred thousand more registered voters in the State of Wisconsin than there were ballots cast. This is a matter of public record.
Lets see if this one posts lol
Not sure what you are saying but spam filter catching you for some reason.
I undeleted the spam filter a few times
Couldn’t post. Was just testing to see if I could 🙂
AZ has 605K outstanding votes from election day where he has been doing well. Trump needs slightly less than 50% of the remaining votes to take the state. Nevada is up for Biden, but by only 7.8K with most of the rural counties still reporting. I will say, the population isn’t very big, but neither is the Nevada lead. Trump is currently up on Georgia, NC and Pennsylvania. Its plausible for Trump to win GA, NC and Penn, and still win one of Arizona and Nevada
math is hard isn’t it? and statistics is arguably harder. it’s ok, maybe some day you’ll get it. ot maybe not but you can always leave it to the ones who do get it.
Not sure I understand your point. Biden isn’t there yet, and everything above is currently true. Whats the issue
I think the problem with your analysis is that Trump will need more than 50% of what’s left to win. I’m not sure exactly when you pulled your numbers, but I remember Biden being ahead here for some time. In any case, the current analysis would be:
11/4 – 16:50 — 84% counted
Biden: 1,413,891
Trump: 1,321,074
Jorgensen: 37,549
That’s a total of 2772514 with a vote difference between Biden and Trump of 92817 votes. According to the 84% counted metric, there are a total of 598098 votes left. To make up the current difference and pull 1 vote ahead, Trump would need to get 356866 votes out of what is left which is 67.5% of that remaining vote. This is not impossible, but it is improbable based on what we know about the votes that are left (which are expected to favor Biden in the first place, let alone be almost 70% toward Trump).
Sorry I didn’t identify the state for that analysis – that was for AZ.
My mistake, I should have said “slightly more”. Simply for example purposes. Using round numbers. There is about 90K diff between both candidates and about 600K votes remaining. I assume the 84% is correct, but who really knows. Politico was different than CNN, which is different from Fox. Trump needs to simply make up 90,001. At 50/50, still a 90k difference, with 2 candidates getting 300K votes a piece. If Trump gets 58% of the remaining vote and Biden gets 42%, the difference would put Trump over. Its about 96K. My assumption is a 2 man race. To your point, I agree, its difficult, but the overall point is that the State is still in play, and that the rest of the states are also in play, with Trump leading the rest. Its not impossible.
They know how many early ballots are for each party. Most of the 600,000 uncounted ballots are from Maricopa County which has voted 51.8 Biden to 46.8% Trump. It’s unlikely that the remaining early ballots are going to shift to heavily Republican.
If that holds up, then AZ its finished and its Bidens, but there seems to be some optimism on getting a higher % for the remaining ballots. I have no idea why
fwiw, this evening’s numbers (state wide,) are:
Biden (D) 1,444,213 50.7%
Trump Donald Trump (R) 1,365,040 47.9%
Jo Jorgensen (LB) 38,798 1.4%
Biden is 79,173 ahead so somewhat narrower than before.
Then I would think its still in play. Very tight
No job is done till the paper work is done and the fat lady sings.
AZ has 605K outstanding votes from election day where he has been doing well. Trump needs slightly less than 50% of the remaining votes to take the state. Nevada is up for Biden, but by only 7.8K with most of the rural counties still reporting. I will say, the population isn’t very big, but neither is the Nevada lead. Trump is currently up on Georgia, NC and Pennsylvania. Its plausible for Trump to win GA, NC and Penn, and still win one of Arizona and Nevada
Mish, your map seems a bit optimistic. I’ll settle for NV and MI at this point. 270 electoral college votes and we can take out Trump with the trash!
You are correct in your assessment. AZ has 605K outstanding votes from election day where he has been doing well. Trump needs slightly less than 50% of the remaining votes to take the state. Nevada is up for Biden, but by only 7.8K with most of the rural counties still reporting. I will say, the population isn’t very big, but neither is the Nevada lead. Trump is currently up on Georgia, NC and Pennsylvania. Its plausible for Trump to win GA, NC and Penn, and still win one of Arizona and Nevada
I think AZ is out of reach for Trump. Biden is leading by 100K votes and most of the remaining ballots are in Maricopa and Pima county where Biden has been doing best.
You might be right about that. Might be out of reach, but its still in play, as is Nevada. I think the key for both candidates is there
The big losers are the pollsters. You would have thought that they would have learned something in four years but they didn’t. Will incompetence still pay or will a thorough cleaning happen? My bet is on further incompetence.
It is not incompetence. It is that polling has become increasingly difficult. First, how do you get a random, unbiased sample when only a minority of people will answer the phone? How do you get accurate results when people won’t answer your questions honestly?
And only older people still have landlines which make up the majority of polled phone numbers.
But I had to have two sections of statistics for my Finance degree, even stats majors only needed one for a BS diploma.
I can tell you right now that stats and polling is not theory or opinion, it is pure math and science. And it is incredibly accurate, I say if you think the metrics are wrong time after time you are wrong.
If polling is wrong in the last two or three elections all of the sudden, because they do not agree with the final results you need to ask if the science was badly wrong, or if the results they have predicted were changed, manipulated.
Herkie, I also have a Finance degree, but my undergraduate major was in Operations Research, so I took 2 years of Statistics, and some Stochastic Processes on top of that. I am well familiar with the match and science. Yet, before you can do the math you have to have good data. You have two distinct problems.
The first is selection bias. Regardless of how you select people, you are going to have some bias built in. On phone polls, as you point out, there is a bias towards older people, but you could adjust for that. What you can’t adjust for is that the kinds of people who answer unknown numbers are going to be different than the kind who don’t. There are also selection biases from the people who say they won’t answer to those who will answer.
Even if you somehow managed to get an accurate sample, how do you adjust for people who lie? That used to be rare, but these days it is much more common. My theory is that Rasmussen has deviated from other pollsters because Trumpophiles, for whatever reason, trust them, and give them more honest answers.
Polls used to be more accurate because it was easier to get a representative sample, and because people told the truth. If it was just a matter of some pollsters being incompetent, as the OP suggests, it would be one or two polls that were way off, but it’s not. It’s the whole industry, and that tells you that you have systematic problems.
before you can do the math you have to have good data
Yes that is the key. Election data from polling I doubt is really good enough nw to justify the MOE of 3.5 or 4%, if industry had to determine such things as warranties or death statistics in products like car tires they would not be happy with such error. But we can agree no statistical forecast can be error free entirely. Given the size and diversity of the United States electorate I think we are getting the best we ever will, unless they can come up with an AI that has the ability to do more subjective stats.
They weren’t that bad last time, just missed in a few states. Missed in a lot more this time. Odd, would think the likely result would have been a bias to oversample the Trump demographic
What about Kanye, you ask?
…while he may have come nowhere close to winning and only appeared on ballots in 12 states this time around, West did still managed to rake in almost 60,000 votes, according to preliminary tallies from the Associated Press. The rapper seems to have largely charmed Tennessee residents who gave him the most votes of any state where he was on the ballot, with 10,188. He also did relatively well in Minnesota with 6,796 votes; Kentucky gave him 6,259 votes; Oklahoma came in with 5,587; and Louisiana with 4,837.
That is interesting. There is no accounting for tastes. What is his demographic? Evangelical hip-hop aficionados?
Imagine if Kanye had put all his energy into Maine and Nebraska and got the EC vote from each state’s 2nd Congressional district…
He could have made the count Biden 269, Trump 267 and West 2, throwing it to the House delegations to decide.
Now that would have been a climactic finish to 2020.
Ahhhh, what a pleasant dream–4 years without rampant, noisy, dumb-assery at the top.
I still have my champagne. A nice bottle of Taittinger La Francais Brut……if this doesn’t get settled by tomorrow I’ma drink it anyway.
Today it’s like everyone in the entire country is waiting for the lab results for an STD test.
Actually, it is clear the US has a disease. Some of us hoped Trump was a fluke. Now it’s clear it was no fluke. He is actually what nearly half of the country wants. And they are not mostly “hold your nose and vote” people. Most of them love Trump and what he stands for. Appalling .
Dude…what a buzzkill. But you’re right.
Why does it hurt when I pee?
Trump needs GA, NC, PA plus AZ
You mean AK ? He is ahead in all of those, that would bring in Nevada (and Michigan or wherever else is challenged)
No I mean Arizona
Trump needs the AZ declaration for Biden to be wrong plus all the other things I noted
WI and MI are settled issues
Look at the map.
Put WI and MI safely in Biden’s hands 100% count in
If AZ and NV hold then GA, PA, NC are irrelevant
Even if Trump can win both AZ and NV, Biden still wins with any of GA, PA, NC
Extreme long shot for Trump but possible
It really can come down to that one EV flip in Nebraska
Or electors not honoring their commitment
Like urtau says… I’m approaching this from an outside viewpoint only. The calculation I look at is that Trump wins PA NC GA AK (though Herkie might be right on AK ?) . Therefore NV becomes decisive for both. I’m looking at the Fox scoreboard and NV is near equal at present. I count AZ as lost, but MI challenged. Just a different way of viewing it.
PA still a lot of votes left (12%) but the gap is wide in favour of Trump (4%)
GA is close (1%) gap but few votes left to count (3%) which would have to go against the trend and be two thirds roughly against Trump.
NC is closer but still over 1% difference and 6% of votes to count, so would have to be a largish swing in those to change the outcome.
AK Trump has a very large lead but only 50% counted. Even if he lost there it would still come down to NV.
NV 8000 votes difference only with a few hundred thousand to count, so apart from legal contest, NV looks pivotal to me.
The votes waited on in GA are from counties that are showing at least 65% to Biden. Biden win in GA looks likely 🙂
No, and sort of, people have been counting Alaska for Trump but it is not showing up in his EC count just as NV, AZ, and MI are not showing up in Biden’s count. But nearly all who call states as having gone to one or the other candidate have already called AZ and NV for Biden, the only exception I have seen is the AP and 270 to win.
They do know that Biden’s lead, especially in AZ will not fall to Trump, but they are not going to call too soon in part for ratings.
But, AZ has very few votes left to count and those are all from Biden heavy Maricopa where he hs so far more than an 8% lead. That is not going to change the overall win even if it did go heavier for Trump towards the end.
One of the real problems is they do not want to call NV because the state supervisor of elections said they would be counting through next Wednesday and announce their total on Thursday the 12th, that guy must hate Trump’s guts LOL. They are allowed by NV law to count ballots postmarked by election day for up to a week. Probably a hold over from the time when they used horses to carry votes to Carson City from that huge state. Pre Telegraph.
Also, the state of NV this election sent a ballot to every single registered voter, so they do not know how many are out there really, take me for example, I was an active voter in Las Vegas, voted in 2018 there. I was possibly mailed a ballot though I no longer live there. If someone got that they would likely just toss it in the garbage. If someone tried to vote it they would see that I am no longer a registered voter there, whoever tried to vote it would be in huge trouble. But most likely it would never get counted because they would have zero idea of what my signature looks like.
So, with WI, NV, AZ, all of which have been called for Biden (even if not universally by everyone for whatever reasons) Biden is at 254 EC votes. He needs 16 more to be president. And low and behold MI has 16, and he is ahead there and his lead will grow because the remaining ballots to be counted are from very Dem HEAVY Wayne and contiguous black heavy metro Detroit.
No serious experienced political watcher at this point thinks Trump has any chance. He cannot get AZ, and all the remaining states where Biden does not lead will not be enough to put him over the top. He has lost.
If you want to talk about some possible anomolies that perhaps point to Trump cheating let’s discuss why the total popular vote in no way jibes with the predicted heavy turnouts projected.
It is true that about 10 or 11 million more people voted in 2020 than 2016, but the population increases by 3 million per year, in that four years there should be 12 million more voters now than then. So it should have increased as much as it did by reaon of population alone, even though we were told in state after state we smashed 2016 turnout totals. How can you have population rising by 12 million AND vastly higher turn out of eligible voters but only be 10-11 million more votes? Where did another 10 million or so votes go?
USPS Misdelivered to some APO military base on a rock off the Greenland coast perhaps?
Seems like you’re using a different starting point than I’m seeing. With Biden at 253, NC or GA by themselves don’t get him there.
There’s several combos that work for Trump, though none very likely at this point.
Basically he needs PA plus any 3 of AZ, NV, NC, GA
Trump can get to 270 with GA, NC, PA and NV because AK he will get.
are there any people really calling for the count to stop? seeing talk of fraud but not this.
Well Trump himself in PA and NC.
But yes, someone posted a video
I believe he wants counting to STOP until they can have observers actually OBSERVE the vote counting.
In Philly Republican observers were kept so far away they could not see anything.
POST any shred of credible reference material and we might have something to talk about. As it is your post is nothing but a steming pile of Trump talking points blah blah vote fraud blah blah, when there is yet to be ANY evidence of voter fraud. The only one making a mockery of our democracy around the worl like he claims is him. If he had any dignity or concern for this republic he would have graciously conceeded by now. Then start packing and getting some orange jump suits tailored because old fat ass’s next address is Sing Sing.
When will we get the edit function back Mish?
Uh-Huh. Sure.
I believe you and wish to subscribe to your newsletter…
Wow, wrong again! That’s like 10 for 10.
Search for Detroit and you will see a lot of videos with tRumpites calling for stop counting.
Why suppress the vote, when you can suppress the counting? A lesson straight from Stalin.
DETROIT—After both Democrats and Republicans sent their allotted 134 “poll challengers” into a vote-counting site here on Wednesday, election officials barred additional outside challengers from entering.
The cap on poll watchers was within state rules. But consistent with surging GOP panic that continued counting might hand Democratic challenger Joe Biden the presidency, a mob-like crowd of Republicans cried foul, chanting “stop the vote” and “let us in” outside the building where critical mail-in ballots were still being counted.
They did the same thing in Florida in 2000, even resorted to assault and battery. It did not stop the counting. And when the state supreme court ordered the count to continue it was the republicans that made an emergency appeal to the SCOTUS. In that ruling which has tarnished their reputation for all time they ruled in favor of stopping the count and awarding the win to Bush. Their reasoning though is not relevent to this case, they said that in order to meet the December deadline to report the totals to the Electoral College so those electors could vote the counting had to stop.
Even then the partisan party line vote and justification for stopping the count was as bogus as any the court ever issued. The December meeting of the electoral college to vote for a winner could have been postponed as far out as January 2. That is because the new congress is not sworn in till January 3. And they are the ones that count the EC vote and announce who was elected. So the EC could wait right up till the day before the new congress is sworn in under such circumstances.
No matter, this time the SCOTUS has an even bigger fascist partisan majority but they are certainly not going to take Trump’s case before the whole vote has had a chance to be counted. They know for a fact that if they award another fraudulent “win” to another republican, in spide of the democrat’s popular vote win, and an EC win if the votes are counted, along partisan lines, that would be one of the last decisions the SCOTUS ever hands down, because it would be a death sentence for the Untied States of America. This nation will burn to the ground.
To be fair in 2000 in FL they were down to trying to infer voter intent from impressions (but not clean holes,) left on the ballots from the styli because the poll workers didn’t clean the paper particles from the grooves in the frames that held the ballots when the voter voted. Like when your hole punch fills up with paper punches and won’t cleanly punch the hole.
Yes arguments can be made on both side AZ. I was a registered voter in Leon County (Tallahassee) in 2000 but had a couple job offers in New York that August. It was too late to meet the 90 day residency rule back then so I had to ask for a absentee ballot. A week before the election I had not got it so I called the registrar’s office and they said they sent it more than a week ago but they would send me another. It arrived the day AFTER the election when it had zero value. Could not be voted. It is the only election I did not vote in and not by my own fault. Bush won by 536 votes. Out of all the millions cast. Every vote COUNTS! And second lesson I suppose is the USPS has been rigging elections for a long time. This is just the first year they got caught because Trump made it so obvious. 0