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Very Close German Election, Who Will Govern?

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9 comments on Very Close German Election, Who Will Govern?

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Note: This is a an Live Blog updated with Addendums at the bottom and the current state of affairs in the lead chart. 

I will remove or add discussion where applicable.

The result at the top shows the most recent projections.

The results above are not final but no single party is close to a majority.

Please note mail-in votes are not yet counted.

5% is the threshold for participation with additional constituencies twists, so the outcome of 40 Die Linke (radical left seats) distributed elsewhere might ultimately tip the balance one way or another. 

Note: Die Linke is Confirmed In 

Die Linke Won 3 seats outright. That means it does not have to meet the 5% threshold.

5% of the national vote or 3 constituencies outright would get Die Linke about 40 seats. 

Storbeck is the Frankfurt Correspondent for the Financial Times.

AfD Very Strong in East Germany

CDU/CSU collapsed in East Germany. 

That was an exit poll but CDU/CSU was likely hammered.

Angling for a Jamaica Coalition

That is not reflective of the seat distribution at the top but it is representative of the coalition difficulties ahead. 

If CDU/CSU is not the leading party I rather doubt it will be in the next government and it may not be in the next government anyway.

It comes down to coalitions and who does or does not get along with the other parties.

Deciphering the Color Code

I discussed that yesterday in Chancellor Merkel Long Overstayed Her Welcome But What About a Replacement?

Please consider Deciphering the Color Code

  1. The center-right Christian Democrat CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU are symbolized by the color black. The center-left Social Democrat SPD is red, as is the socialist Left Party. The neoliberal Free Democrats’ (FDP) color is yellow. And the Greens are self-explanatory. German media often refer to color combinations and national flags, using them as shorthand for political coalitions.
  2. Black, Red, Green – the Kenya coalition – A coalition of center-right Christian Democrats (black) and center-left Social Democrats (red) plus the Green Party would secure a comfortable majority.
  3. Black, Yellow and Green – the Jamaica coalition – The center-right Christian Democrats have often teamed up with the much smaller pro-free market Free Democrats (FDP) at the state and the national level over the years. Taking in the Greens to form a three-way coalition would be an option attractive to many in the CDU. But the Greens and the FDP do not make easy bedfellows, and a similar attempt failed after the last election in 2017.
  4. Black, Red, Yellow – the Germany coalition – The center-right CDU and the center-left SPD plus the business-focused FDP. This combination would easily clear the 50% threshold in parliament, and would be the preferred option for business leaders and high-income earners. But if the SPD takes the lead we’d see red, black, yellow – a less conservative option.
  5. Red, Red, Green – The Social Democrats teaming up with the Greens and the Left Party is a specter the conservatives like to raise whenever they perform badly in the polls. But the SPD and Left Party have a difficult history. And the Left’s extreme foreign policy positions would likely hamper negotiations.
  6. Red, Yellow, Green – a ‘traffic light’ coalition – The free-market-oriented liberal FDP has in the past generally ruled out federal coalitions sandwiched between the Social Democrats and the Greens. But this year, the FDP has not ruled out any options. Germany’s traditional kingmaker party may above all be keen to return to power – no matter in which color combination.
  7. Black and red, red and black – the ‘grand coalition’ – A “grand coalition” of CDU and SPD, the “big tent parties,” has been in power for the past eight years with the conservatives taking the lead. If the election results allow it, this combination may continue in government … with the stronger party naming the chancellor.

Note that none of the listed options include AfD even though politically speaking its policies would make for better alliances.

However, AfD is Eurosceptic and many consider it to be tied to Nazis. 

Red, Red, Green Falls Short

And as noted above it is unclear if Die Linke gets 40 seats or is essentially excluded except for outright wins (1-2). 

There is a huge difference if it wins 3 outright vs 2 if it fails to hit the 5% threshold.

When Will We Know?

This coalition building may take a long time. What happens may come down to mail-in votes and whether Die Linke meets thresholds.

Live Blog

I will update this as results and information comes in.

Die Linke is Confirmed In

Die Linke Won 3 seats outright. That means it does not have to meet the 5% threshold.

That supports my idea that CDU/CSU will be ousted from any coalition.

All I Want For Christmas

Die Linke in complicates the coalition building.

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Mike Shedlock

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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
AfD is Eurosceptic and many consider it to be tied to Nazis
AfD is Eurosceptic and the MSM propagates Nazi narratives about them.
The MSM propagates Nazi narrative about all populist parties and everybody acts as if this part of the electorate should be flushed away.
Exactly the same narrative that in the US has lead to narratives about domestic terrorists cultured by white supremacist racist Trump.
[Yes I know Trump is an incorrigible willfully ignorant moron, but he is only a ‘clandestine’ racist and Nazi.]
The grievances of a significant part of the population will not go away by ignoring or criminalizing them; social polarization will continue to build.
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anoop
anoop
2 years ago
the governing isn’t done by the government.  the government is just the messenger and executor of the instructions.
so this post isn’t about who will govern.  that actually doesn’t change regardless of who is in power.
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oee
oee
2 years ago
The center left- SPD with the Greens and the FDP so the NYT is happy. they are going to claim that Germans voted for moderation. 
Also, the Die Linke will have seats in the Bundestag much to your disappointment Mr. Shedlock. I have one question for you. Where are the driverless trucks that was going to create mass unemployment for Truckers? i hear the UK needs 100000 Truckers. I hear Boris will ask 5000 foreign truckers to help him. 
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Bronco
Bronco
2 years ago
“Who Will Govern?”
…
Please.
The same … as ALWAYS.  The Elites.
In Developed countries it is The Haves vs The Have Nots.  
Different Parties just provide the needed  distraction for the Masses.
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whirlaway
whirlaway
2 years ago
I remember the author gloating recently over how the Green Party has “imploded”.  Well, looks like they are going to double their number of seats in the next Parliament.   If that is “imploding”, I would say that every political party in the world will have “imploding” as its main goal!  LOL
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Kenya…..Union is in it, but Scholz is the next Merkel. That’s my guess and I’m stickin’ to it.
I wonder if anyone has a thought on why the AfT is so strong in East Germany. Maybe they miss Stalin?
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Maybe some of the population has learned the hard lesson that getting information is hard work: you have to go looking for it. Regime change doesn’t change that fact. What comes on a silver plate is most likely crudely or shrewedly packaged propaganda.
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oee
oee
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
They do not. They miss the stability of a job, pension, and free housing.  Khol f**ck them with the high exchange rate, and West German companies bought East German companies on the cheap. It devastated those companies and made a desert of East Germany. 
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Reply to  oee
Thank you for your reply. 
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