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Very Close German Election, Who Will Govern?

Following the German election it is still very much unclear who will form a coalition government.
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SPD Lead Widens Significantly - Die Linke IN Despite 5% Threshold

Note: This is a an Live Blog updated with Addendums at the bottom and the current state of affairs in the lead chart. 

I will remove or add discussion where applicable.

The result at the top shows the most recent projections.

The results above are not final but no single party is close to a majority.

Please note mail-in votes are not yet counted.

5% is the threshold for participation with additional constituencies twists, so the outcome of 40 Die Linke (radical left seats) distributed elsewhere might ultimately tip the balance one way or another. 

Note: Die Linke is Confirmed In 

Die Linke Won 3 seats outright. That means it does not have to meet the 5% threshold.

5% of the national vote or 3 constituencies outright would get Die Linke about 40 seats. 

Storbeck is the Frankfurt Correspondent for the Financial Times.

AfD Very Strong in East Germany

CDU/CSU collapsed in East Germany. 

That was an exit poll but CDU/CSU was likely hammered.

Angling for a Jamaica Coalition

That is not reflective of the seat distribution at the top but it is representative of the coalition difficulties ahead. 

If CDU/CSU is not the leading party I rather doubt it will be in the next government and it may not be in the next government anyway.

It comes down to coalitions and who does or does not get along with the other parties.

Deciphering the Color Code

I discussed that yesterday in Chancellor Merkel Long Overstayed Her Welcome But What About a Replacement?

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Please consider Deciphering the Color Code

  1. The center-right Christian Democrat CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU are symbolized by the color black. The center-left Social Democrat SPD is red, as is the socialist Left Party. The neoliberal Free Democrats' (FDP) color is yellow. And the Greens are self-explanatory. German media often refer to color combinations and national flags, using them as shorthand for political coalitions.
  2. Black, Red, Green - the Kenya coalition - A coalition of center-right Christian Democrats (black) and center-left Social Democrats (red) plus the Green Party would secure a comfortable majority.
  3. Black, Yellow and Green - the Jamaica coalition - The center-right Christian Democrats have often teamed up with the much smaller pro-free market Free Democrats (FDP) at the state and the national level over the years. Taking in the Greens to form a three-way coalition would be an option attractive to many in the CDU. But the Greens and the FDP do not make easy bedfellows, and a similar attempt failed after the last election in 2017.
  4. Black, Red, Yellow - the Germany coalition - The center-right CDU and the center-left SPD plus the business-focused FDP. This combination would easily clear the 50% threshold in parliament, and would be the preferred option for business leaders and high-income earners. But if the SPD takes the lead we'd see red, black, yellow - a less conservative option.
  5. Red, Red, Green - The Social Democrats teaming up with the Greens and the Left Party is a specter the conservatives like to raise whenever they perform badly in the polls. But the SPD and Left Party have a difficult history. And the Left's extreme foreign policy positions would likely hamper negotiations.
  6. Red, Yellow, Green - a 'traffic light' coalition - The free-market-oriented liberal FDP has in the past generally ruled out federal coalitions sandwiched between the Social Democrats and the Greens. But this year, the FDP has not ruled out any options. Germany's traditional kingmaker party may above all be keen to return to power - no matter in which color combination.
  7. Black and red, red and black - the 'grand coalition' - A "grand coalition" of CDU and SPD, the "big tent parties," has been in power for the past eight years with the conservatives taking the lead. If the election results allow it, this combination may continue in government ... with the stronger party naming the chancellor.

Note that none of the listed options include AfD even though politically speaking its policies would make for better alliances.

However, AfD is Eurosceptic and many consider it to be tied to Nazis. 

Red, Red, Green Falls Short

And as noted above it is unclear if Die Linke gets 40 seats or is essentially excluded except for outright wins (1-2). 

There is a huge difference if it wins 3 outright vs 2 if it fails to hit the 5% threshold.

When Will We Know?

This coalition building may take a long time. What happens may come down to mail-in votes and whether Die Linke meets thresholds.

Live Blog

I will update this as results and information comes in.

Die Linke is Confirmed In

Die Linke Won 3 seats outright. That means it does not have to meet the 5% threshold.

That supports my idea that CDU/CSU will be ousted from any coalition.

All I Want For Christmas

Die Linke in complicates the coalition building.

Thanks for Tuning In

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