Quinnipiac University Poll

I created the above spreadsheets from a Quinnipiac University Poll released September 2. 

On the heels of back-to-back political party conventions and a climate of growing unrest in the country, likely voters support former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump 52 - 42 percent in a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This is the first survey of likely voters in the 2020 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll, and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters. 

The college education category is explicitly white-only.

By Political Party

Democrats go to Biden 93 - 6 percent, Republicans go to Trump 90 - 8 percent, and independents back Biden 50 - 40 percent.

Trump's Strong Points

  1. Whites in general but especially those with no 4-year college degree
  2. Those aged 50-64 late in their working careers but not yet retired. 

Biden's Strong Points

  1. Women
  2. College educated
  3. Blacks
  4. Hispanics
  5. Age groups 18-34, 35-49, and 65+

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By sex, males are essentially a toss-up. 

Add it up and Trump appeals to non-college education blue-class, white workers nearing retirement but not yet retired.

Biden appeals to everyone else.

Undecideds

Undecideds total at most 4%.

Trump needs to make up ground, and he has, by a bit, but further gains will be a struggle given most minds are made up.

Three Caveats

  1. This is a national poll. The election will be determined in the battleground states.
  2. There is still time for a Trump surge or a Biden blunder but time is more on Biden's side now.
  3. One has to believe the poll. Quinnipiac University is rated B+ by FiveThirtyEight.

For further discussion, please see Election Update: Is Trump Closing the Gap?

Mish

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