Quinnipiac University Poll
I created the above spreadsheets from a Quinnipiac University Poll released September 2.
On the heels of back-to-back political party conventions and a climate of growing unrest in the country, likely voters support former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump 52 – 42 percent in a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This is the first survey of likely voters in the 2020 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll, and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters.
The college education category is explicitly white-only.
By Political Party
Democrats go to Biden 93 – 6 percent, Republicans go to Trump 90 – 8 percent, and independents back Biden 50 – 40 percent.
Trump’s Strong Points
- Whites in general but especially those with no 4-year college degree
- Those aged 50-64 late in their working careers but not yet retired.
Biden’s Strong Points
- Women
- College educated
- Blacks
- Hispanics
- Age groups 18-34, 35-49, and 65+
By sex, males are essentially a toss-up.
Add it up and Trump appeals to non-college education blue-class, white workers nearing retirement but not yet retired.
Biden appeals to everyone else.
Undecideds
Undecideds total at most 4%.
Trump needs to make up ground, and he has, by a bit, but further gains will be a struggle given most minds are made up.
Three Caveats
- This is a national poll. The election will be determined in the battleground states.
- There is still time for a Trump surge or a Biden blunder but time is more on Biden’s side now.
- One has to believe the poll. Quinnipiac University is rated B+ by FiveThirtyEight.
For further discussion, please see Election Update: Is Trump Closing the Gap?
Mish
Post convention seen this morning at The Daily Shot Editor:
Joe Biden’s brain is cottage cheese, if he can avoid a debate he should be ok
Yes and yet is still so much better than what is left of the mind of the evil traitor Trump who kisses Putin ass and demands that people commit felonies like voting twice. Give me cottage cheese any day of the week over the evil prick we now have.
If people keep voting for “the Republican” or “the Democrat”, those are the only two choices they will be have, and neither will be good. Only when voters consider Greens and Libertarians as candidates will this ugly 2-headed monster start listening to the people again.
schools staying closed, riots every time police kill a suspect, 4 debates… a scotus demise could be the october surprise.
until the absentee ballots are mailed, this is a wide open race.
Polls are just guesses and the so called science behind them are bogus. For a good explanation “Radical Uncertainty” by John Kay and Mervyn King is a must read.
Does a mouse know it’s about to eat the cheese off a trap?
If people stop for a second and understand Trump is not just some compulsive crazy but a man with a team of very very smart people advising and brainstorming his path forward, they would start to see the things he is doing are calculated.
The vote twice comments were a stroke of genius. How else to turn the left on mail in voting than to tell you party to vote twice. He slammed the brakes on that push with a quickness.
Trump has gotten more people engaged in the direction of our country than ever before. Right or wrong the true winners are the people that are looking harder at the government.
Too much imagination on how Trump can steal election. He is a just a barking dog, doesn’t bite.
Seems deep down there’s an appeal to white working class males who fear being bypassed in today’s society and somehow view Trump as returning them to a world where they think they mattered more. It’s a false view of the world and not attainable by voting for him. They get upset when the nba cancels their sporting events due to a BLM protest and can’t accept their is in invisible virus coming after them. They think their paychecks would be bigger if we didn’t have to share the world with China or Mexico
One must realize that cohort makes up the majority of our tradesmen. In my state for example the average plumber is 60 years old. The average electrician is 57.
I expect there to me a huge flip between white collar and (service) blue collar is the coming years.
Are accountants or electricians more important?
Impotant? depends what you need done? there’s something more at play than the occupation. there’s no reason why an accountant and a plumber should vote differently unless its a union issue
The choices suck.
On the one hand you have an incumbent who clearly suffers from a pathological personality disorder….a populist who stirs up religious people and white working class people who are turned off by Democrat’s narrative, which is all about identity politics.
Not all Trump voters are poor or working class. Many Republicans still see him as a useful idiot…the kind who stacked his cabinet with Charlie Koch’s handpicked choices….and gave us five Catholics on the Supreme Court and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State.
But all that reality goes right over the heads of the Trump base. They are voting for a guy who is busy making America great. He must be, because he says so all the time, and they love him for his verbal brawling style and his willingness to fling mud at people they hate already.
On the other hand you have a Clinton approved, DNC approved retread whose greatest draw is that he served in the Obama administration…and therefore black people find him acceptable.
The long term consequences of a Biden presidency includes more obsequious virtue signaling and support for “anti-racism” and “protests” that are really riots…and gives lip service to BLM, who are a nest of opportunistic Marxists.
But Biden gets the votes of people who are frightened by Trump’s existential threat to the US Constitution…his proven willingness to ignore the rule of law…..to use the Justice Dept. for his own ends….to reward and protect his cronies and to punish people he doesn’t like…..especially career bureaucrats just trying to do their jobs.
I’m one of those people.
Your screed just reinforces the extent to which Dems engage in delusional projection. There has never been such a politicization of the “career” bureaucrats as the whole seditious completely fact-free RussiaGate spectacle.
First, I’m not a Democrat. Second, there are plenty of delusions on both sides. Most of what influences voting these days IS delusion…..neither party has a monopoly on delusional thinking.
I do not for one moment deny that the Democrats have spent the last four years pursuing stupid and wasteful attempts to smear Trump. None of my “screeds” defends that kind of misguided and politically motivated witch hunt.
I don’t speak for the Democrats. I only speak for myself.
Fwiw, I said that from the get-go….from when the whole silly Russiagate thing started. I hardly need to be schooled by you on that.
I get it….. that you LIKE it that “the bureaucracy” has been wrecked by Trump with his constant firings….and his intentional avoidance of filling empty positions in the government…..but do you really think that a system based on cronyism and Trump loyalty is going to be anything other than corrupt and dysfunctional?
THIS is not delusion. Trump got rid of US Attorney Jesse Liu in DC…..to prevent investigations into alleged misconduct by his son and his cronies, and more recently he got rid of US Attorney Geoffrey Berman in NY…for the same reason. Bar was able to put a crony in the DC spot, but he wasn’t in NY, and so investigations are still ongoing.
Audrey Strauss has already busted Steve Bannon, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Giuliani is the next one on her list.
Russiagate was a farce, but there is still plenty to look at as far as Trump, his business dealings and those of his close associates and family.. This is where most of the the bodies are buried.
William Barr has turned the Justice Dept into a political tool for Trump…..one that could lead to some long term negative consequences for our political system……that I’m pretty sure you won’t really like, once they’re in place. Be careful what you wish for.
Jessie Liu gave a silk glove treatment to the guy Wolfe working for Senate Intelligence Committee who leaked the Carter Page FISA application to media and used that leak to start the Russia collusion witch hunt.
Jessie Liu was Obama/Democrat controlled through and through.
Obama filled DOJ and FBI and CIA and FISA court with Obama people doing what Obama/Democrats want as evidenced by the completely bogus Russia collusion hoax and witchhunt for 3+ years and NSA surveilling Trump campaign first thru contractor access in such a way that NSA noticed and shut it down and then thru feeding Hillary Clinton ordered and paid SteeleDossier to FISA court as valid intelligence by CIA/FBI and getting warrants to listen to Trump campaign through Carter Page and using the NSA two-hop rule to listen to everybody in Trump’s campaign including Trump and his Children.
Obama was and is what you fear Trump might become.
Getting Biden elected would lead to Democrats further taking control of every lever of power.
Also Biden has promised amnesty and US citizenship to all of the ILLEGAL immigrants in USA and there are 29.5 million ILLEGAL immigrants in USA according to MIT-Yale study from 2018 so that means 29.5 million new Democrats voters and permanent Democrat control of USA and flood of tens of millions new ILLEGAL immigrants to wait for the next amnesty.
I love Matt Taibbi!
The Trump Era Sucks and Needs to Be Over
The race is tightening. Is America sure it’s ready to give up its addiction to crazy?
Matt Taibbi
August 3, 2020
How about double down for the win?
You haven’t see crazy yet….
Matt Taibbi is the last decent political journalist left, and he gets it better than anybody else. This piece is one of his best. Glad it isn’t hidden behind the paywall.
This is what it boils down to, in just a few words:
“Ever since Trump jumped into politics, the pattern has been the same. He enters the arena hauling nothing but negatives and character liabilities, but leaves every time armed with winnable issues handed to him by overreacting opponents.”
I put it in a slightly different way:
“Never underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to wrest defeat from the jaws of victory.”
The Democrats didn’t create Trump, but they created the opportunity for somebody LIKE Trump…to point out the hypocrisy in their bogus narrative. To appeal to those who found themselves on the losing end of policies designed to “level the playing field” for minorities and women…..increasingly by promoting the idea that there was and is a “white male patriarchy” that needs to be brought down.
“The Democrats didn’t create Trump, but they created the opportunity for somebody LIKE Trump”
The Fed, financialization, “mandates”, bans, mindless kangaroo courts shakedowns and other progressive meddling didn’t just create Trump, it made him inevitable. It’s not a bipartisan issue.
When every single penny in circulation, and hence all influence, is forcibly take away from anyone even remotely competent, to be handed to complete and utter idiots who never have, never will, never can accomplish anything at all of any utility, the end result is a power structure will inevitably consist solely of clowns mirroring those guys. Not people retaining even the tiniest trace of competence.
It’s not just Trump being some “bad apple” in a sea of greatness. It’s pure rot everywhere. If anyone at all on “Wall Street” can read, they sure are doing a bangup job covering it up. Which they well may, as rank idiots is what The Fed pays them to be. And ditto every C-suite anything anywhere, since The Fed then hand enough unearned wealth to those rank idiots to buy up everything else, hence wresting control of everything fro anyone even remotely competent.
It’s all idiots all the way up. Trump’s just another one of them. No different from the “huh? our planes fall down???” monkeys heading up Boeing, nor the complete idiot army heading up every bank in the US for decades by now.
Merely changing the face of who nominally gets to titulate himself Dear Leader over here, won’t have any more effect than it has in any other Caudillostan in the Americas. It’s simply childish theater for the child brained. The next guy will be worse than the last guy. That’s how totalitarian retardtopias always work. To break that cycle, you have to break the fundamental institutions underpinning Retardtopia. Not just change the hair color of the shitshow, from crazy orange to dullard grey.
Here is an app that could be created by Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, or any number of outfits who track browser activity, including OS’s and browsers, themselves.
AutoVote.
Just think: Will your vote change anything? Of course not. So, is it worth it to go through any trouble to vote? Of course not. At best, it’s an exercise in amusement and back-patting self-image.
But, what if voting was very cheap and easy? Really easy. Really cheap. Automatic. What if your vote was completely automated?
And what if your vote was, in fact, a better, more informed vote – as you see it – than what you could do yourself?
Products made by sophisticated, modern machines are superior to hand made. In the same way, an automated vote would better reflect your own preferences than a vote you make yourself!
Think about it: How accurate is your vote for local judges. Or even state representatives. Who are these guys? And how good is the guess you make from reading a voting pamphlet blurb?
An app can do better. Given your browser history, an app would make truly informed votes for you – as you would vote if you spent days or even weeks examining the issues and candidates. This whole voting process could be automated. You’d not even need to know there was an election! Wouldn’t that be nice?
MishTalk commenters: What do you all think? Is that a great idea, or what?
Too easy to hack by Russians/GRU/FSB. The GRU school of Cybersecurity is teaching their children to be professional hackers in elementary school.
The GRU school of Cybersecurity is teaching their children to be professional computer programers in elementary school.
There fixed it for you.
It would be easier just to let the corporations vote instead. With the way the media propagandizes everything it’s just a matter of time.
The rise of the super corporations is here. They will assume more power in government as time goes on. The losers are the people R or D.
“corp…vote” Interesting. Since a “corporation” could be any person or group of persons, one wonders how votes would be allocated to them.
I agree that corporations will acquire power at the expense of governments. That’s a process that’s been going on since the ’50’s and ’60’s when nation states reached their zenith in importance. Since D and R are both creatures of a particular nation state, I’d expect them to have less influence on the world as time goes by.
In fact, I personally worry about this process. A person or group of people losing power they are accustomed to is not a pretty sight. That would apply in the US’s case right now to, say, civil servants.
tRump will find all possible ways to stay in the white-house, regardless of actual voting results. The world to watch a spectacular circus show!
trump is rocking the old, white, and stupid demographic
And Biden the younger, darker and just-as-stupid one.
The election may be determined in the courts from Trump’s mumbling statement today that they already has cases queued up to challenge mail in ballots. I think we may also see some fake ballots sent itn by Russia courtesy of the Trump campaign to show people that mail in balloting could be rigged. Barr seems to be going along with the idea of doing whatever is necessary legally for the Justice Department to help Trump win. So I will modify my prediction now. In a free and fair election Biden would win going away. But since Trump has the levers of power it will go to the courts and it is a tossup irrespective of what the votes say. In short Trump will try to steal the election any way possible.
If for whatever reasons no one has won the presidency by Jan 21, 2021 and assuming that the Dems retain control of the House, then Trump & Pence would be ushered out of the WH and Nancy Pelosi would become president and take possession.
Now that sounds like fun, yes?
Actually they would not. Pelosi would be interim President and Pence would be interim VP until a victor is determine. The victor would be determined by who gets a majority of the 50 state houses. Republicans currently own 27 of those state houses and Democrats 23 but that could very well flip and the new state houses would decide the victor. Trump could be declared the victor even in that scenario and come back into office after some time. My guess is anything that goes to the Supreme court would also be in favor of Biden and not Trump based on how Roberts has ruled cases over the last 4 years. The law is murky when it comes to elections that are undecided but generally speaking the intent of the founders is maintained. It is possible Pelosi and Pence could be interim Pres/VP for some time. There is a LONG time between now and January 20th and much could go wrong or change between now and then. The bottom line is Trump will have the power of the office and everything that goes with it until then. Anyone who crosses Trump will be fired and be replaced with a political appointee Putin-style.
God help us if there is a two month period of not knowing who the president is going to be. It would be multiplied if Jan. 20 rolls around and we still don’t know.
The way the propaganda works on both sides it could get very very nasty.
Also be a little bit more balanced. Russia gate and impeachment were two items the Dems did for years that were pure theater. I don’t put anything pasted either party. Both are just as self serving.
It probably comes down to how many people are annoyed enough to get out and vote against the candidate they despise. Neither guy seems to have a discernible platform other than being the chosen opponent of the other team.
I have no idea how it’s going to turn out and since these aren’t “normal” times anymore, two months is an eternity for new outrage and scandal to push to the forefront. I read today that Trump’s November vaccine push is extremely unlikely to come to fruition, which likely saves him from a major self-inflicted wound.
Dude, it’s not that difficult to find the differences between the Trump and Biden platforms: link to graphics.reuters.com
Is this your first US election? You must be a novice to take these red/blue platforms at face value. If you can remember way back in 2016, how did those campaign promises go? Did he lock her up, end the wars, or build the wall? Oh, and whatever happened to the “big, fat ugly bubble” Trump talked about?
Besides their lack of sincerity, there is no denying that politics have shifted to a largely negative tone, inveighing against the other candidate rather than promoting new ideas of their own. In a way you can’t blame them, the dopey American public seems to enjoy the endless confrontation.
This is too complicated for most voters. Voters go with their gut and whether they want more of the same or not when it comes to an incumbent President. There are less undecideds because of this. Unlike 2016, only one candidate is polarizing. Either you like him or you don’t. I’m not sure who these undecideds are. They likely are the ones that sit on the toilet for a long time and can’t make up their mind there either.
Biden may not be polarizing, but his platform certainly is. I would characterize this election as a candidate that is wrong versus a candidate which is evil. I can’t support either choice, so I’ll vote for Jo Jorgensen.
It always comes down to the lesser of two perceived evils. The system is not even setup for a 3rd party candidate to win a single state.
The result of a choice between the lesser of two evils invariably means that the winner is evil. I refuse to make that choice.
Carl I hate to be the one to break this to you but every human being can become evil.