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Will Trump Cost Republicans the Senate Once Again?

There's good news and likely bad news for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections.
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Senate 2022 Election Map

The above election map courtesy of 270toWin is more than a bit deceiving. Two of those tossups should really be lean Democrat.

I hear the boos at the mention of his name, but Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight sees it this way. 

Nate Silver 538 Odds as of 2022-08-07

Nate Silver 538 Odds as of 2022-08-07

Four Key Tossup States 

Four Key Tossup States 538 2022-08-07

Barring major upsets elsewhere, control of the Senate will come down to Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. 

I disagree with the 270 to win map as presented. This is how I see things. 

Mish Current Senate Forecast

Mish Senate Forecast 2022-08-07

If my take is accurate, Republicans need to win both Georgia and Nevada to retake the Senate. That's not impossible, but it's difficult. 

What Happened in Pennsylvania?

In Pennsylvania, Trump backed Mehmet Oz, a very weak "stop the steal" no-name candidate with Turkish citizenship and service in the Turkish military.

This guy may go down in flames by double digits. It's still early, maybe OZ wins but mentally put Pennsylvania in the Democrats column. 

What Happened in Arizona?

Thanks to Trump, Republicans fielded another exceptionally weak Senate Candidate.

Blake Masters, backed by former President Donald Trump and venture capitalist Peter Thiel, won the Arizona Republican Party's nomination. 

Masters made this absurd comment "Don't we suspect that like one third of the people outside the capital complex on January 6th were actual FBI agents hanging out."

Governor Doug Ducey wanted to run for Senate and would have been a very strong candidate. However, Trump vowed to defeat Mr. Ducey because the Governor refused to help overturn Trump's 2020 loss in the state. 

What About Georgia?

Trump backed former NFL running back Herschel Walker. 

Curiously, Walker says he is Mad at Trump for Taking Credit

Senate Seat Giveaway

The Campaigner and the Man

Add in ridiculous trade wars, sanctions that backfired, and a broken promise to get out out of Afghanistan. 

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Will Trump Cost the Senate Once Again? 

Had Trump accepted the 2020 loss and campaigned in Georgia for Republicans, I think they would have won at least one of those Georgia runoff elections and we never would have gone through this Build Back Better nonsense.

It would also have put Trump in a better position now, with far less Republican infighting.

Instead, Trump promoted very weak candidates in at least two states. Both are likely to go down in flames.

In Michigan

The Good News

It's overwhelmingly likely Republicans take back the House. That would kill any more Democrat nonsense.

I suspect Nancy Pelosi might then retire, vacating her seat.

Will Trump Run? 

Democrats hope so. 

I believe he won't, and that has been my call from the moment he lost in 2020.

But if he does, I believe he will either lose the nomination or find a health reason to back out.

Trump may be the only candidate the Democrats can beat in 2024. But that's a long way off. 

The next presidential election will depend on the economy in 2024, whether Democrats can avoid Kamala Harris, and a slew of unknowns. 

Meanwhile, the good news is Biden will soon be a lame duck president, with Democrats unable to inflict legislative nonsense. 

The bad news is we can expect more executive branch mandates that hopefully the Supreme Court will strike down.

Senate Passes Climate, Healthcare and Tax Bill With Manchin and Sinema on Board

In case you missed it, the Senate Passes Climate, Healthcare and Tax Bill With Manchin and Sinema on Board

If Trump did cost Republicans at least one seat in Georgia, please thank Trump for that result. 

It would have been a $4 trillion inflationary disaster had it not been for Senator Joe Manchin. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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