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Youngkin Moves Ahead of McAuliffe in Majority of Recent Virginia Polls

My analysis of the polls puts Younkin at slightly more than two percentage points in the lead.
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Who's Ahead in the Virginia

Reflections on Early Voting 

The Virginia Gubernatorial election depends on total turnout, and independents, not early turnout. 

Extrapolating election outcomes from partial returns is a very hard problem, and becoming harder in many ways

Unlike Trump who told followers to vote on elections day (a mistake), Youngkin encouraged people to vote early. 

Candidates should always seek early voting for their side.  Those votes cannot be changed or taken away. 

At the last minute, some people who waited might change their minds or not vote at all.

Virginia Polls 

Here are all of the Virginia Polls.

Poll Discussion

Here are all of the Virginia Polls.

I am a fan of weighting momentum and more recent polls over earlier polls. 

Nate Silver posts polls by release date. The key date is the date the polls were conducted. 

I favor the recent polls of shorter duration as opposed to polls over a long period time like the Oct 9-21 poll by Virginia Commonwealth.

Most Recent Polls

  • Oct 29-31 Trafalgar: Youngkin +2 LV
  • Oct 27-31 Insider: Youngkin +2 LV
  • Oct 27-29 Echelon: Youngkin +3 LV
  • Oct 24-27 Fox News: Youngkin +8 LV, +1 RV
  • Oct 20-26 WaPo: McAuliffe +1 LV, +4 RV
  • Oct 21-24 Suffolk: Tie LV

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Advantage Youngkin

The Fox News polls caused much discussion. +8 On Likely Voters vs. +1 Registered voters is such a huge discrepancy there may be a polling error or sampling outlier.

Mentally call the Fox outcome +2 or +2.5  for Youngkin if you like. 

That makes the 4 most recent polls approximately +2 for Youngkin. If we do the same for WaPo, the prior two polls are +2 for McAuliffe and a tie.

Trafalgar

Momentum 

There is a small but clear advantage to Youngkin in the most recent polls. 

Moreover, momentum is also increasingly Youngkin's way.

Mish Call

Nate Silver has Youngkin +1. To pick a specific number to one decimal place, I have Younkin +2.2 .

However, these numbers are all within margin of error. I will not be surprised by anything.

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