Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs. 
Image courtesy of Axios + Generation Lab Youth Poll
The Economy
The economy is a very broad category that encompasses inflation, jobs, unemployment, wages, rent, and housing.
Other polls split the economy in various pieces, such as inflation and jobs. Not a single poll mentioned housing specifically.
Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds?
A: Rent
The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline
The CPI rose 0.4 percent in March. Rent was up another 0.4 percent with gasoline up 1.7 percent. Together, the pair was about half of the total rise.
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in March. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 31 consecutive months!
The “rents are falling” (or soon will) projections have been based on the price of new leases and cherry picked markets. But existing leases, much more important, keep rising.
Only 8 to 9 percent of renters move each year. It’s been a huge mistake thinking new leases and finished construction would drive rent prices.
For discussion, please see The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline
Rent does not really go up every month. The BLS smooths things out over time. Instead, rent has surged once a year more than wages have kept up.
Immigration Not the Key Issue Where It Matters
I sympathize with the view that immigration is the key issue, and perhaps it is to voters nationally.
Mayors in Chicago, Denver, and New York city are all bitterly complaining. So are governors Greg Abbot in Texas and Ron DeSantis in Florida. Add in California for good measure.
Those six states provide 188 of the 270 electoral college votes but none of them are in play.
The six swing states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. Immigration is only a hot issue in Arizona where abortion is also in play.
Blacks Abandon Biden
A WSJ Swing State Poll show blacks, especially black males, are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.
In the swing states, 30 percent of black males now support Trump. That’s up from 12 percent in the 2020 election. Trump support from black females is up from 6 percent to 11 percent.
The numbers are not directly comparable because the 2020 numbers are national. However, the numbers flash a huge warning sign.
The WSJ poll confirms the NYT/ Siena poll from last October: Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Young Voters Say Their Discontent Goes Deeper Than Israel and Gaza
Israel is a big issue in Michigan, likely more so than immigration.
But across the board, Young Voters Say Their Discontent Goes Deeper Than Israel and Gaza
Generational Homeownership Rates
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.
The Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report shows Millennial homeownership seriously lags other generations.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower still.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Home Prices Hit New Record High
The latest Case-Shiller housing data shows home prices hit a new record high.
Adding insults and costs, the 30-year mortgage rate ended last week at 7.30 percent according to Mortgage News Daily.
Those looking to buy a home are very angry about being priced out while watching rent soar for nearly three years.
Explaining the Polls
The homeownership discrepancy (Black/White, and Young/Old) fully explains the polls. Yet not a single pollster or economist is in tune with relationship.
A high percentage of blacks and young voters are likely vote for Biden, but the shift vs 2020 is what will matter.
President Biden and economists in general keep singing the praises of the economy.
On average the economy is doing OK. And asset holders have generally fared well in this economy. But averages will not decide the election.
The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona
On April 17, I wrote The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona, It Could Cost Republicans Dearly
That’s still my position with an emphasis on the word “could”.
What About Trump’s Legal Issues?
Trump will lose some Republicans and undecided voters who may sit the election out on grounds that Trump was part of an insurrection or contributed to one.
However, The Need to Prevent a Biden Economic Collapse Outweighs Charges Against Trump
Republicans are willing to look the other way on the charges against Trump.
So, if current trends hold, it’s the economy that will matter.
Specifically, the election will be decided by extreme unhappiness in the block of voters who rent but want to by a home, concluding things were better under Trump.
Are we better off than 4 years ago?
Trump will win by a fair margin,but the “October Surprise” by the Dems. this time around will once again make us wish we were something other than human.🙃
Mish, I think that you are correct but are only seeing half of the picture. The cost of home ownership is surging, even if the owner is secure with a low interest mortgage. Property taxes, insurance costs, utilities, and repairs and maintenance are out of control. If you are not a homeowner and looking to buy it is even worse.
Historically it’s usually the economy
After reading this article.
I calculated my rent rate (pegged at 3%) and recalculated rent as if I were to finance tomorrow at 7%
Low and behold, 30,000 on $1 mill mortgage versus $70,000. It’s safe to say. Rent needs to double!
Essentially, rates increased to where they need to be.
Money supply doubled.
Rents doubled.
Many retailvfoodbitems doubled.
Why hasn’t the cpi caught bio with this doubling effect? Truflation report also way behind the doubling effect . 🤔
“The future is already here, it just isn’t evenly distributed yet.”
Inflation is like a monsoon flood, it hits some areas before others. But eventually it gets everywhere and everyone gets soaked by it.
Gentrification via zoning, along with currency debasement, are driving both rent and housing to the moon. Gentrification is substantially a desperate attempt by localities to deal with out-of-control K-12 education inflation. Baumol effect amplifying currency debasement.
Housing and immigration are effectively the same problem.
Prevent and deport illegals and the housing situation improves.
If home taxes, insurance and maintenance go up, owners must increase rents. And airbnb fever, that squeeze supply.
No solution. Home taxes will increase to pay public workers.
That’s not how markets work. If owners set rents too much above the market clearing level, they get no tenants and no income at all … see office towers.
The market doesn’t care at all whether landlords make a profit. Only if enough landlords go out of business does the market price of rent come up.
And this will continue to result in more job openings!!!
What a great time to be looking for a job — if you are not vaxxed 🙂
Cancer Mortality up 26% in younger age brackets – shows no signs of abating.
No matter the rhetoric or deflection one offers, if you cannot see this CLEAR INFLECTION caused by the mRNA vaccine, you are just maliciously dishonest.
You see why I have no respect for such clowns.
link to t.me
Rents have exploded nationwide. Even way, way out in the boonies, small rural, farming, and rust belt towns, rents have doubled, even tripled since Biden.
Tons of these old dumps have been sold out to soulless profiteers and banks for crazy cash, and now they are mercilessly putting on the squeeze.
Many local govs are on the hay wagon glomming tax rev too. It is a disaster for young working folks.
It cannot stand, but yet it does. Folks just don’t know what to do about it.
Politicos are bought and don’t care. That’s why they won’t say shit.
Most folks only want to work and live with reasonable expectations of improving their lot. They do not want strife.
It should get ugly, but they don’t know who to hit.
Elected office will become a revolving door.
But it will take a huge movement and governmental power to undo the greed of the usurpers.
BOTH increasing AND decreasing that power depends on each individual situation.
Not since FDR’s time has there been such a conundrum of frustrated interests.
It is a full blown inflationary depression.
Without justice in sight, it will evolve into a monumental crash (and possible wars) which will redefine values.
I never underestimate America.
I think we will prevail.
“…rents have doubled, even tripled since Biden.”
I appreciate a good hyperbolic statement, but this is too much.
Rent for farm land has been explosive to certain extent, too.
Buying a farm today still does not match the mortgage it takes to acquire farmland.. speculation on farm land productivity of farmland and what food production in the future? May be like relative to what farmland costs to own today?
Here in Ontario, Canada. For the last 15 years. We have the largest fund groups buying up 1000s of acres each year each fund group. Driving prices but. Yes. Though, so far. The moves are notbonly speculation on land prices. Yet securing the ability to produce a more important commodity. Food.
I think the economy will decide the election. Homeowners are also feeling inflation. We recently moved out of IL but still have family living there. My brother thinks IL could turn red. The blacks and Hispanics are outraged over the money being spent on the migrants/illegals. They already spent over $300 million and Chicago just approved another $70 million this week. The blacks are talking about recalling mayor Brandon Johnson.
Interesting. One of my predictions for 2024 is some blue states will unexpectwdlty turn red and some red will unexpectedly turn blue. I expect Republicans to do well in states like California, New York and Illinois and Democrats will do well in Texas, Alabama, Florida and Kentucky. I think state and federal representatives will pay the price the most. No incumbent is going to be safe.
“No incumbent is going to be safe.” That is good. The last thing we want politicians to have is job security. Now if we could just rid of some of those old geezers.
Testing 1,2,3 Testing 1,2,3 Anyone who has hid my comments from their feed give me a thumbs up.
Just jot back from a very long hike to Neon Canyon in the Grand Escalante then played around in a place called Devils garden till after sunset.
Beautiful area. If you have time and have not been there, go to Canyonlands NP and Deadhorse SP on the other side.
I just spent the day in Paris at a couple of museums with my small grandchildren and their parents and I am exhausted even though I too like hiking. Those little kids can run and keep it up all day long without stopping.
The economy includes taxes. Biden could trump rent and inflation by running hard on taxing the filthy rich. The top 10% account for much of the demand and paying fair taxes would provide the braking inflation needs.
Okay. So renters “in swing states” will decide the election.
Anyone here fit that description?
If not, then everyone here should just stop all the nonsense about arguing politics, and which party is better and which candidate is better. You’re all wasting your time. For two reasons.
1. Your vote doesn’t matter.
2. No matter who wins, they won’t make your life any better than it is now. Only you can do that.
Well, I am here in Western PA, and I’ve seen in the last midterm that R’s would simply not vote for MAGA – at least 30% didn’t. Down ticket, yes, vote for Biden, hell no, but they simply left their vote blank. Immigration and the woke culture war from the left keeps people from voting for Biden… And I’m in an area with a large population of LEGAL immigrants.
Thats just Mish’s thesis. There’s a lot to factor in besides just renters.
Agree, your vote does not matter.
So let’s answer the question. What matters?
You can create your own out come. Yup. And the willingness happens to make things happen under a certain political climate happens to be the ruling factor.
Let’s break this pattern. Let’s discuss what will grow in the near future.
Acquire assets debt free?
Multi ples buildings , converting office spaces? Plausible?
The balance sheets on commercial real estate needs to find a solution.
Hotels in Toronto are all near full occupancy! Not with tourists, rather with legal immigrants. On social service/welfare until they have a home. They all have jobs, yet are receiving govt assistance until they have found an apartment. November and February whist at two conferences in Toronto. Social service workers revealed 600+ immigrants living in the two different hotels. All Meals were catered. Garbage bins were collected three times a week.
Win win?
Hotels , social services, restaurants, govt agencies, govt spending, rental incomes up?
Was at Costco today helping an elderly friend who needed someone to take her shopping there.
I went through the sample section, and after finishing the sample I discarded my cup or container in the provided trash cans. The trash cans were labeled Trash – Recycle – Compost.
I thought to myself that this would make a great polling survey mechanism by replacing these three labels with the Two Major Candidates plus a Third Party Candidate. Customers would put their trash in the corresponding receptacle and see which one filled up the most. I expressed my idea to one of the sample vendors, and they said it didn’t matter because everything just goes into the dumpster. There is no recycling, or Composting because the customers are so confused about which category to put their trash in, that there is cross contamination of the category groups, and they just have throw the whole bag in the trash.
Of course this got me thinking about Politicking and Vote Counting, and I thought of the striking similarities to our election process.
One time I did take a closer look to see if there were actually three separate plastic bags under the cover of the receptacle.
Unfortunately the society is programmed to pitch things in a bin and be done with it. No thought given to what happens before or after the items are used, just fulfill the social obligation of getting one’s refuse out of sight lest it be seen by someone else.
I too with my new found information have looked to see if all trash items were just being funneled into one bag.
The sad thing is that two extra bags are being used so that….
“People can Pretend to be Recycling, and Items can Pretend to be Recycled”
Russia has progressed tremendously from the Soviet Union Era where …. “People Pretended to work, and Workers Pretended to be Paid”
Has America actually devolved to were….
“People Pretend to Vote, and Politicians Pretend to be Elected”
The number of people receiving Social Security declined by 13,500 in March. I knew this was going to happen sooner rather than latter because of the shear number of Baby Boomers exceeding the average age of mortality; which is currently 75 years old. An increased number of deaths has been rising since 2020 and still continues to this day. This phenomenon was originally blamed on a contagion. Most of the people accused of dying from this contagion were Baby Boomers, who were reaching in greater numbers an age of natural expiration. See attached article.
link to newsweek.com
It call into question whether older generations have made America a better place for their posterity. After all they cannot take it with them.
Absolutely Gaussian, but quite normal.
Delightful comment – thanks for posting.
Tick tock, boomers…
$127,329 Annual Salary to afford a home in Boise Idaho.
Insane.
Well, depends on the down payment. 🙂
Pro tip – don’t ever allow your town to appear on the Money Magazine 10 Best Places To Live Now! list.
You are welcome.
Sincerely,
Money from California real estate sales
Democrat presidential win up to 56c on predictit.com, which I believe translates to a 56% chance of winning.
The free market is usually correct.
Hahahahaha! Not at this stage in the election cycle.
You’re talking about the same market that hasn’t been able to predict upcoming interest rates for like 4 years…. The same market that has over the past 28 years led millions of people into financial deaths in 3 epic stock bubbles, 2 housing bubbles and a bond bubble (aka “ZIRP”). The market doesn’t know shit because no one really knows shit about the future that far ahead.
What are they giving for odds in the pub at Innisfree? Same as Crook County, IL?
1 in 36 kids in the US now has some degree of autism.
But… Amish kids have no autism.
link to corespirit.com;
Discuss
Iceland has no autism either. Solution for them is abortion.
link to cbsnews.com
Discuss
Brown mustard on Icelandic hot dogs is popular staple food of Iceland. Three of the few vegetables that grow in Iceland are cabbage, turnips, and cauliflower, all excellent sources of sulphorophane.
Isothiocyanate in cruciferous vegetables cures autism.
link to nutritionfacts.org
Dr Jed Fahey from John Hopkins did most of the research on this, sulfurophane is the compound. He has a website and is retired now. Broccoli sprouts have the highest concentration but you have to grow them yourself, no way to buy good quality ones in the health food store. You can find some supplements that have the compound. I think the two that have the most are Avmacol and Broq. But eating just broccoli does provide some also.
Yes, sulphorophane, thanks for the correction. A better source than broccoli sprouts is mustard seeds. Brown mustard has a higher concentration of sulphorophane than yellow mustard seed. Blend the seeds with water and let the puree stand overnight because the sulphorophane is produced by a slow enzyme reaction. The product is the original mustard sauce. You can spread it on sandwiches, or dilute into soup, spaghetti sauce, however you please.
Interesting, where do you get brown mustard seeds.
Ethic Indian grocery stores. The local stores are called Cash & Carry. I’m sure they go by different names.
I’m very fortunate that I have a landlord that charges way below market rent. He owns 300+ units and does a lot of the work himself. He was just mowing the lawn the other day.
He’s a multimillionaire but he makes the world a better place by being so generous towards his tenants.
There are some landlords in the area charging $1500 for what I rent (Massachusetts). He’s way way way below that and the only explanation is he’s generous and doing a good deed.
In a year I will be a homeowner again, and I have my landlord to thank for allowing me to save money.
Low rents also keeps the complaining tenants on a lower boil. 🙂
I have calculated my rent to be about half of what the market bares.
The maintenance on the rental is sta5ting to show dis repair. Although my tenants appreciate the low rent. What they haven’t kept up with bis the regular maintenance required to fit in with all the neighbors who pay higher rents or mortgages.
What to do?
After three years of rentbincreases by every one else. I may need to raise rents just to catch up with maintenence.
Risk of losing Tennant? Due to raising rent from. $2100 per month to $2500.
Rentals on street/neighborhood fetch $3200 or higher. Though properties are better kept. Updated kitchens etc.
I don’t want tobinvest more into the house. To carry a small loan to get more money. $7k per year or more is a lot of revenue.
Nothing fundamentally changed from Trump to Biden – besides flooding the country with an immigrant Hail Mary to try and save social security. Of course the red team committed political suicide with abortion and the left embraced tranny’s.
Judeo Christianity offers a lot of polarizing divisive sex related issues to exploit.
They had to flood the country with immigrants to save SS because doing it rationally from a budgetary perspective would require shrinking the parasitical Military and Government sucking America dry and we know that’s not going to happen.
The strong feelings both sides are experiencing about their neighbors, were planted in their heads. It’s all fake. Each side thinks the other is living in a delusion?
“They’re deluded, I’m not deluded?”
Has it even occurred to anyone to question, maybe both sides are deluded and that “they might be deluded too?”
50% 50% 8 years later still 50% 50%. Don’t you find that a bit odd?
“Vote Giant Asteroid” because it’s our only hope.
Except maybe with Trump they’ll collapse the economy and then finally go to war with Iran for Israel. Other then that expect more homeless, more fentanyl, more meth, more destroyed small towns, more secret police, more dead Ukrainians, more ugliness, more meanness, more pot holes, more illegal surveillance, more crowd stalking, more government intimidation, more taxes, more theft from our children’s future, more MIC, more peculiar deaths, more repulsive politicians, more bogus prosecutions, more all around ugliness.
FB, I’ve met Mish (seems a decent guy with raucous, off-the-charts candor after a 3rd beer) and have occasionally read this blog for many years. This post, sir(?) is one of, if not the best I’ve read, especially the last paragraph. Every last word is insightful and absolutely on point.
My summation of what’s transpiring in this continually-declining globe can be summed up with “a degradation of the value placed on honesty, integrity, and just plain, good ol’ “fairness.”
It all boils down to the realization that the best life has to offer is a modicum of happiness (every one of us has problems – if you think “not me,” it’s like they say about a clear conscience is the sign of a very poor memory).Immense wealth and the ability to control others (you listenin” Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Zuckerberg and the other power-crazed members of the WEF?) is not the path to the best life offers.
Are we willing to accept the dictates of those who are mobilizing to control our lives? Once CBDC is implemented (I challenge anyone to name an individual or organization who’s going to stop it?), it’s game over for “The American Way.” Where are the Patrick Henrys of the 21st century?
Thanks Much
Just got back from a very long hike to Neon Canyon in Utah
The MAGA folks in congress look like they are on the side of Putin. The speaker who has a son in the navy wanted no part of betraying his country for Putin.
They are the ONLY ones that care about human life and peace…… or care more about it than they do about receiving money laundering kickbacks from the MICMIC or from Zelensky directly
It’s REAL EASY to be a tough guy when you don’t have to touch war or send yourself or your kid to do someone else’s bidding
I would contend if putin is scary to you and you want to protect Ukraine then go suit up and volunteer. Zelensky has a foreign volunteer unit set up specifically for those heros that feel strongly about it. Your spot is waiting for you Casual. You can be a hero. Get going
I’m too low on the totem pole to be scared of Putin. Your beef is with the speaker of house who knows way more than you or me and let that slip last week.
What makes you think that a civilian that doesn’t know shit about war or the military that receives propaganda filled briefings that greatly benefit the MICMIC, delivered to him FROM the MICMIC, knows more than me or my contact list?
Uh because you or I are not privy to military satellite data.
At some point you do have to trust something. Do you think the sun comes up in the east ? Is the earth flat or round? Is the sky blue on a clear day?
TPTB aren’t using Russia for anything. Putin is playing chess. He wasn’t a slouch.
Yes, the speaker is spending $95,000,000,000 of our money just to keep his kid out of harms way.
Meanwhile there is a whole up and coming generation that can’t afford a dam home. What is Mike Johnson doing about that? Illegal immigration? Fentanyl? The old geezer in the white house?
That generation’s parents are rich beyond measure. If they aren’t then they only have themselves to blame.
And that generation wants their kids to be more successful than they were. Instead their kids are living in their basements because they can’t afford a dam house.
Sometimes, people don’t get what they want.
I lived in my parents house in the 1990s after college and supported them for 5 years. We did it together. It wasn’t until 2011 that I finally bought my first home. 16 years after graduating college.
And that $95B is borrowed forever.
Right. Cuz minding your own business and not supporting the Establishment’s wars to control the World Island ala Mackinder equates to supporting Putin. Since Putin seems to be living rent-free inside your head, I’d say you’re suspect, too
No. Putin continues his westward expansion of the Russian military. I predict there will be war in Europe before 2027.
link to defensenews.com
When in Canada I’m on the side of poutine.
Ah, wordplay — very clever!
MAGA is what happens when you let a foreign adversary weaponize your morons with social media.
It will be about the economy. Voter economic perception and follow through will be based on the change in U3 (headline national unemployment rate) between March and June. That is what will decide the November election, absent a black swan event. To avoid rampant boredom here, I will post the nerd-level detail after the UE releases for April, May, and June.
Would a rate hike this summer classify as a black swan event ? I don’t think it is out of the cards yet based on how energy prices are going. People may scream uncle at Jerome Powell soon.
No. A hike is a reasonably predictable outcome despite how much the gamblers and speculators on Wall Street want low rates.
No. Not even covid was a black swan event. Trump’s imprisonment, Biden’s death or incapacitation, or war would be examples off the top of my head.
Between interest rates and housing inflation, buying a house is out of reach for so many. Imagine having to scrape together a $70,000 down payment just to get an average house. It’s hard enough to scrape together first and last months rent in this paycheck to paycheck economy.
Biden’s starter home proposal is a non-starter as the costs associated with trading up to a better house far exceed what Biden wants to handout. We need a change. We need Trump!!!
Between interest rates and housing inflation, buying a house is out of reach for so many. Imagine having to scrape together a $70,000 down payment just to get an average house. It’s hard enough to scrape together first and last months rent in this economy.
Biden’s starter home proposal is a non-starter as the costs associated with trading up to a better house far exceed what Biden wants to handout. We need a change. We need Trump!!!
Could the increase in rents have anything to do with the 10 million border crossers wondering over here to help us lower labor costs?
Yes
Just think about the triple whammy the “part of the little guy” has handed to the little guys with uncontrolled immigration: driving up the cost of rent, lowering wages and sucking all the air out of the social safety net to boot…
Your assuming the Democrat machine will allow it to happen
It won’t.
Specifically, the election will be decided by extreme unhappiness in the block of voters who rent but want to by a home, concluding things were better under Trump.
—
When these voters last left off with Trump as President, they were getting to live rent free because of bailouts provided to landlords by the government. Maybe they and others don’t actually remember or have some really great expectations that this will happen again.
All who deal with Trump end up under the bus. This is pretty well known now.
Putting hopes on blacks to save Trump seems like the pinnacle of panic but let’s look at the math. Black population:
Georgia 3.374m (33.1%)
Michigan 1.364m (14.1%)
Pennsylvania 1.409m (12.7%)
Nevada 290,223 (10.8%)
Wisconsin 363,331 (7.7%)
Arizona 327,077 (4.7%)
The only state that Trump comes even close to getting black support to matter is Georgia and that assumes a large portion come out to vote for him. The other states population is too low to matter much but even if it did, it’s not enough to offset the millions of trump leaning boomers that have died since the last election which is about 7.3 million boomers. The math doesn’t add up unless it’s 100% black support for Trump which is laughable.
Michigan just went full democrat in a recent special election, count that one out.
Arizona is out because of abortion so you can count that out too.
That leaves PA, NV, WI. WI black population is tiny, scratch that out along with NV.
So the two states Trump may have a chance at with the “black messiahs” are Pennsylvania and Georgia.
I think WOMEN will decide 2020 and they won’t be voting for republicans. There is cold hard math then there is fanciful emotional thinking.
By the way, Mike Johnson passed the war funding bill with money for everyone and has set republicans hating each other again.
Last thoughts though…what did trump do for blacks last time he was president?
People have some delusions of grandeur of the Trump years while blaming Biden for their current lot in life.
They miss the government sugar he was handing out hand over fist.
A rising tide lifts all boats
First Step act for starters
First time I saw anyone look at demographics when talking about the hopes of a presidential win.
Why do the dems say their voter foundation are black women when they constitute, what, 6% of the vote? What about moving 1% of the white vote and you win?
Looking at the graph above (Generation Homeownership Rates), if you take the Millennial curve and move it 15 years to the left, it’s really not that far different from the Gen X curve. Why would I move it 15 years to the left? Because that would approximate the ages of each cohort to be the same (actually, 18-20 years is probably closer to reality). So you could say that the problem with the affordability of home purchases started during the time Gen X came up, or you could say that Millennials don’t have it significantly worse than Gen X at the same stage of their lives. I don’t have the raw numbers, only the graph to work with, so it’s hard to say if my guesstimate is correct, but that’s sure what it looks like.
Now, does that mean things are going well? Nope, not at all. And yes, the home affordability problem should affect the election in swing states. But something else that could make a difference is if the Biden admin doesn’t put the brakes on the wars it seems to delight in supporting and that causes gasoline prices to skyrocket. That would sink his chances as a large majority of voters would feel that pinch, owners or renters.
most renters are feeling resentment towards whoever is in charge (incumbents)… probably bad news for Joetato.
“It’s who is counting the votes” – the Other Mustache Guy
Renters will decide every future election as the homeowner becomes an endangered species.
What we need is another round of tax cuts for wealthy people who will surely trickle down by lowering rents on the many properties they own. I am sure the large Private Equity firms invested in real estate will follow suit.
Not a fan of Biden, but I am confused by how electing a billionaires backed president will change an iota on the problems of rents.
To clarify, the Dems are now the party of the rich. The pandemic programs were the largest redistribution of wealth ever. Look at who benefited.
Everything isn’t tax cuts. Regulations add a lot of the costs and these could be reduced as most are useless rules designed to create bureaucratic growth. Bureaucracies never solve a problem. They perpetuate the problems and grow.
The pandemic programs started in 2020 under a republican president.
They were ENFORCED with Masking, DIstancing, Wearing Certificates of compliance like they were proving one’s intelligence.
Nonetheless the handouts and bailouts started with Doald J. Trump as president. In fact he wanted his signature on the checks as if he was writing them.
Young voters are disillusioned about housing costs and especially foreign policy, especially Gaza. Maybe they’ll stay home but I don’t see them voting for Trump who If anything is even more pro-murdering Palestinians and the solution to housing costs is massive demand destruction and deflation.
I’m a warrior turned peacenik and believe in diplomacy at nearly EVERY cost. Do we need to review the Trump first term war record versus any other President going back to Clinton and even beyond?
I’m tired of this bullshit deranged comment that communists and warmongers have been parroting since he first ran in 2015 and I’m still shocked that propaganda swallower and idiots STILL believe it and say it publicly thinking nobody will correct them on the truth
So everyone you disagree with is a communist/warmonger/propoganda swallowing idiot? You might need some help, Hank.
War and peace is just math.
Do the math, compare it to history, and then spout off about Trump again.
It’s not a disagreement or a philosophical argument; it’s math.
Intentionally lying or ignorant parroting of lies makes no difference to me. It’s all part of the “projection” or “accuse your opposition of what you are guilty of” principle of the Saul Alinsky playbook.
I will agree with you that I do need help on many things. This isn’t one of them
I can help you. Tell anyone who disagrees to STFU. That is how I do it and it just sets people off.
Saul Alinsky. LOL. You must be Newt Gingrich…
The problem isn’t who is pro-who … it’s the utter lack of competence in the current administration to successfully be pro-anything … other than wasting money. A pro-Israel but anti-war admin that actually knows how to make peace agreements that stick, would be better for Gaza than 4 more years of the current fiasco, no?
Still too early. I predict things look quite differen this summer..
Agreed. But it’s starting to get into summer now so I’m thinking more like late summer (end of Aug – early Sept) will be when we’ll get a clearer indication of how those swing states might vote (as Mish correctly says, most states aren’t in play and thus don’t matter).
Im pretty sure this election will be decided by the young women who are threatened with jail if they dont raise their baby (ladies who will come out of the hinterlands to vote just like the 1960s guys who were about to be drafted) and the guys who understand them. All these groups had their butts on the line — increases voting.
Me, me, me! To the point where life itself is a threat. The whole death cult thing is getting old.
Yep. There are millIons of new women voters in 2024. I think this election won’t be as much a referendum on the economy as people think. Have to remember that younger voters don’t think the economic system is even the right one at a baseline. It isn’t about taxes or regulation to them. Their vote is determined by fairness on issues like student loans.
“Their vote is determined by fairness on issues like student loans.”
Assuming this is true, how do you see it playing out?
I imagine *way* more people are paying their loans (or have paid off their loans) than would qualify for forgiveness. Based on the idea of fairness, you’d have to imagine that everyone who is paying or has paid would hugely resent anyone who is getting forgiveness and thus not vote for Biden based on that.
I’m with you there. I was just pointing out how the next generation of new voters thinks. And I know of people who paid back most of their loans and now getting forgiven the remainder. They aren’t saying no to forgiveness.
Don’t raise their baby? Last I checked, adoption was still legal.
So are heart surgeries but I still wouldnt want to be involved in one. Making the abortion pill illegal nationwide means more women will be forced to raise a kid (from a rapist?) they dont want and/or cant afford. What kind of kid do you think the kid will turn into? Why did crime drop off a cliff after the 1970s? The 1990s were supposed to be a hellstorm of crime (look it up), but it wasnt. Cause abortion was made legal.
Gee Honey Boo Boo, why are you so obsessed with women getting pregnant because they are raped? Is that because Senile Joe Biden and his minions, various Soros prosecutors and judges, believe in releasing rapists from prison or not prosecuting them…just prosecute anyone who disagrees with them…Like Putin, who has endorsed Senile Joe
That theory has been pretty much debunked. It wasn’t abortion that caused crime to drop because it assumes every aborted kid was a master criminal and not a future productive member of society.
Something else far more important happened in the last 70s. The Catalytic converter became mandatory and leaded fuel use was banned in new cars. Getting rid of a major pollutant (lead) that causes very well known brain issues was almost certainly the bigger contributor (esp since in densely populated cities, the lead poisoning would have been at it’s worst).
Crime “dropped off a cliff” because the largest generation aged out of their teens/early 20s and transitioned into mid-life (a.k.a. what is generally considered to be adulthood). No way those rascals born in the first half of “Generation X” could match the output of crime and petty hijinks of the late boomers.
What, you disagree? Well it’s equivalent to statement you made.
In other words, your statement is wrong because correlation != causation.