Inversion!

Curve Watchers’ Anonymous has had its eyes on the yield curve in expectation that portions of the curve would invert. A small inversion did happen on Tuesday when yield on 6-month treasuries briefly traded at a higher yield than 1-year treasuries.

Bloomberg Screen Shot

inversion3

I captured the above chart at 5:00PM but similar conditions existed for several hours.

Yield Curve 6-Month to 5-Year

UST Inversion

  • Red: 5-Year
  • Blue: 3-Year
  • Green: 2-Year
  • Orange 1-year
  • Purple: 6-Month
  • Brown: 3-Month

I created the above chart in Stockcharts. Alas, Stockcharts uses end-of-day vales only so it appears there is no inversion today. Yesterday the 6-month and 1-year treasuries closed with the same yield.

Those who insist the yield curve needs to invert before a recession can happen, now have that inversion, even if it’s a tiny one.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock