Today, Farage reversed course. Farage tells Boris Johnson to ‘drop the deal’ or face Brexit party challenge. This is both preposterous and idiotic (assuming it is not a bluff or part of a collusion strategy). It could be either, easily.
Mark Francois, the MP and deputy chairman of the European Research Group, which represents hardline Tory Brexiters, told the BBC’s World at One that he thought Nigel Farage had “screwed up” this morning because his rejection of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal was unreasonable. Francois explained:
“I think Nigel screwed it up. If you genuinely want to work with another political party, you don’t go on live national television and call them liars, which is what he did. He said Boris’s deal doesn’t take us out of the European Union. That is not true. It does take us out of the European Union. That’s why I and my fellow so-called Spartans [the 28 Tory Brexiters who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times] voted for it. We would never, ever have voted for it if we thought it kept us in. I’m sorry, but Nigel is just simply mistaken. If that was meant to be to be an olive branch, Nigel completely cocked it up.”
Francois also said he did not think any of his fellow Tory Brexiters would be intimidated by the prospect of the Brexit party standing against them. He said:
“Do you really think he is going to bully people like Bill Cash or IDS or Owen Paterson? Have you never met these people? Look at the MPs who voted for the deal – Sir Bill Cash, Owen Paterson, John Redwood, Andrew Bridgen, Steve Baker, myself – all lifelong Eurosceptics. Do you really think we would have voted for that deal if we thought it kept us into the European Union? Of course not.”
“I’m sorry, Nigel is a very talented politician, but anyone who works with him will tell you he’s often his own worst enemy. And his ego has got the better of him. I don’t think he’s going to bully any Tory MP into doing anything they don’t want to do.”
Comment of the Day
Tweet Series of the Day
That is the first of a series of 10 Tweets.
Hung Parliament
https://twitter.com/econbartleby/status/1190247786601730048
Significant damage to the Tories assumes Farage is silly enough to carry through with his threat and in the worst possible manner.
I assume otherwise.
Closet Remainer
Here’s the bizarre scenario that I strongly discount but is possible.
Farage does dot give a damn unless he gets 100% of what he wants simply because he likes to bitch or brag.
Farage Nonsense
To say Johnson’s deal does not deliver Brexit is complete nonsense.
Eurointelligence commented the other day.
Johnson has a deal with the EU that is materially different from Theresa May’s. It promises a greater degree of independence from EU regulations. It is the most distant withdrawal agreement the EU could conceivably have negotiated. Farage thus only appeals to people who believe that a no-deal Brexit is both preferable and doable. If the outgoing parliament achieved one thing, though, it was to demonstrate that parliament will resist a no-deal Brexit.
Johnson is therefore the only politician who can credibly claim to get Brexit done. Remainers do not have that same clarity with Corbyn.
Johnson even has leverage to invoke a WTO Brexit (but with a deal), if Farage does not F things up.
The EU would rather deal than not. That much is proven.
Eurointelligence Take Today – Useful Idiots
The big event today is Nigel Farage’s campaign launch, during which he will explain the Brexit Party’s electoral strategy. The question is whether the party will wage a nationwide campaign or fight selected seats, say 100. The Tories are not necessarily thrilled by Farage pulling his people out of most constituencies. They think of him as the usual idiot, strong enough to have an impact on pro-Brexit Labour supporters but not strong enough to win seats outright. In some constituencies, especially in the north, it would be useful to offer pro-Brexit Labour voters a choice of two Brexit supporting parties. They are not natural Tory voters, and we don’t think that the Workington Man episode has improved the Tories’ standing in those rugby-league constituencies of the north.
The Tories and the Brexit party are gaming all sorts of scenarios right now. They are separately assessing how best to channel the Leave vote. We think that they might be over-gaming it. There will no doubt be more tactical voting than before, but there are limits to tactical voting and there is a danger that people simply miscalculate. We should not forget that Labour Remainers are very angry about the LibDem’s recent switch in strategy. But we should also remember that hard-core Remainers probably do not find the Labour Party or Corbyn sufficiently reliable.
I favor No Deal.
The political reality is No Deal was not possible.
Is it possible now?
Yes.
Ironically, No Deal is still possible assuming Farage does not mess things up.
Farage would be better placed to attempt to get a WTO Brexit or trade deal to his liking than making a mess to suit his ego.
Too Early to Read
It’s too early to read much into this.
Yesterday, Farage hinted he would pull back, today he is making preposterous demands.
Are they real?
Who the hell knows? I sure don’t.
But even if they are, it is not necessarily bad.
How So?
Even if Farage fields candidates everywhere, how aggressively will he support them?
Unless Farage is an outright idiot, most of Brexit Party money will go to elections he actually believes he can win.
Big Egos Need Smoothing
If Johnson believe he needs to cut a deal with Farage to win, he will do so. One possible compromise would be to ensure Farage that a WTO deal is in play.
Of course it is, anyway. But perhaps Farage just wants Johnson to reach out to him privately. Big egos need smoothing.
Addendum
Steve Baker, the Conservative MP who chairs the European Research Group, which represents hardline Tory Brexiters, has accused Nigel Farage of putting Brexit at risk. Echoing comments by his ERG colleague Mark Francois. Baker told the Press Association:
The reason every Conservative Eurosceptic MP backed the deal is that it can deliver aBrexitworth having.But Boris will only negotiate a great future for the UK if he has a good majority of resolute Conservative MPs.
Nigel now risks that and our future. It is completely inconceivable that the Conservative party would now go for no deal and a pact.
Is Nigel a statesman or a campaigner? We are about to find out.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Well oh well, this was something of great importance indeed if you ask me. That is why I tell my team in Jacksonville (https://jacksonvillemoldremovalservices.com) to make every action after great thought.
An hour ago Jean Claude Juncker (know the guy right ?) stuck his neck out and agreed with me. Any skeptics left ?
Boris´ problems and Boris´ image are both his own.
If he negotiated BRINO for whatever reasons he had that´s not our fault.
Nigel Farage will not sell out 17.4 million voters and whatever the outcome will just go for the top prize at 10 Downing Street.
If that eventually means yet again a new deadlock at a yet again hung Parliament so be it. Throwing 17.4 million voters under the bus is not Farage´s style, is it ?
I´m convinced that by Jan. 31, 2020 there won´t be ANY Brexit deal passed by the new UK Parliament.
Jeremy Corbyn confirmed the above with his 6-month horizon, pain-free, utterly fuzzy Brexit announcement.
That´d mean yet another NEW Brexit deadline postponement that I just don´t see Macron´s EU approving after the Dec. 12 election they allowed for.
So the EU (not the UK) would be ensuring a NO-deal Brexit by default on Jan 31, 2020.
If Boris were to accept Nigel’s pre-condition & boot the deal that Boris himself negotiated, it would make Boris look identical to Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn: Remember that Labour’s plan for Brexit is to craft a “better” Brexit deal & then campaign against it during a 2d referendum.
Farage got the UK this far. He knows what he’s doing. Boris is just another sell out like the rest. The elites have no intention of representing those who vote for them.
Another take:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/farages-high-risk-strategy-brexit
“Mike Shedlock thinks Farage’s deal is “Preposterous.” Mike is wrong. It is the only offer Farage could offer the Tories and stay in any way relevant in a time of electoral chaos and party fluidity.
It is the kind of ‘big ask’ that his friend Donald Trump would make. It may be an opening bid in a complex negotiation that ends with them making a pact towards the end of the campaign.
Frankly that only happens if the polls shift considerably from where they are.
Politics is not a game for the timid or the weak. If Farage is to be a big player in British politics he needs to act like he is a big player in British politics.
…….
Hard core Leavers like Marc Francois and Steven Baker, prominent members of the ERG — European Research Group — are on board with the deal and have called out Farage as lying about it.
But, arguing that these guys being on board with Boris’ treaty means it’s a good deal is simply appeal to authority while missing the much larger point.
The Tories are the main mechanism by which the British Deep State and political elite maintain control over not only British policy, but also that of the U.S. and much of Europe. Don’t for a second think that these ERG guys are any less compromised in the end than the outright Remainers like Ken Clarke, Dominik Grieve or Philip Hammond.”
Zero H excerpted it from this:
https://moneyandmarkets.com/how-brexit-will-end/
Something, I don’t think anyone is considering is that Boris is a fake “Leaver”. He has had several opportunities to push back against all the craziness tried by his opposition and hasn’t, now with him not wanting to negotiate with the Brexit party to ensure a swift exit from the EU I have to questions whether he really wants to leave the EU.
If you don’t have the Pro-Brexit parties working together, you are going to get more of the same and ultimately Brexit never happens. If the parties involved are not willing to make sure the composition of their Parliament insures they regain their Sovereignty; then they might as well just accept being a vassal of the EU now. Why go through 3 to 10 more years of hand wringing and posturing for no reason. Save yourself the pain.
Yes! BoJo’s a sell out like the rest. All this hoohah is just meant to divide and conquer the people.
One person has been ignored here – the Donald.
If he believes a trade deal is impossible with the WA then that question must be answered. As a brexiteer I would prefer no brexit at all then a crippled one since no brexit makes it more likely to get a WTO later on.
Personally I suspect the polls have been fixed at this stage, will wait a couple of weeks.
I agree. Bojo and the Tories better know what them doing cuz it´s perfectly possible after all is said and done for the UK to find itself in the worse of both worlds, i.e., still 50% IN the EU + 50% OUT the rest of the world.
In that case the Brexit Party would have an open political future before it with Nigel Farage as the only credible person in the UK.
My view is that by having this election in return to rule out a pact with TBP is part of the whole complex deal that BJ made with EU (long before that phone call with Macron that Mish wrote about).
Otherwise, how could anyone think that EU and UK opposition would give this election to BJ as a Christmas present when they could easily prolong this agony in the Parliament until May 2022.
I am puzzled that very few can see how suddenly we have an election when just a few weeks ago it looked impossible, as well as any kind of a deal.
Obviously, no politician is saying this openly, which is understandable.
UK opposition now has all sorts of reasons why they suddenly support an election.
It is all about saving face.
As someone asked earlier about good articles that compare May’s and BJ’s deals, here is a good one:
As I wrote earlier, I would prefer a no-deal, but I don’t think it was realistic at this point.
I like Nigel. Nigel did a lot to bring us here, and I hope he knows that BJ can’t do a pact, and I also hope that TBP will fight only non-Tory seats.
Milosh, so then… most probably Corbyn gets 10 Downing Street right ? And the UK and the EU get yet more years of more Brexit yada yada right ? That´d be the worst possible outcome for all involved and the Euro may not be strong enough to take it methinks.
Corbyn has no chance.
Milosh, so you are saying that Corbyn has NO CHANCE and that Bojo wins with the Brexit Party 100% against him, right ?
You also say… ” They [the EU] could have waited for months and left BJ high and dry ” despite the fact that the EU also loses enormously (probably more than the UK) with postponement and/or NO DEAL… hmmm.
Perhaps the caption to the Thornberry / Corbyn photo should be ‘Clueless Git embraces Defacto Labour Leader – work out which is which’.
“And the UK and the EU get yet more years of more Brexit yada yada right ?”
The alternative was having hung Parliament and uncertainty until election in May 2022 which would bring us to this point.
I’m not saying that this deal is ideal, but is acceptable to build onto it in the years to come.
As I wrote in my post a few days ago, EU accepted to revise May’s deal (and election) as BJ showed them that he could do no-deal. Why would they do it if he didn’t? They could have waited for months and left BJ high and dry.
But EU is so strong in UK that they would make such a mess in the UK post Brexit if there was no-deal. Why risk it. As we saw they have 5th column in UK Parliament, media and SC on their side. There is probably more in their arsenal that we haven’t seen yet.
Thanks for the article Milosh. Something to chew over.
My view is that by having this election in return to rule out a pact with TBP is part of the whole complex deal that BJ made with EU (long before that phone call with Macron that Mish wrote about).
Otherwise, how could anyone think that EU and UK opposition would give this election to BJ as a Christmas present when they could easily prolong this agony in the Parliament until May 2022.
I am puzzled that there are few who can see how suddenly we have an election when just a few weeks ago it looked impossible,as well as any kind of a deal.
Obviously, no politician is saying this openly, which is understandable.
UK opposition now has all sorts of reasons why they suddenly support an election.
It is all about saving face.
As someone asked earlier about good articles that compare May’s and BJ’s deals, here is a good one:
As I wrote earlier, I would like no-deal, but I don’t think it is realistic at this point.
I like Nigel. Nigel did a lot to bring us here, and I hope he knows that BJ can’t do a pact, and I also hope that TBP will fight only non-Tory seats.
Farage did nothing preposterous. He has been consistent for months that BJ must do a clean break Brexit or negotiate a deal that met the criteria Farage consistently sets forth. Pay attention! Boris’s BRINO treaty met none of those criteria.
Farage is being extremely consistent by walking away from Boris. He should. Brexit Party is obviously the only Brexit option.
Bojo took NO-deal off the table, the war is on.
Hung Parliament assured, yet again.
Back to square one, full-rewind, same gridlock, only with no Bercow ordaaaaa.
Will Britons swallow Bojo´s BRINO ?
Can the EU put up with this, even for years to come ?
God save the UK and the EU from themselves.
Mish, “preposterous”, why so ?
General elections mean re-set.
If Bojo were to accept Nigel´s proposal it would be just another of his typical change-of-mind manouvers… same as throwing the DUP under the bus. This is British politics and Boris the gambling clown.
Mr. Brexit´s no-nonsense NO-deal proposal sounds and smells trustworthy.
The jelly-like Boris and his “fuzzy deal” do not.
Voters are fed up.
Mind you, tories start off 40 seats down. But even if the Tories “won”, the Brexit Party would have lots to input. For starters, Bojo´s “fuzzy deal” (not) means years of negotiation with Michel Barnier on the other side.
Candidates matter.
Voters are visceral and on highly divisive occasions such as this one the ballot box is mostly ruled by candidates.
A good or bad candidate makes it or breaks it.
Leavers are fed up already and will not be attracted to vote for Corbyn and his most confusing and uncertain strategy + 2 referenda (yes, add the Scottish independence).
Confused enough, for Leavers it´s either Bojo (if they care to believe him) or Nigel Farage with an unequivocal party mandate (clean Brexit) and with the right party name.
Bojo is perceived as an unpredictable clown pushing a so-called “deal” (not) with lipstick on May´s pig who flip-flops per the occassion. In case of doubt ask the DUP.
Traditional Labor voters will never vote for Bojo but could certainly vote for Farage.
Farage is perceived as Mr. Brexit.
The Tories do not have a unified leadership nor clear Brexit proposal.
Farage is an excellent and relentless campaigner who will expose the Tory non-strategy naked.
“The Tories do not have a unified leadership nor clear Brexit proposal.”
That’s why I think there should be a few good in-depth articles about the differences between the May and Johnson WA’s, including why the ERG are behind the latest one. This would clarify the Tory position on Brexit, for I agree that unless and until they do so, they are in a weakened position viz. the electorate.
That said, they have been involved in vicious, arcane parliamentary trench warfare, unprecedented in nature. Once the dust from that clears – in a few days probably – this rather talented Cabinet can focus on the campaign, and I expect better communication from them to hammer their message home, because part of their core message is that they have a clear vision and a clear path forward, whereas everyone else doesn’t.
Having an argument with Farage and BXP will actually be healthy and helpful IF the current WA is good. If it is as terrible as Farage says, then the entire Tory case crumbles or becomes a emotional judgment call. But again: if the ERG really are on board, my bet is that they will be able to make that case and make it well. At which point, most Faragistas – who are also tired of the whole thing – will back down, and the Tories will go forward in a much-strengthened way able to demonstrate that they can take the country forward, whereas their opponents are nit-picking ditherers and delayers.
Should get a very solid majority and then the country can move forward finally.
But this Farage business is key: they have to make a solid case that The Deal is a good one. They didn’t yet. That has to happen.
“Is Farage a statesman or a campaigner?” I think we all know the answer to that question. Much like the Orange man and Butane Honey Oil that preceded Orange Man, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain here
Haha, it seems like we are disagreeing again Mish. LOL!
I think it’s an excellent idea of Farage to ‘keep BoJo honest’ because Nigel was the Very Orginal Driving Force behind Brexit in the first place.
Furthermore, I think you’re seriously underestimating the political divide across traditional party lines when it comes to Brexit, and additionally, I think you’re seriously underestimating how FED UP people are with ‘politics as usual,’ especially after the charade of Tories and Labour of the past 3,5 years of trying to sabotage the Vote of the People.
The threat of fragmenting/breaking the two-party system with a big populist 3rd party movement can perhaps achieve miracles, just like AfD has caused shockwaves in Germany, PVV and FvD have caused shockwaves in The Netherlands and similar effects have been felt in Italy and Spain.
The problem lies MUCH deeper than ‘just Brexit’ and Farage (now) knows this, as this can perhaps be interpreted of Farage correcting his mistake of quitting politics after the June 2016 Brexit referendum and naively trusting the traditional parties of sticking to their promises to honour the referendum results.
Brexit needs a big push in the back and a renewed driving force, and Farage can hopefully provide this.
Go Nigel!
Sh!t, I accidentally “liked” my own reply. Please ignore, I didn’t know I only had to hoover with the mouse over the heart symbol in order to see who liked my post. 🤭
Edit: Ah, by tapping/clicking it again, I removed my “like.”
Farage doesn’t want a Tory majority in Westminster. Why? Because he is a career politician and plays for power. He feeds on Brexit uncertainty. It doesn’t really matter if there is a pact or there isn’t. Johnson needs a majority on his own to have at least a little chance of successful government.
Current poll numbers suggest that the Tories might get a majority alone. They have to protect those numbers. Can they handle Farage? I am not sure.
As Theresa May learned well, current poll numbers now don´t matter much, only by December
As far as I am concerned, it’s No Deal or I don’t give a damn.
A deal doesn’t get Britain out of the EU, but it does get Farage out of it. That appears to be the Macron-Johnson deal. Maybe Farage has figured this out. Most Tory parliament members are (closet) Bremainers. Only those who voted for No Deal at least once should be regarded as true Brexiteers. A closet Bremainer parliament could keep things just the way they are now for years or even decades.
BoJo is a warmonger (and mass murderer IMAO) in cahoots with neocons in the US – the same ones who are trying to take out Trump or at least stop Trump from doing good things like getting US out of Syria and making peace in Korea and ending sanctions on Russia. BoJo certainly knows something about the Skripal BS. I’d just as soon see Corbyn in there as BoJo. At least Corbyn has mentioned getting out of NATO.
If Corbyn gets in and screws up the British economy, he’ll also screw up the British government. That’s what the British need just as Americans need to have their national government screwed up (as Trump is doing).
BTW, I haven’t heard much about the sum of money Britain is going to pay the EU in Boris’ deal. The last I heard, it was still over £35b (> £500/UK citizen).
Anda, you prove my point.
You say… “As best I understand….” + “In theory that means…” + “It is a matter of trust…” + “Presumably…” + “So far as we are aware…” + etc which confirms the wishy-washy nature of this pure-vintage Bojo “deal” (not) meaning different things to different people let alone the ECJ.
What the new withdrawal agreement means ?
As best I understand it it provides a one year transition without a default to remain in customs union if there is no agreement on Ireland or other. That is extendable on request by UK for a further two years. All of thar is presumably within timeframe of next parliament. Ireland is left a bit in limbo.
In theory that means next parliament could rewrite and extend even more, in theory also parliament could declare all agreement with EU void as well if it so chose. So it is a question of trust again, and whether a transition period is acceptable to anyone. Presumably after transition UK law will be own and sovereignty will be de facto complete. In practice the transition might be a weakness, cost more (or less), leave EU laws more entrenched in British law by transcription and so on. So it is not a small deal either, it is a choice and an approach to Brexit. Bill Cash is a constitutional lawyer, and very eurosceptic, if he sees it as fit ( even though not perfect) I am inclined to believe him.
Then there are those who think it is too soft, I think they maybe exagerate the transition commitments to being indefinite, but they have a point in that at the least what they criticise might in various cases be quietly transcribed to UK policy. So there as a whole we are partly in the unknown whether Brexit or WA.
So I’ll include the sceptic voices here because their concerns need answering in my opinion :
You’ll note there is a playoff between wider international lines of influence going on as well.
In short, it all depends just as with a hard Brexit what happened next would still all depend, only on other points. Don’t ask me which is better, I would not have chosen the current circumstance, and consider the two year article fifty timeline as meaning UK has already left EU.
Thanks for yr post and the links.
Re: “Bill Cash is a constitutional lawyer, and very eurosceptic, if he sees it as fit ( even though not perfect) I am inclined to believe him.”
That’s where I am with this, too, unless and until I read convincing, detailed arguments against.
I’ve felt since May’s botched election in 2017 that without a clearly pro-Brexit parliament nothing could be done to effect a positive Brexit result, so once a changing of the Guard took place with Boris as the new Commander-in-Chief, it seemed to me that his first priority was neither Deal nor No Deal but New Parliament. What they did seems to me, in retrospect, sort of like violently shaking a tree in order to let loose as many apples as possible until finally there are enough at hand to make cider with. He got the opposition to box him in, make demands, and in turn also make some commitments, especially the one: ‘once No Deal is off the table, then we’ll have an election.’ Anyway, doesn’t matter how exactly, but he did get it done.
And after the election, assuming he wins? No Deal will be back on the table (because Parliament won’t block it any more) so the UK will finally be able to negotiate all this stuff presenting a united, pro-Brexit front, especially since most of the Remainers have been flushed out of the Tory party.
First, though, the Rotten Parliament had to be pulped and flushed. As it has been.
Jeff Taylor on Youtube seems to more or less agree with you, plus (like me) calling for more detailed coverage so we can all get a much clearer picture about this damned, elusive WA.
Interesting video Baron. To paraphrase what many seem to be saying, consideration of the WA is a bit like debating the imponderable and there is no clear cut answer – only more questions. The alternative? Why bind ourselves in endless red tape when we should simply have done with it and move on. Answer – project fear! I thought the point about the UK politicos having had a sea change from a duty of support of Britain to a duty of support of the EU was telling.
People are fed up with same-old same-old politics and politicians. The Brexit Party has enormous and unforeseen chances of succeeding with their clear NO-deal strategy led by a unifying political genius such as Nigel Farage… who could even end up having to accept the keys to 10 Downing Street.
Bojo´s wishy-washy “deal” (not) can be taken either as a Leave or as a Remain option depending upon how much it is studied and/or how well it is spinned.
I doubt Farage will get more than a handful of seats – if any. As to Farage becoming prime minister – pigs might fly and unicorns fart rainbows. He could however do phenomenal damage to BoJo. If BoJo doesn’t get this then frankly he deserves every bit he gets!
Henry V, the Theresa May experience contradicts your predictions. These are highly abnormal conditions for British politics and Bojo doesn´t even seem to be playing his poor cards well. Bojo couldn´t be a worse candidate for the occasion.
Farage has advantage over Boris – charisma and credibility which is importnant for ordinary folks, despite media trying the best to destroy it…
Well lets hope you are right Brexitologist. My tactic in a LibDem Conservative marginal … Vote Brexit Party, If no Brexit candidate, then unless there is a formally agreed Tory/BXP pact (which I very much doubt) vote tactically to deny the Tories of an easy marginal gain in this part of the world. A hung parliament is better than a Tory majority. That might mean I might have to hold my nose and vote LibDem for the first time in my 65 years.
PS – as I said, I’ve always been a Tory sympathiser but this time around I would do anything to stop the buggers.
Brexit goes far deeper. No matter what flavor of Leave or what shade of Remain is eventually adopted (GBP out, Euro in ? EU military ?) the approximately 50% of the NOW-globalized UK population will never ever agree on anything with the other 50% of NEVER-to-be-globalized UK folks. This happens elsewhere in the EU and the USA also with no possible solution, ever.
See Addendum from Steve Baker.
Steve Baker and all of ERG disagrees with the notion this is not Brexit. So do I.
Nigel is needlessly nitpicking IMO. But I look forward to Brexit Party analysis of the deal.
Regardless, I do not believe he is stupid enough to risk giving this to Labour.
I too would appreciate some good analysis on it. I respect the ERG position, though possibly they are glossing over sticking points in the document because they anticipate a different type of negotiating style going forward once there is a clear majority in a Parliament no longer dedicated to endless ‘dither and delay.’
In any case, this is a key thing for Leavers of all stripes to get a clear read on even though it could be like Trump’s taxes: mainly gobbledygook for most who read it, but providing a wealth of one-liner talking points, the sort of thing irresponsible media love spinning to death.
My impression of the ‘deal’ was that he managed to insist on the UK’s actually leaving the EU jurisdiction and charting more of a free market trading hub style course and in ways that have not been revealed (or I didn’t ‘get’), he also seems to have garnered good will amongst many leaders there to the point that they seem resigned that the UK will be leaving, but she will remain engaged in many financial, cultural and other ways despite her new-found independence. It’s never that simple, but that’s the impression I got, i.e. that it will be a real Brexit, albeit prying such freedom out of the clutches of the EU claws won’t be entirely smooth sailing.
But Mish is right I think: No Deal is back on the table – which I suspect is what Boris persuaded the EU, and perhaps is why he didn’t attack the Benn Act or the Letlose Amendment etc. – in which case they will finally begin to negotiate in good faith next year having realised that keeping the UK captive for years is unproductive if for no other reason than she could kick up such an obstructive fuss as to make Farage look positively tame in comparison.
Farage’s ultimate aim is the destruction of the EU. A clean break by the UK would damage the EU significantly, maybe fatally. BUT (big but), the UK is symptomatic, not the end game. Any deal like BoJo’s deal which provides some comfort to the EU is bad news. If he has to continue working inside the EU towards their destruction at the price of a Labour victory, then so be it. That’s my take.
I dot not think Labor can win, instead, Tori’s majority can be lower if any resulting in a hung parlament.
Yes
Something, I don’t think anyone is considering is that Boris is a fake “Leaver”. He has had several opportunities to push back against all the craziness tried by his opposition and hasn’t, now with him not wanting to negotiate with the Brexit party to ensure a swift exit from the EU I have to questions whether he really wants to leave the EU.
If you don’t have the Pro-Brexit parties working together, you are going to get more of the same and ultimately Brexit never happens. If the parties involved are not willing to make sure the composition of their Parliament insures they regain their Sovereignty; then they might as well just accept being a vassal of the EU now. Why go through 3 to 10 more years of hand wringing and posturing for no reason. Save yourself the pain.
Correct! The ‘deal’ on the table superficially looks like a great improvement, but actually ties the UK into the customs union for an extended period, ensures regulatory and taxation alignment, and the supremacy of the ECJ. If May had presented it, it would have been voted down. It is also only a starting point- there will next be years of attempting to negotiate a free trade deal! There has not been sufficient legal opinion on what it means yet, which would help to disambiguate for people who are just believing what they are told without investigating.
just musing …..it s a pity Boris and John Bercow didn ‘t get along better …..I would ve sworn they used to see each other at the hairdresser’s on a regular basis….
We have May’s deal fercryingoutloud. May’s deal with a sodding great border down the Irish Sea.
“May’s deal with a sodding great border down the Irish Sea.”
Exactly – the bit the DUP hate. They, understandably from their viewpoint, see the Boris deal as worse than the May deal – the Boris deal let’s the rest of the U.K. out of the backstop and leaves N.I. hanging in there, probably indefinitely until a point comes where they are more “Irish” than “British”.
The problem for the DUP is that most Brits would happily say goodbye to N.I., with or without Brexit.
100% agree!
Farage is just a bomb thrower with a desperate need to be the center of attention.
The big risk for Boris is a hung parliament. The whole “will of the people” argument from the Brexiteers will be in tatters if more people vote for the “Remain” parties than the “Leave” parties, especially if nobody wins an outright majority.
It’ll be interesting to see if Boris needs the DUP again – if he does, dust of May’s deal, because it is top of the pile again.
“It’ll be interesting to see if Boris needs the DUP again – if he does, dust of May’s deal, because it is top of the pile again.”
This is also a potential No Deal scenario
Most of the Tory Remainers will have been purged.
Johnson will give Labour a His Deal or Hard Brexit choice
Someone will reluctantly take his deal
You know what a nit-picker I am. The Brexit ” party” is not a party. It is a registered public limited company. It has members/former members of the Revolutionary Communist Party of Great Britain among its elected members. There is a lot of rum stuff to come out if the Tories want to cut up rough, and there is no reason to suggest they won’t. That said it is a bit shocking isn’t it? The liar is in trouble in his campaign. You may remember that the liar is in trouble on the NHS. Yesterday he was booed in Addenbrooke hospital and had to leave toute suite. The MSM did not report the booing but it is all over the internet. Perhaps Farage thinks he can supplant the Tories? Frommy point of view this is good news.
It will be an ‘interesting’ campaigning period up to the election- could be many swings in different directions depending on what gets revealed.
Avid you stretch to truth to complete silliness.
“The liar is in trouble”
1: Please look at the polls and the trends in the polls.
2: Anecdotes from sorry remainers in a hospital do not constitute data
Mish, the reason I got confused about the poll you published was that it was a carbon copy of the polls on 06/06/17. It was not a few sorry remainers it was staff, patients and visitors. How long is it since you told me to give up? I’m still going.
From the BBC. People listen to what this guy says …
“ Polling expert Sir John Curtice says it is “unlikely” that the Brexit Party standing in the election would do more harm to Labour than to the Conservatives.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s World At One, he says opinion polls suggest that most of the Brexit Party’s support comes from former Tory voters.
He says: “If you look at those constituencies that the Conservatives want to pick up – the 50 most marginal Labour seats – they are disproportionately Leave seats.
“And they are places where UKIP did well in 2015.
“The odds are that these are therefore places where the Brexit Party can be expected to do particularly well.”
Meanwhile, he says that attempts to convince Remain voters to vote tactically against the Conservatives reflects “the fact that the Remain vote is split”.
He adds that in constituencies which voted to leave the EU, the majority of Labour voters backed Remain.
“So even there Labour’s problem is the Liberal Democrats, not necessarily Nigel Farage,” he says.”
Farage thinks a Canada style agreement is the way to go, and that is why he wanted the delay as he envisages it could all be put together by next Summer. Don’t ask me whether there is any merit in the Canada agreement – I am no expert in these matters. Anyway ‘ditch the withdrawal agreement’, whilst maybe preposterous, is for real and a point of principle which puts Farage in a head-on collision with Johnson.
I confess I haven’t read the detail of Boris’ withdrawal agreement but from the vibes I have been picking up, I suspect it leaves everything on the table for future negotiation … and with every probability that the UK will sell itself down the river. AGAIN! Maybe that is the way that all negotiations start; nothing ruled in, nothing ruled out. But I don’t like it one little bit and would have preferred to start with a clean break and taken our time to look at the trade side.
“From the BBC. People listen to what this guy says …
“ Polling expert Sir John Curtice says it is “unlikely” that the Brexit Party standing in the election would do more harm to Labour than to the Conservatives.”
BBC = leftwing propaganda.
This is a typical ‘tactic’ of The Establishment: deny deny deny using “poling/financial experts,” and then ‘suddenly’ there is this ‘surprise’ election result or a stock market crash, just like when Trump got elected, just when people voted for Brexit, and the financial system nearly collapsed in 2008.
And then of course, when reality hits and the people and financial markets have spoken, those same ‘experts’ exclaim; “nobody saw this coming…” and “we could never have foreseen these extraordinary events.” LOL!
I agree with both of BaronAsh’s comments (one in reply to himself).
We simply do not know Farage’s intent. I did say …
Significant damage to the Tories assumes Farage is silly enough to carry through with his threat and in the worst possible manner.
I assume otherwise.
(I reply to myself because sometimes there is no blank comment window).
From the Telegraph about NF:
” The element of the agreement that does outline some thoughts on the future relationship is the Political Declaration. This is an aspirational, non-legal document. It states that the EU and the UK intend to strike “a free trade agreement” and will treat one another as “third countries”. This is clear terminology. It means we will strike a deal in the mould of Canada’s agreement with the EU – the sort of deal that Mr Farage says he wants.
As Angela Merkel has stated, this aspect of Mr Johnson’s deal is very clear and very different from Theresa May’s. Whereas before “it was not clear… whether there would be membership of the customs union”, now “it is quite clear that Great Britain will be a third country”. A “third country” is EU jargon for an independent sovereign state that is outside the rules of the customs union and single market. This makes obvious sense. Why, after all, would Mr Johnson have gone to the trouble of quitting government, kicking out Mrs May, reopening the Withdrawal Agreement and risking a general election if he was perfectly happy with the rule-taking arrangements she negotiated? And why would the Tory party’s most pro-Brexit MPs have supported him?
Despite Berlin being crystal clear on what Mr Johnson intends, however, Mr Farage is apparently still confused. Speaking yesterday, he referred repeatedly to the idea that the withdrawal deal forces the UK to remain in “regulatory alignment” with Brussels. This also appeared to be the misconception shared by Mr Trump when he said that it makes a US-UK trade deal impossible.
It is a peculiar one, because the Political Declaration actually only mentions the word “alignment” once, where it says that the scale of the trade deal Britain can strike is conditional upon “the commitments the UK is willing to make… to alignment of rules”. In other words: if you are prepared to obey our rules, we might give you more market access. To interpret this framing of the negotiating trade-offs as some kind of binding promise to become subject to all EU law is, at best, ignorant and, at worst, maliciously dishonest.”
Seems to me (again), that more analysis of the deal and clarifications in the media etc. could be very helpful in facilitating the bringing together of most of the Leavers. The clearer and more assertive they can be throughout the campaign, the more all their opponents will shrink in importance and relevance.
Another possibility:
although it’s normal to project the individual character of the leader as the main driving force of a movement, of course the leader’s job is often that of herding cats. Possibly Farage is herding his own cats by ensuring that some sort of credible Brexit is in the offing.
For example: to meet Farage’s challenge today, all that needs to be done is a more in-depth analysis of ‘The Deal’ showing that the ERG statements about it countering Farage’s offer are solid, credible, convincing. If they can convince Leavers that this IS a credible form of Brexit – which has yet to be done – then Farage can join his population with the Tories.
However, if the Tories fail to communicate more clearly about what they are offering, his BXP population can help oblige them into becoming more persuasive.
I have no idea if his motivations are petty or not, wise or foolish, but I do know that the case for Boris’ deal being bona fide Brexit has not yet been made. And am fairly certain Farage wants Brexit. So he can use his people as leverage to ensure, as far as possible, that Brexit is finally achieved, both in Parliament and in Brussels.
PS: Boris rejecting the offer which also came from Trump, makes him look less like a Trump patsy, which is one of the most cutting arguments against him mantra’d by Corbyn, and more like a Great British Bulldog statesman who can stand up to Uncle Sam. It’s a good look.
(Like you said, there could be a lot of orchestration here, i.e. scripted conflict/drama – like the Mooch turning on him in the US, or K-A Conway’s hubby etc.)
I agree with both of BaronAsh’s comments (one in reply to himself).
We simply do not know Farage’s intent. I did say …
Significant damage to the Tories assumes Farage is silly enough to carry through with his threat and in the worst possible manner.
I assume otherwise.
Mish, I am a Brexit party member- do you want me to forward you some of their emails about their stated position on the deal? They did their legal analysis of it as soon as it came out and stated their position at the time. Farage’s speech is 100% in alignment with the Brexit Party position of several days ago- this ‘deal’ is not Brexit in any way. The language is somewhat convoluted, but ties the UK back in, where it appears superficially to grant freedoms.
Yes, please send me the analysis.
Thanks
BTW if I do not respond it is because I missed your email. I get hundreds day.
Send again
I went back and found I deleted that particular email- but the same information is on the Brexit Party website. This content is the same as the email they sent out more than 2 weeks ago: https://www.thebrexitparty.org/read-this/
Thanks for that link. It seems to me that many of the problems are with the EU jurisdiction still in place during the transition period. But there are others intimating that in terms of fishing especially and future trade relations that we might be trapped under such jurisdiction forevermore.
These issues need some further analysis and robust debate. There is a potential sea-change in the works, in that within 2 months the UK might have a pro-Brexit Government with a working majority in a pro-Brexit parliament. This will make a huge difference to the UK’s posture and clout in any future trade negotiations. I expect nearly all of it to be hammered out by end of 2020 with no extension needed, thus lessening the dangers during the transition period.
In terms of the longer term issues, wouldn’t be surprised to see Boris betraying the fishery industry because it is a big bargaining chip with which to leverage full extrication viz. trade and ECJ. However, hopefully the UK will retain overall legal jurisdiction of her own waters and an Act of Parliament later could change any such deal as long as they put a sunset clause in, like 10 years or something. They can also specifically forbid vessels over a certain tonnage from operating in UK waters and/or put in a quote limit which is determined by UK Gov.
The UK will end up free to make trade arrangements with any other nation or bloc. However – and one of the main reasons there have to be negotiations – for trade from UK into EU, all products entering will have to accord with EU quality controls, tariffs and so forth. They may also insist on penalties or tariffs from EU companies locating in the UK to take advantage of UK trade arrangements, so that sort of thing will be a continuous bone of contention for years to come, Deal or No Deal.
The rest though – the jurisdictional issue – I expect Boris’s government to overcome. The UK will be out and fully independent.
If I was Farage, I would make a big deal of the fisheries. It’s a clear and present danger; it’s specific; it involves real people and national sovereignty. Ideally, the UK should get her own waters back fully and completely no ifs, ands, or buts.
And also the 39 billion payment. The government should answer: what is it for? Why do we have to pay it?
Hopefully the election will force a good national conversation about such things, because the country would benefit greatly therefrom and whatever the election result, the winners will have a clearer mandate.
What if the BP biggest achievement ends up being the revocation of article 50?
Do you mean the revocation of the triggering of article 50 by UK Gov? Well, that happens if a majority of MPs vote for it- which, I would think if it happens after a general election, represents the will of the people. Hopefully the makeup of UK Gov will be more representative this time round. I don’t think revocation is likely, I think WTO Brexit is a more likely outcome. If Labour get in we’ve got bigger problems than Brexit- we’ll be off to the Communist Republic of UK!
Exactly! Is Farage willing to make Corbyn PM in the pursuit of an unachievable no-deal?
What about the armed forces issue? Is it an issue? I genuinely don’t know the implications Baron, but hear the disquiet in some quarters. Not happy having our fisheries up for grabs AND the potential for Northern Ireland being hived off, AND a 39B payment, AND supremacy of EU law for two years AND a big question mark over our armed forces JUST to get to the negotiating table. Inclined to say bolloxtoem and on earth is BoJo playing at? But I will read up further to try to convince myself otherwise.
Yes, agree with all these points Baron and Henry; we’ve been suffering from The happy-dappy media approach for the last month. We need to see detailed and rigorous assessment of this ‘deal’ (treaty) so people can actually make up their minds. Now that the parliamentary chicanery is set aside temporarily, we have a clear run at the election which will be 98% about Brexit details. I believe it’s all up for grabs- for the first time in over 100 years there are four parties that can win large numbers of seats depending on how it plays out. Just really hoping for clarity on this deal’s details.