It’s easy to see that Boris Johnson and the Tories have a lead. But is it 4% or 17%?
Is YouGov right or Opinium? What about Survation?
This is not the right way of looking at things. You can go mad watching these results seemingly jump all over the place.
Some of these pollsters are going to be way off the mark.
Theresa May was supposed to win in a blowout but she barely hung on.
Missing the Picture
In regards to Theresa May, nearly what everyone missed was the trend heading into election day.
While most of the polls had the Tories winning, the trends were decidedly moving towards Labour in the last couple weeks before the election.
That was a very ominous sign for the Tory party.
Had the election been a week later she may have lost. Had the election been a week earlier, she may not have needed DUP to survive.
Trends
What are the trends?
There seems to be a lot of give and take if you aimlessly follow the latest polls.
However, the trends are very clear if you plot by pollster.
Tory Party Poll Trends
Data for my charts is from Wikipedia.
The range of the most recent Tory polls is 34-41%.
All six of the pollsters have the Tory party gradually and consistently gaining strength.
Labour Party Poll Trends
The range the six most recent Labour polls is 21-29%.
Four of six polling organizations suggest support for Labour is stagnant. The other two say support for Labour is rising, but not as steeply as support for the Tories.
ComRes shows a rising trend for Labour, but it from October 10 and is thus very stale.
One bad print from ComRes will have 5 of 6 stagnant trends for Labour.
Clustering
- The six most recent polls for Labour average 24.17%
- The six most recent polls for Tories average 37.17%
That’s an average lead of 13%, easily enough for a Tory landslide.
Leave or Remain?
YouGov Poll Trends say people support Remain.
But check out another YouGov poll.
No Deal and No Corbyn
By a 48% to 35% margin, Britons would rather have No Deal and no Corbyn than Corbyn.
That poll is from August 17, 2019 and might easily be more skewed against Corbyn today.
My trend charts support that determination.
Electoral Calculus
Electoral Calculus had it this way in September.
“Our regular month-end poll of polls shows an average Conservative lead of seven per cent over Labour. This is just enough for a small majority in the House of Commons, which is the headline prediction above.”
Electoral Calculus October 30
“Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 25 Oct 2019“
That is a stunning victory for Johnson even without a Brexit Party alliance.
National Polls
It’s important to not overemphasize support for Remain.
This is not a national election.
London would overwhelmingly vote Remain, but London business leaders certainly do not want Corbyn.
National polls don’t count in a first-past-the-post regional voting system. This is what Hillary Clinton found out in spades.
These Brexit trends can change at any time, but there is no particular reason to believe they will.
Like it or not, voters are getting more comfortable with Johnson, and Johnson has business on his side.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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Mish, listen to this chat between Nigel Farage and Rod Liddle and fast forward to ~ 28:00:
Listen to Nigel’s words;
“…somebody comes in and fills the gap…”@28 :30.@28 :43.@28 :59.@29 :20.@29 :44.@29 :57.
“…we reset the political debate and the agenda…”
“…but we’re an incredible threat…”
“…I think we reached a point…when Johnson and his strategists when faced with the next general election…realise one thing: they simply can’t win…without some accommodation.”
“…Boris needs to win/gain 50 seats…where are they coming from?”
“…a deal with me can give him that…”
And there you go Mish, that is the outline of what you called Farage’s “Preposterous Brexit Alliance Demand.”
My reply is again not showing… I’ll see if I can copy paste what I wrote earlier.
Mish, listen to this chat between Nigel Farage and Rod Liddle (dated October 6th) and fast forward to ~ 28:00:
Listen to Nigel’s words;
*) “…somebody comes in and fills the gap…”@28 :30.
*) “…we reset the political debate and the agenda…”@28 :43.
*) “…but we’re an incredible threat…”@28 :59.
*) “…I think we reached a point…when Johnson and his strategists when faced with the next general election…realise one thing: they simply can’t win…without some accommodation.”@29 :20.
*) “…Boris needs to win/gain 50 seats…where are they coming from?”@29 :44.
*) “…a deal with me can give him that…”@29 :57.
And there you go Mish, that is the outline of what you called Farage’s “Preposterous Brexit Alliance Demand.”
I’m a leaver and I’m less comfortable with Johnson. Not only is the real nature of the current deal unanalysable before the final trade deal is revealed in 3 years’ time, but Johnson wants to massively step up African and Asian migration. What part of “no globalism” doesn’t he get?
When I wrote my comment, I had no idea BJ was going to eliminate No Deal Brexit from his platform later today. I figured BJ would keep lying that No Deal was still a possibility in order to hide his Remain view. Wow, if you still don’t understand the Tories are Remainers yet, you are extremely naive.
Brexit Party will pick up dramatically in the polls in the next 6 weeks and earn a good number of seats in the election.
You always refer to Britons instead of English men. The English can have their nationalism but the Scots will have theirs too. It’s quite possible SNP sweeps every seat in Scotland. Good riddance finally to the UK. Alba gu brath!
Be careful what you wish for Jimmy!
That will be a relief to the English I must say. The leaner vs lifter ratio will improve markedly as a result.
Please excuse posting here with this post of yours I did not know where to put it
Are you asking about gold? That is the article that came up?
Hi Mish please don’t post this I am requesting if could do a quick tutorial for me and a number of my friends herein nYC. First I am a professional composer coming late to the news both political and financial. Could explain for us the bloomberg article:
Is it true our dollar will collapse and are other countries immune to our economy as well and are we immune to theirs.
EG
Brexit Party is the only vote for Leavers, so the trend will favor this party the most. 11% and 0 seats will look like a joke in 6 weeks.
Voting Lib Dem, Labor or Conservative are voting for 3 different versions of Remain.
BJ’s treaty is probably the worst, since in order to even commence negotiations for any trade deal, the UK is forced to be totally aligned with the EU! All BJ did was agree to pay Billions upon Billions to follow all EU rules for at least 3 more years, with absolutely no UK say in the EU rules, and BJ even hived off Northern Ireland to boot! All this just to sit down at the table to negotiate a trade deal with any country on earth? He calls this Brexit? Madness!
This will come out over the next 6 weeks as the electorate starts to understand BJ’s BRINO Treaty.
In 2017, the trend started to tilt against May after the election was called.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
Not to disparage your persistent work, Mish, but we have to wait and get updates as the campaign goes on.
“That’s an average lead of 13%, easily enough for a Tory landslide.”
A Tory landslide means Johnson gets whatever deal he wants and that most definitely will not be No Deal.
Mish figured out that Johnson & Macron were negotiating. But what did they agree on? Any Brexit deal seems good for Macron as he gets rid of Brits like Farage in the EU parliament and even a few more seats for France. But Macron surely doesn’t want No Deal Brexit and it is quite likely that, whatever deal Boris made with Macron, it excludes No Deal Brexit.
I hope the Brexit Party puts a spanner in the (Tory) works.
And make Corbyn PM?
Farage is too smart to do that. And besides, BoJo is a warmonger allied with US warmongers. I’m sick of the killings and destruction that both my government and the UK governments are guilty of. A dose of economy-destroying socialism is what many in both countries deserve.
Styx says around 5 mins that the EU should pony up what they owe and be prepared for several years poor economy as the globalists make it hard for them to make a go of it. Since there is a globalists vs nationalist struggle going on right now, this makes sense. (Also why Trump is chomping at the bit to expand the Maritime Axis by positing the English-Speaking element within as the core (UK, USA, India = almost 2 billion right there).
Styx is a sharp cookie for sure; but Europe ain’t his baillywick.
Too bad Styxhexenhammer666 doesn’t cover British politics… he nailed the 2016 US election when all of the fake pollsters tried to steer the election to Hillary.
Governments of today are nothing more than the royalty and nobility of yesterday. People don’t need more of them and we certainly could be better with a lot less of them.
I went to put in “Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 25 Oct 2019”
but it was already there.
Prediction is current (as of Oct 25)
Another take:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Screenshot-2019-11-01T180227.482-1024×674.png
(after Farage’s gambit)
Mish,
You asked about greyed out posts. I dont have any info on that but I am now seeing another problem.
There is a post by Greggg above. Now you may not see what I see, but I see that it says 2 replies.
When I expand those 2 replies, it says 0 replies.
I have taken a screenshot in case you see something different. If you need a screenshot, please tell me where to send it.
Avid Remainer – That chart is current. It also shows 2107 result.
“Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 25 Oct 2019, sampling 11,304 people.”
I do not believe any of them are wrong.
The 48-35 is not as recent as I thought however, it is from August 2019 – likely more tilted in that direction now
Wrong poll, the one you show Mish is the outcome of the 2017 election. UK pollsters are almost universally crap. They should all be forced to give the number of people who refused to be polled. It would be instructive.
which poll is wrong?
The last one, it shows the outcome of the 2017 election v predicted outcome. Unless I’m being particularly thick.
The last one shows the actual results for 2017, the current polls, and the prediction for the current election, if it were held today, unless I misunderstand it.
Thanks, it is confusing.
The last one is not a poll
Let s hope the Uk constituency realizes that the EU in its present megalomaniac form is a failed paradigm especially taking into account the imminent (a couple of years or less) social economic financial crisis which is inevitable unless miracles happen ….but I don t believe in extraterrestrials….do you?