Contrary to mainstream media reports and opposition crowing that Johnson will not deliver Brexit by October 31, today’s Brexit extension was a great result for Boris Johnson.
Heck, Johnson even phoned Macron to OK the extension as reported this morning in Brexit: Elections Likely After Johnson Calls Macron, What Happened?
Let’s tune into the Guardian Live Blog for further analysis including a discussion of an apparent loss for Johnson on early elections.
Boris Johnson fails to get enough votes to trigger early election. MPs have backed the motion by 299 votes to 70 – leaving Boris Johnson 135 votes short of the votes he needed for this division to have force. Reading out the result, John Bercow says this technically means “the noes have it”.
This failed because Johnson needs 2/3 support, including abstentions, because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
However, a one-line Bill bill to change the FTPA only requires a 50% + 1 majority.
Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, has just finished speaking now. She said that she wanted a second referendum but did not believe there was a majority for it in the Commons. That is why she wanted an early election, she said. She argued that this provided the best chance of stopping Brexit.
Corbyn appeared to rule out accepting an early election on Thursday 12 December, the government’s preferred date. He suggested this would lead to students being disenfranchised.
But he suggested that Labour could back on early election taking place on Monday 9 December (the date proposed by the Lib Dems and the SNP). But the date would have to be set in law, he said (something that would happen if MPs passed an amendment to the Fixed-term Parliament’s Act for an early election, but not if MPs used a FTPA super-majority vote to trigger one – because that mechanism would allow the PM to decide the election date.)
Key Point
The prime minister’s Brexit deal will not be brought back to this parliament. No 10 pledged to drop it in a bid to convince the SNP and the Lib Dems to support the push for a general election before Christmas.
Get Brexit Done
This setup is a huge advantage for Johnson.
He can campaign on a platform “Get Brexit Done” while the Liberal Democrats and Labour split the Remain vote.
So why would SNP and the Liberal Democrats go along?
As I pointed out previously, it was to Labour’s advantage to have Brexit settled before an election. Today, the Liberal Democrats and SNP finally came to that conclusion.
Understanding What’s Happening
- Johnson is so far ahead in the polls that he would rather gamble on elections before the Withdrawal Agreement is settled.
- The Liberal Democrats desperately need elections to pick up seats from Labour. That is their second agenda. Their first agenda, outright staying in the EU is dead.
- The Liberal Democrats “Remain” strategy blows up the moment the Withdrawal Agreement is approved.
- A Johnson win would strengthen the case for another Scottish Referendum
SNP Will Support Dec 12 IF
The SNP’s Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, told the Commons his party would support the prime minister’s new plan for a 12 December election if he gave a “cast-iron guarantee” he would not bring back the withdrawal agreement bill.
It is clear that there is a desire on the opposition benches to bring forward a bill that can give us an election. But we don’t trust this prime minister and we don’t trust this prime minister for good reason.
So, the prime minister, if he is going to bring forward a bill, must give an absolute cast-iron assurance that, up until the passage of that bill and the rising of parliament, that there will be no attempt to bring forward the withdrawal agreement bill.
January 31 is Now Moot
Does Ian mean now, later, or always?
If Ian means before an election Johnson should accept.
Regardless, any election date in December is to Johnson’s advantage.
The January 31 extension is moot if there are elections in December as now seems likely.
Moreover, “No Deal” is back in play as discussed in January Brexit Extension Increases Chance of No Deal.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
A good summary of the whole mess by Alexander Mercouris:
(p.s. Just ignore the American interviewer who can’t pronounce most of the names of the key people; “Burk-cow” “Murkel” etc.)
Well election is on for12th December.
I’d say this is for the best. Clearly a new parliament is required to handle this once and for all.
I think we all are happy there is a light at the end of the tunnel
Dec 12th it is. Majority of 418!!
What a great example of politiking. The one vote that didn’t need a 2/3rds majority got it.
Ok we r on and I’m back now n board with Boris.
Relieved that democracy is still alive. Now go out there and vote your arse off!
Johnson once said he would rather be dead in a ditch rather than see Brexit extended. Well here we are, Brexit extended till the 31. All because he thinks he can have and win a Dec12 election. If he pulls it off and passes WA, then the extension was worth it. If not, the Tories will pay a heavy price for their failure.
WTO Brexit was a dream. The reality is the Brits need Europe more than they think they do and there is very little appetite or courage among Brits for going it alone.
You cannot blame Johnson for three and a half years of delay and trampling on a people’s vote. At least he involves the public again to settle this once and for all. Whether he’ll succeed is up to the voter, isn’t it?
I think there is the appetite among Brits for going it alone; its the grassroots Tory party’s preferred option I think. There certainly isn’t the political will, least of all in Westminster.
To be precise, he said he would ‘rather be dead in a ditch than ask for an extension.’ And to a certain extent, he didn’t ask because as he accurately pointed out many times, it was Parliament that was asking, and he often informed the EU – indeed as late as last night I believe – that he did not agree with the request.
He did say ‘do or die’ for the 31st, but basically he got outplayed. That was not his doing really and in any case, it’s a figure of speech, not some sort of solemn oath. Of course his opponents will repeat this sort of thing ad infinitum, and greatly enjoy so doing. But that’s politics.
The election is going to come down to going forward into a new, independent future, or going forward into a new future that is slightly harder to envisage because of all the stumbling around that has to be gotten through first viz. the Brexit business. Boris has a simple path: get a majority, pass the Deal, move on with a new Great British future. He’s going to be hard to beat. It all depends on how infectious his humor and smile are – his optimism and panache. If it takes, he’s in. If it doesn’t, the Leave vote might get split – though tonight Farage has offered a pact again – and the mess continue. Boris will be going for a BIG WIN. At the very least, it will be a lively campaign, not at all like May’s.
I asked this question before- what happens if there are no elections set by the end of the week? What happens then? What if there are no elections set before January 31st?
No elections means the clusterf*ck continues. Fortunately, watching debates it looks as if this latest effort will succeed.
My 1st post here. Hopefully not last.
For those who think that Boris is a traitor or Remainer or that he didn’t challenge Ben Act but should, or that he failed with not delivering Brexit by 31st October, think again.
BJ’s main goal was to deliver Brexit on 31st Oct (or shortly after that) but without EU making too much trouble. The other goal was to have a majority in Parliament so he could deliver good deal with EU later on (again without much trouble from EU). In my view he seems to be achieving both.
This was done brilliantly by focusing on the main goal even though he lost a few battles that Remainers were so proud of.
Why do you think that EU accepted to open May’s deal, remove the backstop and do some more concessions when they could just sit and do nothing? Yes, because BJ convinced EU that he could use no-deal (now or later) if EU’s charade with UK’s opposition continues. EU is not stupid. They can also read polls. UK opposition too.
Another interesting question.
Why UK opposition now accepts an election when they could prolong this madness until May 2022 and when they know they would lose? Yes, it is because EU “convinced” them to accept because EU now deals with the boss (i.e. BJ). UK opposition was EU’s “useful idiots” for very long time but now is the time for EU to make a deal. UK opposition now behaves as a spoilt child and tries to play by the old EU rules but they can’t because EU now changed the rules. EU is not interested any more in supporting UK opposition. EU got what they wanted. Backstop was red herring all the time. Having seen the 5th column at their best in the Parliament, UK should be happy with this deal too.
Although I was a Remainer 3 years ago (I am not proud for my ignorance then), my preference since the referendum changed to no-deal. But EU convinced me that they are very strong player and that they could make such a mess in UK for next decades to come, I think it is better to pass this hurdle and live another day for another battle as there will be many more battles to come.
Milosh, Great comments. That might be your first post on here but I hope it isn’t your last.
I think that the Remainers turned more people like you into ‘Leavers’ because of the sheer hypocrisy and disrespect for democracy. Say about Johnson what you want, but at least he wants to continue the fight democratically, by letting the voters decide, rather than three more years of achieving absolutely f***-all by weaseling and delaying and trying to overturn a people’s vote. Assuming that you’re right, and I think you might be, that more people lost faith in camp Remain…we shall see the outcome mid-December.
Excellent post and considered thinking, Milosz. Unfortunately I am not sure that many voters will think this carefully. I sense an awful lot of leavers are really REALLY pissed off just now. I posted last night that having trawled in a couple of sites which are generally sympathetic to Boris, his support has simply dropped off a cliff. Whether he can put the argument forward quite as eloquently as yourself and win them back, or whether disenfranchised leavers will dig their heels in and vote for Farage and his crew is another matter. I maintain my view that the damage of non-delivery has been done and we may well see a weakening of support. Short of the EU themselves saying something like this (which won’t happen) I wouldn’t honestly like to call the result at the moment.
I listen toMr Farage’s program on LBC Monday thru Thursday at 18:00 UK time. There is no doubt how his limited company is going to campaign during this election and you see it in leicestersq’s contribution. Farage is absolutely not in the liars camp, in fact he condemns him utterly. This is the first time in my experience that the Conservatives will be attacked from a credible right wing party. Anybody who thinks they can predict the outcome of that battle is stretching credibility. The Conservatives go into this election on a -10 to 13 seats. I say this because of the projected outcome in Scotland. It has taken 2nd place to the ditching of the DUP, but the liar’s deal also ditches Scots fishermen and I don’t see Scots Tories getting out from under this. As for Corbyn, if, big if, he can repeat his 2017 trick of turning the argument from brexit, then he won’t do too badly, if not well who knows. The Libdems will take remain seats, that they held prior to the 2015, from the Tories, I can’t see them losing seats to the Tories and Labour except for those who crossed the floor. I can see the Tories winning seats from Labour in the West Midlands and the North East. There are too many variables to call this election. In April 2017 Mrs May was at 50% in the polls, by election day she was a lame duck. You pays your money you takes your choice.
IF Bojo and Farage make a tactical alliance, they can run as British Bulldogs and Lions Rampant and all that boisterous Jazz against a motley concatenation of prevaricating, pusillanimous socialist doom and gloomsters. This sort of approach will appeal to the Great British Working Classes as well as the Country Toffs and actually could do quite well given how depressing and dull the whole political arena has been for far too long now.
(And you can get they’ll have a better Silly Season Christmas Song too boot with maybe a Hugh Grant or Bill Nighy look-a-like to front it!)
That’s the play, I suspect.
If he gets a good working majority from this (AND there are enough Faragistas to keep them honest), then there is a reasonable chance that negotiations after the WA might actually lead to something approaching more of a FT-independent status which ultimately is what Brexit is about. But if it doesn’t pan out, then God Help the Country!
To run as an alliance you need to trust the other party.
As I have pointed out, Boris needed to prove that he was worthy of trust. He had his chances to do that, but did nothing at every opportunity. Much of the electorate will have missed that, but Mr Farage wont have. He may say that he trusts Boris in the hope that something good comes out of it, merely because there is little hope otherwise. Sadly little will come of it.
My regret here is that most Tories and most MPs are for at the very least, respecting the referendum result. If nothing else they feel that there is no democracy in the UK if the result isnt respected. That is why I think that there is little point now in voting at all. The latest stuff about getting kids to vote and allowing non-citizens to vote on who represents the citizens is just the establishment laughing at us.
‘The latest stuff about getting kids to vote and allowing non-citizens to vote on who represents the citizens is just the establishment laughing at us.’
This….exactly this.
Farage does not trust the liar, he has made that clear. I would be surprised if this turned into a coupon election.
Yes, but if he spoils BJ’s chances overmuch by running against him in marginal seats, both will have less chance of being effective. So an alliance is still possible, even without warm and fuzzy relations.
Or put another way: does he trust Corbyn more than Boris? If not, then what’s his best play? Run people 100% everywhere hoping for a majority even though he probably will give Labour more seats that way by splitting the Leave vote? Or make a tactical arrangement which he repeated several times even after being insulted by the Conservatives?
We’ll soon find out.
(I can’t help myself: am still hoping for a Thursday exit. This business really needs to end!!)
You have read leicestersq’s reply, I agree with you if there were a Tory-Brexit alliance then that changes everything. There won’t be.
From Telegraph, new article:
“Brexit Party aims to wipe out Labour heartlands as it opens door to electoral pact with Tories ”
It is from the Torygraph-nuff said. I agree a Tory-Brexit company ltd would make sense. If Farage comes out and says that that is what he wants I’ll believe it.
Hear eu citizens will get a vote. What about Commonwealth citizens? What about Russian citizens? What about all the others? Totally crazy.
For info: Commonwealth citizens already have a vote in all UK elections. If they do why not EU citizens?
EU citizens amendment not allowed by Speaker’s office. Same with votes for 16 and 17 year olds.
Commonwealth citizens do get vote because of reciprical arrangements.
And Johnson will now find dealing with Farage much more difficult. A month ago, an alliance was very possible, but now I don’t see how you make one- so the Brexit vote is also going to be split, and like him or hate him, Farage is powerful political figure. Brexit Party easily could reach 15%+ in the electorate- votes that could easily cause a lot of Tory constituencies to go LibDim or Labour.
There isn’t an election yet, despite the opposition’s proclamation of support for one. My take on the LibDims, SNP, and Labour now is that this is a rhetorical retreat- they won’t vote for an election until they think they have damaged Johnson as much as possible beforehand. If they haven’t set a date by the end of this week, there won’t be an election before the expiration of the new deadline, and Johnson will be greatly weakened.
I guess I agree with a few of the commenters below- Johnson should have taken a much harder line with the Benn Bill than he did.
Just saw a tweet saying that someone was proposing an amendment to allow foreign nationals to vote in our elections. A government is supposed to represent the citizens of the nation, that means only the citizens of the nation should be able to vote for it.
It looks to me as if they are trying everything they can to destroy our country.
Am waiting to see how the votes turn out. And wondering if HMG will pull this motion if some of those amendments go through. They offered a simple Yes-No vote but the first amendment insisted that there be other amendments as authorized by the Speaker. That first one won.
Not mentioned by anyone, but Team Boris are still acting as if the Oct 31st deadline exists. Corbyn says he’s satisfied it’s off the table now, and presumably he has better information than most in the country, but it seems to me that if at first BJ was pushing for the Deal process to go through until Nov 6th, that there is no reason to rush all this now. Unless – maybe – it’s another distraction.
Anyway, will be interesting to see if they pull it with all the amendments. I suspect they will.
We have a legacy of Irish and commonwealth voters being able to vote in UK elections. Time has moved on and imo that right should disappear. A government is supposed to represent the wishes of its citizens, and as a point of principle that means only citizens should be able to vote.
If you come to the UK legally, you should expect no immediate right to vote, imagine the abuse if that wasnt the case. You need to prove yourself as someone contributing to the UK, become a citizen, and at that point you get a vote. That is what I would expect if I left the country to live elsewhere, it should be the same here.
And as for children voting, this is really dangerous stuff.
Changes to the rules on voting should really on happen as a result of either a party getting elected on a clear manifesto to change the voting rules, or better still, as the result of a referendum (ha ha). Attaching a wrecking amendment to a serious bill is completely wrong.
Boris is probably correct that this is a prime election time. The polls are just one factor, as they can change over the course of a campaign. Several strategic factors are even more important in his call for an election, IMHO:
The Leader of the Opposition is disliked. Even Jeremy Corbyn’s own caucus in Westminster — not to mention many of the “regular” Labour activists around the UK — don’t like Corbyn. The reasons vary — his support for the Palestinians, his crazy statist schemes — but UK voters are not enamored of Corbyn.
In “Leave-voting” constituencies some, Labour MPs RECENTLY voted against Boris’s deal. Boris is taking advantage of the “recency effect.” In politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing. Labour MPs like Karl Turner in Kingston upon Hull East (72.8% leave vote), Ed Miliband in Doncaster North (71.7% leave vote) & Dennis Skinner in Bolsover (70.4% leave vote) will have to explain their votes on the stump. It may work, but it puts the Labour MP on the defense instead of on the offense.
“Remain” is split, “Leave” is (mostly) cohesive. Just what the LibDems & Labour’s policies with respect to “Remain” are is a muddled mess: 2nd referendum, revoking Article 50, a deal & then campaign against it in a second referendum…nobody can keep track of what the opposition parties’ goals are. Conversely, Boris has repeatedly said that he’d prefer to leave with a deal but would be prepared to leave without one.
“People vs Parliament” is a strong theme. Boris promised to leave “do or die” by Oct-31. This didn’t happen. No matter: Boris will just point to Parliament & argue that he would’ve kept his promise if the MPs hadn’t of used “parliamentary tricks” to stop him. Essentially, Boris can paint Benn, Bercow et al as a cabal of parliamentary Gríma Wormtongues, intent on frustrating Brexit.
This doesn’t mean that calling a snap election is undoubtedly the “right” choice. It just means that there are several factors indicating that it may indeed be the right call.
LABOUR BACKS UK ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER!
As expected, BoJo’s “3-D chess” backfired and now we’re heading for the next 3 month extension. The EUSSR’s game is clear: delay delay delay. This is how the EUSSR works, and it’s best described by reading and COGNITIVELY understanding these two quotes by Jean-Claude Juncker;
“We decide on something, leave it lying around and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don’t understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back.”
and
“If it’s a Yes, we will say ‘on we go’, and if it’s a No we will say ‘we continue’.”
The UK will NOT leave on October 31st and the Remainders will have more time to sabotage any form of Brexit. That is something you Yanks fail to understand.
Forget about the French, they want the UK to REMAIN just as much as the next guy, because ‘the more, the merrier’ is the motto of the EUSSR. The Brits might whine and put up some fake resistance once in a while (but despite this whining, the UK has since joining the EU back in on January 1st 1973 more or less ALWAYS towed the EUSSR expansionist line) but the Frenchies also realise that the UK is a netto CONTRIBUTOR to the EUSSR’s budget.
For all those EUSSR expansion plans (see: Georgia, Armenia, and dumping billions into a corrupt banana republic like Ukraine) and all present and future bank/Southern Europe bailouts, the French and Germans will need every Penny/Cent they can squeeze out of member states, and Macron knows this.
p.s. I saw that you replied to a previous comment I made, by selecting one part of my statement, cheerleading the reply by Reader Rupert (because it suits your narrative), and then leaving out my reply to Reader Rupert. That’s not very chique Mish, not very classy at all.
Mish, I’m not here to “score points” but I want (just as I thought you would) to make an educated guess to where this is all leading. By leaving out my reply and thus selectively quote me, it seems you are more interested in “scoring points” by devoting an entire topic to it, rather than an “exchange of ideas.”
This is the topic in question:
Could not find any posts of Rupert or Fulgurite there.
Hmmm…would you want to read them considering the comment above?
Well he has a point about how eu works by diluting or frustrating decision making. Say for Greece, it is interesting to watch from outside, then nothing happens and everyone goes home and it gets forgotten. If you live there though you have to put up with the result. So you can understand that people aren’t happy with that going on with their own country, and are fast enough depreciate outside attention as trivial or a distraction. Personally I see Mish as putting himself out to allow debate, a lot of responsibility with moderation and not allowing getting swamped in hostile arguments, as well as allowing people their say and staying unbiased.
Looks like labour will now back an election.
Point is that you cannot say until after the poll whether it was smart or not. Personally I would have preferred an agreed no deal, but a deal that returns full UK sovereignty meets the minimum. The extension might still be meaningless, just not in the way you say, support for BJ walking a middle line and wrapping up is not guaranteed after all the delay and manipulation that has occurred, people are resentful.
On TV here, Jeremy Corbyn was seen backing the call for a GE before Christmas. Looks like it is going to happen.
“However, a one-line Bill bill to change the FTPA only requires a 50% + 1 majority.”
That’s a nice straw at which to grasp, but if the government can’t even sucessfully prorogue Parliament for a couple weeks, how are they going to get through a bill that puts MPs at actual risk of being unseated before their appoointed time?
I agree with the main points in this post. Johnson and the EU/Remainer coalition joined their forces against Corbyn, therefore Labour has lost the tactical game in Westminster. If we believe the poll numbers, then Labour will suffer a serious defeat.
However, this pincer movement is not the whole story. There is a fourth player in this game who is not represented in Westminster. Nigel Farage will try to capitalize on the broken “do or die” pledge and the concessions in the Johnson deal. The Tories are betting that he will be unable to change the poll numbers during the campaign but nobody knows for sure.
“This setup is a huge advantage for Johnson.”
I salute you, Mish, for your brilliant analysis in seeing Johnson’s great plan in dealing with Macron. Assuming the election will take place, Johnson should win by a landslide.
However, I agree with Tom Luongo, Johnson is not committed to Brexit. If, as I expect, he wins an absolute majority, it will be Johnson’s Brexit plan and not necessarily anything good (like No Deal).
When Cameron announced the referendum, few believed Brexit would win, including (obviously) Cameron himself. I doubt if Johnson believed it either but saw a large block of angry Tory Brexit voters whose allegiance he could gain, for future elections, by supporting Leave. Of course, it is possible that Johnson has changed his mind since then.
I’m glad Johnson’s latest bill is being pulled. But I won’t believe Brexit or ‘Brexit’ until I see it. Johnson only has to deliver a plan that is a little better than May’s to enable him to claim victory – and no election for 5 years.
I should also add that I am just as interested (if not more interested) in the total dissolution of the EU as I am in Britain leaving.
Mish, your ability to make all these things seem to make sense is truly mind-blowing!
If BJ indeed gave up willingly on 2019 brexit, then he plays the odds, which he could lose.
You’re forgetting the emotional fatique here, Mish. You simply cannot keep people in extreme fear -contrived or not, some people actually experience it as such- for 3 years and then AGAIN take the piss out of them. Because that’s what has happened, yet again. Whether it’s 4-D chess by BJ, who knows. All I know is, he’s lost support because he didn’t get the job done, like he promised. This recent development is of course AFTER the recent polls, showing a Tory surge. And his opponents will use this against him, so I’m not too sure whether this move will prove to be to his benefit.
Elections might turn out surprisingly different, because the people are being subjected to relentless propaganda and they’re just tired. And fed up. Brexit hasn’t been delivered, yet again. It’s these bloody delays that wear people out and change their positions, do not dismiss this factor too easily.
Whether a no-deal is still in play, I have no idea. You tell me.
Although Boris clearly outshines all his various opponents (which is the main reason they detest him), I think you are right about the fatigue factor. But fatigue often plays out in many different ways, including anger, depression, disengagement and so forth. A large number of Brexiteers have felt the entire post-referendum process has been extremely badly handled on all side with the result that Brexit is almost impossible now. Many of those who are still engaged and determined will be pushing for a bona fide Brexit, which at this point means what has been spun into the term ‘No Deal.’
Is Johnson open to that? Personally, I think his biggest mistake thus far was not to sell that idea better. (That said, the machinations behind the Benn Act were truly extraordinary.) I think he has to play that up during the election campaign (the deviousness involved) in order to sell No Deal as the only reasonable way forward in order to reboot this whole sorry business.
But if he keeps pushing his Deal – as I suspect he will – he might find TBP getting a much higher chunk of the vote eating into his majority even if they don’t get many seats.
Wouldn’t it be nice if they could run a clean, principled, well articulated, no-nonsense ‘Clean Brexit’ campaign? Anything else, I suspect, is going to result in yet another hung parliament. But if he were to do that, then he will no doubt worsen many of the good relations he seems to have engendered in the EU realm. However, he is Britain’s PM, not theirs, and not being firm about that from 2016 on is what has caused this mess, so hopefully he will be bolder on that front than heretofore.
I am trying to watch what they do and not listen to what they say.
Boris could have fought hard over the Benn surrender bill and claimed that it wasnt Queen’s perogative. He failed to do so.
Boris could have challenged the Benn surrender act in court. He failed to do so.
Boris could have not handed over any letter to the EU. He failed to do so.
Boris could have taken the EU’s agreement to continue our membership to court citing the Vienna convention. He failed to do so.
It seems to me pretty clear that Boris is just part of team Remain.
I think Mish explained why he never challenged the Benn Bill/Act.
Never,
I thought Mish was thinking that he had another Ace in the hole to see Brexit through, and that was why he was happy for the Bill not to be challenged. It appears that either there was no ace in the hole at all, in which case why didnt he challenge it if Brexit was his aim? I can see no reason, it was a free no lose gamble for him and he was on good legal ground.
That leaves only one conclusion as to why it wasnt challenged, namely that Boris doesnt want Brexit at all. He now goes into the election under false pretences as few will have noticed that he could have delivered Brexit if he wanted to but didnt. He goes to the electorate pretending to be the Brexit champion, the man who led Leave to victory. However, if you look under the bonnet, Leave won despite him being the leader, and he has never DONE anything that could cause Brexit it come about when he could have done something that mattered.
It seems to me that Corbyn’s refusal to have an election took team Boris by surprise.
But also, although the talk has been about Brexit the last few months, really the only key shift is to get a new Parliament, since without one nothing approaching Brexit is possible at all.
Now the question is – assuming there IS an election (not yet voted on) – will the Tories run on a Clean Break No-More-Vassalage-with-Endless-Negotiations Brexit, or is he going to go up and down the country manfully waving his lusty blond head of hair as he touts the extraordinary virtues of his New Great Deal.
The fatigue argument is going to prove make or break.
I think Boris is going to betray Brexit because he has refused to embrace No Deal / WTO / FTA approach by first leaving and then negotiating. I still hope that once the election is agreed he will adopt that position and make strategic voting alliance with TBP, but thus far there are no indications that he will. And if he doesn’t, another hung Parliament is a very real possibility. Hopefully Cummings is on top of all this – he does have a good track record with elections, albeit GE’s are not the same as referenda – but this remains to be seen…
Well, Brexit hasn’t been delivered.
It’s not as black and white as you describe, but surely, this is the essence of the ongoing failures.
However, since there is going to be an election, I can only hope both sides are now free from their shackles and show their true colours, which are ‘remain’ or ‘leave’. No tricks, games or delays anymore, just let the voter decide and get it done. No need for exhausting analysis, mindgames or project fear anymore.
This will be it, since the EU cannot grant another delay. So hopefully, coalitions will be formed, Johnson&Farage vs whatever remain-coalition appears and they play it hard. No deal and a clean break. If I was a UK citizen, I’d prefer a clean break, no deal Brexit. And it’s time for Johnson and Farage to stop wasting people’s time and deliver on their promise.
Problem is that tory policy is understood as May’s line, give or take. BJ is understood to be part of that.Even if he pushes for a more defined brexit, people see it as product of previous party error or manipulation, maybe planned. When people expect certainty, and that gets abused, they don’t forget. “Trying” doesn’t count, and now it is going on three years of “trying”, after several years to get a referendum, after forty years of eu empty direction.
Exactly my point.
The growing anger and frustration demands strong, decisive and clear positions. Either leave with a clean break, no deal….or remain and overthrow the referendum. The damage has already been done, the country has already been divided and people have chosen their side (for the most part anyway). Leave or remain….get it done!
No more ‘fictional’ politics, for God’s sake, show the people what you’re made of and make your coalitions with clear, firm positions. This is it…vote your arse off!
Fatigue goes both ways. A lot of pro democracy remainers are starting to change positions, if not on remain, definitely on supporting vexatious remainers electorally.
From Andrew Sullivan at NY Magazine:
“If a referendum were to be held for the first time tomorrow, I’d still vote to Remain.
But, call me crazy, I also believe in abiding by the result of legitimate national, democratic votes. Upholding that principle, even when it goes against our own strong wishes and personal vote, is foundational to liberal democracy. And retroactively nullifying by waiting out a referendum result solely because you lost is unacceptable, period. Consistently bullshitting about your own motives thereafter is contemptible. Preventing a new election in order to keep a zombie government in power, even when it is begging to be put out of its misery, is unprecedented.”
Yup. That’s exactly what I meant. Look, I will always accept defeat, but I won’t ever accept deliberate attempts to overthrow a democratic vote. This isn’t a leave or remain-issue, it’s about abuse of power and contempt for the people who have elected you to serve them for the greater good and give clear instructions with their votes. We’ve already seen more than enough examples of blatantly ignoring the outcomes of previous referenda, haven’t we? (Dutch 61.6% against and Ireland was denied it’s first against-vote and ‘didn’t understand what they voted against’).
I agree with this analysis. It all plays into Johnson’s hand, but not the people of Britain. He fluffed the chance to force a decision.
I don’t agree. He is very cleverly consolidating a stronger decision. By the time he is done, support for Brexit will sit at 55-60% of interested people. This is very clever. Rather than drive a marginal Brexit where any negative blow back comes back on him. He’s building a rallying cry.
While Mish’ analysis isn’t provably wrong, it doesn’t factor in unknowns. And, the longer this is dragged, the more opportunity for unknowns to transpire.
I’m starting to think this Brexit thing is a complete sham. Brexit is coming but we don’t know when. If we do know when, then the date will be extended. Wash, rinse, repeat. It’s like holding a carrot in front of a horse. RIDICULOUS.