On Monday, I commented Brexit Extension to January 31 is Meaningless.
The January 31 extension is moot if there are elections in December as now seems likely.
Prognosis Confirmed
That prognosis has been confirmed as MPs Vote for General Election on December 12.
- The UK was gearing up for a December 12 general election after Boris Johnson’s plan to go to the country received the backing of the Commons. MPs voted through the prime minister’s proposal for a pre-Christmas ballot and rejected an opposition move to hold it three days earlier.
- Proposed amendments that would have enfranchised 16 and 17-year-olds, as well as EU nationals, were not taken forward. No 10 had said it would pull the bill altogether if the amendments were passed.
- The Tories restored the whip to 10 of the 21 MPs from whom it was withdrawn last month. The party stressed that the fact the other had not had the whip restored did not mean they would not.
- The UK might not get a further delay to Brexit if it cannot be sorted by 31 January 2020, Donald Tusk warned. The outgoing president of the European council again urged the UK not to waste the time it had been given.
The Votes
- MPs voted against a December 9 date by 315 votes to 295, a majority of 20.
- MPs voted in favour of a December 12 date by a margin of 438 to 20, a majority of 418.
What Difference Does 3 Days Make?
The Liberal Democrats wanted a December 9 election. So did Labour (not that Labour really wanted an election at all, because it didn’t).
The significance of December 12 is that college students who are likely registered to vote near in districts close to their schools may not vote at all since they will be on recess.
That was a win for Johnson.
The amendment to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote was struck down when Johnson threatened not offer December elections at all was also a major win for Johnson.
Regaining the Whip
PM restores the Conservative whip to ten of the 21 Tory rebels: Alistair Burt, Caroline Nokes, Greg Clark, Nick Soames, Ed Vaizey, Margot James, Stephen Hammond, Steve Brine, Richard Harrington, Richard Benyon
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) October 29, 2019
Regaining the whip means the expelled Tory MPs are now back in the party.
I have mixed feeling about that. I suspect Johnson does too.
So why did Johnson let them back in the Tory party?
They voted for the Withdrawal Agreement. They will do so again. Having voted for the WA, they are unlikely to cause further trouble.
It would be better to have hard core Brexit MPs but Johnson does not want them running as independents, splitting the vote. In essence, this was a political compromise to help win the election.
Not Ken Clarke?!? Honestly… 😡 https://t.co/juxbCTjqU4
— Ben Howlett (@benhowlettuk) October 29, 2019
Ken Clarke can go to hell as far as I am concerned. It was his idea to let 16-year olds vote to defeat Brexit.
Caving In to Victory
Those who suggested Johnson “caved in” by agreeing to an extension to January 31 seriously missed the boat.
Johnson got exactly what he wanted: An early election when he is way ahead in the polls.
Heck, as noted in this corner, Johnson even phoned Macron telling him to OK an extension.
Liar Liar Pants on Fire
Johnson was adamantly opposed to an extension (or at least he said).
And he was, if there was no election attached to it.
Assuming elections, however, it was a purposeful lie. So be careful of appearances.
Johnson colluded with French President Emmanuel Macron, who demanded a “way forward”.
The way forward meant either elections or passage of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA). The WA had the Liberal Democrats scared to death.
Understanding What’s Happened
- Johnson is so far ahead in the polls that he would rather gamble on elections before the Withdrawal Agreement is settled.
- The Liberal Democrats desperately need elections to pick up seats from Labour. That is their second agenda. Their first agenda, outright staying in the EU is dead.
- The Liberal Democrats “Remain” strategy blows up the moment the Withdrawal Agreement is approved.
- A Johnson win would strengthen the case for another Scottish Referendum
Staring Into the Abyss
Once Johnson got Macron to hold firm, SNP and the Liberal Democrats caved in, not Johnson.
They had to, and Johnson knew it.
Again, mainstream media got this hopelessly wrong.
Curiously, once SNP and the Liberal Democrats folded, Johnson no longer needed Macron.
UK Polls
Campaigns
- Johnson will run on a “Get Brexit Done” campaign.
- Corbyn will run on the amazing platform of working out an agreement with the EU then campaigning against it in favor of a new referendum.
Mercy!
Instead of health care, labor policies, wages, etc, the main focus of the campaign will be Brexit, not other issues.
Those who genuinely want to remain, have one choice and it isn’t Labour.
What About No Deal?
“No Deal” is back in play as discussed in January Brexit Extension Increases Chance of No Deal.
I believe Johnson wants a deal. But if the election are such that he needs cooperation from DUP to achieve Brexit, then expect No Deal.
Threading the Needle
Regardless of what outcome you want or believe best, Johnson did an amazing job of threading the needle.
- May’s deal was on the verge of revival.
- Were it not for collusion between France and Johnson, this could have dragged on for years.
- Were it not for the arrogance of Corbyn, there would have been a caretaker government led by Ken Clarke with disastrous results
Political Reality
Many of my readers wanted “No Deal”. Some wanted Remain. Some wanted a customs union.
Labour, SNP, the exiled Tories, and the Liberal Democrats all gave Johnson a chance at a deal, believing it to be impossible.
Nearly everyone underestimated Johnson.
Guess what? The impossible happened.
All that remains is an election to prove it.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I have confirmation from the Maven that an Akismet spam filter is responsible for the missing comments of Fulgurite and others.
The filter is terrible. It let’s foreign language gibberish gibberish and multiple spammers post.
The Maven is looking at a solution.
Thanks for the update Mish. I already thought it was strange that you had deleted the post, as you don’t seem like the kind of guy who would do that.
The odd thing is that as far as I know,. I didn’t post anything in a foreign language. I merely posted a link to Jean-Claude Juncker’s quotes, and I call the EU the EUSSR. Perhaps the ‘filter’ is just programmed to have a leftwing bias…?
To anyone who sees Greyed-Out comments of believe that have had one deleted.
1: Please capture a screen shot of the Greyed-Out comment.
2: What OS and browser are you using?
Too late for me to make a screenshot, but I’m using Mac OS 10.13.6 and Safari. Hope it helps.
Yes, amazing analysis on Brexit. As for the mainstream remoaner media MSRM, they are pathetic at reporting on such a complex issue. The pro-brexit Sun did a decent job and a few others. Brexit is and has been one of the pivotal moments of our time that will shape the world for years to come.
If someone has a screen shot of a greyed out reply, I would like to see it.
Thanks.
Mish, sadly I didnt take a screenshot of the phenomena with Fulgurite and I cannot see it now that I have logged on to a different computer. I did capture his first words from the post so I hope that this proves that I did see something.
I will try and capture a screenshot if I see the same thing again.
I allow far more dissent here than about about blog you can find.
Attempting to find out what happened to the missing comments. Were they to this post?
Yup, one of mine has vanished (no big loss!). Also, I had a couple greying out shortly after composition, which I believe indicated that they had been deleted.
I did not remove any comments today. I very seldom remove them
I want to see what the Brexit party slate is. Who do they target and who do they ignore? I think Nigel and Boris have already mapped out a strategy on this.
Did you remove my reply? (Both here and and to your post below)
HAHAHAHAHAHA! Oh man, you’re not much different than those leftwing snowflake millennials or Karl Denninger! 🙂
Mish got triggered by something really nasty: a different opinion. Oh dear….
Fulgurite,
I can see a reply of yours, but it is greyed out. A couple of my replie went missing recently as well. They werent that controversial, so I am assuming that it is a bug somewhere.
Is your reply the one that starts – “Any REAL Brexit (a no-deal Brexit) is now probably off the table”
In which case I agree with your point. When you take this into account, Boris looks more and more like camp remain.
YES! That’s the reply! I can’t see it anymore. Perhaps the ‘spam filter’ has a leftwing bias, and doesn’t like anyone posting inconvenient facts about Jean-Claude Juncker or the EUSSR? 😉
Fulgurite,
you may see that reply in your history of comments. I think that you can find them by clicking on the left where there is an icon that represents you. Somewhere in there is the history of your comments, and my missing posts were to be found there. I dont know what you can do with them though!
“think this ‘Clarke for caretaker Prime Minister’ rubbish is based on a fundermental miss reading of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and how the thing would work. If Boris had lost a No Confidence Motion he was under no obligation to resign and indeed to do so would have had to be able to advise Her Majesty to summon x, y or z.”
You do not understand the act. I do. I even commented on the point of the problem thus my perpetual concern over 14 days to Brexit.
Within 14 days to Brexit Johnson would not have resigned. Over 14 days he had no choice. The caretaker would have taken over for sure.
I had a second concern – time enough to pass emergency legislation to change the act. The real window to act was probably 5-6 days not 14. I expect Avid to back me up on this point.
In the end there was no VONC so it is a bit academic. If there had been a VONC and the liar lost then there would have been a vote of confidence the next day in whoever the rebel alliance had agreed on. But they couldn’t agree. The FTPA is not long for this world in any case. Really dodged a bullet when ED Millibrand wasn’t elected in 2015 didn’t we?
“Guess what? The impossible happened.”
I am not buying this one. As far as I can see nothing happened. There was a lot of talk and stuff, but in amongst those words there was nothing of substance to be found.
If Boris were a sleeping remainer he would he well paid for the work that he has done. A clear path now lies ahead for 5 more years of EU membership hell.
Remember, Boris said that he would die in a ditch rather than remain after 31st Oct. He had a chance to go to jail and get the UK out of its EU jail. Our jails are far nicer than our ditches, but Boris didnt go for that. His actions talk volumes.
Now how does it go from here? Well it will be a difficult one for the Brexit party to decide. They either back Boris and you can reasonably expect a win for the Tory alliance, and then we get a horrible Brexit that will please only remainers. Or the Brexit party can go it alone and split the Brexit vote, and who knows what will happen then? I doubt that there will be a Hard Brexit majority, most likely we will end up with more of the same rubbish as we just had in Parliament which will suit the EU down to the ground. Either way the British people lose and the EU keeps its tax farm.
Boris has stitched us up good and rotten, just like Theresa May did.
If there is a Brexit party candidate in my constituency I will vote for them, but not the Tories.
“I believe Johnson wants a deal. But if the election are such that he needs cooperation from DUP to achieve Brexit, then expect No Deal.”
Johnson is too far ahead to need DUP. Northern Ireland voted Leave. The one part of Johnson’s own deal (which didn’t pass) that was good was to keep NI in the EU – and eventual re-unification with Ireland.
Winning an outright majority, and a probable large one, means that it’s Johnson’s deal. I don’t believe he’s a committed Brexiteer but we shall see what happens.
Correction : Northern Ireland voted REMAIN by a margin of over 10% in the EU referendum.
Correct. I knew that. Don’t know why I said ‘Leave’.
Apart from that, I agree with your analysis. I wonder if there might be a chance for NI to remain in the UK if post-Brexit Britain proves economically more successful than the Republic, but I guess the time frame would be too long in any case. That can of worms is going to need superhuman grace to sort out.
To be so nasty to a 79 year old man in the twilight of his years is churlish and uncharitable. Whatever your political beliefs it is obvious that the man has acted honourably throughout his time in politics.
I sincerely hope he escapes Hell, but I believe the most honourable thing Kenneth Clarke has ever done is promise to resign. For this, I thank him.
After three years of this nonsense I don’t think it is time to celebrate. A lot can happen between now and 12/12.
There is still no guarantee the end result won’t be more Article 50 delays or even remaining. Johnson got the election he wanted, but now he has to get a majority. If he doesn’t do a deal with the Brexit party they may end up splitting the vote in many constituencies and allowing a Remainer to win.
The work for Johnson has just begun.
It is easy to be enthusiastic if one allows the goalposts to move. Self-deception. October 31 will be gone without Brexit and this is the 3rd Tory PM who promises to ‘Get Brexit Done’ in four years.
Johnson let it go very easily despite the tough talk. During the EU negotiation, he sold off a crucial red line (the union with NI) for short-term appearance. He might be successful with this but he deserves no hype at all. It depends mostly on what Farage is capable of during the campaign.
“Were it not for the arrogance of Corbyn, there would have been a caretaker government.”
I’m loathe to defend Jeremy Corbyn, but the dude had no choice: As leader of the opposition, he couldn’t be seen as “caving” to allow someone else to be PM. Remember, many in Labour DO NOT like Corbyn; allowing somebody else to be PM — even in a caretaker role — could have been sufficient to trigger a leadership challenge. Had he agreed to a non-Labour PM, aspirants to the Labour Party Leadership would’ve charged him with surrendering to another party. Had he agreed to let a different Labour Party grandee become PM, Labour rebels would’ve coalesced around that figure in a bid to oust Corbyn.
I get that a hard-core Remainer would even sacrifice being Labour Party leader to stop Brexit, but that’s simply not Corbyn. He’s never been a hard-core Remainer. In 1975, he voted for the UK to leave the EEC. In 1992-1993, he opposed the Maastricht Treaty. In 2008, he opposed the Lisbon Treaty. In 2017, he whipped Labour MPs to vote FOR the EU Withdrawal Notification Bill (Article 50). Hell, during the 2016 referendum campaign, dude went on vacation! He’s simply not a Remainer, so he’s not going to give up the plum of being Labour Leader for something he doesn’t believe in.
I think this ‘Clarke for caretaker Prime Minister’ rubbish is based on a fundermental miss reading of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and how the thing would work. If Boris had lost a No Confidence Motion he was under no obligation to resign and indeed to do so would have had to be able to advise Her Majesty to summon x, y or z. To do so he would have had to have had a strong indication that the person he recommended would have been able to command a majority. Neither Clarke or Corbyn could have done so – the numbers were not there.
With their ‘Let’s Get Brexit Done’ message, the Tories are caught in between a rock and a hard place. Many people will say the Tories have failed to do exactly that in three and a half years, and even now think their heart is not really in Brexit at all. At the very least Johnson is perceived by many one-time sympathisers as both treacherous (DUP) and unreliable (‘No ifs and buts.’) Expect to see a significant drop in the Conservative support in the first opinion polls to be released after the election has been called.
Where I live most people I know are incandescent with rage at how Parliament has behaved. They see and understand how Benn, Letwin, Cooper and the poison dwarf Bercow have trashed the Constitution to stop Brexit and are very angry about it, even if they voted Remain. So I can see Boris might do rather well if he plays the ‘Parliament against the People’ card and if I were him I would play it for all it’s worth.
I start from a position of thinking that after 3+ years, the majority of leavers wanted out. Full stop. Even the Tory party’s grass roots default became ‘no deal’. As has been explained elsewhere in this blog, Johnson was in a position to deliver no deal or at least try, but decided to go for an election instead. The subtlety or otherwise of this move will be lost on a significant proportion of voters who are ‘incandescent with rage’ (as you put it) that in three + years they haven’t got what they wanted. Johnson will become the focus for his AND Teresa May’s failings. As you may have guessed I am a strong leaver and strong Tory sympathiser, but even I am currently undecided whether even to bother voting.
How long until toddlers get voting rights?
“Once Johnson got Macron to hold firm, SNP and the Liberal Democrats caved in, not Johnson.
They had to, and Johnson knew it.
Again, mainstream media got this hopelessly wrong.”
The MSM didn’t get this wrong, they purposefully reported it the way they did. The UK MSM hate Johnson and all that he has managed, he is the “oaf” the “liar” the “cheat”, there is no way the MSM is ever going to report on Brexit, Johnson or the UK Gov in any other light than the narrowly focused beam of outright hate and denial.
If you NEED 16 year olds voting to win your argument, then you are on the wrong side of the argument and you “should” know that.
Behold the power of oligarchy!
(No comment box, only reply option):
I think Jeremy is going to run a classic class warfare campaign. Brexit issue is relegated to ‘a plague on both their houses.’ Brexit or no Brexit makes no difference, the same establishment exploiting ordinary people is in place.
One of his proposals was first floated by the socialists – intelligent and sincere – around the fledgling Hitler before he became Dictator. Workers have the right to earn stock in the companies they work for; in the Nat-Soc’s case it was a limit of 5% per annum meaning that after 20 years the company would be owned by the Union, basically. They didn’t do it after he got in (and there were some purges and suchlike).
Am NOT playing the H card on Corbyn, just saying: he’s going to go full-bore classic/Marxist socialist, and that means class warfare. LD’s want Remain; Old Etonian Boris and Old Etonian Jacob ‘the privileged recliner Rees-Mogg’ want some sort of Free Trade Utopia with Donald Trump as their Deity. Corbyn is going to run in the Reality-Based Middle, in the cafeterias, the buses, the tube, the suburbs, the industrial wasteland, the ethnically woke and ethnically bitter, all those who want to ‘stick it to the man’ and what a man they have in Boris.
This is Corbyn’s last stand. He’s going to fight hard and dirty and be far tougher and more ruthless than most are expecting.
The problem is: with his new haircut and beard, all white, he looks like the cartoon of a plucked Christmas Turkey, which is what he very well might end up being. The British prefer bulldogs to turkeys. Boris is a bulldog. Getting Brexit done is sort of what bulldogs do; like they take the Turkeys of Little England myopic Marxist utopias, clench them by the neck in their stout little teeth, and then shake them from side to side until well and truly neck-wrung, and then serve them up on a platter, well and truly roasted.
It’s going to be an all-out slug fest. And then you have experts predicting higher than usual marginal seats, meaning unlikelihood of a solid working majority at the end of it all, meaning Boris is going for a landslide or broke, and we’ve got ourselves an election folks! After 3 years of May, maybe, maybe not and maybe never, things are starting to perk up again….
As always, excellent analysis Mish.
I think the main function of No Deal – assuming he gets a majority – is to pressure the EU of course. And once he doesn’t have a pusillanimous Remainer Parliament and Cabinet, he can push them (the EU) far more than most now believe possible. He’ll get a FTA of some sort, constitutional and legal disentanglement, and that will be that, with hopefully acceptance and good will from the EU in the bargain, which a hostile No Deal exit might not find so easy to effect. The EU has to accept that the UK is going to leave and then want to come to a good working arrangement so they can pursue their own agendas without UK obstruction or interference. The goal is an amicable divorce.
If I was in charge of Brexit for the UK, I would just stop paying the ridiculous amounts of money into the EU and force them to kick me out….problem solved. Very similar to deadbeat homeowners during the housing crisis that stopped paying mortgage bill, but were allowed to stay in ‘their’ homes for an extended period of time to help the banks.
What did Groucho Marx used to say? “I wouldn’t want to be a member of a club that would have me as a member”