Please consider the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2022 and Year 2022 (Second Estimate).
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9 percent. The updated estimates primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up
GDP 2022 Q4 Revision Summary
2022 Q4 Revised Details
- Real GDP was up 2.7 percentage points (PP).
- Real Final Sales (RFS) were up 1.2 percent. RFS is the bottom line number. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
- Inventory adjustments added 1.5 PP to GDP.
- Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers was just 0.1 PP. Government spending including military aid contributed 1.1 PP to the RFS total.
- Dramatic revision in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) from 2.1 percent to 1.4 percent.
Numbers to Watch
GDP was revised lower to 2.7 percent. But the bottom line estimate is Real Final Sales (RFS) at 1.2 percent.
The difference between Real GDP and RFS is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.
RFS to private domestic purchasers was a mere 0.1 percent.
Recession Watch
These numbers do not signal recession but the slowdown is consistent with one.
On January 26, I commented 4th Quarter 2022 GDP Is Much Weaker Than Headline Numbers, Recession Is Not Off
These revisions add to that view.
Note that Industrial Production Much Weaker Than Expected, With Negative Revisions Too
As I have commented many times, heading into recessions the revisions will tend to be heavily negative.
Coming out of recessions, revisions tend to be positive.
Current Money Supply Numbers
Money supply numbers are also hugely recessionary.
We are in the biggest collapse in money supply since the Great Depression.
For discussion, please see Comments From Lacy Hunt on the Fed’s Current Money Supply Numbers
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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barrels a day, down by 0.5% from the same period last year. Over the past
four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a
day, down by 8.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product
supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by
5.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.7%
compared with the same four-week period last year.
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price was $87.85 per barrel on
October 28, 2022, $2.38 above last week’s price and $4.35 more than a year
ago. The spot price for conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was
$3.152 per gallon, $0.203 more than last week’s price but $0.615 above a
year ago. The spot price for No. 2 heating oil in the New York Harbor was
$4.540 per gallon, $0.396 above last week’s price and $2.198 over a year
ago.
The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $3.742 per
gallon on October 31, 2022, $0.027 below last week’s price but $0.352 over
a year ago. The national average retail diesel fuel price decreased to $5.317
per gallon, $0.024 per gallon lower than last week’s price but $1.590 higher
than a year ago.
barrels a day, down by 8.4% from the same period last year. Over the past
four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.5 million barrels a
day, down by 1.4% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product
supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down
by 13.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up
0.6% compared with the same four-week period last year.
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price fell to $76.31 per barrel on
February 17, 2023, $3.43 lower than the previous week, and $14.95 less
than a year ago. The spot price for conventional gasoline at New York
Harbor decreased $0.134 to $2.497 per gallon, and was $0.246 less the price
one year ago. The New York Harbor spot price for No. 2 heating oil fell
$0.158 to $2.526 per gallon, and was $0.133 below the price last year at the
same time.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline decreased to $3.379
per gallon on February 13, 2023, $0.011 below last week’s price, and
$0.151 below the price last year. The national average retail diesel fuel
price decreased to $4.376 per gallon, $0.068 less than last week, but $0.321
higher than the price one year ago
assets is measured.
1-trillion paper mark note to a new Reichsmark, worth the same as a
Rentenmark. By 1924 one dollar was equivalent to 4.2 Rentenmark.”