The Wall Street Journal notes The EV Question for Auto Executives: How Fast to Make the Shift?
- Volvo: “We don’t want to risk missing the market,” Volvo Car VOLCAR.B 0.63%increase; green up pointing triangle AB Chief Executive Jim Rowan said during an earnings call this month. The Swedish auto maker is among those seeking to rapidly evolve into an electric-only manufacturer, saying it will offer an all-EV lineup by 2030. Last year, 11% of Volvo’s vehicle sales were electric.
- Ford: Ford has said it expects half of its vehicle sales to be fully electric by the end of the decade.
- GM: GM is targeting 2035 as the phaseout of internal-combustion-engine sales for all but its heaviest vehicles.
- Toyota: The world’s largest auto maker by vehicle sales, has been earmarking less money than its rivals toward development of fully electric models. It instead wants to offer an array of choices, including its specialty, hybrid vehicles, which combine a gas engine with a small battery and electric motor to save fuel.
- Jeep: Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Stellantis NV, the maker of the Jeep and Ram brands, has been similarly hesitant about racing ahead too fast. In particular, he has raised concerns about regulators pushing car companies to convert to battery-powered cars too quickly, and has said that a potential shortage of raw materials needed for the batteries to produce enough EVs could cause the industry to fall short.
- EU: Last week, European Union lawmakers approved a law that will effectively ban sales of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles starting in 2035.
- California: California has set the same phaseout 2035 date.
If You Mandate It, Will It Happen? When?
California and the EU have mandates.
If enough minerals are not readily available at reasonable prices, the cost of batteries will skyrocket.
If infrastructure is not in place people will hold on to their existing cars.
As the 2029 and 2034 target dates approach, I would not be surprised by enormous demand for non-EVs if either the price of EVs is too high or the infrastructure is not sufficient.
If buyers are reluctant, Ford will not hit its 50 percent target by 2030 or it will go bankrupt doing so.
Questioning the 2035 Date
Mike Manley, chief executive of AutoNation Inc., a publicly traded dealership group, said auto executives have been talking more with dealers over the past year about what the pace of the EV transition should be. It isn’t an easy answer, he said, because there is uncertainty about the pace with which consumers will warm to battery-powered vehicles.
In addition to supply of minerals and infrastructure issues, politics comes into play.
2035 is sufficiently far enough away that no one can say what will happen or is even likely.
Politics of the Matter
Who will win the 2024 election?
If Democrats with the House, Senate, and White House in the 2024 election, then expect the 2035 target date to hold, no matter what problems transpire. Spending, subsidies, and penalties for noncompliance will soar.
If Republicans win the White House, expect most or all of Biden’s mandates to be tossed out the window.
If Republicans win the trifecta, it will set back the transition by at least four years.
EV Transition is Highly Inflationary
Regardless of who wins, the path towards EVs is set.
And regardless of who wins, that path is inflationary. The quicker the path, the faster the necessary expenditures and subsidies.
Utilities will have to expand and upgrade. Expect higher electricity costs, much higher.
One of the selling points of EVs right now is that they are cheaper over the long haul.
Will EVs be cheaper if the costs of batteries and electricity soar?
Without Subsidies, How Many People Will Buy an EV?
Here is another question: Without Subsidies, How Many People Will Buy an EV?
Sales in Germany plunged after subsidies were reduced.
A Mad Rush to Build More EV Factories, But Where are the Minerals?
As long as we are asking questions, A Mad Rush to Build More EV Factories, But Where are the Minerals?
- Brookings on Nickel: Indonesia’s nickel sector is particularly carbon-intensive and environmentally damaging. This creates an awkward challenge for EV manufacturers, who are under pressure to manage environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues in their supply chains, including carbon emissions. Some EV manufacturers have expressed a preference for “low-carbon” nickel. However, the supply of “low-carbon” is insufficient to meet forecasted demand, and it comes with a higher price tag.
- Convenience.Org on Cobalt: Cobalt has the most supply risks, as it has a highly concentrated production and limited reserves. There are not many producers of cobalt, with a single company producing one-third of the world’s annual supply, and 65% of cobalt coming from a single country.
Please click on the above link. It’s a pretty damning assessment of allegedly “clean” energy.
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing is an outright scam.
Environment Police Want to Reduce Car Ownership Because EVs Are Not Enough
For the sake of climate justice, transit justice, environmental justice, and Indigenous justice, the environment police want to reduce car ownership by making EV cars travel less before a charge.
For discussion, please consider Environment Police Want to Reduce Car Ownership Because EVs Are Not Enough
Don’t kid yourself.
This vision is precisely what President Biden, the socialists, and the Marxists want. If you want the same thing, then vote for Democrats in 2024.
I do not have the answer to my lead question, and no one else does either because we cannot predict how stupid the politics of this setup will become.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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Mish
Baloney. The Fossil Fuels Industry is the most polluting, destructive and War inducing industry humans have ever created. Time to get off the BIG OIL Addiction. The largest use for OIL and Gasoline is Ground Transportation. As that goes away, OIL becomes unnecessarily expensive and OPEC+ loses more and more power to wreck economies.
Nah, doing foolish things like texting and driving are causing a huge number of accidents. Distracted driving causes more accidents than drunk driving.
Fraction of the price of Uber. And many people aren’t buying vehicles. Many young people are not even getting their licenses.
A good percentage of early horseless carriages were battery powered. Gas fueled internal combustion proved to be superior.
like guns, they’re dangerous to people that don’t know how to use them. If you haven’t ridden a bike in 40 years and decide to take an e-bike downtown, you’re gonna have a bad time.
This may happen regardless of your political leanings. Tesla has been using LFP batteries in more than half of its cars for more than a year now. LPF do not contain cobalt or nickel. CATL, the Chinese battery giant, is starting production this year on sodium batteries. Sodium batteries won’t need lithium either and are expected to displace lead batteries and be cheaper. While less energy dense that lithium so far, they will be used for energy storage in applications like renewable producers – freeing up resources for cars until the new advancement which seems to be happening every day now. On the supply side for the grids,rRenewable energy production is ramping up everywhere. You can thank Putin for that, not the environmentalists. Projects that were once a maybe have gone quickly to “how fast can we bring this online” in regions where reliance on oil cartels and despots supplying energy is looking pretty stupid. The there is the superiority of the EV for performance, cost of maintenance and , as bonus, cleaner overall. There are bottlenecks in charger availability is some places and it will be a few years for it to be practical for someone without a home charger to consider an EV. But it is coming. And, as more people make the switch, it is going to be harder to find a gas station – that’s just the economics of supply and demand.
LFP batteries can’t be charge below freezing, or used at all below -5 C. Since it’s currently -7 C I see a problem. If the car has to be plugged in all night just to keep the battery warm power demand will be even higher that anticipated.
Have you got your big out bag packed? The aliens are coming!