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Reply to Cramer’s Call Bear Market is Over: “You Have Been Warned”

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30 comments on Reply to Cramer’s Call Bear Market is Over: “You Have Been Warned”

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Jim Cramer on Mad Money, image from a Tweet

Bianco on Cramer

“You have been warned”

Hedgeye on Cramer

John Hussman on Market Internals 

“Unfavorable internals”

Over!

Value in Consistency

Bubbles Will Pop

If you think the Fed can fix decades of easy money and reckless Congressional spending while not remotely understanding inflation, you are only nuts.

Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash

Let’s just say I strongly disagree with Cramer.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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30 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
This is all algorithm driven bs these days ! Go figure , stocks going up under the undeniable threat of a fullblown new WW. It is obvious that algorithms don t know sh it about fn WWs yet, nor do they know that printing fiat currency as if there were no tomorrow, has reached its limit too. Stupid fn deluded algos !
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FrankieCarbone
FrankieCarbone
4 years ago
Mish, I read a ton of opinions, intentionally trying to fleece out different approaches and perspectives and I agree wholeheartedly with you that most people are utterly clueless as to how far stocks are going to crash.
That said, I think it will be SO BAD that I have staggered my black swan LEAPs to derisk the counterparty risk that the brokerages that I am buying puts from don’t go belly-up before I have an opportunity to sell to cover. What good is an SH option with a 35 strike if ProShares is belly-up? Or a SPY put? So, take SH, one of my positions: I start at 18, weigh heavily in the 20-40% crash range and then taper down to 60% crash range with the latter being considered very high-risk, very high reward. Not high risk because I think a 35 strike is possible, but high risk because I am concerned this will be so bad that I will not get paid, or that short-selling will be banned and I’ll be policy screwed out of my position.
My other legs are gold and cash. The tide must first go out before it comes in. I do not think a crack-up boom is going to happen (though I am hedged for any potential black swan), as I agree with your thesis that dollar destruction will occur so viciously that FED-printer go brrr…. cannot happen fast enough. Net effect: Massive deflation first.
BUT, we at least should know by now that the FED will, after the ruins start to smolder, start the presses at an unprecedented rate and THAT is where the dollar’s final destruction occurs. Schiff is wrong about direct hyperinflation. No, extremely painful deflation first and people will not see it coming.
Then again, I could be wrong. There seems to be a major rift between Powell and the Biden admin over the synchronization of both monetary and fiscal policy.
The consensus is almost always wrong. And the consensus is 70’s style galloping inflation forever with concurrent market melt-up. I don’t buy this. Your thoughts?
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Jackula
Jackula
4 years ago
What a load! We are just in the first inning of this economic mess
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honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
4 years ago
COMPQ had double top breakout, bears are now in trouble…second quarter could be bullish
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Too much BS
Too much BS
4 years ago
Cramer is full of Bull. https://youtu.be/J9-SXcPGdkg
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
What happen to Realist ?
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MPO45
MPO45
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
I think he got banned for disagreeing with he who must not be named. I wish Realist had a blog. Came here mostly for Realist comments these days.
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Jack
Jack
4 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Agree.
When I first started to follow a few months ago Realist and a few other (other than Mish of course) caught my eye.
Too bad he has not contributed in a while.
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Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
He didn’t get banned. As I recall, Mish said that he was getting tired of the way that Realist was misinterpreting him (an issue I also had with Realist), so Realist left.
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Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
He would never answer my analytics questions.
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Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
To be accurate, you can disagree with Mish as much as you want, and not get banned. I agree with Mish at times, and disagree at times, and it’s never been a problem. However, if you are going to disagree with Mish, you should accurately represent his opinions in the process. If you present a misrepresentation of his opinion, and then disagree, you will get a warning, which is what happened here. If you do it repeatedly, you might get banned.
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TCW
TCW
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Don’t know, wish he’d come back. I think he took Eddie with him, I enjoyed reading both.
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TCW
TCW
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Looks like he was banned afterall…I went to read some of his older posts and they are gone.
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KyleW
KyleW
4 years ago
I always think the system looks bad. Too much debt, inflation/money creation, government interference in the housing and bond markets, etc. Nevertheless, people have still made a lot of money in stocks so I guess you never really know. I do think Cramer is a contrarian indicator so it might finally be time for a crash.
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Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
How can a bear market end when one hasn’t even started? All we’ve had so far is a correction. The long term prevailing direction is still up. Could the market continue downward and establish a new prevailing direction? Sure, but you need a series of lower highs and lower lows, and we don’t have that yet.
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Nasty Edwin
Nasty Edwin
4 years ago
Bear market rally’s are hard to differentiate from a bull market, especially early in a bear market. April will be telling and early on I expect.
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Agave
Agave
4 years ago
Cramer’s pretty irrelevant in general. Surprised that he still gets any attention.
I’m sticking with my call here from a month or so ago, which was that we would bottom out before the next run up, between 3900-4100 SPX sometime near the first two weeks of March. Then run to 5500-6000 or so before the next nasty bear market hits. We are not in a bear now.
We did bottom around that time just over 4100. We’re in a bounce off that correction now, and may see another short dip soon, but I don’t expect it to go below 4100-4300 for this last dip, and may stay well above that. Then, barring an earthshattering development out of Ukraine and Russia, we’re back to finish off the bull that began in March 2020, sometime in the next few years. Time will tell.
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Counter
Counter
4 years ago
Thanks for the heads up
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Fish1
Fish1
4 years ago
Well, decades of easy money means inflation and stocks are a hedge against such forces. Give me another reason the market crashes here. It’s not like there aren’t any out there but inflationary forces are not compelling.
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bayleaf
bayleaf
4 years ago
Reply to  Fish1
One of the few intelligent comments on here
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
4 years ago
it’s like all media, from old radios to ancient idiot boxes to intertube sites. it’s just a show for advertising dollars.
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shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago
I guess permabears have to be right once in a while, it’s just hard to predict when. I doubt this is the time though.
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
I never listen to market pundits that are bald. I prefer Mish who still has a head of hair. A good head of hair is a sign that the brain is still irrigated by an abundant blood supply so for strictly scientific and medical reasons I prefer Mish. His track record on macro proves my thinking.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Finally some sound financial analysis backed by well established facts.
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
Only invest with people who have hair and never with one who shaves their head. They have bald envy and are not to be trusted.
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MPO45
MPO45
4 years ago
“Don’t be silly….don’t be silly!” A blast from the past! of all your posts about a recession and stock crash, this one finally gives great credence. When Cramer says something with such conviction then you know it’s time to do the exact opposite. I am mostly in cash now. Sold off my $155 apple stock to boot. The next leg down soon and then…..timbeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrr.
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Nuddernoitall
Nuddernoitall
4 years ago
There are hundreds (if not thousands) of Wall Street pundits. The idea that Cramer’s view has added importance, just because he has a TV network platform, is absurd.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Nuddernoitall
Well if you were a day trader and listened to him you’d make money. Long term investors, didn’t fare so well.
It’s possible he moves the market because of his audience reach.
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thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
ah yes the much vaunted Cramer effect,, Almost as powerful is a Elon Musk tweet , well maybe not
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  Nuddernoitall
It is exactly as absurd, as the idea that even the views of all those thousands of “pundits” combined, has any added importance vs the views of any single one among all the millions of others who make random guesses about random numbers.
The one and only reason “Wall Street Pundits” make more money from what the dupes are told to refer to as “investments”, is because “Wall Street Pundits” are closer to The Fed. Hence have improved access to newly printed money, as it is being printed up. No “Wall Street Pundit” have ever made, nor lost, a single penny, because he was ever “right” or “wrong” about anything. No different from how no Casino ever makes money from being better at predicting dice rolls, than the gambling public. That’s simply not how games of random work.
And just to rub in how idiotic the whole redistribution racket is ( as if that wasn’t obvious enough already): If some “pundit”, or anyone else, should so happen to have an edge (say, knows some Casino is weighting dice), he is then busted for “insider trading.” Wouldn’t want someone with actual knowledge about something meaningful, to contribute to more proper price discovery, after all….. After all, that would make redistributing wealth to the dumbest of the most reliably dumb and clueless, which is what the entire “financial industry” exists solely fro the purpose of, a bit more complimecated……
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