Housing starts jumped 14.8 percent in November led by single family construction, up 18 percent. Revisions were negative. 
Via incentives, mortgage write downs, and limited availability of existing homes to buy, the builders are holding up much better than real estate agents.
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000.
- This is 2.5 percent below the revised October rate of 1,498,000, but is 4.1 percent above the November 2022 rate of 1,402,000.
- Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 976,000; this is 0.7 percent above the revised October figure of 969,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 435,000 in November.
Housing Starts
- Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,560,000.
- This is 14.8 percent (±14.0 percent) above the revised October estimate of 1,359,000 and is 9.3 percent (±14.6 percent) above the November 2022 rate of 1,427,000.
- Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 18.0 percent (±12.9 percent) above the revised October figure of 969,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000.
Housing Completions
- Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,447,000.
- This is 5.0 percent (±15.1 percent) above the revised October estimate of 1,378,000, but is 6.2 percent (±15.2 percent) below the November 2022 rate of 1,543,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 960,000; this is 3.2 percent (±13.2 percent) below the revised October rate of 992,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 472,000.
Margins of Error
Note the huge margins of error in these reports, ±14.0 percent for starts and ±15.1 percent for completions.
Revisions were negative again, with October starts revised from 1.372 million to 1.359 million. Absent revisions, November would still be up a big 13.7 percent (±14.0 percent).
Major Boom-Bust Swings
Housing starts are a bit less than they were in 1959.
The major boom-bust cycles are largely a result of Fed policy. The results you see from 2020-present are almost entirely due to Fed QE then QT policy.
How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures
For discussion of the Fed’s role in this mess, please see How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures
The Fed is largely responsible for the Great Recession crash, but this one is totally on them.
The existing-home sale report is tomorrow and new home sales on Friday.
It appears to me that the oncoming results of the recession we have been in, but the Government has kept hidden via the usual tricks, has finally forced the Builders hands.
Anything committed to, with purchased land and partial supplies, needs to start being placed into the ground. Try to sell now, or hang on for awhile and sell later however possible if necessary.
The Builders see the writing on the walls, and they are not pulling Permits because they don’t have the money, manpower, or affordable decent properties to purchase. Why buy and build what you can’t sell? They also don’t want to tie up what little cash is liquid right now.
With the volatility caused by this current Administration, can you blame them? I sure don’t and job losses will mount quickly come late Spring and into the Summer months for sure, as a result.
God Speed
It’s fair to say that, as long as the government spends 7% of GDP as a deficit, that it is unlikely we will see a recession. Yes, some of that deficit is due to lower tax receipts, but that still stimulates the economy by definition. In other words, it’s stopping the recessionary forces emanating from higher rates to take hold.
Build less house with crappy materials and fat margins. Housing is the most unaffordable now going back 40 years! David Stockman’s piece on Housing today on-point. Hang the Fed.
More strong, but not too strong, economic data. Humming.
Usually when a bubble pops, buyers see falling prices and they hold out for even lower prices. This time may be different. Instead of falling prices, it could be interest rates, which are really the price of money. Seeing rates fall and knowing there is a lot of room for them to fall before reaching all-time lows, buyers may just sit out.
what is the rate of USA population growth? Does housing out-pace it, or vice versa?
With the 14M illegals FJB’s going to let walk into the country, it’s pretty damn high!
It’s like a switch flipped on overnight regarding home sales. Homes went contingent and pending this weekend after a frenzy of open houses with last week’s drop in interest rates.
Just wait til they cut next year. I previously predicted that the Fed wants a goldilocks 5% 30 year mortgage rate, and it looks like that is exactly what will happen. It’s not rocket science, even though I know a little bit of that. It’s just common sense.
We will float through a number of years with lower mortgage rates. The next “crisis”, 10 to 15 years from now, will bring about government backed 3% mortgages as tthe next housing bailout.
That’s what falling interest rates are good for. There’s nothing goldilocks about 5%. At 5% without a recession, housing will zoom higher, putting significant upward pressure on housing inflation that makes up 40% of CPI. And with 36% deficit spending $1.7T vs $4.7T revenue, JPowell will have to raise the FFR to induce a recession. I’m not sure about 10-15 years being the timeline for the “next crisis”. 2-3 years sounds more like it.
Unfortunately the economic politburo excludes home prices when measuring inflation. They manipulate the inflation stats to understate true inflation experienced by the middle class. This gives them justification to suppress interest rates so the govt won’t go bankrupt paying interest on their massive govt debt.
There was ~8 years in between the dot.com bubble and the Great Recession. There were ~12 years between that and the inflation crisis. Every time someone says the sky is falling and it just plain doesn’t. It’s easy ro stir up drama but harder to remember human life goes on.
Why do you think the next crisis is only 2 to 3 years away?