Once of the worst decisions of the Trump administration was to unilaterally tear up a nuclear accord with Iran.
The US defense department, US allies, and nuclear agencies all stated Iran was following the accord. But Trump said he could negotiate a better deal and failed.
When Trump placed sanctions on Iran, it did not have enough highly enriched uranium in which to make a nuclear weapon. Now Iran is close.
Talks advance in Vienna to revive the deal are now underway. Meanwhile, the U.N. atomic agency reports Iran has almost enough near-weapons-grade nuclear fuel for a bomb.
Iran, U.S. Close to Reviving Iranian Nuclear Deal
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran, U.S. Close to Reviving Iranian Nuclear Deal
After weeks of intense negotiations in Vienna involving the U.S. and Iran, and Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, senior diplomats said they were now within reach of an agreement that would restore the 2015 deal. That pact lifted most international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for strict but temporary restrictions on Iran’s nuclear work.
“We are very close to an agreement,” chief British negotiator Stephanie Al-Qaq said on Twitter late Thursday. “Now we have to take a few final steps.”
The U.S. left the nuclear deal in 2018, with former President Donald Trump saying it did too little to stop Iran’s pathway to a nuclear weapons. Since 2019, Iran has expanded its nuclear work. On Thursday, the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had doubled its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, leaving the country close to amassing enough weapons-grade nuclear fuel for a bomb.
In a confidential report circulated to members, the IAEA reported that as of Feb. 19, Iran has 33.2 kilograms of 60% enriched material, up from 17.7 kilograms in early November when the agency last reported. It is the most highly enriched uranium ever recorded for Iran.
Under a restored nuclear deal, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium would be capped at 202.8 kilograms until 2031, with enrichment levels limited to 3.67%.
The above WSJ article was written March 3. Here’s a news twist as of March 5.
Iran Nuclear Deal Threatened by Russian Demands
Please note Iran Nuclear Deal Threatened by Russian Demands Over Ukraine Sanctions
Fresh demands from Russia threatened to derail talks to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, as Moscow said it wanted written guarantees that Ukraine-related sanctions won’t prevent it from trading broadly with Tehran under a revived pact.
The demands, made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday, came as Western and Iranian officials said they were very close to reaching a deal to restore the nuclear pact, which lifted most international sanctions on Iran in exchange for tight but temporary restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear programs.
Advances in Iran’s nuclear work means Western officials have warned that if a deal to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement isn’t reached within days, it will make it impossible for the West to reap the main benefit to them of the 2015 agreement—keeping Iran months away from being able to amass enough nuclear fuel for one nuclear weapon.
It had always been understood that Russia’s specific role within the 2015 nuclear deal would need to be protected from sanctions. That includes receiving enriched uranium from Iran and exchanging it for yellowcake, work to turn Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility into a research center and other nuclear-specific deliveries to Tehran’s facilities.
However, Mr. Lavrov appeared to demand far more sweeping guarantees that could introduce major loopholes in the tight financial, economic and energy sanctions the West has imposed in recent days because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“We need a guarantee that these sanctions will not in any way touch the regime of trade-economic and investment relations which is laid down in the” nuclear deal, Mr. Lavrov told reporters on Saturday.
Trump’s Top General Says Iran Honoring Nuke Deal
Flashback, September 26, 2017: ForeignPolicy reports Trump’s Top General Says Iran Honoring Nuke Deal
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Tuesday joined other members of President Donald Trump’s cabinet in confirming that Iran is complying with the 2015 nuclear deal that has put a temporary halt to its nuclear weapons program.
“The briefings I have received indicate that Iran is adhering to its JCPOA obligations,” Gen. Joseph Dunford wrote in answers to questions in advance of his hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, using an acronym for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
April 19, 2019: IAEA Says Iran Abiding by Nuclear Deal
“Iran is implementing its nuclear commitments,” said Yukiya Amano, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The agency has had access to “all the sites and locations in Iran which it needed to visit.”
Iran Honoring the Deal?
- US State Department: Iran honoring the terms.
- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Iran honoring the terms.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran honoring the terms.
- Arms Control Association: Iran honoring the terms.
- All US European allies: Iran honoring the terms.
- Every other signee of the accord: Iran honoring the terms.
Had Trump made the same deal with Iran, most of his supporters would have cheered it. But Trump always thinks he can negotiate a better deal.
Trump undid the single best accomplishment of the Obama administration, punished Iranian citizens for their leader, and took much needed oil supply off the market.
Then Iranian enrichment increased at a rapid pace after Trump walked out.
So much for sanctions and the much over-ballyhooed art of the deal.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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Mish
@Mish, usually I find your posts agreeable or at least
defensible. Not so much on Iran.
I agree that we – the US – should take care of our own
interests. Not being a policeman. Also, that economic sanctions have limited
effectiveness.
That said:
The Iran deal will likely lead to further tensions and wars
in ME. Not stability and prosperity. Byproducts of the agreement will likely
include a nuclear arms race in the ME and intensifying Iranian proxy wars in
ME. How does that work for the US?
Presumably, Iran’s neighbors should have applauded
agreements ensuring no nukes. Though, they don’t. Why is that?!
The respectable list of agencies and parties saying Iran
“complied with the agreement” carries similar credence to those agencies
accusing Iraq of WMD-s.
Iran violated the NPT, which it signed willingly and
benefited from. The agreement cements the violations rather than rolling back
its fruits.
Iran has been conducting proxy wars across the ME for 30
years. The deal increases funding of these activities.
Iran threatens Israel with total annihilation and foments
racists agenda against Jews! Regrettably, this isn’t empty rhetoric to judge
from Iran’s attacks on Jewish institutions, Israeli interests abroad and Israel
itself through its proxy Hezbollah.
PS: I’ll be delighted to admit my concerns didn’t come to
pass in 5, 10, 15 years.
PS2: It would indeed be an irony that Putin’s war leads to
thawing relationships with old adversaries like Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba.
Everyone talks about keystone. I was under the impression the oil is getting here and the pipeline was just a cheaper way of doing it.
First we
just need to pump a bit more oil and also let Keystone go through and we will
be ok. Without those we will still be ok if we cut use a bit. Our energy
situation is lightyears ahead of what it was twenty years ago. Secondly no
Iranian deal will get done if Putin is involved period. He has less than zero
credibility with the involved parties. It won’t happen. Paradoxically this
crisis underlines the usefulness of a currency backed by the largest economy
protected by the largest military power. For the moment the Euro is handicapped
by the factors you mentioned which eliminates the Euro as a competitor to the
Dollar and for the Yuan, well it’s not even in the running. I put the
possibility of nuclear war above 10%. Since his war is not going well and it
will get even worse Putin might use it as his last joker. He is that type
of person.