Newmont Mining Corporation, One Gap Left to Fill, And it Will.

February 17, 2022

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10:07 pm

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22 comments

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Economics

Newmont Mining chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish

What is a Gap?

A gap up occurs when the market or an individual issue opens higher than the high on the previous day.
A gap down occurs when the market or an individual issue opens lower than the low on the previous day.

I am a big believer in the theory that most gaps fill. Blue boxes are closed gaps, the green box is an open one.

Gap Magnets

*TSLA chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish*

I expect that open gap will easily fill in the bear market that has started.

People have no idea how totally insane this stock market blowoff top has been.

Pick nearly any tech stock. Look for gaps and expect most of them to fill. It’s not just technology.

I will have more on that theme tomorrow morning covering S&P 500 targets.

Gold is Cheap

The key takeaway for this post is “gold is cheap” technology stocks aren’t.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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granite

3 years ago

Mish, I’ve never been able to see any rationality behind technical analysis. But the other day you said something to the effect that it works because most people believe it works. That’s the first logical thing I’ve ever heard for why it should work – if everybody’s doing it, it will work.

Now about this gap filling. What could possibly be a rational reason for why that would happen, except simply that the market goes up and down – a lot.

goldguy

3 years ago

Just buy Wesdome and wait for the buyout…only a matter of time

KidHorn

3 years ago

I prefer to hold precious metals instead of miners. Miners can be risky. If things work out for miners, the payoff is higher, but a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

Mish

3 years ago

Do readers want more specific posts on some mining plays?

A couple of friends warned me against the idea

Gator Break

3 years ago

Reply to Mish

I would appreciate it also, realizing that it is not financial advice, etc …

Doug78

3 years ago

Reply to Mish

That’s your decision. Myself I don’t come here for stock tips because I have other sources for that. I come here for the macro insights that you provide.

vanderlyn

3 years ago

Reply to Mish

sure. be nice to see what you are thinking. love your blog. has been a rare place to find truth and sophisticated analysis of macro trends………..

Eddie_T

3 years ago

Reply to Mish

I constantly screen miners, but with limited funds I have to pick and choose….one from column A, one from column B, etc.. I’m always interested in your picks. I respect that you might not want to share everything you’re doing on a public blog….but sure.

I will be leaning into the large caps with cash flow and dividends for a while, and waiting for possible better entries for any new jrs. I have enough lottery tickets.

Six000mileyear

3 years ago

I looked at a longer chart of Newmont for Elliott Wave patterns. I agree the recent gap MISH pointed out will be filled as wave 5 from the lows in August 2015 comes to an end.

Tesla looks like it has just completed a 4th wave flat that began from November 2021 highs. That leaves wave 5 to challenge all time highs. In doing so, the chart will start to transition out of a parabolic spike and more of of a consolidating, grinding top.

MPO45

3 years ago

And not a peep about Walmart’s stellar quarter? They don’t exactly cater to the high end consumer either. What about AirBnb and DoorDash? Are we on the same planet?

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/WMT “On Thursday said shoppers turned to its stores for gifts and groceries during the holiday season, pushing company’s quarterly earnings beyond Wall Street’s expectations despite supply chain pressures and rising costs.”

AirBnB beat too and I expect huge pent up demand for travel if covid goes away.

DoorDash has a spectacular quarter too.

As far as gold, neither a pandemic, housing crash, Ukraine war, 8 billion people on the planet or other calamity has ever made gold budge above a nudge but I suspect we’ll get a “Got Gold?” post soon. Bring on the doom and gloom!

FlyNavy1

3 years ago

Gold finally gets momentum as the Fed starts to hike. Weird man.

Bam_Man

3 years ago

Reply to FlyNavy1

They are so far behind the curve that it is just dawning on the majority that they have no intention of seriously dealing with this inflation.

This Federal Reserve deserves no more respect than the Banco Central de Venezuela, and that amount of respect they are now well on their way to getting.

The Gold price is now telegraphing this to those who have the eyes to see it.

kiers

3 years ago

Reply to Bam_Man

and just for completeness, one should state that Gold in commoditized paper form is a DISadvantaged investment in the US securities laws: you have to pay regular tax, not cap gains.

Mish

3 years ago

Reply to FlyNavy1

gold often does poorly in this stage until the Fed actually does hike.

I is still in consolidation range though

CNNfakeNews

3 years ago

So, that large FB gap is gonna fill too huh? Hmmm…

Mish

3 years ago

Reply to CNNfakeNews

IMO – No

That is a breakaway gap

Bohm-Bawerk

3 years ago

I agree that the miners continue to be the big green in my portfolio lately. Great Bear was my best miner, bought by Kinross, 62% gain. Though everyone has been up lately. I have a lot of red in other sectors but I’m extremely hedged so I can watch days like today and sleep fine at night. I still call this gambling now, certainly not investing.

Eddie_T

3 years ago

Well played. For months I watched the miners I’ve been buying continue to drop while my O&G picks outperformed. I’m hoping (and it looks likely) now that the miners will see me through a few months of consolidation in oil and gas. If only uranium would start to move again….but that’s the longest play I’m in and I’m agnostic about big moves right away. Energy and metals are where the value is these days though. I think they have years of upside.

Cocoa

3 years ago

I can’t even tell what miners I own…they are getting snapped up or merged. I get a report from Barrick, and I am like, “I never bought that.” Juniors merging, seniors are on the hunt, AEM now offers a dividend.

Dean_70

3 years ago

Been holding NEM for years along with WPM and various others. WPM has been coiling in a MASSIVE wedge and is in the process of breaking up now.

Cocoa

3 years ago

It’s funny, Newmont has been snapping up some of my junior golds. Kirkland Gold merged with Agnico-Eagle. So the “depression-era” tendencies for Seniors to grab juniors to increase production is turning out to be true.

Cocoa

3 years ago

Reply to Cocoa

Barrick as well

Newmont Mining Corporation, One Gap Left to Fill, And it Will.

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