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Housing Starts Rise 1.4% in December But Single-Family Starts Decline 2.3%

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13 comments on Housing Starts Rise 1.4% in December But Single-Family Starts Decline 2.3%

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Building Permits    

  • Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,873,000. This is 9.1 percent above the revised November rate of 1,717,000 and is 6.5 percent above the December 2020 rate of 1,758,000. 
  • Single‐family authorizations in December were at a rate of 1,128,000; this is 2.0 percent above the revised November figure of 1,106,000. 
  • Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 675,000 in December.
  • An estimated 1,724,700 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2021. This is 17.2 percent above the 2020 figure of 1,471,100. 

Housing Starts 

  • Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,702,000. This is 1.4 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,678,000 and is 2.5 percent  above the December 2020 rate of 1,661,000. 
  • Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,172,000; this is 2.3 percent below the revised November figure of 1,199,000. 
  • The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 524,000. 

Housing Completions 

  • Privately‐owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,295,000. This is 8.7 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,418,000 and is 6.6 percent  below the December 2020 rate of 1,386,000.
  • Single‐family housing completions in December were at a rate of 990,000; this is 3.9 percent above the revised November rate of 953,000. 
  • The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 299,000. An estimated 1,337,800 housing units were completed in 2021. This is 4.0 percent  above the 2020 figure of 1,286,900.  

Multi-Family Surge 

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate was 1.65 million starts and 1.71 million permits at seasonally-adjusted, annualized rates.

Permits were well over expectations but of the 9.1% jump in December, only 2.0% was in single-family units.

Housing starts rose 1.4% but single-family starts declined 2.3%.

Completions lag due to delays in materials and equipment as well as labor shortages. 

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Mike Shedlock

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13 Comments
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ohno
ohno
4 years ago
At one time I thought being 15 miles from the nearest city of 1500 people was far enough.  Not anymore.  Houses popping up all over the countryside.  Only gd thing is a lot of them buy large amounts of land so not too many developments but bad enough.  Try calling city folk that move to the country that are a mile or so away neighbor and watch their facial expression lol.  One of them bought 5 acres and has the entire perimeter fenced in with 6′ tall security fence.  I suppose he will get chickens and start chopping wood by hand next.
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ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Reply to  ohno
Id also like to add I dont care to see the entire country side riddled with houses.  It used to be free and easy going.  Now all you see are no trespassing signs.
We don’t have a housing problem.  We have a population problem.  Oh but let’s keep letting them in.  Disgusting.
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1-shot
1-shot
4 years ago
One thing’s for sure, we’re not building nearly enough single family homes in this country to even come close to meeting demand… and there’s not enough developed land to build on either. Which means higher home prices and more renters.
Interestingly enough, homeowners insurance rates will probably play a bigger role in affordability going forward, than interest rates. Double digit increases every year. Random cancellations and demands that homeowners make major updates or face nonrenewal.
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ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Reply to  1-shot
God forbid you live in a tornado state.  We’ve had one come close to our place around 30 years ago.  A major one went by 30 miles from here around 3 years ago and our home owners doubled overnight.  
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
The water is so muddy I can’t see the picture clearly right now. Building apartments is completely different than single family, especially the way capital is raised. Some of the large projects might have been in the pipeline for a long time….and on single family, they way they book “starts” when they buy the lots…..is very misleading.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
It’s only 1 month of data. We’d need to see a longer timeline (a year or two) to extrapolate a real trend.
On the other hand, housing starts overall rising while single family homes decline makes sense based on an aging boomer population that needs to eventually move into apartments, nursing homes as they age. But it’s way to early (as I noted above) to say that’s the reason.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Census Bureau has a Household Pulse Survey.  A lot of data and tables.  On number of households ability to make next months rent.
Week 40 … data collected between December 1st and December 13th
Not at all confident … 6,491,367
Week 41 … data collected between December 29th and January 10th
Not at all confident … 8,476,025
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KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Doesn’t bode well.
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RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
“Multi-Family Surge”
Los Angeles doesn’t have much land left to build single family. They also want to eliminate the single family homes that line some of ridges of hills in the city. The state has taken over local zoning laws which prohibit other than single family homes. Home owners are now getting ads in the mail from companies which build back yard apartments.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Seems building apartments would be more profitable for a given piece of land. Given you have enough housing demand to fill them.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
They have an enormous area that is post apocalyptic looking… they should raze it and rebuild.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Weather play a role?
Census breaks country into 4 regions.  Compared to December 2020 Midwest and South flattish with West down.  By far biggest jump in Northeast.
“The December contiguous U.S. temperature was 39.3 degrees F, 6.7 degrees above average, making it the warmest December on record and exceeding the previous warmest December in 2015.”
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KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
It was warm in December. January is and will continue to be below average. We had something similar a few years back. I had rose blooms on new years day. And then they froze and stayed frozen until March.
We had a persistent ridge in December and now we have a persistent trough.
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