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In the Next 10 Years, Nearly All the Population Increase Will Be Age Group 65+

Massive Wave of Boomer Retirement Underway

The first chart highlights the current wave of boomer retirements. Covid and a soaring stock market is goosing the trend.

Population Totals

Age Group Percentages

Census Bureau Projections For 2022

  •  As the nation prepares to ring in the new year, the U.S. Census Bureau today projected the U.S. population will be 332,403,650 on Jan. 1, 2022. 
  • This represents an increase of 706,899, or 0.21%, since New Year’s Day 2021, and 954,369, or 0.29%, since Census Day (April 1) 2020.
  • In January 2022, the U.S. is expected to experience a birth every nine seconds and one death every 11 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 130 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration increases the U.S. population by one person every 40 seconds.
  • The projected world population on Jan. 1, is 7,868,872,451, an increase of 74,235,487, or 0.95%, since New Year’s Day 2021. During January 2022, 4.3 births and 2.0 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

The above stats from Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year’s Day.

Looking ahead to the next decade the percentage of those 60 and over will rise from 23.29% to 25.93%. 

Meanwhile, the prime working age population age 20-59 declines from 52.06% to 50.75%.

And this is happening with public union pension plans severely stressed despite huge stock market gains. 

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48 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
So, as i’ve mentioned several times that I keep getting hit with negative vaccine news talking me out of the 2nd shot wouldn’t you know my best friend since grade school tells me today that his fully vaxed 21yo air force son went to the hospital yesterday with chest pains, breathing problems and difficulty walking. Another strike.  And yes, I am sure he’s been vaxed he’s told me he was and he’s been deployed on flight missions.  
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  ohno
This link is for you, and I think it maybe addresses your concerns better than what I found before. I like this guy. he’s good and a real source.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
“In the Next 10 Years, Nearly All the Population Increase Will Be Age Group 65+
In the next decade the census bureau expects the population will increase by 18.6 million. 15.3 million of that will be those 65 and older.”
——–
That isn’t an “increase”.  It’s a transition from one age category to another.
If this is considered a problem, then why try to save people in the hospital with Covid as the vast majority are over 70?
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
1. The unvarnished truth (demographically speaking, not morally) is that COVID has been a great culling that will make the West stronger, as we have been keeping too many people alive with all-advised heroic medicine. 
2. As a Boomer, my expectation is that even though Social Security and Medicare will strain the system, we will see smart Boomers (and GenX’s) accumulate a real deal of wealth over the next decade. 
3. Financial repression will be used to deal with the shortfall in government revenue.
4. Position yourself accordingly.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
“That isn’t an “increase”.  It’s a transition from one age category to another.”
We’re in the Dumbage now, dude. Get with the program. Things, like, go up. And down. And increase. Depending on what Dear Leader’s PR department feel like on any given day.
“If this is considered a problem, then why try to save people in the hospital with Covid as the vast majority are over 70?”
The problem is not saving people. Saving people is never a problem. Instead, the problem, is being so incompetent and inefficient hat the only means available to “save” the diaper-drooling classes; is to steal so much from more potentially productive people that those can no longer afford to have, house and raise children.
IOW. It’s the same fundamental problem which destroyed the West in every other way as well: Pure theft. In this specific case, one of  geezers who never saved a dime in their whole life; now waving their self-righteous flag, while cheering for Dear Leader to steal enough from other people’s children to make up for their lack of savings.
Nothing new. Nothing different. Just the same old, Fed and junta effected crass theft. Along with the same old , indoctrination driven illiteracy allowing it to continue unabated, right off ever cliff possible.
BowserB46
BowserB46
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Thank you, Jojo.  Other than people brought in from other countries by anchor babies and their parent, the aging boomers are not new population.  OTOH, if what Mish is trying to say is that more people are aging into the 65+ age group than are dying in that group, that is correct–but only for 65+, and not the total population.  Mish makes it sound like there are 15 million over-65 immigrants moving in.
LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
4 years ago
Is that why they (work with me here) are trying to thin the herd with COVID? 
Still _ucking sick with this crap a 2nd time and now developing ear infection….Fun times here
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
It’d be interesting to see how the wealth changes hands when that much of the population rapidly dies off in the next 15-25 years. Where does it go? Must be deflationary since they’re simply not enough X-ers, and the younger generations don’t have the wealth and plenty of debt. Thinking of housing and stock, mandatory distributions, etc. Maybe assets maintain their value through inheritance enriching the younger gen?
I’m young enough to see it happen, but too old to take advantage 🙂
edk38
edk38
4 years ago
Unfortunately that what happens when the gain-of-function research does not work as planned, however, let’s not give up hope the the vaccines my fix it…
BrookKing
BrookKing
4 years ago
The solution to this is so obvious: national service for the age group of 17-21.  At the end of 4 years the adults can choose college or continue working at a decent wage with the skills they’ve developed. 
Of course, the corrupt Democrats won’t go for it as they would lose their institutions of exploitation (student loans) and indoctrination (thought police).  Republicans won’t go for it since this might infringe on the freedom of businesses to exploit the youth.
benefits:
colleges can’t prey on kids — kids are all working.  Many colleges will go bankrupt after this enacted.
local community costs decline as age 17 is the last year of high school (balances out the all day kindergarten)
Social Security gets a bump as the new government workers are paid a good wage
Parents no longer have to save for their kids education as a public 4 year college or trade school is the reward of national service. (increase SSI by 2% for parents to stabilize Trustfund)
Mandatory Treasury Direct savings accounts for all National Service workers — screw Wall Streets retirement fee crap.  Maybe the FED can actually pay savers once they dump wall street rentiers
State Banks — All the projects using National Service members are funded via state banks which all states will be required to have.  Another, screw wall street and the bankers move
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  BrookKing
You didn’t define “national service”. 
Military?  
If so, talk about a can of worms.
BrookKing
BrookKing
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
The military would be an option for direct service, but I think there would around 10 million people in service at all times so that far exceeds the military needs.
Could easily have national service members not in the military who work under the direction of the us corps of army engineers.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  BrookKing
US active duty personnel 1.3 million.  Total.
Per BLS the civilian population ages 18 and 19 years alone > 3 million
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
I do think National Service would be an absolutely stellar idea, but there should be alternatives to military service. Opportunities abound. They could plant trees. Many other excellent possibilities.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
US Government needs to live within its means.
You are talking about a massive increase in spending to pay everyone.  Who is going to pay?  You only have 2 options.  1) outright tax on population.  2) inflation tax.  
Count me out.  
BowserB46
BowserB46
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
The only way that wouldn’t be a tax burden would be if that “service” was currently existing jobs.  As the lower end of the government employment spectrum got promoted or retired, those low-training jobs could be BrookKing’s service jobs.  The low end positions are probably high turnover anyway.  According to The Hill, the federal government employs 9.1 million people directly (of which over 2.1 million are at a salary of $90,000+), although there is likely a similar number who are contracted.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Fix potholes in streets.  California streets are riddled with them and no one ever seems to do much about it.  Every once in a while, they will poorly patch some of the gross holes but the patches will only last a couple of months.
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
It would be nice if WALMART, with all their $$$$$, would start fixing their own potholes!!!!!!
LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
4 years ago
Reply to  BrookKing
I like the way you think
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  BrookKing
Compulsory  National Service isn’t socialism? Explain.
jiminy
jiminy
4 years ago
Reply to  BrookKing
Another name for slavery is still slavery.  My guess is we know who the slaves are and who their master is.
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Anyone read the ZH article stating deaths are up 40% in the 18 to 64 range?  I personally know 4 guys to drop dead in their 50’s in the past 6 months.  More reasons I haven’t convinced myself to take the 2nd shot.  Care to comment on the 40% increase?  They could say, or there could be, many reasons other than covid shots but I know a guy just recently to drop at work with a 105F fever after the 2nd dose and go to the emergency room where he was given tylenol and told to go home and wait it out.  Now how am I supposed to go willingly get this done?  I do see all the evidence on this site that makes it look good but this 40% article is really not helping me out.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  ohno
Yeah, saw that. The source of the ZH article said
“Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,”
and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily
working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that
have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we
saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter,
is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he
said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma
or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over
pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

So one perspective could be:
  • that age range has unusually high death rates
  • COVID primarily impacts those outside that range on the high end or obese
  • Vacc does have adverse impacts to heart and coronary health across the board
  • health in general has gone downhill tremendously as well
  • they see this trend only in Q3 and Q4 of a 2 yr pandemic
  • mass vaccinations started in Q2
All this said, they never mentioned any relevant absolute numbers, so again, a small sample can be twisted any which way as a percentage.
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
If it’s due to the vaccine, we’ll never get confirmation. Based on recent history, the current administration, social media and MSM will do everything to attack and discredit anyone claiming it is.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Funny you say that. My UofM research friend said that one sure-fire way to conceal any possible confirmation of vacc adverse effects is to mandate everyone get a shot so as to destroy the control population in a large scale statistical analysis.
Even if there are little to no near term effects, the premise is true.
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
For him to even say that would mean he believes it’s a possibility they are wiping us out with this crap.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  ohno
Wiping out, no. She makes the point that if there is no control population, you can’t statistically prove the vacc did things like increase heart disease or heart attacks or death.
Apologies, not that “destroy the control population” meant everyone would die 🙂
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
We may have to wait 20-40 years but everything eventually gets revealed.
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
When most of us are dead and those that are left will be bumbling old conspiracy theorists talking about old crap.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  ohno
The article is from an insurance company executive.  I posted this in yesterday’s thread on the artilce:
The article is interesting but lacking in detail.  He seems to be implying that there are more Covid deaths than are being recorded.  An insurer who has to pay out death benefits should have all the requisite info at hand to give a detailed accounting of what is happening.  The fact that he doesn’t makes me suspicious. 
davebarnes2
davebarnes2
4 years ago
Immigration can fix this.
Mozambique’s TFR is 4.78
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  davebarnes2
Fix?
How? … without lowering living standards …
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Reply to  davebarnes2
A lot of warehouses in my area are on the cuban and africa bandwagon.  I guess the mexicans have wised up to them.  I’ve ran into Africans that said they wish they had never come here.  I can’t imagine the congame that conviced them to come here.  Lavish beaches and palm trees, beautiful woman and fast cars.  Sounds like a joke but I actually got into a discussion with one working as a cashier in kansas who’s been here for over a year and asked me how close we were to a beach.  I told him about the lakes but he made it clear he’s talking about an ocean beach.  He has no idea where he’s at.
FlyNavy1
FlyNavy1
4 years ago
Stryker Medical (SYK) a good play on this theme.  All these folks are going to need new knees and hips.
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
Reply to  FlyNavy1
I know some of them.  Including me.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  ohno
You might look into adding the supplement NAC into your diet (see article below).  Also daily Glucosamine HCL/MSM.  I use both of these and have no knee or joint problems at all.
————
12 September 2018
An antioxidant might lead to new therapies for bone arthritis
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reality:  Aging / slowing population + gains in productivity lead to naturally occurring disinflation (“stable prices”* close to 0%).
Alternate Reality according to FOMC politburo:  2% inflation (uh, equals “stable prices”*).
*Federal Reserve Act lists stable prices as one of their mandates.
QTPie
QTPie
4 years ago
A few observations….
This doesn’t bode well for the US’ dependency ratio and govt. tax receipts.
Gawd help these retirees if actual company earnings ever start to matter again someday.
With respect to worldwide population growth… nearly all of the net growth is projected to take place in sub-Sharan Africa, which unfortunately is also the region which is least able to cope with the growth.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  QTPie
This would have resolve itself decades ago if we would have stopped feeding them.
Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill
4 years ago
America is approaching $30 trillion in debt and the system is broken as boomers put additional strain on things like Social Security. The US population growth was stagnent in 2021 with America importing less and less immigrants. With a growing aging population and a declining birthrate and immigration rate, America is in desperate need to new tax mules to keep the corrupt system propped up. 
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  Bungalow Bill
 “the system is broken as boomers put additional strain on things like Social Security.”
COLA for Social Security +5.9% for 2022.  
Give “credit” to Jay Powell (and other central bankers) for his insane monetary policy that enriches the top 10% at the expense of the bottom 90%.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
I wonder how many working people got that big of a raise?
FlyNavy1
FlyNavy1
4 years ago
Reply to  Bungalow Bill
Over 2 million illegals entered the country in 2021 in a thinly-veiled, deliberate attempt by Biden and Pelosi to create Democrat voters.  
I wouldn’t call that stagnant growth.
Greenmountain
Greenmountain
4 years ago
Reply to  FlyNavy1
Not sure of where you got your facts about the 2million, but tow points:
1.  Illegal people in this country do not vote contrary to the belief of some.
2.  And one of the interesting facts in last national election, all immigrants do not think alike – some are liberal, some are conservative. 
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Greenmountain
They don’t vote legally. At least until they’re made citizens or voting laws are changed. Two things democrats are pushing.
And 2/3rds of hispanics and over 80% of blacks are democrats. If we had a southern border with say Romania, there’s no way Biden would have an open border.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Fantasy. Your guy lost. Stop this psychotic drama.
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 years ago
Reply to  FlyNavy1
The fact is that many of the illegals now coming across from Mexico are NOT Mexican. Or even from Latin America.
Working for peanuts as plantation slaves in the US is apparently looking less and less attractive to Mexicans.
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
In other words, baby boomers will be getting older and retiring.

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