The Census Bureau revised February seasonally adjusted annualized sales from 662,000 to 637,000 and reports March at 693,000. Expect more revisions.
New Residential Construction
The Census Department released a heavily revised New Residential Construction report for March this morning.
- New Home Sales: Sales of new single-family houses in March 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000
- This is 8.8 percent (±17.2 percent) above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent (±19.5 percent) above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000.
- Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
- For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 477,000. This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate.
Note the margins of error in this report, 17 percent and higher. And sales are not that much greater than in July of 1963.
New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction
Allegedly, there are 477,00 homes for sale but 106,000 of them have not been started.
282,000 homes have been started and 89,000 are complete.
There are 371,000 homes started or completed. That is the most since June of 2008. Good luck with that at these mortgage rates, currently 7.43 percent.
New Homes for Sale Supply
From a fictitious number of new homes for sale of which 106,000 have not even been started, and a questionable and likely to be revised number of sales, the Census Bureau calculates a fictitious supply of 8.3 months.
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales resumed their slide in March after two-month rally to start the year.
On April 18, I noted Existing Home Sales Sink 4.3 Percent, Expect More Weakness
Housing Starts Plunge 14.7 Percent
Housing starts plunged in March, but for the past year, it’s really a tale of two markets, single-family vs multi-family.
On April 16, I noted Housing Starts Plunge 14.7 Percent, Multi-Family Very Weak For a Year
Multi-family construction has collapsed 42.2 percent since January 2023. In contrast, single-family construction is up 24 percent.
Expect more housing weakness with 30-year mortgage rates near 7.50 percent.
That March sales 2024 margin of error is huge! That means it lies between 746,500 and 527,500 (https://www.thecalculator.website/percentage-calculator) – so it possibly didn’t actually even go up!
new homes sales rise in springtime.
in other “breaking” news, water is still wet, and the sky continues to be blue.
can we PLEASE stop with the daily data point convulsions? most of these data reports are garbage, and ALL of them are REVISED beyond recognition just a month or quarter AFTER THE FACT.
Home builder stocks up sharply today.
Nobody likes good news, lol.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eLxgDEoj138
“No one lives here” New condo development empty.
Multifamily investments are at risk of being commandeered to house invaders. The government decides whether to pay you and reimburse you for damages. New York State is asking homeowners to take in these criminals, feed them, and clothe them. So it’s just another case of build it and they will come.
As I’ve always told my sons. “Interest rates come and interest rates go, but a shitty purchase price stays forever”.
What is the variability of revisions of this statistic?
Homebuilders are buying down rates. Increased sales momentum will continue. Buyers will refi once rates fall— another opportunity wor loan originators.
If that is a short-term rate buydown, the home buyers are going to be in serious trouble if rates do not come down.
And by the way, have you noticed sales are at a 1963 level?
Of all the St. Louis Fed charts out there the, “New One Family Houses Sold: United States” chart is my favorite; nothing but our debt truly shows the decline of the empire like the fact we can barely put together new home sales from an era when the US had about half the population it currently has today.
“once rates fall”
LULZ… good luck with that.
This is a complete CIRCUS . . . Any body who would make investment decisions based on this kind of data needs to have their head examined . . .
Election propaganda for regime media parasites and the NAR to peddle to the sheeple…..
Even thought the economy is running hot, I went ahead and bought back SPY puts for September 2024, the same ones I sold for a 20% profit on Friday for even less than the first time I bought them. I’m using this as insurance policy against mayhem.
If PCE is red hot on Friday, things could get very ugly very fast as the Fed will need to look at hikes to hammer down the economy.
Money is easy to make on volatility just go short and long on pretty much anything. …$…$
Another site I follow just went bearish on SPY (moving to cash) this past week after being long SPY since January. So I have a feeling that your Sept put calls are going to pay off.
We are long overdue for a big correction….I also sold some calls on oil stocks just in case.
This isn’t Reddit. Nobody cares about your options trades
Those of us who care about improving our financial position like to see investment recommendations. Have you got any?
You guys are all about your Trump love.
DJT stock down about 10% today, btw….
not a single DJT ref. in the whole thread… yet here you are projecting your DTS.
someone is living in YOUR head, rent-free.
I hope you’re correct because I still have some significant cash (actually t-bills and brokered CDs) on the sidelines that I’d like to rotate into equities. However, it seems to me that SPY keeps making higher lows and higher highs. I think we could see a pullback to the 4800 range, but that’s about it. A move like that would also provide better optics for the Fed to squeeze in a rate cut i.e. market not at all-time highs. But a huge (like 20%+) selloff? Not in my opinion ever again in our lifetimes.
Aren’t we hyper concentrated on just a few stocks that are propelling these new highs?
Sounds like you’d really rather be in Vegas betting on the dice or horses but have figured out a way to gamble on Wall Street. Congrats. Either way the “house” always wins
Obviously you don’t understand that I am the house.
Blackrock?
$127,000 annual salary needed to buy a median priced house in Boise, ID ($90,000 is the approximate annual household salary in Boise, ID and I fully do not believe that number).
Median priced new home in Boise is $510,000 and at a 7.5% mortgage rate with 20% down (Good luck with 20% down):
$3,253.60 Monthly Payment for a new home in Boise, ID (~$40,000 a year).
My mom lives in Boise and will likely be moving within 6 months and selling her home.
I like very much that she bought 9 years ago and is selling this year. Excellent timing as her home has tripled in value.
My house went from $160,000 to $500,000 in 9 years. 2015 – 2024.
It’s not worth that much but there you go, triple.
Well, Boise is a nice place. Good conservative state without any crazy politics.
The Boise River walkway is a wonderful place to exercise, take the kids bike riding, fish (I’m an avid trout fisherman) and relax. Also, the mountains are very close.
Honestly, Boise is the only major city that’s in the intermountain west. I grew up in Idaho Falls and thought it was a big city but it’s obviously not, though nice as a gateway to the Tetons and Yellowstone.
If I had to retire in a place where there were mountains, Boise would likely be near the top of the list. I hope house prices come down before then. Maybe I’ll inherit a home, who knows.
FYI – Boise is turning hard for Blue politics. Idaho will certainly remain a deep Red state for the foreseeable future, but the BlueCity/RedState dynamic has infected Idaho just as did in WA, OR, NV, CO, etc.
Idaho will now have to “beat the odds” to avoid the ruinous fate suffered by their neighbors.