At least four sites have interactive maps that let you make changes to determine who will win in November. My lead chart represents my base case. Economics explains why.
Interactive Websites and Features
- 270toWin: The 270toWin site lets you change states at will. But it offers no parameters you can change to see the impact. This is not a serious site for playing “What If”.
- RaceToTheWH: RTTWH is a sprawling site with various interactive features. The sprawling nature of the site makes things complicated. The link shown lets you adjust the national vote for Trump or Biden. But national trends will not decide the election.
- Wall Street Journal: The WSJ site is paywall protected. It lets you adjust education, race, gender, age, and turnout. And it lets you adjust for third-party votes. But all the adjustments are at the national level.
- 538 Nate Silver: 538 is easier to use than WSJ. And it’s free. But like the WSJ, it does not let you select states individually.
Recommendations
If you are going to play around interactively, start with 538. If you want an up-to-date forecast try RTTWH.
First, you need a set of polls that breaks things down by education, race, gender, age, turnout, and third-party votes.
National trends will not decide this.
Swing State Polls
I started with the New York Times/Siena Likely Voter Poll of the Presidential Battlegrounds from April 28 to May 9.
However, starting with the above poll and applying the percentages at the national level gives entertaining but laughable results.
For example, Trump won California. In fact, Trump won every state but Hawaii, Massachusetts, DC, and Vermont.
That won’t happen. So we really do need breakdowns by state.
Also, Income data is going to be very hard to find. So 538 needs to remove that parameter and adjust accordingly.
Starting All Over
Starting all over, I played around with finding the minimum change consistent with the NYT polls that would give Trump the win.
For example, consider age groups 18-29 and 30-34.
Biden clobbered Trump in 2020 in age group 18-29 by 29 percentage points and age group 30-34 by 24 percentage points. In the swing states, Trump is ahead!
The 2020 election had Biden ahead of Trump with Black voters by a whopping 82 percentage points. Now its down to 58-12 (46 percentage points).
These numbers include RFK.
A modest shift of 18-29 year-olds from +29 to +24 for Biden is enough for Trump to win the electoral college 272-262, flipping Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.
If we also make another modest shift in age group 30-44 from +24 to +20 for Biden, Trump wins 291-247, flipping Pennsylvania as well.
Bear in mind the swing state polls have Trump winning those age groups.
If we also adjust the Black percentages from Biden +82 to Biden +69, then Trump adds Nevada and Michigan making the electoral college vote 312-226. Yet, Biden still wins the national vote 50-48 causing howls.
Something like this is my base case and It’s my lead chart.
Why the Shift in Young and Black Voters?
I have addressed that question several times, but some new readers may not understand what’s happening.
Blacks constitute only 14 percent of the voting age population, but the swings toward Trump are so huge they could decide the election.
For discussion, please see Swing State Poll Shows Black Voters Abandoning Biden In Huge Numbers
While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. There isn’t comparable WSJ swing-state polling from 2020, but Trump received votes from 12% of Black men nationwide that year, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate.
Housing and inflation is the top issue. The cost of rent has gone up for 32 consecutive months by at least 0.4 percent per month according to the BLS.
Generational Homeownership Rates
The Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report shows Millennial homeownership seriously lags other generations.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower still.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds?
A: Rent
Renters Will Decide the Election
I tie everything together in my post People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Q: Who are the renters?
A: Young voters and Blacks
That fully explains the massive shift in the polls among younger voters and Blacks. Factor in the immigration mess and a landslide is not out of the question.
It would be quite ironic if the real estate tycoon won the election thanks to renters.
Buying four magic eightballs does not produce better results, it just costs four times the price of a single magic eightball. Magic eightballs can be entertaining, but no intelligent person puts any faith in a magic eightball’s “expertise”, much less four of them.
We have two octogenarians, neither of whom plans to pay the debts they accumulated during their allegedly productive years.
Biden hates America and is trying to bring about Marxism. Trump is going to shout and interrupt and write annoying tweets. Both will leave this realm and leave behind at least $40 trillion in unpaid debt and a long list of problems that didn’t exist when they came of age.
Is Biden really going to run? Do the interactive websites cover this? What is the true deadline for yanking Biden?
good question
related: if they yank Biden and put in their star child Newsom, will skipping over Kamala irritate black & female voters? to the extent that some don’t vote or vote Trump?
Kamala would probably lose bigger than Biden will, so there’s no point with that swap. But swapping with Newsom risks pissing off the base. So they’re in a bind.
Yes, Biden is going to run, unless a serious health problem crops up. Stop listening to the chattering classes from NY and DC. It’s idle gossip.
I thought they were going to replace him but I don’t think Jill will allow him to step down as she likes all her perks.
In 2023 RRP poured in $2T liquidity into the market. Raising FFR to 5.5% sucked liquidity, but Biden poured it back into several swing states.
In construction is down, bc rental cap is shrinking. Landlords sucks less.
Home ownership, the old American dream, is less desired than ever before. It’s all about liquidity, not about rent. Boomers are spenders. Gen-Z are savers.
Blue collar workers have more money today than ever before. There are signs of cracks, but they aren’t pouring in. Both Trump and Biden are old, tainted and transitional candidates. Trump/Youngkin, or Trump/Scott have more appeal than Gamala/Biden.
Still too early imo.
Although I am a conservative who will vote for Trump, I do not think that Trump will win for two reasons. First, in the 2020 election, Democrats perfected the art of vote rigging. I am not talking about election counting irregularities such as voting machines and vote counting. I am talking about ballot harvesting with millions of ballots may have been voted illegally. Democrats have relaxed rules about voting and generally refuse to clean voter rolls. Once a ballot is returned, Democrat policies make determination of illegal votes near impossible. With well established motor voting (and other simple registration methods), it is easy for ineligible people to obtain ballots.
Second, Biden has bought off large parts of the electorate. Although enthusiasm for Biden is low, the trigger point for many voters is free government money. Three of the largest vote buying schemes are student loan forgiveness, massive Obamacare subsidies, and green energy subsidies. There are many other Democrat vote buying schemes, many involving cooperation between Democrats at the state and federal levels. Recipients of these subsidies will vote Democrat no matter their low enthusiasm for Biden.
Mish has a good point about renters, many unhappy rent increases and inability to afford homes. I do not think that this group is large enough to overcome vote rigging and vote buying.
it seems like a lot of the 2030 insanity push(evs, climate etc) has a lot of backing and investments and they certainly need Biden to stay put. Summary: we’re screwed.
Everything is rigged when you lose right ? And Republicans never buy votes too right ?
Go with it. I’m prepared to flip as many millions of votes that it takes to keep Biden in the OO and the right triggered as all get out.
I’m in the secret vote bunker with a crew of illegal aliens flipping mail in votes RIGHT NOW! George Soros paid us each 11tybillion dollars to git’ er’ done!
Nowhere close to the Democrats!
Just keep an eye on the 7 swing states. The other 43 don’t really matter because we are 99% sure how they will vote!
It must be a very dull day when there’s nothing to do but fool with AI chat bots and these brainless polls.
PA, WI, MI, AZ & NV are already stolen.
throw these five states into Biden’s column & re-calculate.
DJT will have to win Blue states, because most of the swing states are absolutely rigged – the dirty work has already been done.
Another fake result will not be accepted by the citizenry. The benefit of the doubt was extended ONCE, but Americans aren’t (that) stupid.
Isn’t it generally the party in power that is in a position to rig elections?
What I like most about us evil Satanists cheating the vote in 2020 is that proud conservatives never ever tried to catch us, they just insisted their narrative is true without even proving it factually to themselves. That’s AWESOME.
They’re so stoopid. Evidence literally everywhere… there’s a piece hanging from my coat rack ffs and another one in my sock drawer…. and they cannot produce any evidence! They are not worthy of their orange incontinent love object. They have failed him.
more ballots than registered voters in 16 urban precincts across six states… IOW, rigging/steal was a mathematical certainty.
partisan judges didn’t allow evidence into court… for “lack of standing” – a subjective, not legal, standard.
you wouldn’t know any of this because you watch cable news & eat the garbage they feed to you.
Crooked (RE: partisan) judges never allowed (mountains of) evidence into court/record… for “lack of standing” – a subjective standard that cannot be challenged.
You have NO CLUE.
I have no idea who is going to win (meaning I trust the betting markets as the best predictor). But I know for sure that if Trump loses once again fair and square like in 2020, we will have a constitutional crisis called Big Lie II. Although, this time Trump will have to launch a coup against the US Government from outside.
Vlad will cross the Thames when nobody is looking on election night.
What if I told you that you’ve been lied to all your life (as I was) about this boogeyman known as “Russia”, and that you fell for the programming?
Judging by comments here Trump never lost , never did anything wrong and is always right. He’s also never been in a tanning booth or cheated on his wife !!
That’s just an appetizer, wait until they reveal all of their deepest held beliefs.
He did plenty wrong, and some right, but for sure he didn’t (really) lose in 2020. (And I’m a likely Kennedy voter.)
Somehow, the deep state wins 100% of the time.
Yep and nothing changes for the better for us on Main Street.
Only a fool would continue to believe that a proud conservative gets a fair shake ever in the USA
Is the deep state in the room with us now?
No election, but Hillary will be the next president and Governor Fatso vp.
Avery, what are you smoking?
If Biden wins then we know one of two possible facts. The electorate are brain dead or the election was rigged once again. I rest my case.
Another fake Biden win is going to shut down the country indefinitely. There will be millions of people camped out in DC preventing the affairs of the nation from moving forward (not that they actually move “forward” anymore). I also suspect that many States will choose to simply not recognize the final result as legitimate.
What happens when all those people don’t have food or water, and Army weaponry trained on them?
The only case you have is the basket case that is you. Saying things don’t make them true… even if you keep saying them over and over.
Where’s the chart that shows Biden is brain dead?
Trump’s appearance at the Libertarian Party convention and their absurd nomination of a complete wacko for president will send 2-4% of the vote to Trump. That may be all he needs to wrap up the general election.
It’s been sealed for months. Black males and a few kids are all he needs and he has them now (finally). All he has to do is not drive by any grassy knolls in a convertible for 5 months (well, 5 months and four years).
I know maybe 2 dozen black males. None of them are trump simps. You’ve been lied to, again, and believed it, again.
You’re just not very bright, are you?
…and stay in court, gain sympathy, don’t get overexposed. TDS is real.
I agree 100%. It was a stroke of genius for Trump to show independent voters who were considering a protest vote what kind of wackos have taken control of the Libertarian party. The Mises branch of the party is almost 50% and they will vote for Trump. He needs to keep going to places like the Bronx and the Lib Convention. It showed his courage and keeping cool under fire.
You do know they booed him the whole time, don’t you?
Him standing there applauding himself, looking like he wanted to cry… chef’s kiss!
The Haley people won’t vote for him either. They know he’s reheated garbage.
You think they’ll vote for Biden? Doubtful.
Nope. But they won’t vote for the skid mark slob.
The Trumpen Proletariot. Marx was fat, sweaty and reeked of sausage fat and rotting cabbage.
Replace cabbage with hamburders and you have trump.