Video Instruction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atzEe-o8_zs
The video uses Florida in a very flawed manner.
You can Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election
Do It Yourself
Let’s change one state, Florida.
Results
- A change in Florida dramatically changes the forecast elsewhere, flipping Arizona and North Carolina as well.
- Arizona went from 67-33 Biden to 74-24 Trump.
- North Carolina went from 67-33 Biden to 69-31 Trump.
The inherent problem is 538 made no distinction between Trump winning by 0.5% or Trump winning by 2.5%.
To the interactive model, a win is a win.
Moreover, the model appears to assume that we know the result in Florida, but have nothing but 538’s projections for the other states.
Arizona may very well be decided on election night. We will know something about North Carolina as well.
Changing Florida and Arizona
In the above example, I set Florida and Arizona, one for Trump and one for Biden. That’s not an unlikely possibility, in any direction.
Now the results are back to 83-16 in favor of Biden.
Early Vote Counting
Third Problem
The video example makes it appear as if this all comes down to Florida again. It doesn’t.
So no, we cannot say that if Trump wins Florida, he has a 40% chance of winning.
- The margin of Trump’s alleged Florida win certainly matters. 538’s interactive model says a win is a win.
- We will not magically see Florida in a vacuum.
- The video example over-emphasizes Florida. It is not that simple.
In practice, we will have partial results elsewhere and perhaps even full results in Arizona.
The interactive model seriously needs work. I suggest it be reworked to put in custom percentages instead of projecting winners.
Mish
Nate is very sensitive to his failure in 2016. Something tells me this convoluted visualization is meant to cover his back when his predictions go awry.
538 doesn’t give predictions, they give probabilities. They gave Trump a higher chance in 2016 than I think people who don’t read the site are aware of.
Probabilities are nonsensical in this context; 538 gives predictions masquerading as probabilities. I gleaned this from the book Radical Uncertainty by Kay and King. Mish was successful in forecasting 2016 and continues to be an exceptional forecaster because he is especially good at figuring out what’s going on in areas that ares that dynamic, unstable and infinitely complicated, which are not suited to modeling let alone to probability analysis.
This election is one-time, binary event. Biden wins or Trump wins. The space shuttle explodes or it doesn’t. The probabilities are nothing more than expressions of confidence in a qualitative way. 538 might as well say “I’m very confident Biden will win, or I’m very very confident, or on a scale of one to ten I’m confident level 9. “ Odds are not helpful.
LOL ok.
Something tells me you don’t know how statistics and probability is work. Because Nate was pretty spot on, he gave trump almost 30% chance at winning… On top of that he accurately predicted other major election cycles. So I don’t know what you’re smoking…
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I played around with the 270towin map yesterday. My takeaway was just that there is still more uncertainty than I was thinking previously….just based on the various possibilities that could happen.
I think Denninger had a shot of scotch for every “C’mon, man” the other day.
Rarely comment – if ever, or “long time listener, 1st time caller’ – MISH keep up the good work – read you for more than a decade – appreciate what you do.
From an outside point of view – Canuck from the great white north – I will be so glad when this US election is over. Americans are the best neighbours we could hope for, but oh my, your elections are a mess and tough to watch. I know you could have better candidates and do so much better……just saying.
Anyhow, I wouldn’t want an outsider commenting on our elections wrt to whom we should vote for, so I certainly won’t do that. I have no horse in this race. However if it makes anyone feel any better, here is a quick link to mock our present clown or ‘Mr Socks’:
I’m sure some of you need a little laugh at this point. Hope it helps and you all get to vote and keep safe.
Hilarious – Thanks
I disagree that being an outsider means you don’t have a stake in the election. The US is such a big player on the world stage, and the president is such a big part of, everyone in the world has some stake in this election.
I personally bailed out of the stock market because I couldn’t stand the wild swings in OUR stocks every time trump opened his mouth.
I can’t wait for some form of rationality to return to American politics.
The 538 model uses demographic data to adjust the odds of winning other states based on the demos of states where you manually select the winner. That’s why a single-state change in a swing state like Florida can dramatically affect the overall race.