If Republicans cannot elect a Speaker, Senator Chuck Grassley could be the next President. 
The Next Speaker
If no one quickly wins the gavel, certification of President-elect Trump’s victory could be delayed. Rules then would make Senator Chuck Grassley the president.
That is possible, but highly unlikely in practice, explained below.
However, at least one Republican is a confirmed no for Johnson. A second no would do Johnson in.
How Mike Johnson Could Lose the House Speaker Vote
The Wall Street Journal reports How Mike Johnson Could Lose the House Speaker Vote.
What happens on Jan. 3, and how does the speaker vote work?
Under the Constitution, newly elected and returning House members gather in the Capitol. First they have to elect a speaker, which requires a majority of those who vote for a particular person—abstaining or voting “present” doesn’t count in the calculations. The declared candidate for Republicans, who will hold a narrow majority in the new session, is incumbent Johnson. Democrats back Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.).
If no one receives a majority of votes cast for a named candidate, more ballots will be held until someone wins a majority. When Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) ran for speaker in January 2023, he wasn’t able to secure the gavel until the early hours of the morning on Jan. 7, after four grueling days of voting and 15 ballots.
One Republican—Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.)—has said he would oppose Johnson, and several others have said they are undecided. All it would take to cost Johnson the speakership is for one more House Republican to vote for a different person, assuming all Democrats oppose him. But it is unclear whether any other candidate could win a majority.
It took three weeks of failed votes for other candidates before House Republicans elected Johnson in the fall of 2023.
What happens if no speaker is quickly elected?
Without a speaker, members can’t be sworn in, and the House can’t organize itself. A law dating back to the first Congress in 1789 requires the election of the speaker to precede any other business, including the swearing in of new members, the formation of committees and the passage of any legislation. The failure to elect a speaker could also delay the certification of Trump’s Electoral College victory, which by law is scheduled for Jan. 6.
Who are the key players in the speaker vote on Jan. 3?
Trump: Trump endorsed Johnson for speaker, boosting his prospects. But the president-elect’s support isn’t a guarantee that Johnson can lock up the needed votes. Johnson has been calling skeptical Republican lawmakers, trying to tamp down their concerns about his leadership.
Massie: Massie said he respects Trump but wasn’t swayed by his endorsement of Johnson. As long as Massie is determined to vote for someone else for speaker, Johnson can afford to lose only one more vote. This math gives all other members of the Republican conference enormous leverage to make demands of Johnson in exchange for their votes.
Rep. Andy Harris (R., Md.): Harris, who chairs the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has said he is uncertain of how he will vote. Harris has concerns about government spending, and he wants Johnson to commit to structural changes, including an overhaul of the amendment process, and giving priority to internal GOP debate before bills are introduced on the floor. He told The Wall Street Journal that a “significant number” of House Freedom Caucus members are similarly unconvinced.
Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas): Roy is a prominent member of the House Freedom Caucus, who, like Massie, endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Roy helped lead opposition against a stopgap spending bill that Johnson negotiated with Democrats in December. He also opposed a slimmed-down version of the bill that included a debt-ceiling increase Trump wanted. He hasn’t said how he will vote for speaker.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R., Ind.): Spartz has said she is undecided on whether to vote for Johnson. On Monday, she called for the next speaker to create temporary structures for the House to initiate government spending audits. Johnson said he recently spoke with her.
How could Trump’s certification on Jan. 6 as president be affected by a delay?
If no speaker is elected by Jan. 6, Congress likely won’t be able to ratify Trump’s election or the election of Vice President-elect JD Vance. If there is still no speaker, no functioning House, and no certification by Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, then the new GOP-controlled Senate’s president pro-tempore, 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), would become president, according to the presidential line of succession.
There is no chance of Grassley becoming president. Republicans could easily elect a caretaker Speaker long enough ratify Trump.
However, I have to ask again, what precisely is the Republican mandate, if it only takes two willing to stand up to Trump to derail legislation.
One might wonder Why Does Trump Support Johnson for Speaker of the House?
Q1 of the Day: Why does Trump like Johnson?
Q1 Answer: Trump now believes Johnson will do whatever Trump says.Team DOGE (Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy) are willing to go along with Johnson because Trump is. Otherwise, they would both be trashing Johnson.
Johnson vs McCarthy
In practice, Mike Johnson has proven to be much worse than Kevin McCarthy. I called that in advance.
Q2 of the Day: Seriously, is there no now one better than Johnson (who would take the job)?
Q2 Answer: What’s the definition of better?If better means someone who will suck up to Trump no matter what Trump wants, then perhaps there is no one better.
Otherwise, pull a random Republican name out of the hat and you would likely be no worse off and perhaps much better off.
And so, here we are.
It is going to be very hard to pass legislation without support from some Democrats and that alone likely means bigger budget deficits.
I find the American political system very bizarre. Considering that electoral college members aren’t required to actually vote for their constituents wishes, in some states, and if they go against the people, they can expect a$300 fine.🙄 The popularity contest aspect of the presidential race is understandable as it happens here in Kanuckistan too, but to a much lesser degree. Political parties run on policy platforms and less on jingoism and fame the President does. All politicians are LIARS of course. The US chain of succession makes no sense past the SOTH. (image President Pelosi 🙄) But a senator? No the law should require a snap election. Canada can show you how, we do it from time to time. 45 days, new gov’t and no year and a half of primaries. I’d be curious to see America with all the same constitutional rights for the people run in a Parliamentary fashion.
Simple, they stole those last few seats and you losers let them do it again.
The only question is whether enough false flags will occur to ignite the war against Iran in support of before or after January 20.
The House is ruled by Gerry Mander. Too many partisan “safe” seats means inadequate ability to respond to emerging national needs, contrary to the original vision.
The Senate is not vulnerable to gerrymandering since the boundaries are not flexible.
You don’t hate them enough
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-02/biden-to-block-more-offshore-oil-drilling-before-trump-arrives?srnd=homepage-americas
Let’s not spread hate, my hateful little minion.
I notice you can’t address the facts so you resort to childish behavior
“…What It Means”
What it means is that we still have a lot of work to do w.r.t. election fraud. We didn’t eliminate election fraud this past election, we simply overwhelmed it. The woke mindset today that would vote for democrats is a far smaller minority than they would have us believe, made up largely of fringe cults, the mentally ill or challenged, Hollywood weirdos, the entrenched drifters in DC and their foreign supporters such as China, Iran and Soros, who are our enemies.
A lot of centrists voted Democratic also.
Basically, the centrists need a new party.
Ahhh the sheer brilliance of the last 2 comments- The sole reason Repubs really don’t get my vote anymore- The more yrs go by as a registered Independent the more I realize around 250M need to leave the US so the other 100M can enjoy life 🙂 and living ..enjoy the partisan hack crap
Economists are already worried Trump’s ‘Maganomics’ will hurt growth in 2025https://fortune.com/2025/01/02/donald-trump-tariff-plan-goldman-sachs-growth-inflation/
Did you read the economists takes in 2016? They were off by a lot. When 97% of the media and 90% of the academics are left leaning, there really isn’t much to say.
Let’s see where consumer prices go. I think that is uppermost in the minds of the broad electorate that turned toward Trump, beyond any other labels (at least, for the middle class or below that). It would be an unfortunate opportunity for MAGA to miss, but I think it is very much up in the air, whose interests, between the very prosperous, and the workers, Trump will respond to first, and strongly. The left-behind voters are pretty fatigued I think, and perhaps not terribly patient at this stage (or can’t afford to be).
5.7 trillion in deficit spending made us all richer! That’s why I bought trump.
How did that even happen? Trump crushed it. The republicans crushed it in the senate. Trump even won the popular vote yet they lost seats in the house. Makes no sense.
Ummm… no. It makes perfect sense. First of all, Trump didn’t “crush” it. He won the popular vote by a margin of only 1.5%. The Republicans’ house seat lead is only 1%. They have a small majority in the Senate thanks to the fact that a voter in say Wyoming has 70 times(!) more voting “power” than a voter in say California (and even then since the Republicans have well under 60 seats in the Senate, their actual power in that chamber is extremely limited). So, actually it all makes a lot of sense.
The states that kept “counting” accounted for the drop in Trump’s lead and that the ones with no voter id. The other states finished on time so only hardcore Democrats believe the number you gave. Since you also complain about the electoral college we can see that you think the Constitution is just a piece of paper keeping you from power. In that we see what you really are.
Enough with this idiotic nonsense. There has never been any proof to support any of the claims you make regarding voter fraud.
The only reason to keep the vote open for days’ weeks and months is to make fraud possible. Don’t take us for fools.
”Possible” is conjecture. Provide proof.
There was tons of proof you just can’t see it on big corporate pharma news sources and have to take your head out of ye arse!
Reminds me of the House since 2022, a very small majority. There can easily be a split ticket: lots of folks disliked Trump (or were put off by whatever, the pandemic and his policies, or whatever) and voted specifically against him personally in 2020, but may well have voted GOP for the House. But trump had a different situation, different opponent, and updated message in 2024. Harris, or her message, or both, apparently didn’t resonate with a lot of voters wished for, but not reached, by Dems.
Why did so many states take days and weeks to count for the down ballot offices?
The bipartisan swamp turns up the suction. Quicksand, tarpits, nothing is out. It’s like climate change.
Polymarket, an online platform where users bet on the likelihood of global events, currently gives Johnson a 92 percent chance of retaining the speakership at time of writing. This is up from 61 percent on December 20 after Massie indicated he would not support Johnson.
If a Republican senator or two keep Trump from being certified for whatever reason I wouldn’t give them a ghost of a chance of them passing their next primary.
They’re not worried.
For now no because nothing has been decided. Anyway how would you know if they are worried or not?
Because they haven’t fallen in line with the others, or been silent. Even though it might cost them the next election.
If they don’t fall in line they will find the next primary difficult.
Unless their constituents like them more than they like Trump.
Real power is character.
LOL.
Congressman. Not Senator. This is the House we are speaking of.
Thanks. Makes it easier to prime them.
They could retain Johnson as Speaker until after the inaugural then kick him to the curb. Either way I have a fresh container of popcorn and a new popper!
Poppers were / are a helluva lot better than microwave popcorn.
Folks have politicized light bulbs, gas stoves, seat belts and motorcycles helmets, why not poppers?
“Otherwise, pull a random Republican name out of the hat and you would likely be no worse off and perhaps much better off.”
Hey Mish, if the Speaker can be anyone, is there any reason it cannot be a sitting Senator?
If it can be a Senator, I randomly pull Rand Paul’s name out of the hat.
TD
Oh, that’ll work. Fun to watch, anyway.
So Sens. Massie and Roy did not back Trump in the primary. How interesting.
Republicans don’t have a mandate.
House is weak, Trump did take popular vote.
First hundred days will set tone for midterms.
That I believe is why he front loads his administration, to get things done and develop momentum. Show the country what is possible and where it needs go.
Once confidence is gained that there is a future then his proclaimed Golden Age can get going.
Similarities to Kennedy Camelot is striking.
A mandate from heaven. Indeed
A mandate from me.
You give him a level of intelligence and planning that isn’t evident in his speech and conduct, publicly.
Yet here he is poised to reenter Oval office.
After how much Lawfare, how many assassination attempts, how much negative press, how much pollsters lied about results, how much three letter agency attempts to put him in jail, how much his own party tried to sink his boat, how much economic pressure brought to wreck his financial strength ?
yep your take on the matter must be right.
All the Dems’ stunts didn’t help them, either. They drifted off into a self-deluded echo chamber.
Wishful thinking with clowns and grifters in charge.
Clinton said he had a mandate in 1993 with a 3 way split in the vote. Mandates are what you make of them
Clinton lied about a mandate. Mandate is just a word. Without a big majority in Congress it’s meaningless.
Agree. Winning a majority of the popular vote doesn’t mean someone has a “mandate”. POTUS still has to negotiate with elected representatives, not the people, to get legislation passed.
Congress doesn’t have to care about any so-called “mandate” from the people. All they have to do is keep voting the way they are told so the story/evidence of them with the dead girl/live boy (or whatever scandalous thing they’ve done) doesn’t get released.
One other thought. With what appears to be a coordinated Terrorist attack by ISIS on US Soil, any GOP congressional member who gets in the way of Trump inauguration becomes Political Dead Meat.
Time is short, getting rid of Biden and sitting Trump in Oval office better take first priority.
National Security which includes Border Security comes before anything else.
The FBI cannot even bring itself to call it a terror attack. Sort of like when KJP said Biden is as sharp as a tack.
The Fib will probably try to tie it to Iran – even though Iran was instrumental in suppressing ISIS. The Fib even tried to tie their patsy, Crooks, to Iran. Because whenever Iran wants to assassinate a presidential candidate in the U.S., the obvious choice is a kid who works at an assisted-living facility.
This terrorist was US born and trained in the US military during Trump’s first term. What madness! Was Trump asleep at the wheel during his first term? Let’s hope his oversight of the military is better this time
He will be overseeing a golf course, just like last time. This is why I had to take over.
Homegrown or not, it was a terrorist attack. Unfortunately people can become radicalized, especially on the left and then resort to violence. Many such cases
More radicalization in the military happened under Trump than under Biden, according to the news. Here’s a specific example in NOLA. More hatred and derision under Trump, and it spreads, according to the news. Let’s hope that improves this time around
The terrorist was a deeply religious conservative.
He could ban Muslims from the military.
True, Trump started this type of hatred during COVID, maybe he will do the same via authoritarian EO during his second term. If you want to make sure, you should email your Republican Congressman and Senator
Really up to Trump to make some phone calls since he says he wants Johnson.
Everything else is Theater.
He’s been real quiet, doesn’t want to fan the flames. He just wants to get certified.
But we were told republicans were better at governing. You’re telling me that Trump might not even become president and it’s REPUBLICANS fault? Lol!
What a total clown sh!t show!
President Chuck has a nice ring to it.
Chuck is a cheap cut.
Chuck eye, though, is a tasty bargain.