Job openings have collapsed. And the number of quits confirms people are staying put. 
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report from the BLS shows the labor market continues to weaken.
Job Openings
- The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million (-556,000) on the last business day of December and was down by 1.3 million over the year. The job openings rate, at 4.5 percent, decreased over the month.
- The number of job openings decreased in professional and business services (-225,000), health care and social assistance (-180,000), and finance and insurance (-136,000).
- Job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000).
Hires
- In December, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million but was down by 325,000 over the year.
- The hires rate remained unchanged at 3.4 percent over the month. Hires increased in finance and insurance (+48,000).
Separations
- Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.
- Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
- The number of total separations in December was little changed at 5.3 million. The total separations rate remained unchanged at 3.3 percent over the month.
Openings and Quits
The number of job openings is still a bit higher than pre-pandemic but the numbers are inflated due to survivor bias and very poor response rates.
Strong and Weak Labor Markets
- Weak Markets: Job quits are lower than pre-pandemic numbers in Leisure and Hospitality, Accommodation and Food Service, Retail Trade, and Construction.
- Strong Job Market: Education and Health Services quits are higher than pre-pandemic, but steeply down from peak numbers. Demographics and illegal immigrants expanded the need for jobs in this sector.
- Neutral: Manufacturing is little changed from pre-pandemic numbers.
Across the board, every job category has weakened substantially since the peak, generally early 2022.
Hires vs Nonfarm and Private Quits
BLS Survey Response Rates
Response Rate Notes
JOLTS: BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
CES: BLS Current Employment Statistics – The Monthly Nonfarm Payroll Establishment Survey
Response Rates and Survival Bias Issues
- First, firms that go out of business don’t respond. This is known as survival bias.
- Second, larger businesses are more likely to have someone who routinely answers such questions.
- Third, businesses of all sizes are deciding they have better things to do than answer BLS surveys.
- Fourth, businesses that are doing well are more likely to spend the time than businesses that are struggling or understaffed
BLS Sample Sizes
- Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) : 97 percent of bobs
- Business Employment Dynamics (BEDS): 92 percent of jobs
- Current Employment Statistics (CES): 27 Percent
The above numbers from CES FAQ
Four Things We Know
- QCEW and BEDS confirm the nonfarm payrolls are substantially overstated and have been for about two years.
- The BLS Birth-Death model assumptions are very flawed vs the hard data of BEDS and QCEW.
- The Fed and economists are using highly unreliable and overstated jobs data to make interest rate decisions.
- The BLS needs a serious overhaul of its data collection and modeling methods.
Major BLS Errors
Every month, economists and the Fed rely on very poor BLS monthly data to make decisions despite major modeling errors, data collection errors, and survival bias issues by the BLS.
The lagging QCEW and BEDS quarterly reports highlight the flaws.
Bad jobs data (very overstated monthly as shown by QCEW) likely explains the discrepancy between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI),
US is Now Losing Jobs in Net Business Creation
On January 31, I noted The BLS Confirms US is Now Losing Jobs in Net Business Creation
I hope you appreciate just how messed up this is. For many additional details and charts, please see above link.
And in case you have not figured this out, trade wars don’t help.
I fully expect the job market to start deteriorating even in the demographic crisis we’re in right now. Trump has created too much uncertainty with his bi-polar or multi-polar fits on treaties/trade/taxes/tariffs/etc. Wouldn’t surprise me to see rounds of layoffs start and I think that’s what the whole new “Return to office” is all about, get people to leaving without paying severance.
There are clips of stores removing American products from Canadian shelves and that’s going to hurt no matter the bravado from Trump. I’ve read some areas in Mexico are doing the same. Both are making alternative plans at least for the next four years until he-who-shall-not-be-named is out of office.
No company on earth can adequately plan/forecast financial plans with uncertainty and volatility caused by Mr. Hissy Fit at the helm.
I also expect Social Security enrollment to spike as many more people suddenly decide to start taking social security early. I’m keeping an eye on the social security snapshot.
Congrats to MPO45v2 for getting a “stick to the top” viewpoint that is spot on. I believe the only other occurrence was by PapaDave.
Based on thumbs down I see TDS Type II is very strong here.
I wear those downvotes as a badge of honor. I know I’ve triggered at least 4 TDS II peeps today. They do it out of frustration knowing that I’m right and they can’t come up with any logical counter argument. Same way they project anger and hatred at you for stating the truth.
Keep up the good work, there is no place like Mishtalk anywhere.
They don’t think you’re right. Bless your heart.
They don’t think…..
I fixed it for you.
The COVID lies, vaccine mandates, lockdowns, BLM antifa riots, censorship, de-banking, corrupt media, corps and governments did major damage. People it impacted want retribution. That’s how the world works unfortunately when the tables turn.
Can you change to separate counts for the up/down numbers? That would be more useful than a summed number.
And how about listing WHO voted up/down as some other services do (Disqus, for example among others).
Seems to be hater bait. Looks like a solid take to me. Seems every accusation that Trump is not Mr Perfect, never did anything wrong ever, is met with a lot of spite and incredulity. Objectivity is largely dead.
Yeah, I can see this blog becoming a liberal echo chamber pretty quickly.
I guess you must enjoy liberal blogs then, you’re here everyday posting comments.
“bi-polar or multi-polar fits on treaties/trade/taxes/tariffs/etc” You’re implying this hasn’t already been though out and is just randomly coming from Trump. This guy has no idea what he is talking about and is just making an assumption. Its been 1 day and he is already wrong.
I think the implications for “Return to office” are going to be studied for some time.
Heard from an old buddy this morning (with a Statistics PhD) that has been working for the Census Bureau for 15 months. Was hired back then as a full-time remote employee (living in the Midwest and now with a new wife and mortgage). Has never been to Maryland in his life. But received one of those federal employee buy-out ‘deal’ letters with Trump’s signature that he must “return to office” in Maryland, or accept the buy-out, or resign.
I can (somewhat) understand the order for previously hired MD workers to RTO in MD. But to issue a RTO to someone to move halfway across the country that was never in office and expressly hired for remote work is another example IMO of the uncertainty and hardship being imposed on many people for limited gain?
Dell Technologies issued a RTO too and people were joking that a company that sells technology to enable remote work, online collaboration, etc can’t seem to do that itself meaning its technology is useless.
That’s why the whole RTO is a way to get people to quit while not having to pay out severances or unemployment.
Everyone has an excuse or special circumstance that they want to invoke. That isn’t practical or fair.
Unbelievable. The guy has been in office less than a month and you’re laying all of this on him. All I can say is bless your heart.
He’s in charge of government now, the bucks stops with him.
The response rate notes confirm to me that most government jobs data is so poor as an input that drawing more than very very macro historical arguments is a fool’s errand. About as honest and accurate is a USAID budget spreadsheet in 2024.
Good observation
5.5 million job hires in 2024 versus 5.9 million in 2019, and don’t pay attention to job openings since most are not real job opening announcements especially on Internet sites like Indeed.
Looks like 2025 is the year the Trump admin can expose how corrupt the economic statistics were leading up to the 2024 election.
All those jobs that came open as more Covid Vaxxers died and were maimed… and could no longer work…
Need to be subtracted from the openings… for obvious reasons
Maybe Elon can fix this? [lol]
Maybe another way to look at this data is the Fed has brought us back to the pre-COVID situation data range (which was pretty good economically) by starting to raise short-term rates – almost three years ago – without breaking anything in a big way (soft landing?)
Uncertainty makes it hard to invest. Companies that aren’t investing in expanding hire less.
The trade policies aren’t necessarily problematic. The chaos is very problematic.
Surely the geniuses is at the Fed are not stupid enough to use government data. Can’t wait for the don’t call me Shirley responses.
“BLS shows the labor market continues to weaken”
Or perhaps, now that Trump is in charge, the BLS has stopped hiding the bad news that has accumulated during the Biden administration?
I’ll wait until Trump’s labor secretary, Lori Chavez-DeRemer takes a look at our situation.
I’m sure DOGE can clean house at the BLS too.
Lol fake Joe’s fake job listings are drying up. Ever try to get one? Its like chasing butterflies
Looks like lots of jobs will open up when illegal aliens leave the country so this trend should reverse itself.
Are you eager to pick crops, cut meat at a plant or clean hotel rooms? What about being out on the hot sun 12 hours a day pouring asphalt on the ground or roof?
No no this guy is gonna get $35/hr to sit at a desk, just like all those illegals, riiiight?
Ignorant post. You’re low enough IQ for the job, you’re hired.
He will be when his kids are starving.
Yes I’ve worked in the trades for years in minus 40C to plus 40C so yea no problem. I also live off grid and cut 8 to 10 cords of wood per year and I’m almost 62 years old and still work full time. Not everyone is low energy.
That’s great for you Curtis, but it’s not the same for the vast majority of Americans. They don’t want to do that kind of work and you know I’m right.
Can’t argue with you on that point so they may need to be left with no choice so they develop resilience.
In a country full of 20 year olds, it’s possible but like you at 62, America is too old for that to happen and nothing is going to change that now.
Not just too old but also lacking many of those off the grid skills (farming, maintaining a well / septic system, repairing lots of stuff yourself etc).
Yes. I woke up to minus 32 with frozen water pipes and propane doesn’t run. Good thing I have a wood stove but it’s not an easy life. I still willingly choose it.
enjoy picking produce brosef
You’re low enough IQ for the job, you’re hired.
I could out work any Mexican any day of the week. I’m in a cabin in the forest and it was minus 33C this morning. Some of us like physical work.
Not many Americans. 80% of young people are unfit for military service, and they want in. Maybe pushups and running aren’t physical work?
I dont think the most of the immigrants arent going anywhere. Seems initially like the companies that hire them either cant afford to or dont want to pay more for Americans. They would say if we paid more to attract American workers, people wouldnt want to pay the higher prices we would need to charge. How do you distinguish the ones who really can afford Americans with the ones who cant? Surely the ones who do stock buybacks can afford to pay more, but there are plenty of small businesses that dont do that, although I bet a fair amount of corporate profits used for buybacks filter up from getting low cost goods and services from companies that employ immigrants.
Maybe someone can clarify this for me; I do not understand how GDP and GDI should be equal if savings are not spent or invested. If that is the case, should not GDP equal GDI minus savings?
They should equal (and do over time) because they are two measures of the same thing.
Products produced = income derived from those products +- inventory adjustments that net to zero over time.
The Philly Fed makes a strong case that we should believe GDI.
We don’t because GDI lags the already lagging GDP by another month and for some reason that I don’t understand by 2 month for the fourth quarter.
Thanks, I did not consider netting out over time