Job openings and quits, not impacted by hurricanes, put an additional spotlight on the poor October jobs report. 
The BLS released the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September on Wednesday. I am catching up today.
- At the March 2022 peak, there were 11,773,000 job openings vs an unemployment level of 5,993,000. There were nearly two openings per those unemployed.
- There are now 7,443,000 opening vs an unemployment level of 6,834,000. The unemployment level will soon top openings.
- Quits are voluntary separations. The number of quits is well below the pre-Covid level.
The number of openings is suspect. Many positions are fake or stale. Others exist only if the exact right person comes along.
In contrast, quits are hard data, representing actions, not words. Quits are a measure of ability to find another job at better pay or benefits plus retirements.
Given the surge of boomer retirements, quits show remarkable weakness.
Job Quits by Sector in Thousands
Job quits in Leisure and Hospitality, the overlapping Accommodation and Food Service sector, and Retail Trade have collapsed.
If you quit a job or are laid off, it’s not that easy to find another job.
Job Openings vs Unemployment
Again, that data is through September.
Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000
This morning, I reported Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000
Jobs were up a mere 12,000 not counting 112,000 negative revisions.
Employment fell by 368,000. That’s something I failed to mention so I posted an addendum.
The unemployment rate was steady only because 220,000 people dropped out of the labor force.
To three decimal places, I calculate the unemployment rate at 4.145 up from 4.051 up 0.094.
The unemployment rate is best viewed as an increase of 0.1 percentage points instead of unchanged.
Does fractal math both predict a 5 November 2024 global equity crash and a #45 presidential loss via the crash his proxy DJT? The jobs data is consistent with a nonlinear implosion. http://www.economicfractalist.com/blog/
there should be retirement numbers monthly
given 10,000+ boomers are retiring EVERY DAY or just 300,000 a month
Biden had a statistical gift of a job market and squandered it. In all categories, numbers are less than pre-COVID.
Hmmmm… Decided to look it up. Doesn’t match with what you said.
What President Biden Inherits – FactCheck.org
As President Joe Biden takes office, he inherits:
If the next administration rolls back gov debt smart money will trust this gov and move in, buying US gov bonds.
Lol!
was not Trump going to Venezuela ? Record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the U.S. after the electionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/wealthy-americans-plans-leaving-united-states.html
Smart money goes where it is treated best….
spent the day selling some of my favorite insurance stocks. some of them up 70% and it’s time to take money off the table. I am upping my cash position. I can feel the market fracturing day by day, money train feels shaky and my spidey sense is tingling.
This statistic does not necessarily portend a poor job market because the two stats are just two sides of the same coin. Job postings are down because less people are quitting (and therefore employers have less open jobs to post).
If you want to look at related stats which could give a more accurate “health” of the job market you can look at something like layoffs as a percent of total non-farm employment.
The whole point is that “quits down” is a behavior pattern that occurs over and over again, but only just before or in the early stages of a recession.
The relationship is not clear-cut. In the 02 recession for example the quits kept falling well after the recession was over. Currently the quits rate has been falling for 2.5 years without a recession.
Quits-Down indicates perceived weak economic future.
Employers want a sucker who has the maximum ability possible — the ability to land on his feet running — and to pay him next to nothing. Employers are like women — they all have a 500-point bullet list of desirable traits, until they encounter reality and realize that the candidates are not gonna be like that.
Plus, what’s so great about any one employer? In this, they’re also like women. No one woman is particularly better than another, and no one employer is especially different from any other. It is the job that counts. An investment banker in Boston is going to be treated far different and better than a migrant farm laborer in California. It also helps to be a white male. They are the most respected demographic slice, by far, and for good reason. White males make this world go ’round, properly.
There are all kinds of conditions for getting and retaining a job. First of all, you have to abase yourself in the job interview. We pretend that the job interview is a neutral test of your qualifications, when really it is about three things: (1) seeing if you fit the culture of the company; (2) seeing if the interviewer likes you personally; and most of all (3) setting the tone for a master-servant relationship as you, the supplicant, go to the master who has the money and the job to offer. As with everything in life, it’s better to hold the whip hand than to be the supplicant.
(You can read more of my writings by going to: dark-dot-sport-dot-blog where -dot- represents a period …)
Know how I know you can’t get within 100 yards of a woman?
Or he did and was married to one and never again. Lol
The third paragraph about HR selective torture techniques is spot on. HR is 99.9% women, so the previous paragraphs also apply.
“Employers want a sucker who has the maximum ability possible — the ability to land on his feet running — and to pay him next to nothing.”
That’s how Ohtani got a $700 million contract with the Dodgers.
To be fair, you’re taking that comment way out of context. Listen to the full clip. He’s saying that Liz, like her father Dick, is a warmonger. She wants thousands to go to war and face down enemies who have barrels focused on them.
So if she wants to be a warmonger, she can go to a war zone, hold a gun, and face down enemies who have their guns aimed on her. It’s not an assassination call, but this election has brought out the worst in both sides. Anyone on the Left siding with the Cheneys after years of bashing them are disingenuous.
There’s no room for an ounce of splitting from a singular thought without attack. A microcosm of today’s politics. Trash behavior exists on both sides these days. And it’s on full display in the closing weeks of this cycle.
The left loves the Cheneys now. Lmao.
Interpreting scripture?
“The number of openings is suspect.” Can anyone list one single government statistic in which we can have even a reasonable level of confidence?
Yes, $35.847 trillion in debt. It actually goes down to the penny.
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/
It’s a good thing the government has bankers on the other side of that accounting, otherwise it too would be suspect.
All the data seem to suggest a continued gradually weakening job market. A trend that started about 2 years ago. Looks like a “soft landing” or mild recession, unless some kind of black swan event happens that triggers a panic or ??
The risk of a Kamala presidency has all hiring and investments on hold.
Whatever happened to that ‘truck driver shortage’?
Oh, that’s right, it was a media-created fantasy that never actually existed apart from the month they were trying to force truck drivers to get vaccinated.
Any other ‘worker shortage’ that did or did not actually exist has been taken care of by the tens of millions of immigrants that have arrived since 2021 when Biden took office.
Wages suppressed, and rents and housing prices went to the moon with all the immigration.
Mission accomplished!
Used to get hit up by recruiters daily… now nothing for months. Definitely a sea change.
The sky is falling. Buy “cheep” tech stochs.
Buy everything because IJDM
????
It Just Doesn’t Matter
Nothing seems to
Not reading the news and buying everything is pretty good investment advice, actually.