The Big Unknown
Nearly a year into to the pandemic, the Big Unknown Is Where People Are Getting Infected.
- In Germany, authorities say they don’t know where 75% of people who currently test positive for the coronavirus got it.
- In Austria, the figure stands at 77%.
- In Spain, the health ministry said that it was able to identify the origin of only 7% of infections registered in the last week of October.
- In France and Italy, only some 20% of new cases have been linked to people who previously tested positive.
- In the US, we know even less.
Failure of Contact Tracing
Falko Liecke, city councilor for health and youth in Berlin’s popular Neukölln district, said his contact tracers often run into the problem that people who test positive “can’t remember or don’t want to remember” where they were exactly, and with whom, in the days before showing symptoms. A current time lag of up to a week in getting test results is making matters worse, he said.
Smartphone apps that warn you if you’ve been in close contact with someone who later tests positive are supposed to help address this problem, but they haven’t been widely adopted enough to be useful, experts say.
In France, authorities only began requiring restaurants to gather this information in early October, more than four months after the country emerged from its first lockdown. Even so, this information is rarely being used. In restaurant-dense Paris, local health authorities say they haven’t conducted a single investigation using customer data.
Key Points
- The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 in the U.S. reached 69,455, a record.
- The U.S. added more than 100,000 cases a day for the past 12 days.
- The daily death toll in the U.S. has averaged over 1,000 for the past seven days.
- The cumulative death toll is 251,000.
- Covid-19 deaths among vulnerable nursing-home residents are surging again, with the virus increasingly spreading to rural facilities.
Hot Spots
How is is Spreading?
- People don’t wear masks.
- They catch it but are asymmetric spreaders.
- They catch it and go to work anyway.
- They spread it to their family.
- Their kids spread it.
Despite over 250,000 deaths, a huge percentage of the population believes it it their right to go anywhere they want without a mask.
And they still believe Covid is some sort of scam.
Anywhere and Everywhere
The experts might be struggling but add it all up and the obvious answer to how it is spreading is Anywhere and Everywhere including church, bars, restaurants, schools, and stores.
Given eight months of Trump dissing masks and proclaiming Covid would soon go away, anywhere and everywhere was the expected result.
250,000 deaths is not a scam. It’s a tragedy.
Related Posts
- Ohio Gov. Restricts Weddings, Threatens to Close Businesses
- 24 States Reach Their Highest Level of Covid Hospitalizations
- Milan Crematory Can’t Keep Up With the Deaths
- El Paso Shut Down as 10 Mobile Morgues Fill Up
Also note 83% of Passengers Will Not Return to Old Travel Habits
Mish
SEWAGE it’s the Damned SEWAGE https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Sewage+COVID++Judson+Witham&t=chromentp&atb=v1-1&ia=web
SEWAGE it’s the Damned SEWAGE https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Sewage+COVID++Judson+Witham&t=chromentp&atb=v1-1&ia=web
Mish people get it, they go to work because if they don’t they have no money to buy food for their families! The same happens in Mexico where the working poor, sick or not, have to go to work. Its that or stave to death!
Sexual partners were hard for AIDS patients to admit to. Believe me this vector is under reported and there are many promiscuous super spreaders out their. Litterally and figuratively.
Cases up but death rates down.
It is the same virus but partial immunity exists due to IgA which is not available to test in the community. USA yesterday 162,000 cases 744 deaths associated with Covid. Average age death 80 only 6 percent of deaths have COVID only. Most were very sick from other causes. There are probably ten exposures for every one positive case. One to two million low level exposures to intestines daily and intestinal exposure is producing low level immunity even at very low level exposure. This results in millions more each day developing some low level immunity and reduced severity. Easily in USA 60 to 100 million a month could be getting low level immunity in USA. By Christmas we could see 500,000 positive cases daily with 5 million daily exposures and death rate only 500 per day with only 30 deaths a day related to COVID as sole diagnosis. Likely the second Wave will be over by mid December. Third wave if it happens will have death rate at 1 1000 to 1 3000. By January most people will not be interested in vaccine. The vaccines companies are not idiots that why they are pumping their stock now before its over.
No second wave spike. In USA probably will average only 700 deaths or less through December 31 ..But at this rate there are likely a million or more exposures per day . Pandemic ends by December 31 or January 31. There are 7000 fatalities to all causes on average in USA daily. Only 10 percent of deaths have COVID antigen. At best now only 10 percent of those who die had a recent positive COVID test. Likely only 3 to 5 percent of daily deaths are truly caused by COVID and usually occur in the infirm and elderly.
Well, this post didn’t age well so far! “Pandemic ends by December 31 or January 31.” Haha, can I quote you on that?
This post hasn’t aged well, and it’s only a week old. We’re already seeing over 2000 deaths a day. As for the 10 infections per diagnosed case, what do you make of North Dakota, with over 10% positives now? So, you would guess that 101% of the population has now been infected? Why did the cases not vanish after 80% had been infected, as theory would predict? What do you make of Clay County, Nebraska, where 54% of the population has tested positive. Have the people there on average each had 5.4 cases already?
Everywhere I go, everyone is wearing a mask. But I suspect the effectiveness of masks is overstated, because at this point we only have access to crap masks that don’t fit well — all the air comes in and goes out the sides.
I thought that was a feature?
The point of the mask is to block coughs and sneezes, and even cheap masks can do that. If all sick people have masks, the virus has a hard time spreading.
H/T Karl Denninger
Fecal Oral transmission likely does occur. The WATER that is inhaled causes drowning, The water you orally ingest prevents dehydration. The SARS-CoV-2 you eat causes IgA and immunity often without detection. The SARS-CoV-2 you breathe causes sickness without IgA protection. The CDC wants idiots following their advice
on a virus they will not discuss or debate fully openly. When CDC says trust me…..LMAO.
This chart is instructive. Click on individual states to see not only where they are but, more interestingly, where they came from.
This speaks to the fact that a virus cannot be contained and that it will eventually reach all nooks and crannies in a given population. The only variable is time.
So after all this time we’re still not protecting the infirm, as though we don’t know how or it’s too expensive. That’s where 90% of the mortality occurs.
We do know that restaurants and bars and schools are not the big spread locations that you would think. Most spread is nosocomial or at home. It would be great if we could stomp on the actually important vectors, the only effective thing to do.
It sure would be great to actually know what the weighting of various shedding and acquisition vectors (droplet, aerosol, fomite, anal/oral) is within established confidence intervals.
It seems that the real culprits might just be weddings, baby showers and large family gatherings. SO how about a drumbeat to cancel all weddings for the duration. [rubs hands together] this should generate some real fun!
Washington Wedding With More Than 300 Guests Linked To 17 Coronavirus Cases
November 17, 202010:11 AM ET
ELIE LEVINE
People still get married? Fancy that.
Public rest room high pressure toilets spread concentrated aerosols. Fecal -oral transmission. This has been known for many months.
Testing and contract tracing works, but only if done early before widespread community spread. I suspect that it’s too late for it to make much difference now. I’m anticipating that governors will be forced to lockdown again once the hospitals fill up, until the numbers come down to a manageable level. Hopefully then testing and contact tracing can make a difference.
Here in Idaho, the Governor says that he won’t impose a mask mandate, but it’s a personal responsibility to wear one. I estimate that somewhere between 10% to 20% of people at the grocery store still refuse to wear a mask no matter what – yet we have a seatbelt law here in ID.
Can someone please explain to me why wearing a mask in public is a personal responsibility, but driving a car without a seatbelt is illegal? You wearing a mask in public helps me not get infected, but you driving a car without a seatbelt only protects you, not me. Where is the logic of this?
“You wearing a mask in public helps me not get infected”
Only there is no actual empirical evidence for this common-sense speculation
But but but, he heard it on TV and read it on the internets!
The seatbelt thing protects insurance companies and enables traffic stops (when a primary offense), which are pretty lucrative in the U.S., so there is plenty of incentive on the part of those who lobby to get laws made for not using a seatbelt to be illegal. One doesn’t need to know physics to understand the substantial merits of being belted, in a more ‘free’ society it would not be illegal, just unwise.
Wearing a mask increases the wearer’s CO2 saturation and exposes them to whatever is caught in the mask for as long as they have the mask in place. It is more detrimental to the wearer than draping a length of nylon across the chest and lap, so it has to be framed as a benevolent act. Virtuous, even.
Will someone please tell EVERY F’ING HOSPITAL ON THE PLANET that masks don’t work and is placing their employees at risk?!?!? /sarc
Hospitals have N95 masks, face shields and they know how to properly fit them.
We consumers have crummy masks that stop next to nothing the size of a virus. But this is probably way beyond anything your dumb brain can understand, which is why you make dumb comments.
Not a gracious way to respond to someone answering your question, so you must be a Russian bot. (yes, that would be sarcasm)
I did not write “masks don’t work”, I observed that there are tangible consequences to wearing a mask vs. a seatbelt. You must have missed all the tear-jerking stories about medical personnel reusing masks/PPE due to shortages — do you think the concern they had for their welfare was misguided?
I apologise for my frustration and reaction.
Please understand that that I’m not wanting people to wear N95s or respirators in public. I just think it makes sense to wear something that restricts a little airflow so they aren’t spewing droplets for several feet in front of them, where I or anyone else could be standing and breathing.
It just makes sense to me. If I stand 10 feet away from a fan, I can feel the air rushing past me. If I put a blanket over the fan, I don’t feel a thing even though the blanket has tons of small holes in it.
It’s all about the airflow and potentially spewing virus-laden particles out for several feet in front of you. Is it unreasonable for people to wear some sort of facial covering? They don’t seem to have a problem in Asian countries, where they’re doing a lot better with the virus.
What am missing?
I appreciate the apology, and will offer my own for my sarcastic retort as I would prefer to see the level of discourse in the comments be elevated rather than lowered.
In contrasting seat belt use with mask wearing, seat belts are inert and wearing one does not affect the user internally. Having your face covered so that air flow is restricted does affect the level of CO2 and O2. One is also exposed to whatever material is on/in the mask for as long as you are wearing it, not just bacteria but whatever is transferred from your hands to the mask when you don or adjust it. This becomes a greater problem when masks are reused and one can presume that many folks who wear their mask on their chin when driving or walking to a building are probably getting some mileage out of their disposable masks…and likely leaving them to culture things in a nice, warm vehicle (less so in winter). This issue is more self-induced, but regardless I wanted to show how mask use is potentially deleterious to a person’s health in ways that seat belt use isn’t. As such, framing it as a personal responsibility for a public benefit makes sense to me .
You see that repeated from time to time, but doesn’t make it true. Many, many tests have show that masks do not decrease oxygen saturation in normal, healthy people.
How does that extend to the population at large? (U.S. is not a bastion of health)
Inhaled air is approx 0.04% CO2/21% O2 and exhaled air is approx 4% CO2/16% O2, so one is breathing a different mix of ‘air’ for a small portion of their breath. Perhaps I am concerned with something that is below the detection limit in the tests you refer to. Regardless, what does one make of statements like this from May versus what the CDC currently has on their website:
“A representative from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) told Reuters: “The CO2 will slowly build up in the mask over time. However, the level of CO2 likely to build up in the mask is mostly tolerable to people exposed to it. “
“Mask use and carbon dioxide
Wearing a mask does not raise the carbon dioxide (CO2) level in the air you breathe”
The air under the mask does have a higher level of CO2 than the air around you. Yet, when you breath in, most of the air you inhale is air from around you that came through the mask. If 5% of the air you inhale was from under the mask, and the air under the mask has 10% higher levels of CO2, the result is that the average CO2 level is 99.5% as high as with no mask. If the air under the mask is 20% higher, the inhaled air is 99% as high as with no mask (0.95+.8*.05).
If they are short 1% of the oxygen, they breath 1% faster, or deeper. For most healthy people, there is no difference in oxygen saturation when wearing a mask or not wearing one.
Actually, they’re like white coats. Main function is to identify staff and show that you’re clean. Studies (Randomized Control Trials) in the context of operating theaters show NO differences for teams that don’t mask. That study has been done over many times, because people don’t want to accept it.
“250,000 deaths is not a scam. It’s a tragedy.”
The political blocking of hydroxychloroquine is a tragedy. How many have died needlessly?
CA Governor Newson just blinked. Repeating the same things that didn’t work before. Must be insane?
California pulls ’emergency brake’ in bid to stop unprecedented virus surge
By JEREMY B. WHITE and VICTORIA COLLIVER
11/16/2020
OAKLAND — California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered widespread closures of indoor operations by tomorrow as the state faces its fastest surge in cases since the pandemic began, pulling what he called the “emergency brake” on 94 percent of residents.
Newsom said he was compelled to act by a case surge that is “simply without precedent in California’s pandemic history.”
“Bottom line is, we’re moving from a marathon to a sprint,” Newsom said.
That has led Newsom to accelerate the process, ensuring 41 of California’s 58 counties will have to shut churches, indoor dining and gyms until the state deems them safe for operation.
Some counties will drop multiple tiers to land in the most restrictive tier, Newsom said, and their timeline to comply will be compressed from 72 hours to 24 hours.
While the state’s approach so far has allowed for variation among counties, Newsom said a spike in cases has prevailed across the state rather than in isolated areas and has hit every age group. “We are seeing community spread broadly,” he said.
This Monday morning, I was listening to the host person on MSNBC’s MTP Daily who was interviewing someone from the Mayo clinic. That person stated that 1700 Mayo workers currently tested positive for Covid-19!
The host then asked ‘given that Mayo workers are all well versed in Covid precautions and would all follow recommendations and yet are still catching the virus, doesn’t this make regular people question if it they should follow the recommendations?’
The spokesperson hesitated slightly, as if caught by surprise by that question, then rebounded with ‘the problem MUST be coming from people’s homes!’. She then further “suggested” (lightly that people should consider wearing masks in their homes. [lol]
How about just lock yourself in a coffin for the next 2 months?
When I first heard about the need to focus on “contact tracing” my immediate thought was, “How in hell is that going to happen”? If people are infected for up to a couple of weeks before realizing (if they ever do) that they have the virus they’d better have an amazing memory to say who they were with. And to divine who those people might have been with, and so on. What a laughable solution, I thought. But maybe there was something I was missing? I could never get past the idea that contact tracing was something conjured up by the same people who want us to believe in Modern Monetary Theory.
Nope. You are 100% correct. The work to trace people quickly grows exponentially.
The Experts Don’t Know Where People Are Getting Infected. “the obvious answer to how it is spreading is Anywhere and Everywhere ” That is an obvious and imprecise answer. Which is why we need experts. To come up with as precise an answer as possible, so that policy can be made based on reality.
Where I live, we’ve had mask mandates from day one. Everywhere I go, people wear masks. And yet we’re seeing record numbers too. The most logical conclusion is wearing masks and social distancing has little to no effect.
The places without mask mandates have only recently been hit. The most logical reason their numbers are high is because of lack of immunity.
…..and you live in ? We re all frends here, no secrets !
Kid, I just viewed a video (what’s the term?, alliterative or something) with one Dr. Leput, a well known friendly commentator to a major news outlet, having a short intimate video conference with one Dr. Fauci (don’t know if I spelled his name right and I studied Italian in college!) and the latter (this is in MAY of this year) is patiently explaining to the Dr. Leput that wearing a mask is, quote: “nonsense”. Utter and complete nonsense and may be, quote, “dangerous” due to a number of enumerated problems!!!!! So, you may be on to something.
Your logic is faulty. N95 masks worn properly reduce transmission. 100% proven. Why do you think healthcare workers are so adamant about wearing them? When this started, China recalled the good masks and sent us crap. Also wearing a mask with your nose showing or completely loose is like not wearing one at all.
I note that Lew Rockwell, whoever that is, is referred to as an authoritative source of information about lockdowns.
That’s the great thing about the internet. It’s a huge intellectual buffet where we can all find support for our own particular biases.
Why do you call yourself curious when plainly you are not. Were you, you would have typed Rockwell’s name into a search engine and found out who he is.
“It’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.”
We have found that the virus is less severe than the Spring’s hysteria declared (1/10 as severe). Yet Mish keeps advocating for more tyrannical control of people.
compared to number of ‘normal’, auto deaths, abortions
250,000 is quite manageable – can I please see month breakdown instead of rolling number
Its the Great Reset.
Mish, thanks for another great article. I would humbly suggest that you consider changing the title to “Experts continue to PRETEND they don’t know where people are getting infected”. Covid is a respiratory virus. Plain and simple. We have known how those spread since the middle ages. Because of the agendas served by deceit and obfuscation (gov’t..pharma…etc) some less intelligent people still think incorrectly that wearing a poor quality mask from China or wiping their groceries with Clorox wipes will protect their health. Sad.
Actually, there are no publications weighting various transmission vectors within reliable confidence intervals for various forms of shedding and acquisition (droplet, aerosol, fomite, anal plumes). So we know that the virus cultivates tissues in the upper airways among others, but we can’t confidently point to weight of various vectors. Opinion is mostly on the basis of assumed parallels with other viruses.
This kind of research is very difficult to do with certainty, excluding unethical experiments.
the CNN and other biased media, pre election narrative told us it was ALL Trump’s fault….2 weeks post election it turns out even scientists don t know where it comes from…but Trump’s a goner and THAT’s what it was all about from the start…
Because Trump and his cronies don’t give a stuff about folk like you, they did nothing to prepare, even tho they had weeks to do so. Meanwhile a bunch of other countries have proven early lockdown and test and trace works. The good news for the US is that much of Europe and Sth America seem to be just as bad and you are under challenge for the being the absolute worst at managing public. Imagine a virus that spread as easily as this and was a bit more deadly, the US would have been locked down by fear. The response for a developed nation has been woeful
Try again, I d say, it is all nonsense, Europe did NOT pay any attention to your clown, people in Europe, in general, have been respecting the measures, look what we achieved….Maybe we should have the army on the streets like in China ? Sometimes it is better to be dead than to be subject to a repressive totalitarian regime !
Couple things:
When a bee hive is attacked, by super wasps, or a bear, all of the bees join in attacking the invader. If the bees thought their original “assigned” duties were more important than the invader and didn’t fight the hive wouldn’t survive. But they have survived for 100 million years by cooperating; the ones that didn’t are not around anymore.
I don’t see much here about the peakprosperity.com mantra for months that HCQ, Ivermectin, Vit D, NAC, Quercetin (etc.) use would go a long way toward eliminating the COVID threat. Crowd behavior and social policies wouldn’t matter as much if everyone were more resistant to the virus.
That’s a poor comparison. You can’t compare hive insects that are born to do one specific job and don’t much think on their own to human society.
People need to take care of themselves better. Eat better, exercise more, give up caffeine, get enough sleep.
I don’t know. I see a lot of bee hive like insectoid behaviour everywhere in connection with this cultivated collective delusion.
I can tell you one place spreading it are employers like mine who don’t practice social distancing. We have meetings about it then are forced to wear masks and then literally crawl all over each other for the c rest of the night. Each of us were given a new trainee this past week you literally have to be by there side and will make body contact on occasionally from a fast paced mfg environment. There are zero precautions. Suggestions? I just filed a formal complaint with osha but how long will that take? If you’d like to contact amarr entrematic in Lawrence ks and express your appreciation of spreading the virus that would be cool. They will deny it all and have already been shutdown a few times for infections.
We do wear masks but there’s no social distancing. Once the presenting over its game on. The work stations are condensed and not designed for covid.
Also our turnover is huge so there is a constant churn.
I am no longer concerned about the virus. While a tragedy, it is a minor issue compared with the threat to our democracy and to the global order from our disfunctional electoral system and from our extreme political polarization. To have a system where Biden has now won over 5.5 million more votes than Trump, but in which Trump came quite close to winning is ludicrous. It makes the election about gaming the system, instead of about the will of a majority of the people, and will be a ongoing destabilzing force. And the political polarization will continue for the foreseeable future as well… America has turned into an ugly, self centered country. I do not envy the task that Biden and his new administration are taking on, and they will need and deserve all the help and support they can get. If they fail, it is because we as Americans have failed.
Don’t worry about Biden and his administration, ; geopolitical conflicts and CNN supported military interventions here and there, will be enough to distract attention from real issues and make americans feel united….again…
Maybe you wont have to worry about Biden.
To have anything close to a true democracy you will need to replace the US political system with a parliamentary system….that will include the Marxist and Neo Nazis and then you have to get either one on your side of the equation to get anything done. I’ll stick with a Republic thank you very much.
We live in a Representative Republic. If one has not done so please educate yourself. Call it what it is and do not call it not what it is not. We do not live in a direct Democracy.
Popular vote elections and legislation are just about the worse thing you can have. People will always vote themselves more and more money from the treasury and your Democratic experiment will be gone in no time. The USA is a 50 different “states” that have “united” for a common good. The Electoral College weighting gives the smaller states a REASON to be part of the union.
Putting a mask over your mouth but not nose is useless. I’d say 50% of mask wearers do this. Also the virus can be passed through airborne water droplets up to 10 feet.
More important that ordinary masks reduce the spread of infection from the infectious rather than protect the wearer. So if folk just cover their mouth that is dumb but not so bad for everyone else as long as they don’t sneeze.
Exhaled droplets get stuck in the moth, and are wicked/evaporated. This makes it possible to blow around virus particles from your mask, effectively transporting it from one room to another. With colder temperatures, droplets form from condensation after passing the mask as a gas.
Thanks for noticing. It’s why I do it. Rarely do I get told to put the mask over my nose. Which doesn’t matter anyway because it is so loose with so much open space around the edges that the mask does next to nothing. But people feel comfortable when they see someone with a mask on.
About half the population of Nebraska has a mask mandate. The data would be about 850 for the area with a mask mandate (about the same as Rhode Island) and about 1250 for the area with no mask mandate (about the same as Utah).
Right on time. Trump is out, Biden in so the narrative has to change on Covid-19 to being uncontrollable by it’s nature rather than being caused by Trump’s policies. That means Biden’s experts know they can’t do better than Trump so they have to explain away their future ineffectiveness and failures. I really wonder if they believe people won’t notice or maybe they just don’t care.
It is now uncontrollable BECAUSE of Trump’s policies! Pandora’s box is open. Until we can put a vaccine into use, all that can be done is to mitigate. If you don’t nip it in the bud, you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Look at the successful countries. They controlled it early. Korea. Vietnam. Even China.
AMAZING that WaPo is just now posing this question that was raised 8 months ago and got many banned on MSM for it! What goes around, comes around?
Let’s get Biden on the job!
The coronavirus’s origins are still a mystery. We need a full investigation.
Opinion by Editorial Board
November 14, 2020 at 7:00 AM EST
AFTER SO much death and illness, a mystery from the first days of the novel coronavirus has yet to be solved. We still don’t understand its origins or how it became a global killer. The answers lie in China, and quite possibly beyond. The world needs a credible, impartial investigation to better prepare for future pandemics.
How is it a mystery? Just look at who benefitted (China, Globalists, Big Brother proponents) and you KNOW it was a plan to make absolutely sure Trump could not win reelection. A ridiculously large mail-in election, plus a ridiculously large turn out (due to stay at home/unemployment) were the two things that Democrats have always prayed for, but could never get. Note that I am not saying “Democrats” planned this, only that they were part of the equation, i.e they were the alternative to Trump, so they would be the default beneficiaries of the plan. An no, it does not require a huge, coordinate effort. One guy sent to wuhan with a suitcase of viles would be enough to get the ball rolling a year before the election.
Lockdowns: Immoral, Illegal, and Ineffective
By Ira Katz
November 16, 2020
To lockdown a nation to prevent the spread of an infectious disease is a medical intervention never tried in the history of the world before 2020 and then almost immediately employed throughout most of the world. This observation alone is worth in depth consideration. Here I will make the case that, considered as a medical intervention, lockdowns are immoral, illegal and ineffective.
….
Lew Rockwell.
Thank you for the much needed laugh.
Remember the brain finds patterns in noise.@Mish called what we’re seeing “waves”. Now, consider ocean waves. Anyone with a film camera: How much time have you spent watching waves and trying to predict when the big wave crashes over the rock?
Too bad that typed list of Per 100,000/Deaths/Day is clipped on the top. As we all expect and know, Switzerland, at number 9, easily beats out Cook County at 10. Gotta be masks. … No, wait. Must be race. … No, no, wait. Must be wealth. … No, no, no, wait. Must be health care system. … No, really, wait.
Waves easily explained and even predicted in advance by covid fatigue
Between Covid fatigue, and the weather. The normal pattern is for a flu to emerge in Feb-March and spread enough to be widespread, then most vanish over the summer, and then spread fast again in October-November, with peak deaths occurring between January and March. Covid seems to be following the normal pattern, except that Covid-fatigue caused fast spread in the middle of the summer, making the Fall peak earlier and stronger than the flu.
As soon as the mass protests started it was all over for containing Covid-19. The CDC’s plan for controlling pandemics depends on local authorities preventing and stopping civil disturbances for the pandemic to be contained. When local authorities in refuse to do this then there is not much one can do to stop the spread. If you don’t believe me read it here:
It’s much more problematic when the authority is holding a rally and flouting and mocking every safety protocol.
Relying on a test that isn’t diagnostic is a significant part of the problem. Designating a positive PCR test result as synonymous with the terms case or infected person is frequently going to lead to dead ends when trying to trace the source, especially when a person who never displays any symptom consistent with infection. False results (positive or negative) muddy the picture to an unknown degree.
The conventional wisdom that 40%+ asymptomatic persons who have a positive PCR test are functional Typhoid Marys has always been dubious, yet it’s still largely accepted as fact.
…especially with a person who never displays…
(am I missing an edit function?)
Also contact tracing only works to isolate source of contagion when numbers are low. In other words if someone goes to the mall and passes two people with virus you cannot say who they caught it from, or even if they caught it somewhere else from someone completely asymptomatic. So to say an app is going to resolve this is a very bad joke. What an app will do, in limited circumstance of transmission, is to round up those who might more easily have caught the virus for testing. As others point out, we know how this virus transmits in most cases, which is obviously “where” people catch it from.
Well, this whole C19 thing has been a pretty convincing demonstration of how those who like their privacy need not worry for now.
Where is the data? Where is the information?
Contact tracing? My phone and Google know where I am at 5 minute intervals or better.
Mask use: With all the surveillance cameras out there it shouldn’t be that hard to get a line on how much mask wearing there really is in a place.
Where are people? Phones could probably give a pretty good idea of how much the phone is indoors, and out, and in the car, and … And, at least Google and Apple have tried to publish such info.
I often leave mine at home on purpose
Maybe smartphones should be programmed to only function while the owner is wearing a mask. Mask use problem would be solved.
Make smartphones only function while owner is wearing a mask. Mask use problem solved.
this is the heart of the issue. there are many real reasons that normally honest people would not give accurate info on interviews to establish contacts. plus fecal-oral spread and spread by aerosol complicate things.
Yes, don’t go licking toilet seats!
Actually even a fart can be a significant shedding event.
Weather gets bad. People are inside, out of the open air, in to recycled, static air.
After 10+ months, if we can’t see the source, we’re looking in the wrong place.
Let’s go back to assuming fecal-oral and washing our d*n hands after we potty.
Would explain most infected folks not spreading it, but the existence of “super-spreaders.”
Seems silly.
The answer is obvious, it comes and goes in waves as people get cautious, then not.
It spread to rural last because of population density. But because they are the most likely dissers, they are now hit hardest.
Poop is a piss poor explanation
See recent Article on Covid “Prepare for Winter”
“Poop is a piss poor explanation”
While I love this literary work of excellence, frankly, so much of what I’ve observed doesn’t add up. I have no issue with assuming we don’t know as much as we think we do and taking precautions based on that.
I wear a mask, I social distance, I minimize my contact with those who don’t live in my home. And I wash my hands way more than I used to do and when it comes to eating food, and pretend like the days of yesteryear when I was traveling in India and living in Southeast Asia — if it ain’t piping hot and somebody in my family didn’t prepare it, I’m not eating it.
Good article on Covid “Prepare for Winter”
Masks themselves are one likely infection vector. Imagine walking around in a mask for couple of hours sampling and collecting everything on its filtering surface. Then you remove the mask and will become into contact with everything on the wrong side of the shield, at a go. Removing a mask and discarding it safely is a special procedure in itself, not easily taught and if I look what “decision-makers” propose, not even a general knowledge.
What I know is, that Lithuanians and many other countries wore masks in a disciplined manner since summer, and they have steeper increase in infections, than some of their neighbours that did not. So far much of it is still a guess of the most loud-speaking, not the ones with the experience.
Hmmm, so I shouldn’t be wearing the same cheap $1 store mask for months at a time?
Unless you’ve had it and are now immune. But not to other bacteria and fungi you’re cultivating in your mask. Many of the autopsies on Covid deaths revealed they were full of fungi or germs following the collapse of their immune function. Most victims of the Spanish flu died of opportunistic infections for which they had no drugs (antibiotica and anti-fungicides) at that time.
SEWAGE it’s the Damned SEWAGE https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Sewage+COVID++Judson+Witham&t=chromentp&atb=v1-1&ia=web